순 서 연구배경및목적 1. 러시아경기침체의지속과소비 트렌드변화배경 5. 러시아소비자인식과소비트렌드 변화사례 28. 시사점및전략 50 / 55

Global Strategy Report 16-001 Global Strategy Report 경기침체기러시아의 소비트렌드변화와시사점

2014 2015~16 2015 3.7% - (1): - (2): - (3): - : :

Ⅰ 연구배경및목적 1 연구배경 2014-2014 7-2014 - IMF, 2015 GDP 3.7% 2014 2 - - 1 -

- - -. -. 2000-2008. -. - 2 -

2 연구목적과추진방향 - - KOTRA - - - - 3 -

- KOTRA - -. - - 4 -

Ⅱ 러시아경기침체의지속과소비트렌드변화배경 1 경기침체장기화와국제환경. - 2015 2/4 2016 1 76.3-30 2016 1 22 83 / ( ) 2015 1 61.7 2015 2 64.6 2015 3 60.2 2015 4 52.9 2015 5 50.6 2015 6 54.5 2015 7 57.1 2015 8 65.2 2015 9 66.8 2015 10 63.1 2015 11 65.0 2015 12 69.7 2016 1 76.3-5 -

- - 2015 12 12.9% 2016 1 9.8% 2015 3.7%( ) - 2015 4.1%(1/4 ), -4.6%(2/4 ), -2.2%(3/4 ), -3.7%(4/4 ) - 2015 12 15.3% 11 13.1% 4.5% 11 (-3.5%) - 2016 50 3%. - (privatization) 2016 2/4-6 -

. 2016 1 2017 60-2014 3 2015 2 - EIA, WTI 2016 1 33.1 / ( ) 2015 1 $48.5 2015 2 $57.9 2015 3 $46.6 2015 4 $41.9 2016 1 $33.1 2016 2 $36.0 2016 3 $39.0 2016 4 $42.0 2017 1 $44.0 2017 2 $47.7 2017 3 $52.0 2017 4 $56.3-7 -

, - 對 4 2016 100 -,, 2014 3/4 - - 2016 1 67% - (UAE),, - 8 -

주요산유국의에너지보조금 구분 보조금 1인당보조금 GDP에서보조금평균비율 (%) 금액 (USD/ 年 ) 비중 (%) 러시아 19.6 277 2.1 카자흐스탄 31.9 309 2.5 아제르바이잔 23.6 154 2.0 우크라이나 21.9 142 4.9 우즈베키스탄 58.8 293 14.3 투르크메니스탄 68.4 1,474 16.3 베네수엘라 93.1 1,017 15.2 리비아 77.9 1,188 18.0 이란 82.0 994 19.3-9 -

- -. -, GDP 2.1% -, - 1 9.9%, 13.8%, 22.1%, 30.2%. - 10 -

1 2.0% (reserve fund) 同 - 2008 1,370 2011 252. - (National Wealth Fund). - - - 3% (World Bank) (African Development Bank) 2016 1 35 - CIS 2015 12 2016 1 (IMF) 40-11 -

국부펀드 (SWF, Sovereign Wealth Fund) 순위국가펀드명 자산 ( 십억 USD) 재원 1 노르웨이 Government Pension Fund Global 824.9 상품 2 UAE-Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Investment Authority 773 상품 3 중국 China Investment Corporation 746.7 비상품 4 사우디아라비아 SAMA Foreign Holdings 632.3 상품 5 쿠웨이트 Kuwait Investment Authority 592 상품 6 중국 SAFE Investment Company 547 비상품 7 중국 ( 홍콩 ) Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio 417 비상품 8 싱가포르 Government of Singapore Investment Corporation 344 비상품 9 카타르 Qatar Investment Authority 256 상품 10 중국 National Social Security Fund 236 비상품 11 싱가포르 Temasek Holdings 193.6 비상품 12 UAE-Dubai Investment Corporation of Dubai 183 상품 13 UAE-Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Investment Council 110 상품 14 호주 Australian Future Fund 95 상품 15 한국 Korea Investment Corporation 91.8 비상품 16 카자흐스탄 Samruk Kazyna JSC 85.1 비상품 17 카자흐스탄 Kazakhstan National Fund 77 상품 18 러시아 National Wealth Fund 73.5 상품 19 UAE-Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Company 66.3 상품 19 UAE-Abu Dhabi Mubadala Investment Company 66.3 상품 - 12 -

- -,, - - - 13 -

2 경기침체기의사회현상과소비행태변화. -,. - 1998 2.6% 7.3% 1997 11.0 2.6 8.2 9.8 1998 ( ) 13.8 7.3 10.4 12.9 -. - 14 -

1998-1990 GDP 1997 0.9% 1998 ( 4.9%) - 1998 3,430 380 2.6% ( ) (%) 1 2 1997 30.5 20.8 1998 ( ) 34.3 23.4 2007 18.8 13.3 2008 ( ) 19.0 13.4 ЧИСЛЕННОСТЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ С ДЕНЕЖНЫМИ ДОХОДАМИ НИЖЕ ВЕ ЛИЧИНЫ ПРОЖИТОЧНОГО МИНИМУМА И ДЕФИЦИТ ДЕНЕЖНОГО ДОХОДА Росстат 1998~1999 - (James K. Galbraith et al.) 1990 1999 39% 1) 1) James K. Galbraith, Ludmila Krytynskaia, and Qifei Wang, The Experience of Rising - 15 -

-, 2008 2 - - 2007 1,880 13.3% 2008 13.4% 2008 BCG 2008 2008 (trading-up) (trading-down) - Inequality in Russia and China during the Transition, The European Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2004, pp. 90-91. - 16 -

-,,,,,. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 - (, ), (,,, ), (,, ). -, (,, ), (,,, ) - 17 -

. (1):, -. 상향소비성향이강화되는소비자부문 (Taking care of me) - ( ),,, (Individual style) -,, (Connecting) -,, ( ) (Questing) -,, -,,. - 18 -

-, (Paul Flatters and Michael Willmott) (discretionary thrift) 2) -.,. - 2) Paul Flatters and Michael Willmott, Understanding the Post-Recession Consumer, Harvard Business Review, July-August, 2009, pp. 1-8. - 19 -

- 3) Pandelica Amelia and Pandelica Ionut, Consumers Reaction and Organizational Response in Crisis Context, The Journal of the Faculty of Economics, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2009, pp. 1-4. - 20 -

. - 2008 2009 McKinsey,,. 4) -, (2): (value for money) (mercurial consumption) (Lelia Voinea and Alina Filip). 5) - -, 6) - 4) McKinsey, How the recession has changed US consumer behavior, McKinsey Quarterly, December, 2009. 5) Lelia Voinea and Alina Filip, Analyzing the Main Changes in New Consumer Buying Behavior during Economic Crisis, International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2011, p. 17. 6) Ibid., p. 17. - 21 -

(mercurial consumption). - - - 22 -

- - (3): (ethnical consumption) (altruism). - -, - - - 23 -

(hybrid cars). -,.. -, 7) Chua, Wan Ying, Lee, Alvin, and Sadeque, Saalem 2010. Why do People Buy Hybrid Cars? in Proceedings of Social Marketing Forum, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Edith Cowan University, Churchlands, W. A., p. 3. - 24 -

. - 2013 1,550 10.8% 2014 1,610 11.2% ( ) (%) 3 2013 15.5 10.8 2014 ( ) 16.1 11.2 ЧИСЛЕННОСТЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ С ДЕНЕЖНЫМИ ДОХОДАМИ НИЖЕ ВЕ ЛИЧИНЫ ПРОЖИТОЧНОГО МИНИМУМА И ДЕФИЦИТ ДЕНЕЖНОГО ДОХОДА Росстат - 2015 2014 5 2 8) 42.9% - 2009 2014 2 42.8% 0.1% 8) (Euromonitor International) 5 2 Social Class D, 15 50~100% - 25 -

2030 2 - - 2009 2014 3.9% 2014 19,696-2015~2030 1.2% - 26 -

- 2014 10% 32.4% 10% 2% - 2009~2014 27.1% 29.1% 2% 2030 28.9% -, 2015~2030 1.8% - 27 -

Ⅲ 러시아소비자인식과소비트렌드변화사례 1 소비자인식의변화 9). - 2/4 8 (14%) - (social mood index) 5 73 8 61 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 13 12 16 16 18 15 15 11 66 68 66 62 65 68 65 67 12 10 10 12 10 9 12 14 4 4 3 4 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 Index(pts) 64 67 70 64 73 72 66 61 Вциом 9) 46 1,600 2015 7-8. - 28 -

- 8 - (economic situation assessment index) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8, 8 19 18 18 18 20 18 16 60 53 52 56 58 56 54 55, 29 27 28 23 22 22 26 27 3 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 Index(pts) 39 45 42 51 55 54 46 44 Вциом -, 7-8 - (social expectation index) - 29 -

15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 11 16 22 25 33 25 27 21 31 30 30 30 28 23 25 25 50 46 40 36 31 44 40 44 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 10 Index(pts) -70-60 -48-41 -26-42 -39-47 Вциом - - (country s development vector index) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8, 41 48 51 47 50 51 45 42 41 36 32 37 37 36 41 42, 13 13 13 13 12 10 11 14 5 3 4 3 2 3 3 2 Index(pts) 69 71 70 71 75 77 75 70-30 -

Вциом. - 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 23 23 26 29 28 24 28 24 61 65 59 54 57 61 56 61 6 4 6 8 6 6 7 7 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 5 3 3 4 2 3 3 2 Вциом -,. - - 31 -

15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16 14 14 17 15 15 15 14 69 68 67 63 68 70 69 69 14 18 18 19 17 15 16 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 <1 <1 Вциом - 2/4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 27 29 35 31 35 37 26 28 40 42 40 43 43 42 50 44 17 18 14 14 10 12 14 15 17 12 11 12 11 9 10 13 Вциом. - 32 -

-. - (consumer confidence index) 2014 9 44 2015 8 32 - (credit confidence index) 2014 9 34 2015 8 23 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 44 30 28 26 27 33 33 32 32 34 21 20 22 19 24 22 22 23 Вциом - 2015, 6 1 10% - 1%, 5% - 33 -

6 Вциом July, 2015 32 39 29 January, 2015 22 38 40 July, 2015 31 39 30 January, 2015 21 34 45. - -,. - 2015. - 34 -

2 경기불황기소비시장주요트렌드. 2012-2013 2014-2015, 34% 6,565. -, GDP 2014 53.7% 2015 51.2% 2012 2013 2014 2015(f) 2016(f) (bil.usd) 1,001.0 1,088.3 994.8 656.5 701.7 GDP (%) (%) 50.0 52.4 53.7 51.2 51.8 7.33 8.72-8.59-34.00 6.88 (USD) 17,982 19,463.7 17,713.8 11,642.3 12,410.4 2016 2015-2016 7,000 GDP 0.6% - 35 -

2016 1 2016 - (Euromonitor) (sales boom) - -,, -,. (1): - 36 -

- 2015 4%, 9.5%, 12.9% - 2016 2 35.7% - 39% - 2014 3.8% 2015 4.4% - fashion consulting group - 9% 60% - 37 -

2014 2015 ( ) 10% 10% 39% 30% 51% 60%. - 2014 11 2015 1 33%, 44% - 2014-2015 Chevignon, Gerry Webber, Sepalla. SPA - H&M, Monki, Uniqlo, Forever 21 - Cortefiel, Superdry, Violetta by Mango - 38 -

. - 2015 81% 2014 4% - - TNS global Aliexpress 1,700. - 39 -

. 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 11.5 12.5 8.1 10.6 16.9 16.5 16.7 18.1 5.0 13.6 18.0 9.2 8.5 6.6 11.6 20.5 17.3 15.5 6.3 10.6 12.9 14.0 11.9 3.9 8.4 16.9 18.2 11.8 13.8 3.1-21.5-29.2-22.1-9.1-8.7-2014-2015-2010 -, - 40 -

-, 2015 3 26% 6% 2015 - Tsum 2014. (2):. - (Search Engine Optimization) 2008, 2014-2009 2014, 2, - 2015 1, TV, 30%, - 41 -

9% - (Yandex), (Mail.ru), (Google) -,, -, - 42 -

2019-2015 - -,,, - 43 -

: - ( VK) - A,, -, VK VK e-commerce, VK 2015 9 Товары В Контакте Товары В Контакте. - 40 650 200-44 -

. (3): ( ) - Direct Info, 2015 4% 5.5% - Life News, 60%, - ROMIR 2016 3-45 -

45% 2012 13% -, - 2015 358 - Evalar. -, 2014 79%, 58% - 58%, 44%. - 46 -

- (Lavka). - - - 47 -

(SIBERICA). - 2015 12, - 2018. - 2020 10~15% - 48 -

러시아유기농시장현황 ㅇ 0.1% 96% -,,,. ㅇ,,,, 2014 8 ㅇ BIO 45% ㅇ. Vedomosti news - 49 -

Ⅳ 시사점및전략. -. - - -. - 50 -

- - - - -. - 51 -

. - Ozon.ru, - M.Video. - - Aliexpress. - 2000-52 -

-. - -. - 53 -

- - - 극동지역의유리온실농장 (Surazhevka) - 100% - 18ha 3 - - 54 -

Вциом Росстат - 55 -

작성자 글로벌전략지원단 모스크바무역관 박지원전문위원 최민희과장 Global Strategy Report 16-001 경기침체기러시아의소비트렌드변화와시사점 발행인발행처발행일주소전화홈페이지 김재홍 KOTRA 2016년 4월서울시서초구헌릉로 13 (06792) 02) 1600-7119( 대표 ) www.kotra.or.kr ISBN : 979-11-87219-24-8(95320)