w» wz, 14«4y(2012) (ISSN 1229-5671) Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4, (2012), pp. 189~195 DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.189 Author(s) 2012. CC Attribution 3.0 License. w y» d ³ 1 Á y 1 Á 1Áû 1 Áw y 1 Á 2 Á 2,3* 1 p w, 2 w w, 3 w w (2012 10 30 ; 2012 11 15 ; 2012 11 15 ) Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date of Yumyeong (Prunus persica) Peach Trees Seok Kyu Yun 1, Kyeong Ho Chung 1, Ik Koo Yoon 1, Eun Young Nam 1, Jeom Hwa Han 1, Duk Jun Yu 2 and Hee Jae Lee 2,3* 1 Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Suwon 440-706, Korea 2 Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-921, Korea 3 Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-921, Korea (Received October 30, 2012; Revised November 15, 2012; Accepted November 15, 2012) ABSTRACT To predict the blooming date of Yumyeong peach trees, the models for flower bud developmental rate (DVR) were constructed. The DVRs were calculated from the demanded times at controlled air temperatures. The branches of Yumyeong peach trees were incubated at three different temperatures of 9.7, 15.2, and 18.9 o C. The DVRs were also constructed with blooming dates and air temperatures in the field, collected from 1979 to 2008 at the experimental orchard of National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Suwon, Korea. All the DVRs increased linearly or exponentially with air temperature. The DVR equations evaluated under controlled air temperatures were y=0.0018x+ 0.0051 and y=0.0125e 0.0603x. The DVR equations under field conditions were calculated as y=0.0039x 0.0112 and y=0.0062e 0.1512x. These DVR equations offer developmental indices and predict the date for blooming with air temperature data. These DVR equations were validated against the blooming data observed in the field. When the blooming dates were calculated with exponential DVR equations and daily air temperature data, the root mean squared errors between the observed and predicted dates were around 2 days. These results suggest that the DVR models are useful to predict the blooming date of Yumyeong peach trees. Key words: Air temperature, Blooming date, Exponential equation, Prunus persica, Yumyeong I. w j. ùyƒ w» y»ƒ š,»z» y w w vw ƒ f š (Honjo, 2007). p, y»ƒ vw ƒ» y» d mw w v w. d wš. y» d k w, w z (Aoki et al., 1985) z * Corresponding Author : Hee Jae Lee (heejlee@snu.ac.kr)
190 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4 (Noro et al., 1986), (Rea and Eccel, 2006), s³» w (Aono and Omoto, 1990; Aono and Moriya, 2003; Honjo et al., 2006; Kawakami et al., 2009). y» { kq z y»¾» w, y» ƒ ƒ j w wš. p Kume and Takezawa(1994) Murakami et al.(2006, 2008, 2009) y» d w w š w. ü,, s d w 1990 s³» 5 o C ú s³ w (NAAS, 1990). s» d w ƒ w, s»» j w š(noro et al., 1986; Kwon et al., 2005), w s» d w (Yun et al., 2011). y» d w k w ¼ w x w (Behdani et al., 2008) ù w (Ono et al., 1988; Omoto and Aono, 1989; Aono and Omoto, 1990; Aono, 1993) w. Yun et al.(2011) s e w x w w» d w w. wr, y y t { kq v w w { x ywš w y v w š w» dw (Kim et al., 2009). t y yw y wš y» d ƒ mw. y 30 s w y» w x w w w, w y» d wš y» d ƒ mw. II. 2.1. w y t y» w» w 10, 15, 19 o C w ƒ y w. 1 30 10 w ƒ 30cm ü ¼ w w z w» y wš y 50% w ú y» w y w. x» d w w» s³ ƒƒ 9.7, 15.2, 18.9 o C. 2.2. s y»» p w t 1979 l 2008 ¾ y» w. y» 50%ƒ yw ú» w. z y»¾» p w ew» w w. 2.3. y» y» d w w De Wit et al.(1970) Horie and Nakagawa(1990)ƒ y» d w w (Yun et al., 2011). { w y»»¾» y»,» (developmental index, DVI), y (developmental rate, DVR) w. { š w DVIƒ 0 š DVIƒ 1.0 y w ƒ w. y» DVI DVR w ƒ w (1) ùký. w y N DVI (2) ùký š, p w DVR y DVIƒ 1.0 y N (3) txw (Sameshima and Iwakiri, 1987; Yun et al., 2011).
Seok Kyu Yun et al.: Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date... 191 DVI i ( y» )=DVR i (1) DVI N ( N z )=N DVR (2) DVR T (p w )=1 N 1 (3) š y (N) y (N ) w 1 (4) txw. DVR» (T) w x w (5) txw, w (6) w ùk ý., A, B, C, D. N 1 ( y )=A+B T (4) DVR T (» T w )=A+B T (5) DVR T (» T w )=C e (D T) (6) 2.4. y w y DVR w DVR w w y w w. ƒ DVR y (N ) 1 z w DVR w. s DVR s 30 dw w w. y»ƒ ù sww 15 y s³» z w w DVR w. DVR w x w w tx ƒ w. wr, { y y w» (Kim et al., 2009) ƒ wš 1 30 z l y DVR w s³» 5 o C ú sww (Moncur et al., 1989; NAAS, 1990). w 30 dw w y» s³» š 20 o C w 20 o C DVR w š w š 20 o C w w w. 2.5. DVR w w y» d w y» w DVR w w w DVI ƒ wš y» d w. w x s w w DVR w 30 dw s³» w y» d wš y» d d w d w w. DVR w w DVI vp (MS Office 2007, Microsoft, USA) w, y» d w w z m vp (SPSS 12.0, SPSS, USA) w. III. š 3.1. w y» DVR 9.7, 15.2, 18.9 C dw y o ƒƒ 45, 31, 26 DVR ƒƒ 0.022, 0.032, 0.038 (Table 1). w y DVR w (x) w DVR x w y=0.0018x+0.0051 (r =0.99*) w 2 y=0.0125e 0.0603x (r 2 =0.99*) w (Fig. 1). w» y» d DVR w y=0.0054e 0.1653x w (NAAS, 1990), w t y» d DVR w š»»ƒ û r. w Table 1. Number of days needed for blooming and DVR of Yumyeong peach tree at three different air temperatures 20% Blooming 50% Blooming 80% Blooming Temperature ( o C) No. of days DVR No. of days DVR No. of days DVR 9.7 39 0.026 45 0.022 53 0.019 15.2 26 0.038 31 0.032 35 0.029 18.9 22 0.045 26 0.038 29 0.034
192 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4 Table 2. Blooming date, daily air temperature, and number of days over 5 o C for blooming of Yumyeong peach trees in Suwon, Korea from 1979 to 2008 Item Minimum Mean Maximum Blooming date (month/day) April 13 April 22 May 4 Daily air temperature ( o C) 8.73 9.48 10.64 No. of days z 35 40 45 z Days were counted from February 21 when the daily mean air temperature was over 5 o C. Fig. 1. Linear (A) and exponential (B) DVR equations for blooming measured in a controlled air temperature test. r Sugiura and Honjo(1997)ƒ w y» d DVR w y=0.0124e 0.0425x w jš»»ƒ. y»ƒ jš»»ƒ ùkù, y» y» 2~5 (NIHHS, 2009). 3.2. s y» DVR w p w 1979 l 2008 ¾ 30 w w t y» 4 13 l 5 4 s³ y» 4 22 (Table 2). s³» 5 o C ú w w y 40.0, s³» 9.48 o C, DVR 0.0253. 30 w y» s³» 15 w y DVR wš w (x) w DVR x w y=0.0039x 0.0112(r 2 =0.72*) Fig. 2. Linear (A) and exponential (B) DVR equations for blooming estimated from field data collected in Suwon, Korea from 1979 to 2008. w y=0.0062e 0.1512x (r 2 =0.73*) w (Fig. 2). w w» (NAAS, 1990) w y» d DVR w y=0.0054e 0.1653x»»ƒ w. 3.3. DVR w w y d t y» d DVR w s³» w DVI wš DVIƒ 1.0 w y d w. p l Julian
Seok Kyu Yun et al.: Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date... 193 Fig. 3. Daily mean air temperature (A) and DVIs (B) for 1996, 1998, and 30 years from 1979 to 2008 calculated with a DVR equation (y=0.0062e 0.1512x ) and daily temperature data. Fig. 4. Fitness of the predicted data calculated with exponential DVR equations. A, by y=0.0125e 0.0603x ; B, by y= 0.0062e 0.1512x. days ùkü 1979 l 2008 ¾ 30 w y s³ 113 Julian days. y 1998 y 104 Julian days š DVI ƒw. y 1996 y 120 Julian days š DVI ƒw p 70~80 Julian days DVI û w (Fig. 3). 3.4. DVR w s³» w y» d w x w DVR w y= 0.0125e 0.0603x w s³» w w y» d d w s³ (root mean squared error, RMSE) 2.31 (Fig. 4A). s w DVR w y=0.0062e 0.1512x s³» w w y» d d RMSE 1.83 ùkû (Fig. Fig. 5. Relationship between the observed and the predicted days for full blooming in Yumyeong peach trees calculated with a DVR equation (y=0.0062e 0.1512x ). Vertical bars represent residual between the observed and the predicted days by year. 4B). DVR w w w y» d d ƒ 2 ü s w w. w mw w x DVR w s w DVR w y» d ww
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