한국인이보는 2019 년 - Gallup International End of Year Survey 다국가비교조사 세계조사개요 2018 년 10~12 월세계 50 개국성인총 48,745 명조사 27 개국 28,063 명면접조사 / 7 개국 5,922 명전화조사 / 16 개국 14,760 명온라인조사 한국조사개요 2018 년 11 월 7~30 일전국 ( 제주제외 ) 만 19 세이상남녀 1,500 명면접조사, 표본오차 ±2.5% 포인트 (95% 신뢰수준 ) 2 단계층화집락지역무작위추출후표본지점내성 연령별할당, 응답률 : 2( 총접촉 5,661 명중 1,500 명응답완료 ) 조사내용 새해국가경제전망 ( 한국만 ), 살림살이전망, 세계평화전망 Gallup International Association(GIA) 는조지갤럽박사가 1947년설립한국제조사기구로, 올해 72주년을맞이했습니다. End of Year Survey는 GIA 회원사들이 1977년부터매년말공동실시하는조사로, 한국갤럽은 1979년부터 40년간참여해왔습니다. 한국갤럽 한국인이보는 2019 년 - Gallup International/WIN End of Year Poll 다국가비교조사결과 - 1
한국인의새해 ( 내년 ) 경기, 살림살이전망 : 1979~2018 년 한국인의새해 ( 내년 ) 경기, 살림살이전망 : 1979~2018 년 조사시기 경기전망살림살이전망좋아질것나빠질것비슷할것좋아질것나빠질것비슷할것 1979년 49% 12% 11% 60% 13% 12% 1980년 49% 2 14% 51% 11% 1981년 38% 30% 44% 15% 34% 1982년 48% 1 30% 45% 8% 41% 1983년 69% 1 6 5% 25% 1984년 43% 43% 5 9% 29% 1985년 41% 18% 33% 51% 15% 30% 1986년 48% 41% 5 3 1987년 44% 19% 14% 58% 8% 25% 1988년 60% 12% 15% 62% 25% 1989년 40% 32% 22% 5 10% 1990년 25% 48% 15% 43% 23% 1991년 21% 53% 1 39% 22% 32% 1992년 30% 35% 15% 43% 1993년 45% 18% 25% 45% 9% 40% 1994년 45% 1 29% 4 9% 40% 1995년 34% 2 49% 12% 3 1996년 19% 40% 35% 2 22% 4 1997년 1 60% 19% 1 44% 35% 1998년 38% 24% 30% 43% 1999년 42% 1 38% 32% 1 49% 2000년 73% 1 1 43% 3 2001년 21% 41% 32% 25% 2 44% 2002년 22% 5 1 33% 30% 32% 2003년 22% 4 29% 30% 2 40% 2004년 9% 62% 2 14% 45% 39% 2005년 20% 3 41% 2 25% 4 2006년 10% 51% 35% 23% 30% 45% 2007년 25% 43% 29% 20% 4 2008년 9% 64% 24% 14% 44% 39% 2009년 2 19% 52% 2 15% 5 2010년 21% 2 50% 2 20% 53% 2011년 11% 43% 43% 18% 52% 2012년 12% 40% 4 1 2 54% 2013년 21% 24% 54% 21% 1 61% 2014년 15% 3 48% 20% 25% 54% 2015년 1 34% 49% 21% 25% 54% 2016년 4% 6 11% 42% 45% 2017년 20% 29% 49% 19% 22% 58% 2018년 11% 53% 3 11% 41% 48% 한국갤럽 * 매년 한국인이말전국보는 ( 제주 2019 제외년 ) 성인 - Gallup 1,500International/WIN 명면접조사결과. 한국갤럽 End of Year www.gallup.co.kr Poll 다국가비교조사결과 - 2 한국인의새해 ( 내년 ) 경기전망 : 1979~2018 년 100 75 50 25 한국인의살림살이전망 100 75 50 25 49 내년경기좋아질것나빠질것 (%) 69 60 내년살림살이좋아질것나빠질것 (%) 60 66 62 45 16 7 9 9 4 11 0 1979 '83 '88 '93 '97 2000 '04 '08 '16 2018 45 49 16 17 14 14 11 11 0 1979 '83 '88 '93 '95 '97 2000 '04 '08 '16 2018 서울올림픽 IMF 닷컴버블붕괴 세계금융위기 국정농단파문대통령탄핵조기대선 * 연도는조사시기. 매년말전국 ( 제주제외 ) 성인 1,500 명면접조사결과. 한국갤럽 www.gallup.co.kr
질문 ) 귀댁의살림살이가 2019 년인내년에어떠할것이라고보십니까? 올해보다 좋아질것, 나빠질것, 비슷할것 중에서말씀해주십시오. 2018 년 11 월 7~30 일면접조사 조사완료사례수 ( 명 ) 가중후사례수 ( 명 ) *Net Score: 순 ( 純 ) 지수, 낙관 - 비관격차 좋아질것 (1) 살림살이전망 나빠질것 (2) *50 사례미만은수치를제시하지않음. 한국갤럽 www.gallup.co.kr 비슷할것모름 / 응답거절 Net Score (1)-(2) 한국전체 1,500 1,500 11% 41% 48% 1% -30 성별 남성 749 743 12% 41% 4 0% -29 여성 751 757 9% 40% 50% 1% -31 연령별 19-29세 300 261 12% 35% 53% 0% -23 30대 300 256 15% 39% 45% 1% -24 40대 299 300 15% 41% 43% 1% -26 50대 301 300 9% 4 45% 0% -37 60대이상 300 383 5% 41% 52% 1% -36 성 / 남성 19-29세 150 137 13% 38% 49% -25 연령별 남성 30대 149 131 1 38% 45% -22 남성 40대 150 152 20% 41% 39% 1% -21 남성 50대 150 151 9% 43% 49% -34 남성 60대이상 150 172 4% 45% 49% 1% -41 여성 19-29세 150 124 11% 5 1% -20 여성 30대 151 125 13% 40% 45% 1% -27 여성 40대 149 148 11% 40% 48% 1% -29 여성 50대 151 149 9% 49% 41% 1% -40 여성 60대이상 150 212 38% 55% 1% -32 직업별 농 / 임 / 어업 27 31 - - - - - 자영업 182 192 4 4 1% -39 블루칼라 525 514 10% 38% 51% 1% -28 화이트칼라 318 297 15% 42% 43% 1% -27 가정주부 278 304 10% 44% 44% 1% -34 학생 100 88 18% 30% 52% -12 무직 / 은퇴 / 기타 70 74 4% 3 5 1% -33 지역별 서울 300 295 11% 45% 42% 2% -34 인천 / 경기 450 460 13% 48% 39% 0% -35 강원 50 46 10% 22% 68% -12 대전 / 세종 / 충청 140 160 12% 22% 6 1% -10 광주 / 전라 170 151 15% 15% 70% 0 대구 / 경북 150 152 4 48% 0% -40 부산 / 울산 / 경남 240 235 5% 50% 45% 1% -45 생활 상 / 중상 70 68 13% 35% 52% -22 수준별중 820 803 12% 40% 48% 1% -28 중하 535 544 10% 42% 48% 1% -32 하 74 84 5% 4 48% -42 한국갤럽 한국인이보는 2019 년 - Gallup International/WIN End of Year Poll 다국가비교조사결과 - 3 질문 ) 내년에는우리나라경제가어떠할것이라고보십니까? 올해보다 좋아질것, 나빠질것, 비슷할것 중에서말씀해주십시오. 2018 년 11 월 7~30 일면접조사 조사완료사례수 ( 명 ) 가중후사례수 ( 명 ) *Net Score: 순 ( 純 ) 지수, 낙관 - 비관격차 국가경제전망 좋아질것나빠질것비슷할것모름 / 응답거절 한국전체 1,500 1,500 11% 53% 3 0% -42 성별 남성 749 743 10% 54% 35% 1% -44 여성 751 757 11% 52% 3 0% -41 연령별 19-29세 300 261 13% 45% 41% 1% -32 30대 300 256 13% 52% 34% 1% -39 40대 299 300 13% 53% 34% 0% -40 50대 301 300 58% 35% -51 60대이상 300 383 8% 5 34% 1% -48 성 / 남성 19-29세 150 137 10% 49% 40% 1% -39 연령별 남성 30대 149 131 14% 49% 3-35 남성 40대 150 152 15% 5 1% -41 남성 50대 150 151 5% 5 39% -51 남성 60대이상 150 172 8% 60% 1% -52 여성 19-29세 150 124 1 41% 43% -25 여성 30대 151 125 12% 5 30% 1% -44 여성 40대 149 148 10% 50% 40% -40 여성 50대 151 149 10% 59% -49 여성 60대이상 150 212 9% 53% 3 1% -44 직업별 농 / 임 / 어업 27 31 - - - - - 자영업 182 192 59% 34% -52 블루칼라 525 514 10% 52% 38% 0% -42 화이트칼라 318 297 14% 50% 3 0% -36 가정주부 278 304 11% 58% 30% 1% -47 학생 100 88 14% 44% 40% 2% -30 무직 / 은퇴 / 기타 70 74 8% 60% 1% -52 지역별 서울 300 295 15% 54% 30% 1% -39 인천 / 경기 450 460 12% 59% 29% 0% -47 강원 50 46 4% 4 49% -43 대전 / 세종 / 충청 140 160 15% 45% 41% -30 광주 / 전라 170 151 12% 30% 58% 1% -18 대구 / 경북 150 152 3% 63% 32% 2% -60 부산 / 울산 / 경남 240 235 58% 3-52 생활 상 / 중상 70 68 10% 62% 29% -52 수준별중 820 803 11% 51% 38% 0% -40 중하 535 544 12% 55% 33% 0% -43 하 74 84 5% 55% 3 3% -50 *50 사례미만은수치를제시하지않음. 한국갤럽 www.gallup.co.kr Net Score (1)-(2)
한국갤럽 한국인이보는 2019 년 - Gallup International/WIN End of Year Poll 다국가비교조사결과 - 4 질문 ) 내년에는세계가좀더평화로워질것으로보십니까, 더혼란스러워질것으로보십니까, 아니면비슷할것이라고보십니까? 2018 년 11 월 7~30 일면접조사 조사완료사례수 ( 명 ) 가중후사례수 ( 명 ) *Net Score: 순 ( 純 ) 지수, 낙관 - 비관격차 평화로워질것 (1) 세계평화전망 혼란스러울것 (2) *50 사례미만은수치를제시하지않음. 한국갤럽 www.gallup.co.kr 비슷할것모름 / 응답거절 Net Score (1)-(2) 한국전체 1,500 1,500 15% 32% 49% 3% -17 성별 남성 749 743 15% 32% 49% 3% -17 여성 751 757 1 32% 49% 3% -16 연령별 19-29세 300 261 18% 32% 4 3% -14 30대 300 256 1 32% 49% 2% -15 40대 299 300 18% 33% 4 2% -15 50대 301 300 11% 32% 52% 5% -21 60대이상 300 383 14% 51% 4% -17 성 / 남성 19-29세 150 137 14% 3 49% 1% -22 연령별 남성 30대 149 131 1 51% 1% -14 남성 40대 150 152 18% 33% 4 3% -15 남성 50대 150 151 11% 33% 50% -22 남성 60대이상 150 172 15% 29% 52% 5% -14 여성 19-29세 150 124 23% 2 4 4% -4 여성 30대 151 125 1 34% 4 2% -17 여성 40대 149 148 1 34% 48% 1% -17 여성 50대 151 149 11% 32% 54% 3% -21 여성 60대이상 150 212 13% 33% 50% 4% -20 직업별 농 / 임 / 어업 27 31 - - - - - 자영업 182 192 11% 3 49% 4% -25 블루칼라 525 514 1 33% 49% 3% -17 화이트칼라 318 297 18% 30% 50% 2% -12 가정주부 278 304 13% 2 5 3% -14 학생 100 88 21% 38% 38% 3% -17 무직 / 은퇴 / 기타 70 74 15% 34% 45% -19 지역별 서울 300 295 21% 34% 44% 1% -13 인천 / 경기 450 460 14% 3 4 3% -23 강원 50 46 1 21% 58% 5% -5 대전 / 세종 / 충청 140 160 13% 34% 52% 2% -21 광주 / 전라 170 151 2 24% 44% 2 대구 / 경북 150 152 9% 33% 53% 5% -24 부산 / 울산 / 경남 240 235 10% 2 60% 5% -16 생활 상 / 중상 70 68 8% 25% 61% -17 수준별중 820 803 1 29% 50% 3% -12 중하 535 544 13% 38% 4 3% -25 하 74 84 13% 5 3% -15
국가별내년살림살이전망 낙관高 低 2018 년 10~12 월조사 좋아질것 (1) 국가별내년살림살이전망 나빠질것 (2) 비슷할것모름 / 응답거절 Net Score (1)-(2) 50개국전체평균 39% 24% 15 1 ALBANIA 71% 10% 18% 1% 61 2 INDIA 69% 5% 21% 4% 64 3 MEXICO 6 9% 14% 11% 58 4 GHANA 6 12% 14% 8% 54 5 SOUTH AFRICA 6 15% 11% 8% 51 6 NIGERIA 65% 19% 14% 2% 46 7 ARMENIA 62% 25% 55 8 GEORGIA 61% 8% 15% 1 53 8 KAZAKHSTAN 61% 8% 23% 8% 53 10 PAKISTAN 54% 1 23% 5% 37 11 VIETNAM 53% 8% 35% 5% 45 12 PARAGUAY 53% 10% 32% 5% 43 13 KOSOVO 51% 14% 34% 1% 37 13 NEW ZEALAND 51% 14% 2 8% 37 15 USA 51% 19% 23% 8% 32 24 MOLDOVA 38% 21% 11% 17 25 FINLAND 3 14% 42% 8% 23 26 SWITZERLAND 3 15% 43% 22 27 UKRAINE 3 32% 1 15% 4 28 SPAIN 34% 2 33% 7 29 PHILIPPINES 33% 10% 53% 4% 23 30 GERMANY 33% 19% 42% 5% 14 31 TURKEY 33% 44% 18% 5% -11 32 HUNGARY 32% 30% 1 33 THAILAND 25% 38% 6 34 SERBIA 33% 34% 3% -2 35 UK 29% 30% 30% 11% -1 36 LATVIA 2 25% 18% 2 37 POLAND 2 3 9% -1 38 ECUADOR 2 34% 8% -4 39 CZECH REPUBLIC 25% 2 42% -2 40 JAPAN 24% 12% 41% 23% 12 41 AUSTRIA 24% 21% 50% 5% 3 42 RUSSIA 23% 2 42% 8% -3 43 BULGARIA 22% 30% 1-8 44 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 22% 41% 3 1% -19 45 HONG KONG 20% 45% -25 46 FRANCE 19% 39% 32% 11% -20 47 ITALY 15% 55% 24% -40 48 LEBANON 12% 54% 33% - -42 49 REPUBLIC OF KOREA 11% 41% 48% 1% -30 50 JORDAN 11% 59% 29% 1% -48 한국갤럽 *Net 한국인이 Score: 보는순 ( 純 2019 ) 지수년, 낙관 - Gallup -비관 International/WIN 격차. Gallup International End of Year End of Poll Year 다국가 Survey 비교조사결과 - 5 국가별내년세계평화전망 낙관高 低 2018 년 10~12 월조사 평화로워질것 (1) 국가별내년세계평화전망 혼란스러워질것 (2) 비슷할것모름 / 응답거절 Net Score (1)-(2) 50개국전체평균 2 35% 32% -8 1 PARAGUAY 65% 13% 20% 2% 52 2 INDIA 63% 8% 25% 3% 55 3 GHANA 62% 9% 15% 14% 53 4 ALBANIA 60% 21% 18% - 39 5 NIGERIA 58% 9% 3% 27 6 PAKISTAN 54% 22% 19% 5% 32 7 TURKEY 48% 1 4% 17 8 IRAQ 4 2 25% 2% 21 9 KAZAKHSTAN 45% 1 10% 28 10 ARGENTINA 45% 22% 30% 3% 23 10 MOLDOVA 45% 22% 23 12 ROMANIA 45% 2 2 2% 18 21 INDONESIA 33% 13% 4 20 22 VIETNAM 30% 22% 40% 8% 8 23 THAILAND 29% 23% 41% 24 UKRAINE 29% 39% 25% 8% -10 25 SERBIA 21% 40% 35% 4% -19 26 RUSSIA 20% 44% -8 27 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 19% 39% 41% 1% -20 28 SWITZERLAND 18% 52% 30% - -34 29 USA 1 42% 34% -25 30 POLAND 1 41% 34% 9% -25 31 GERMANY 1 54% 2 5% -38 32 BULGARIA 15% 38% 19% -13 33 CZECH REPUBLIC 15% 32% 45% 8% -17 33 REPUBLIC OF KOREA 15% 32% 49% 3% -17 35 ECUADOR 15% 48% 32% 5% -33 36 COLOMBIA 14% 48% 3 2% -34 37 ITALY 13% 50% 8% -15 38 AUSTRIA 13% 50% -37 39 UK 12% 45% 3-33 40 JORDAN 11% 61% 1% -50 41 AUSTRALIA 10% 38% 4 5% -28 42 NEW ZEALAND 10% 42% 42% -32 43 HUNGARY 10% 68% 18% 4% -58 44 JAPAN 9% 32% 3 22% -23 45 FINLAND 8% 65% 21% -57 46 HONG KONG 6 24% 2% -60 47 LEBANON 51% 42% - -45 48 SPAIN 5 32% 5% -51 49 FRANCE 70% 18% -64 50 LATVIA 5% 52% 32% 11% -47 *Net Score: 순 ( 純 ) 지수, 낙관 - 비관격차. Gallup International End of Year Survey
응답자특성표 주요분석단위별표본오차 (95% 신뢰수준기준 ) 와지역 / 성 / 연령 / 직업 / 생활수준분포입니다. 2018 년 7 월행정안전부주민등록인구기준 7 개권역 / 성 / 연령별셀가중처리결과 응답자특성표 2018 년 11 월 7~30 일면접조사 사례수 ( 명 )(A) 조사완료 비율 목표할당 ( 가중후 ) 사례수 ( 명 )(B) 비율 가중값배율 (B/A) 표본오차 95% 신뢰수준 전체 1,500 100% 1,500 100% 1.00 ±2.5%P 성별 남성 749 50% 743 50% 0.99 ±3.P 여성 751 50% 757 50% 1.01 ±3.P 연령별 19-29세 300 20% 261 1 0.87 ±5.P 30대 300 20% 256 1 0.85 ±5.P 40대 299 20% 300 20% 1.00 ±5.P 50대 301 20% 300 20% 1.00 ±5.P 60대이상 300 20% 383 2 1.28 ±5.P 지역별 서울 300 20% 295 20% 0.98 ±5.P 인천 / 경기 450 30% 460 1.02 ±4.P 강원 50 3% 46 3% 0.92 ±13.9%P 대전 / 세종 / 충청 140 9% 160 11% 1.14 ±8.3%P 광주 / 전라 170 11% 151 10% 0.89 ±7.5%P 대구 / 경북 150 10% 152 10% 1.02 ±8.0%P 부산 / 울산 / 경남 240 1 235 1 0.98 ±6.3%P 지역 대도시 668 45% 661 44% ±3.8%P 크기별 증소도시 694 4 702 4 ±3.P 읍 / 면 138 9% 137 9% ±8.3%P 직업별 농 / 임 / 어업 27 2% 31 2% ±18.9%P 자영업 182 12% 192 13% ±7.3%P 블루칼라 525 35% 514 34% ±4.3%P 화이트칼라 318 21% 297 20% ±5.5%P 가정주부 278 19% 304 20% ±5.9%P 학생 100 88 ±9.8%P 무직 / 은퇴 / 기타 70 5% 74 5% ±11.P 생활 상 / 중상 70 5% 68 5% ±11.P 수준별 중 820 55% 803 54% ±3.4%P 중하 535 3 544 3 ±4.2%P 하 74 5% 84 ±11.4%P * 표본오차는조사완료사례수기준. 한국갤럽 www.gallup.co.kr * 목표할당사례수는 2018 년 7 월행안부주민등록인구기준지역 / 성 / 연령셀가중결과 한국갤럽 한국인이보는 2019 년 - Gallup International/WIN End of Year Poll 다국가비교조사결과 - 6
STRICTLY EMBARGOED UNTIL 00:01 (GMT) 27 th December 2018 OPTIMISM FOR THE NEW 2019 YEAR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL IN THE WORLD, ALTHOUGH PESSIMISM IS INCREASING, according to the first and oldest Global Hope End of the Year Index by Gallup International. Prospects for a better 2019 year are increasing for a majority of those surveyed in Africa (typically quite an optimistic region despite living conditions), in India, in non-eu Europe, in the USA and in Latin America. Conversely, we also see more pessimism about the year ahead in the Middle East, in Russia, and to an extent in Western Europe. Over all optimism for the new Year traditionally prevails in the majority of the countries around the world with the exception this year of Turkey, Serbia, UK, Poland, Czech Republic, Russia, Bosnia (BiH), Bulgaria, Hong Kong, France, Italy, Lebanon, Jordan and Republic of Korea. Our global survey also asked whether people expect the next 12 months to be more or less peaceful. While of the world expect it to be more peaceful, 34% believe it will be more troubled. Confidence in peace shines brightest in India, Ghana, Albania, Nigeria and interestingly in Pakistan. At the other end of the scale, ongoing weekend protests in France and the gilets jaunes see France register as the country where the most (70%) feel next year will be more troubled. Kancho Stoychev, President GIA: For decades the End of the Year global poll is registering a paradox: people living in wealthier countries tend to be more pessimistic about the coming New Year. And vice versa. It seems that the fear of losing what you have is bigger than the fear not to have. EU is increasingly pessimistic and there is no need to enumerate why. The same is with Russia while optimism for the next year in the USA is the highest it has been for the last decade. The performance of the US economy is possibly a key driver here. Traditionally in previous decades more people around the World expect a peaceful New Year rather than a troubled one with a permanent exemption: The Middle East. But now for the first time in this century a growing number of West Europeans expect fear a less peaceful next year. The global political order established by the winning parties after the Second WW is rapidly falling apart and the West European nations are concerned about what will come next but also whether they will have a say in as power shifts further to the East. The big challenge is between the US and China economically and between the US and Russia militarily. Europe increasingly looks excluded from the debate.
Methodology: The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. It is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by the Gallup International Association in partnership with WIN in 50 countries around the world. Regions coverage: EU Total: Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Spain, UK EU West: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK EU East: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Hungary Non-EU Europe: Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine USA India Russia Latin America: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay East Asia: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam West Asia: Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey Middle East: Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa Australia & New Zealand Sample Size and Mode of Field Work: A total of 48 745 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face (27 countries; n=28063), via telephone (7 countries; n=5922) or online (16 countries; n=14760). The field work was conducted during October- December 2018. The margin of error for the survey is between +3-5% at 95% confidence level. About Gallup International Gallup International Association (GIA) is the leading association in market research and polling and this year celebrates its 72nd anniversary. For over 70 years Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multicountry surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities. GIA has over 50 members and conducts research in over 100 countries. For more information: Kancho Stoychev (in Sofia), +359 88 8611025 Johnny Heald (in London), +44 7973 600308 For further details see website: www.gallup-international.com
HOPE INDEX As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse or the same as 2018? OPTIMISTS: 39% PESSIMISTS: 24% NEUTRALS: GLOBAL HOPE INDEX 2018:15% Better 39% Worse The same 24% DK/NA HOPE INDEX: NET SCORE OF OPTIMISTS OVER PESSIMISTS TOP 5 OPTIMISTS (Answer Better ) TOP 5 PESSIMISTS (Answer Worse ) Country Net Score Country Net Score INDIA 64 JORDAN -48 ALBANIA 61 LEBANON -42 MEXICO 58 ITALY -40 ARMENIA 55 REPUBLIC OF KOREA -30 GHANA 54 HONG KONG -25
HOPE INDEX - BY REGION As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse or the same as 2018? Global Average EU Total EU West EU East Non EU Europe USA India Russia Latin America East Asia West Asia Middle East Africa Australia and New Zealand 39% 24% 29% 9% 35% 2 29% 3 10% 34% 4 19% 29% 51% 19% 23% 8% 5% 4% 21% 23% 2 8% 42% 43% 25% 2 5% 21% 43% 4 24% 24% 5% 23% 1% 30% 4 1 13% 48% 14% 29% 9% 69% Better Worse The same DK/NA 6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
HOPE INDEX - BY GENDER AND AGE GROUP As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse or the same as 2018? Global Average 24% 39% Male 2 30% 38% Female 22% 39% Age below 18 1 29% 4 Age 18-24 19% 4 Age 25-34 21% 4 Age 35-44 23% 40% Age 45-54 Age 55+64 Age 65+ 9% 35% 2 29% 34% 24% 30% 3 Better Worse The same DK/NA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
HOPE INDEX 2018 BY COUNTRY As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse or the same as 2018? (Countries presented in alphabetical order) Country Optimists (Better) Pessimists (Worse) Neutrals (The same) DK/NA NET Score Row % AFGHANISTAN 41% 30% 2 2% 11 ALBANIA 71% 10% 18% 1% 61 ARGENTINA 39% 29% 2 5% 10 ARMENIA 62% 25% 55 AUSTRALIA 44% 14% 32% 10% 30 AUSTRIA 24% 21% 50% 5% 3 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 22% 41% 3 1% -19 BULGARIA 22% 30% 1-8 COLOMBIA 41% 34% 23% 2% 7 CZECH REPUBLIC 25% 2 42% -2 ECUADOR 2 34% 8% -4 FINLAND 3 14% 42% 8% 23 FRANCE 19% 39% 32% 11% -20 GEORGIA 61% 8% 15% 1 53 GERMANY 33% 19% 42% 5% 14 GHANA 6 12% 14% 8% 54 HUNGARY 32% 30% 1 HONG KONG 20% 45% -25 INDIA 69% 5% 21% 4% 64 INDONESIA 42% 8% 44% 34 IRAQ 44% 2 1% 18 ITALY 15% 55% 24% -40 JORDAN 11% 59% 29% 1% -48 JAPAN 24% 12% 41% 23% 12 KAZAKHSTAN 61% 8% 23% 8% 53 KOSOVO 51% 14% 34% 1% 37 LATVIA 2 25% 18% 2 LEBANON 12% 54% 33% - -42 MACEDONIA 48% 18% 30% 4% 30 MEXICO 6 9% 14% 11% 58 MOLDOVA 38% 21% 11% 17 NEW ZEALAND 51% 14% 2 8% 37
HOPE INDEX 2018 BY COUNTRY Contd. As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse or the same as 2018? (Countries presented in alphabetical order) Country Optimists (Better) Pessimists (Worse) Neutrals (The same) DK/NA NET Score Row % NIGERIA 65% 19% 14% 2% 46 PAKISTAN 54% 1 23% 5% 37 PARAGUAY 53% 10% 32% 5% 43 PHILIPPINES 33% 10% 53% 4% 23 POLAND 2 3 9% -1 REPUBLIC OF KOREA 11% 41% 48% 1% -30 ROMANIA 4 25% 25% 4% 21 RUSSIA 23% 2 42% 8% -3 SERBIA 33% 34% 3% -2 SOUTH AFRICA 6 15% 11% 8% 51 SPAIN 34% 2 33% 7 SWITZERLAND 3 15% 43% 22 THAILAND 25% 38% 6 TURKEY 33% 44% 18% 5% -11 UK 29% 30% 30% 11% -1 UKRAINE 3 32% 1 15% 4 USA 51% 19% 23% 8% 32 VIETNAM 53% 8% 35% 5% 45 Rounding of Decimals: There may be a slight difference of 1 in some instances. Exact figures are available elsewhere. There is also a slight possibility that the figures vary up to maximum of 1 in different versions of press releases. Definitions: Optimists = Better Pessimists = Worse Neutrals = The same
OPTIMISM-PESSIMISM REGARDING GLOBAL PEACE Do you expect the coming next 2019 to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or the same? 2 More peaceful 32% More troubled The same 35% DK/NA NET SCORE OF OPTIMISTS OVER PESSIMISTS REGARDING GLOBAL PEACE TOP 10 OPTIMISTS (Answer Peaceful ) TOP 10 PESSIMISTS (Answer Troubled ) Country Net Score Country Net Score INDIA 55 FRANCE -64 GHANA 53 HONG KONG -60 PARAGUAY 52 HUNGARY -58 ALBANIA 39 FINLAND -57 PAKISTAN 32 SPAIN -51 GEORGIA, KAZAKHSTAN 28 JORDAN -50 NIGERIA 27 LATVIA -47 KOSOVO 26 LEBANON -45 PHILIPPINES 25 GERMANY -38 ARGENTINA, MOLDOVA 23 AUSTRIA -37
OPTIMISM-PESSIMISM REGARDING GLOBAL PEACE BY REGION Do you expect the coming next 2019 to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or the same? Global Average EU Total EU West EU East Non EU Europe USA India Russia Latin America East Asia West Asia Middle East Africa Australia and New Zealand 2 35% 32% 13% 8% 11% 9% 5% 8% 3% 4% 8% 5% 1% 10% 5% 32% 15% 33% 35% 29% 30% 1 34% 25% 20% 33% 33% 29% 22% 2 22% 21% 32% 2 19% 48% 42% 42% 44% 43% 44% 4 49% 40% 45% 53% 63% More peaceful More troubled The same DK/NA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
OPTIMISM-PESSIMISM REGARDING GLOBAL PEACE BY GENDER AND AGE GROUP Do you expect the coming next 2019 to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or the same? Global Average 2 32% 35% Male 5% 2 32% 3 Female 33% Age below 18 10% 2 3 Age 18-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 5% 33% 30% 32% 33% 34% 32% More peaceful More troubled The same DK/NA Age 45-54 25% 32% 38% Age 55+64 21% 32% 40% Age 65+ 8% 1 34% 42% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
OPTIMISM-PESSIMISM REGARDING GLOBAL PEACE BY COUNTRY Do you expect the coming next 2019 to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or the same? (Countries presented in alphabetical order) Country Optimists (Peaceful) Pessimists (Troubled) Neutrals (The same) DK/NA NET Score Row % AFGHANISTAN 3 38% 23% 3% -2 ALBANIA 60% 21% 18% * 39 ARGENTINA 45% 22% 30% 3% 23 ARMENIA 34% 23% 33% 9% 11 AUSTRALIA 10% 38% 4 5% -28 AUSTRIA 13% 50% -37 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 19% 39% 41% 1% -20 BULGARIA 15% 38% 19% -13 COLOMBIA 14% 48% 3 2% -34 CZECH REPUBLIC 15% 32% 45% 8% -17 ECUADOR 15% 48% 32% 5% -33 FINLAND 8% 65% 21% -57 FRANCE 70% 18% -64 GEORGIA 43% 15% 24% 1 28 GERMANY 1 54% 2 5% -38 GHANA 62% 9% 15% 14% 53 HUNGARY 10% 68% 18% 4% -58 HONG KONG 6 24% 2% -60 INDIA 63% 8% 25% 3% 55 INDONESIA 33% 13% 4 20 IRAQ 4 2 25% 2% 21 ITALY 13% 50% 8% -15 JORDAN 11% 61% 1% -50 JAPAN 9% 32% 3 22% -23 KAZAKHSTAN 45% 1 10% 28 KOSOVO 40% 14% 42% 4% 26 LATVIA 5% 52% 32% 11% -47 LEBANON 51% 42% - -45 MACEDONIA 43% 2 25% 5% 16 MEXICO 41% 2 20% 14% 15 MOLDOVA 45% 22% 23 NEW ZEALAND 10% 42% 42% -32
OPTIMISM-PESSIMISM REGARDING GLOBAL PEACE BY COUNTRY Contd. Do you expect the coming next 2019 to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or the same? (Countries presented in alphabetical order) Country Optimists (Peaceful) Pessimists (Troubled) Neutrals (The same) DK/NA NET Score Row % NIGERIA 58% 9% 3% 27 PAKISTAN 54% 22% 19% 5% 32 PARAGUAY 65% 13% 20% 2% 52 PHILIPPINES 3 12% 48% 3% 25 POLAND 1 41% 34% 9% -25 REPUBLIC OF KOREA 15% 32% 49% 3% -17 ROMANIA 45% 2 2 2% 18 RUSSIA 20% 44% -8 SERBIA 21% 40% 35% 4% -19 SOUTH AFRICA 40% 2 5% 12 SPAIN 5 32% 5% -51 SWITZERLAND 18% 52% 30% - -34 THAILAND 29% 23% 41% 6 TURKEY 48% 1 4% 17 UK 12% 45% 3-33 UKRAINE 29% 39% 25% 8% -10 USA 1 42% 34% -25 VIETNAM 30% 22% 40% 8% 8 Rounding of Decimals: There may be a slight difference of 1 in some instances. Exact figures are available elsewhere. There is also a slight possibility that the figures vary up to maximum of 1 in different versions of press releases. Definitions: Optimists = A peaceful year Pessimists = A troubled year Neutrals = The same
End of Year Survey 2018 Participants (GIA Members and Partners presented in alphabetical order) Country Vendor Company Sample size Fieldwork Dates Method Representativeness Row % AFGHANISTAN ACSOR-Surveys 1 763 15-25.10.2018 F2F National 18+ ALBANIA Be Research LLC 1 040 08-18.11.2018 CAPI National, 18-65 ARGENTINA Voices! Research & Consultancy 1 002 02-15.10.2018 F2F, CAPI National, 16+ ARMENIA MPG LLC 1 111 17-22.11.2018 CAPI National, 18+ AUSTRALIA Roy Morgan Research 1 028 13-14.12.2018 CAWI National AUSTRIA Ö sterreichisches Gallup Institut 1 000 22.11-03.12.2018 CAWI National, 14+ BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA Mareco Index Bosnia 1 000 05-18.11.2018 CATI National, 18+ BULGARIA Gallup International 1 053 02-09.11.2018 CAPI National, 18+ COLOMBIA Centro Nacional de Consultoría 1 000 14-17.12.2018 CATI National, 18+ CZECH REPUBLIC MARECO Ltd. Praha 1 500 14.11-03.12.2018 F2F National, 18+ ECUADOR CEDATOS 700 26.11-16.12.2018 F2F National, 16+ FINLAND Taloustutkimus Oy 1 134 07-11.12.2018 CAWI National, 15+ FRANCE BVA 1 000 23-29.11.2018 CAWI National, 15+ GEORGIA GORBI 1 008 18-25.11.2018 CAPI National, 18+ GERMANY Ö sterreichisches Gallup Institut 1 000 03-07.12.2018 CAWI National, 16+ GHANA Candino Global 500 20.11-03.12.2018 CAPI Urban, 18-64 HONG KONG CSG (Consumer Search Group) 505 28.10-21.11.2018 Online National, 18+ HUNGARY Ö sterreichisches Gallup Institut 1 000 10-20.12.2018 CAWI National INDIA Impetus Research Pvt. Ltd 1 001 22.10-30.11.2018 CATI National, 18+ INDONESIA Deka 1 040 14-25.11.2018 F2F 5 big cities, 18+ Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our
End of Year Survey 2018 Participants Contd. (GIA Members and Partners presented in alphabetical order) Country Vendor Company Sample size Fieldwork Dates Method Representativeness Row % IRAQ IIACSS 1 000 03-28.11.2018 CAPI Urban, 18-65 ITALY DOXA 1 072 16-30.11.2018 CAPI National, 15+ JAPAN NRC (Nippon Research Center) 1 155 01-13.11.2018 F2F National, 15-79 JORDAN MRO 1 000 29.10-20.11.2018 F2F National, 18+ KAZAKHSTAN BISAM - CENTRAL ASIA 1 400 22.11-11.12.2018 F2F CAPI Urban, 18+ KOSOVO Be Research LLC 978 06-18.11.2018 F2F National, 18+ LATVIA SKDS 1 005 29.11-05.12.2018 CAWI National, 18-75 LEBANON MRO 1 000 29.10-20.11.2018 F2F National, 18+ MACEDONIA BRIMA 1 212 22.11-06.12.2018 F2F, TAPI National, 15+ MEXICO BRAIN 500 10-14.12.2018 Online Urban, 18-64 MOLDOVA CBS - AXA S.R.L., I.M. 600 10-20.10.2018 CATI National, 18+ NEW ZEALAND Roy Morgan Research 1 011 13-14.12.2018 CAWI National NIGERIA Market Trends International 800 28.11-05.12.2018 F2F, TAPI National, 18+ PAKISTAN Gallup Pakistan 1 000 13-20.10.2018 F2F National, 18-65 PARAGUAY INSTITUTO DE COMUNICACION Y ARTE - ICA 515 11/12.2018 Online Main Cities PHILIPPINES PSRC 1 000 06-20.11.2018 F2F, PAPI National, 18+ POLAND MARECO POLSKA 1 017 20-30.10.2018 F2F, PAPI National, 18+ REPUBLIC OF KOREA Gallup Korea 1 500 08-28.11.2018 F2F National, 19+ ROMANIA TNS CSOP 530 15-29.11.2018 CATI National, 18-64 Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our
End of Year Survey 2018 Participants Contd. (GIA Members and Partners presented in alphabetical order) Country Vendor Company Sample size Fieldwork Dates Method Representativeness Row % RUSSIA Romir 1 000 28.11-02.12.2018 F2F National, 18+ SERBIA TNS Medium Gallup 1 012 20.10-04.11.2018 F2F, TAPI National, 18+ SOUTH AFRICA Freshly Ground Insights (FGI) 1 515 23.10-29.11.2018 Online National, 18+ SPAIN SIGMA DOS 800 14-15.12.2018 CATI National, 18+ SWITZERLAND Opinion Plus 1 000 12-17.12.2018 Online panel National, 15+ THAILAND Infosearch co.ltd 600 05-30.11.2018 F2F National, 18+ TURKEY Barem 991 01.11-07.12.2018 CATI National, 18+ UK ORB International (Opinion Research Business) 1 001 07-10.12.2018 Online National, 18+ UKRAINE Romir Ukraine 500 30.11-04.12.2018 Online Urban, 18+ USA Survey Monkey 1 045 06-07.12.2018 Online panel National, 18+ VIETNAM Indochina Research 600 05-23.11.2018 F2F, CAPI Urban, 18-64 Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our