: :,,,, 200 1. 8.
. 1 1. 1 2. 6. 11 1. (1989 1991) 11 1) 11 2) 11 2. 14 1) 14 2) 17 3) 19 4) 20 3. 30. 35 1. 36 2. 39 3. 40. 41 1. 42 2. 44
3. 50 4. 51 5. 52. 54 1. 55 2. 65
< 1> 4 < 2> 9 < 3> 10 < 4>, 10 < 5> 15 < 6> (2000) 21 < 7> 26 < 8> 26 < 9> 29 < 10> 31 < 11> 47 < 12> 48 < 13> 49 < 1> 53 < 2> 67
I. 1. - IMF - IMF 1998 2, '98., 2000 5 -,, 2000 10 23 -,, 2,000-1 -
-, -, 2001 7,, 5 ( ),. - 2 -
(2000. 10. 23 ). 2,500 21,., 2000 5 17. 2000 10 21,,., 2,000. 40 5,...... = = 1. 2,497, 2,000. 1., ( ). 1.,. 1. 40 5. 1.. 1., 5 5,. 1.. - 3 -
< 1> - 44-7 40 - ( - ) - - -, - - - - - 1 - - (,, ) - - 15 1 10-25% - ( ) - 4 -
- - 1 - - - - ( ) - - - 1 : ( ), 2000 ( ) - 5 -
2. -.. - ( ; ) -. -,,,,,, 600 1,000, - 1/4 OECD.(< 2> ) - 2000, 400. - 6 -
- OECD 1,400 1,800 1993 99 1976. - OECD, 40%.(< 3>, < 4>), - - - IMF.. - -. - 70-7 -
40, -,,, -,. - II, ( ), - III - 8 -
- IV - V < 2> - - : 1973 1979 1983 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1,904 1,852 1,869 1,876 1,867 1,866 1,860 1,864 1,867 1,836 1,783 1,790 1,780 1,787 1,777 2,064 2,066 2,067 2,075 2,088 1,837 1,787 1,728 1,730 1,737 1,730 1,727 1,904 1,806 1,712 1,657 1,614 1,608 1,605 1,604 1,616 1,557 1,545 1,546 1,554 1,556 1,868 1,745 1,705 1,593 1,534 1,523 1,524 1,531 1,535 1,832 1,860 1,839 1,817 1,873 1,722 1,699 1,674 1,635 1,636 1,640 1,648 2,201 2,126 2,095 2,031 1,884 1,892 1,864 1,842 2,734 2,514 2,484 2,467 2,436 2,390 2,497 1,833 1,901 1,927 1,878 1,921 1,820 1,843 1,838 1,823 1,825 1,842 1,514 1,485 1,432 1,414 1,407 1,399 1,399 1,395 2,022 1,912 1,824 1,814 1,810 1,812 1,833 1,827 1,557 1,516 1,518 1,546 1,613 1,623 1,625 1,628 1,634 1,636 1,585 1,579 1,579 1,929 1,815 1,713 1,767 1,740 1,738 1,736 1,731 1,720 1,924 1,905 1,882 1,943 1,952 1,951 1,966 1,955 1,976 : OECD, Employment Outlook, 2000. - 9 -
< 3> : 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 2716.8 2733.6 2730.0 2706.0 2733.6 2704.8 2661.6 2564.4 2514.0 2329.2 2324.4 2320.8 2312.4 2320.8 2298 2287.2 2222.4 2176.8 386.4 409.2 409.2 393.6 412.8 406.8 374.4 342.0 337.2 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2498.4 2478.0 2476.8 2470.8 2484.0 2467.2 2436 2390.4 2497.2 2175.6 2166.0 2175.6 2265.6 2172.0 2170.8 2155.2 2149.2 2199.6 322.8 313.2 301.2 300.0 312.0 295.2 280.8 241.2 297.6 :, (2000) :, 12 :. < 4>, 52(104) 16 12 10 20 90 100 (142 152) 104 15-10 20 104 8-24 104 9 12-24 104 11-30 78 22-7 30 52 11-7 14 129 139 136 137 140 145 107 130 70 77 : 1) 2001 2 84 ( ) 2), ( ) 2 3) ( ) : - 10 -
II. 1. (1989 1991) 1) 1953 1 48 1 8 1989 3 29 1989 1991 3-1 48 46-2 1990 10 1 300 44-3 1991 10 1 44 2) (2001). 1) - 1989 1991 48 44 -,,,, - 4 1),, -, 2001, KLI 14 1, PP 151 170. - 11 -
4 1.9, 3.8% - 48 44 8.3% 0.55 - ( 0.04 ) 4.7% - 2 (4.2%) 1 1.7% - 300 44 2 3.0% - 1% 0.57%. 10.1% - 13.3% 3.8% 10% - 1-1985 1988 ( ) 1985, 1989 1992, 1993 1996 ( ) - 1989 1992 8.2% 3.9% 12.6% 9.0% 10.7% - 12 -
- 5.7% 4.7% 2.0% -, ( 5.2% ) 0.5% 13.7%, 1.9%. - 13 -
2. 1). - 2010.(< 5> ), 40 5. - 48 44. ( 44 ) (40, 5 ) - ( ). -,, - 14 -
-,,. -,, - (moonlighting). -,,. < 5> :, % 1995 2000 2005 2010 45,093 47,275 49,123 50,618 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2,182 1,848 1,495 0.97 0.78 0.61 : (2000). -, - 15 -
-.... -. -.,, - (annualization), 2 1 1-16 -
-,. - ( ) -,. 2) 5 40 9.1% 5.2% - 2000 1,314 68 -, - 5-17 -
.. -.,. -, 24. - 18 -
3). - -,. - 5, 40., - 1 20 (fatigue effect) - (monitoring), 1 6 5-19 -
1 - (labor hoarding) 4).,, 3,,. - w s, H s, A,, H,,, L W (1). W = w s H s + A + ( 1 + ) w s ( H - H s ) + w s H s + ( 1 - ) 8w s L - - - - - - - - (1) -. 2000 5 < 6>. - 20 -
. -, 2000 10 < > 5 ( 44 / 40 / ). < 6> (2000) 2000 2000 6 ( / ) 1,182 1,189 1,381 902 ( / ) n.a. 1,076 1,257 805 ( / ) n.a. 113 124 96 ( / ) 133 125 62 209 ( / ) 352 270 381 243 ( / ) 41.7 42.4 42.8 41.8 ( / ) 5.4 6.6 2.1 10.7 ( ) n.a. 5.6 5.9 5.3. -, 2000 10 5 ( 44 / 40 / ). - - 21 -
- -. -. ( ) -. 50%. -, -. -, 1 18 3 1 22 - (5.6 ) 26 19-22 -
- -. -. < 6>. - 90.5% 226 1,181,866 0.905 / 226 = 4,732. - 246,061 (4,732 (44 8) = 246,061) -, 4,732 6,152 30% (4,732 (44 8)/ 40 = 6,152), -, 56,784 (4,732 (52-40) = 56,784) - (4,732) - 23 -
-,. -, 40, -, 2, -, 4-1> 6,152 : 150% 9,228-2> 4,732 : 7,098-2000 17.37, 2 26.05, 4 37.75 ( ). < 7>., 30% - 2.1%, 2 6.9%, 4 11.7% - 24 -
-, 4 11.7% 100% 2.1% -, - - 0.9%, 2 2.9%, 4 6.6% - 6.6%. -,, 0 2 2.9%.,.(< 8> ) - -. -,, - 25 -
( ; ), 2 3% - < 7> I ( ) (, ) (, ) (, ) ( ) (%) 1,181,866 123,301 352,422 299,929 52,493 19,891 0 1,181,866 160,291 349,797 299,929 49,868 20,303 2.1 1 2 1,181,866 240,437 349,797 299,929 49,868 21,265 6.9 4 1,181,866 320,582 349,797 299,929 49,868 22,227 11.7 0 1,181,866 123,301 338,289 299,929 38,360 19,721-0.9 2 2 1,18 1,866 184,95 1 338,289 299,9 29 38,36 0 20,46 1 2.9 4 1,181,866 246,602 338,289 299,929 38,360 21,201 6.6 < 8> II ( ) ( ) (%) 2.1 10.7 21,968 16,364 19,729 2.1 2.1 10.7 10.7 22,404 17,583 20,470 2.0 7.5 3.8 2.1 2.1 10.7 12.7 18,307 20,760 11.9 5.2 1 2.1 2.1 10.7 14.7 19,032 21,051 16.3 6.7 2.1 4.1 10.7 12.7 23,534 18,307 21,437 7.1 11.9 8.7 2.1 4.1 10.7 14.7 19,032 21,728 16.3 10.1 2.1 2.1 10.7 10.7 22,075 16,658 19,902 0.5 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.1 10.7 12.7 17,2 15 20,125 5.2 2.0 2 2.1 2.1 10.7 14.7 17,772 20,349 8.6 3.1 2.1 4.1 10.7 12.7 22,945 17,215 20,646 4.4 5.2 4.6 2.1 4.1 10.7 14.7 17,772 20,870 8.6 5.8-26 -
. 1 1,. -. (,, ) 1 W, L C, T L C,, E (2). L C = ( 1 + ) W TL C = L C E = ( 1 + ) W E - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (2) (3). lim t 0 TL C TL C = lim t 0 ( 1 + )( W E t + E W t + 1 ) ( 1 + ) E t W t = W + E - - - (3) (total man- hour). - -, ( ). - (3) - 27 -
( ) - 4 -, 4 1 48 (44 + 4 ) - 4 8.3% ( 8.3% )(4/48 x 100 = 8.333), - 2 4.2% (4.2% ), -.(0% ) (3) < 9> - 1 10.6 11.7%P - 2 6.6 7.4%P - 4 2, 2 7.2% -. - 28 -
. - 5.6. < 9> ( ) ( ) 19,891 0 20,303 2.1 8.3 10.6 1 2 21,265 6.9 4.2 11.4 4 22,227 11.7 0.0 11.7 0 19,721-0.9 8.3 7.4 2 2 20,46 1 2.9 4.2 7.2 4 21,201 6.6 0.0 6.6-29 -
3. 5,,, 2010 3 4% - 9.1% - (= x ) ( ) ( ),. (< 10> ) y* = F (K, NxHxT ; E) - y*, K, N ( ), H, T, E - y* = K 0.6 (NHT ) 0.4, 100 44 10 181-30 -
. < 10> (N) (T ) (H) (K) y=k 0.6 (NHT ) 0.4 ( ) 10.0 44.0 1.00 100.0 180.9 (1.000) 0.164 (1.000) i. 10.0 40.0 1.00 100.0 174.1 (0.963) 0.174 (1.059) ii. 10.00 40.0 1.00 90.9 164.4 0.164 1.38 28.0 0.95 a 9.1 15.9 0.164 11.38 38.5 0.99 100.0 180.3 (0.997) 0.164 (1.000) iii. 10.00 40.0 1.00 95.5 169.3 0.169 1.38 28.0 0.95 9.1 16.4 0.169 11.38 38.5 0.99 105.0 b 185.7 (1.027) 0.169 (1.030) iv. 10.00 40.0 1.05 c 95.0 172.7 0.173 1.38 28.0 1.00 c 10.0 16.7 0.173 11.38 38.5 1.04 c 105.0 189.3 (1.047) d 0.173 (1.050) : 1 1. - 31 -
44 40 (i) - 5.9% 181 174 3.7%. -, ( ),,. - 50% ( ). - (i). - (ii) (28 ). -. - 1.4. - 0.3% 5% (a). (iii) - 32 -
- 5% (b) 3.0%. - 185.7 2.7% (iv) ( 4 1 20 ) (c) 5% 4.7%(d) - 5% (iii) 2% 2%,. - ( ). - (efforts). - 6 5. - 6 5 ( ) 6 5. - ( ) 5,,. - 33 -
-. - 34 -
III. - - -, - 2 3 -. - - 35 -
1. 5 - - - - - - 6 1. -. - 36 -
( ) -,, - - 2 4 1-1 - - - 37 -
- -. -. - - -,, - - 38 -
2. - - -.. -. -.,. - - - 39 -
3., -. - -. -.,,,. -,. - 40 -
IV., (life style) - -,,,., - -,,. - 41 -
1. - - (.), (, ) - -. - - - - 42 -
. - - - 43 -
2., -, -., < 11> - 32% 17% 15%P(3 30 ) 28% 13%P, - 1. - 4%P, 1%P( 14.4 ), 2%P, 5%P TV, 1%P 2) - 3%P, 1%P, 3%P, 1%P, 4%P, 2%, 1%P, 1% 0. 2). 31% 35% 4%P. - 44 -
-, ( ),,, 0, -, -, TV, -, -, -.(< 12> ) - TV 1, 2 ( 2, 3 ) 12 9 5, 6-3. - TV,, 1, 2, 3-3, 4, 3, 4. -. - 45 -
- 35.9% 1 (16.8%),,.(< 13> ) (,, ). -,. - (, Club, ) - 46 -
< 11> : % 42 41 42 42 45 45 3 1 3 1 32 3 1 35 34 7 6 7 6 7 7 3 4 3 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 28 28 24 17 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 9 1 10 2 12 0 2 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 13 18 15 26 19 3 3 3 3 5 4 8 6 9 7 13 10 (TV, video ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 3 2 4 2 4 2 8 6 8 6 8 6 0 1 0 1 0 1 :, 1999 1, 2000. - 47 -
< 12> : %, ( ) 10.1 (8) TV 62.7 (1) PC 12.5 (7) 3.4 (11) 3.2 (12) 8 (9) 15.1 (6) 32.3 (4) 22.8 (5) 33.5 (3) 50.7 (2) 3.7 (10) 9.5 (9) 63 (1) 16.9 (6) 6.4 (10) 2.4 (12) 13.1 (8) 18.8 (5) 33.3 (3) 2 1.5 (4) 16.6 (7) 52.6 (2) 3 (11) 10.7 (7) 62.3 (1) 8.3 (8) 0.6 (12) 3.9 (10) 3.2 (11) 11.6 (6) 3 1.4 (4) 24 (5) 49.4 (2) 48.8 (3) 4.4 (9) 5.7 (10) 56 (1) 8 (8) 5.8 (9) 2.4 (12) 13.9 (7) 25.7 (5) 29.6 (4) 33.1 (3) 2 1.8 (6) 51.6 (2) 3.3 (11) 4.3 (9) 62 (2) 3.7 (11) 5.2 (8) 2.2 (12) 6 (7) 14.2 (6) 29.7 (4) 21 (5) 36.6 (3) 62.3 (1) 3.9 (10) 2.6 (9) 59.7 (3) 2.5 (10) 1.6 (12) 1.9 (11) 3.1 (8) 8.8 (6) 23.4 (4) 2 1 (5) 63.1 (1) 62.7 (2) 3.6 (7) 15.6 (7) 6 1.8 (1) 15.1 (8) 4.3 (10) 3.3 (11) 13.8 (9) 23.6 (5) 32.8 (3) 29.5 (4) 22.6 (6) 47.6 (2) 2.8 (12) 13.6 (7) 62 (1) 9.5 (8) 2.8 (12) 2.9 (11) 6.5 (9) 14.7 (6) 34.9 (3) 20.5 (5) 33.7 (4) 56.4 (2) 3.2 (10) 7.8 (8) 63.9 (1) 8 (7) 4.1 (10) 2.5 (12) 4.7 (9) 11.3 (6) 3 1.2 (4) 17.4 (5) 39.9 (3) 59.8 (2) 3.2 (11) : 100% :, 2000, 2001-48 -
< 13> : %, ( ) 3 1.6 32.2 30.9 3 1.1 32.9 30.2 3 1.0 25.8 25.8 68.4 6 7.8 69.1 68.9 6 7.1 69.8 69.0 74.2 74.2 35.9 34.5 3 7.2 24 35.5 32.5 28.6 42.9 52.6 (1) (1) (1) (2) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) 16.8 (2) 18.4 (2) 15.2 (2) 3 1.4 (1) 19.7 (2) 26.2 (2) 25.3 (2) 19.1 (2) 10.7 (2) 3.6 (5) 4.2 (3) 3.1 (5) 6 (3) 2.8 (5) 1.9 (5) 5.9 (3) 3.6 (3) 2.4 (5) 2.2 2.3 2 1.2 1.5 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.4 (6) (6) (6) (7) (6) (6) (5) (5) (6) 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.7 1 0.6 (7) (7) (7) (6) (7) (7) (6) (7) (7) 3.8 3.4 4.2 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.8 (4) (5) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (3) (3), 4.5 3.5 5.4 1.7 3.5 3.6 1.4 1.9 2.5 (3) (4) (3) (5) (3) (3) (7) (5) (4) 0.4 (8) 0.2 (8) 0.5 (8) 0.3 (8) 0.2 (8) 0.2 (8) 0.2 (8) 0.1 (8) 0.3 (8) :, 2000, 2001-49 -
3. -. 0. 5. - 6.,. -. - 50 -
4.,, -. - < 11> 0 -. - 51 -
5. -,, TV.,.. -,,,. -, - 52 -
< 1> - 53 -
V.. - - -.. -. -,,. - 54 -
1. (1989 1992) - 1.9, 3.8% ( ) - 4.7% - 10.1% ( ) (1985 1988) (1993 1996) - 1989 1992 8.2% 3.9% 12.6% 9.0% 10.7%. - 5.7% 4.7% 2.0% - - - - - - 55 -
- -, - - - ( ) - 40 9.1% 5.2% - 2000 1,314 68 5.. - 56 -
. - - (fatigue effect), - (monitoring) - 1-2000 5 5.6 ( ) 1,181,866, ( ) 123,301, ( ) 352,422, 299,929, 52,493 ( 4,732 ) - - (50%) - ;, 1 18 3 1 22 - ( ) - ( ) - 57 -
( 6 ) - - 2-4 (< 7> ) 30% - 2.1%, 2 6.9%, 4 11.7% -, 4 11.7% 100% 2.1% - - - 0.9%, 2 2.9%, 4 6.6% -, 6.6%. -,, 0 2 2.9% - 58 -
., 2 3% (,, ) (total man- hour). - 1 48 (44 + 4 ) - 4 8.3% ( 8.3% )(4/48 x 100 = 8.333), 2 4.2% (4.2% ),.(0% ) 1 10.6 11.7%P (< 9> ) 2 6.6 7.4%P - 59 -
- 2, 2 7.2% - - - 5.6. 5,,, y* = K 0.6 (NHT ) 0.4 - y*, K, N ( ), H, T, ( ), ( i ) - 5.9% 181 174 3.7% 5% ( ii ) - 60 -
- (0.3% ). 5% 5% ( iii ) - 3.0%, 185.7 2.7% 5% 5% ( iv ) - 4.7%,. - ( ). - -, - - - 61 -
-,.,,, -. -. - - 62 -
- -, ;, TV,,, (< 11> ) - (,, ). - 5. -. -,, -. - 63 -
- - - (,,, ). - 64 -
2.,. - ( ),. -,,,, -,, -,,,. - 65 -
5-6 (,,.) -,, (, Consulting, ) - 66 -
< 2> - - (, ) - - - - - - ( ) - - - ( ) -,, - - - - ( ) - ( ) - 6 (, ) - (,,, ) - ( ) - - 67 -