99-7 - - 1999. 8
- - 1999. 8
.,,.. 19 93 96 39 2.. 97 824..
..,.... 1999 8
< > o - 78 98 19 93 96 39 - - -,,, o, - - i -
- o - - 19 93 2 o - - 88 5 o - - ii -
,,,,,, - 97 824 o 85% - -,,, - iii -
< >. 1. 3 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5 2. 7. 7. 8. 10 3. 12 III. 14 1. 14. 14. 16. 19 2. 22. 22 - i -
. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29 3. 30. 30. 31. 32 4. 33. 33. 34. 36. 38 1. 38. 38. 40 2. 42. 42. 42. 44 3. 46 - ii -
. 46. 49 4. 50. 52 54 1. 57 2. 65 3. 72 4. 78 - iii -
< 2-1> (JMA Scale:1949) 6 < 2-2> ( ) 7 < 2-3> ( : 78 98) 8 < 2-4> 13 < 3-1> (20 ) 15 < 3-2> 20 < 3-3> 25 < 3-4> 26 < 3-5> 26 < 3-6> 33 < 3-7> 34 < 4-1> 40 < 4-2> 45 < 2-1> 9 < 3-1> 24 < 3-2> 27 < 3-3> 35 < 3-4> 36 < 4-1> ( 78 99.7) 38 < 4-2> 43 < 4-3> 47 < 4-4> ( ) 48 - iv -
.. 93.... 10 1). 1) 5 (1997 2001 ) 10. 5. ( w w w.m ogah a.g o.kr ) - 1 -
....... - 2 -
. 1..,,.,.. 78 98 2.0 19 4.5 2 1. 2).,. (Plate Tectonics). 2)..( w w w.km a.g o.kr ) - 3 -
.., 100Km 12, cm......,,,.,. - 4 -
..,...,. (Richter scale), M' (Magnitu de). 3).,,, 3) 5.6 5.6. - 5 -
.. JMA scale.(< 2-1> ) < 2-1> (JMA Scale:1949), (gal) 1 0.8 2 0.8 2.5 3 2.5 8. 4. 5. 6,, 7 30%, 8 30%., 8 25 25 80 80 250 250 400 400 ) gal cm / sec 2 :,, 1995-6 -
2.. 1976 7.6 65, 1966 20, 1920 18.(< 2-2> ) < 2-2> ( ) 1908 120,000 7.5 1915 30,000 7.0 1920 180,000 8.5 1923 143,000 8.2 1932 70,000 7.6 1935 60,000 7.5 1939 30,000 7.8 1939 23,000 8.0 1960 14,000 5.9 1962 14,000 7.3 1966 200,000 7.2 1968 11,600 7.4 1970 66,000 7.8 1976 22,000 7.9 1976-650,000 7.6 1978 25,000 7.7 1994 LA 120 6.9-7 -
1995 6,500 7.2 1995 3,000 7.5 1995 100 6.3 1995 66 7.6 1996 3,400 7.0 :,, 1998. 9 1,200, 4.5 250. (< 2-3> ) < 2-3> ( : 78 98) 3.0 9 / 1,200 / 1,00000 / 4.0 1.3 / 400 / 15,000 / 5.0 0.2 / 100 / 3,000 / 6.0-10 / 100 / :, w w w.km a.go.kr. - 8 -
< 2-1> M r 10 t ( ) 1 2 I ( ) C C,,, C A 10 10 5 ( ) 100 1000 ( ) CC' M : Magnitude r : I : CC' CD,, B B BC' CC' CC' CC' CC' A B C, C' D CC' CC' M. r. t A A :,, 551,, 7-9 -
., 1,, 2. 1,,,,.(< 2-1> ).. LA, 4). 1 2,, 4), LA, (, 18 27 7 - -,, LA ) - 10 -
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 3-11 -
,. 3.,,.,,,.... 5). : 2000m 3000m 6) 5) H. Kobay sa si,,,, 1997. 4 6),,,, - 12 -
: Cable Cable GPS( ) : GPS,, N etw ork : 1,000 :,, < 2-4>,,, : w w w.m itsu im arine.co.jp,,. 1975 7.5 2 10. - 13 -
III. 1.. 3.0 1,200 6.0 10%.. 1995 1 17,, 7) 99 6,310, 40,000, 394,440, 7,367 10 19.,. 19C 7), 20km 7.1 (, ) ( 6, 5, 4, 4 ). - 14 -
500,. < 3-1> (20 ) (M) 142,000, 254,000, 1923 7.9 447,000, 1925 6.8 428, 1,295, 2,180 1927 7.3 2,925, 12,584 1930 7.3 272, 2,165 1933 8.1 3,064 4,034 1,817 1943 7.2 1,083, 7,485 6,158 1944 7.9 1,223, 17,599, 36,520, 3,129 1945 6.8 2,306, 7,221, 16,555 1946 8.0 1,330, 11,591, 23,487, 1,451 1948 7.1 3,769, 36,184, 11,816, 3,851 1960 8.5 142, 1,500, 2,000 1983 7.7 104, 934, 2,115 1993 7.8 230 ) 100 : w w w.son san.or.jp - 15 -
,. 5 30. 1956.,.,.. 8) 8) (,, 5 ) - 16 -
.. 1).,.. 1923 15 9,000 2 2,000,.,. 2) - 17 -
.,,,,.,,,.,. 3)... 69. - 18 -
. 1966. Paul Mayet 1878, 1890 9., 1948. 1952, 1956. 1964, 1966 6 1., - 19 -
.,, 30%., 11 (.< 3-2> ) < 3-2> 1 1966.6 90 3,000 60 2,700 300 4,000 1972.5 30% 150 3,400 1 120 600-20 -
1975.4 2,, 1978.4 3 1980.7 4,, 240 150 50% 10% 8,000 6,775 1,225 1 2,000 1 162 5 1,837 5 1982.4 5 1991.4 6 1994.6 7 1995.10 3 0 5 0 % 1 5 1 2,715 1,000 2,285 500 ( 5%) 1 8 1 5,258 2,742-21 -
1996.1 9 3 2 6,884 2,742 1997.4 10 3 7 3 1,974 5,000 5,025 5 1,000 50% 4 1,000 1999.4 11 :, 551 3 4,89 1 3 6,108 7, p.26 2... - 22 -
9),,,,,,,,.. 1).. 2),,.. 9), - 23 -
,,, 30... 1). < 3-1>,,,,,,,,,, < 3-1>. - 24 -
2) 1., 1 1. 5.. 1) 30% 50%. 2 4 < 3-3>. < 3-3> 5,000 1,000-25 -
2),, < 3-4>. < 3-4> ( ) 50%, 70% 20 50%, 20 70% 3 20%,,, 80% (, ) 50%(, 50% ) 5%(, 5% ) (, ) 30 80% 50% (, 50% ) 10 30% 50%(, 5% ) - 26 -
,, 2. < 3-2>,,,,,,,.. - 27 -
. 4 11 4 1,000 3 4,891 3 6,108 7... 1 2, 3...,,.. 50,000-28 -
.. 16.5%,, 95 7.0%. 97 13.1%. FY'94. FY' 94 FY'95. - 29 -
< 3-5> 3... 1998. - 30 -
,... 10) 502 400 1740. 11). 1996 400,, 10) 1925 1494 1996 400. 11),, 5, p.197-31 -
400.. (, ). 4. - 32 -
< 3-6> 1 0.50 1.45 2 0.70 2.00 3 1.35 2.80 4 1.75 4.30 ) 1,000, 1 4..,,.. 1. 1 1966 2,700 3 4,891 3-33 -
. < 3-7> (A) (B) (A+B) 1966.6 300 2,700 3,000 1972.5 600 3,400 4,000 1975.4 1,225 6,775 8,000 1978.4 1,837.5 1 162.5 1 2,000 1982.4 2,285 1 2,715 1 5,000 1994.6 2,742 1 5,258 1 8,000 1996.1 2,742 2 6,884 3 1,000 1997.4 5,025.5 3 1,974 3 7,000 1999.4 6,108.7 3 4,891.3 4 1,000 :, 5, 1992. p.194. 1) (A ).. A. - 34 -
2) (B ) (Excess of Loss Basis) B.,,,. < 3-3> A C ( : 3,000.7 ) B (Share : 3,108 ) :,, 1995 2, p.67 3) (C ) - 35 -
(C ). (< 3-2> ).. A B C. < 3-4> 750 5,326 8,186 24,586 4 1,000 3,718(50%) 750 31,173.3(95%) ( ) 2,288 1,430 ( ) ( ) 820( 2.5%) 820.7( 2.5%) : ( ) 1999. 4. 15, p.12 4 1,000 85% 3 4,891.3, 3,108, 3,000.7 (1 1 ). - 36 -
3 B 750 8,186 B C. B 750, 8,186 50% 2,288 1,430. 8,186 4 1000 3 2,813.6 95% 2.5%.(< 3-3> ) - 37 -
. 1.. 1905 1905 1945 5 10. 19, M 4.5 2 1. 93 96 39, 99 7 31. (< 4-1> ) < 4-1> ( 78 99.7) - 38 -
. 12).,,,, 4.0 1993 4.0 96 39 98 32 3 < 2-3> 12). - 39 -
. 8C 100. 1936 5.1 4 113 1978 5.0 2 118.(< 4-1> ) < 4-1> (M) (JMA) 1936. 7. 4 5.1 ( ), 4 113 1978. 9.16 5.2 ( ), 1978. 9.16 5.0 ( ), 2, 118, 1980. 1. 8 5.0 ( ), 1981. 4.15 4.8 ( ), 1982. 2.14 4.5 ( ) 1982. 3. 1 4.7 45km, ( ) 1985. 6.25 4.0 30km, ( ) 1992. 1.21 4.0 50km, ( ) 1992.12.13 4.0 70km,,,, ( - ) 1994. 4.22 4.6 175km,,,, ( ) 1994. 4.23 4.5 100km,,,, ( ) 1994. 7.26 4.9 100km,,,, ( ) 1995. 7.24 4.2 70km,, ( ) - 40 -
(M) (JMA) 1996. 1.24 4.2 80km ( ) 1996.12.13 4.5 80km ( ) 1997. 6.26 4.2 9km( ) 1998. 2.10 4.1 90km ( ) 1999. 1.11 4.2 15km ( ) :,, 97, p.97.., ( 88 93 ) 6,500 13). 13),.,, 551,, 7 12-41 -
2..,,, 3. 14)..,... 14),, 1998. 2-42 -
. < 4-2> 21 :, ), - 43 -
,.,.... 1978 10. 6 10 m 3 (30,250 ), 5,000 m 3 (1,512 ), 1 m 3 (3,025 ),, 16 30m. 1993, < 4-2>. - 44 -
< 4-2>,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,. 38 ( ).,. 2,. 88. - 45 -
6 7 5.2 5.3,.,,,,,,,,, 3.., - 46 -
,,,.,,. < 4-3>. < 4-3> 1. :, 2., 3. : (72 1 ) 100-47 -
2% 100. F.O.C Policy 5, Earthqu akes Coverage Clause. < 4-4> ( ),.,,,. 97 824 1,939,304 0.04%. < 4-4> 96. 95-48 -
97 13.1%. < 4-3> ( : ) FY'94 FY'95 FY'96 FY'97 63 99 106 545 2,753 2,767 156 204 2,732 1,909 81 74 11 19 1 1 (A) 2,064,895 2,204,594 2,239,325 1,939,304 (B) 5,559 4,794 344 824 B/ A 0.27% 0.22% 0.01% 0.04% ) A B :, 95 98. 2000. 3 75% 115%. 0.009%. 1000 900. - 49 -
4.. 90,,.....,,,.,.,,,,.,, - 50 -
.,.,..,,,,.,.,. - 51 -
..,., 93 4.,,,.,,. FY 97 824.. - 52 -
,,...,,,.. - 53 -
< >, 1998.12.., 1998.12., 1995 7 20,,,, 1995.2,,,, 1995.2,,,, 1995.2,,,, 1997. 4 H. Kobaysasi,,,, 1997. 4,, 316,, 1995. 2,,,, 1997. 4,, 1997. 2. - 54 -
,, 1, 57 9,, 551,, 7,, 551,, 551,, 7,, 7,, 551,, 7 12,, 10 12, 11 4, ( ), 59, 1993 11,, 5, 1992, ( ) 3843, 1999. 4. 15,, 3 6, w ww.kma.go.kr, hugsvr.kaist.ac.kr/ ~onion/ earthqu ake/, w ww.sonsan.or.jp, ww w.nla.go.jp, ww w.jma.go.kr - 55 -
< > 1. 2. 3. 4.
< > 1. ( 1998. 10. 10. 131 ) ( ) 1. ( ) 2 ( 96 105 ) 3 5 185 5 219 5 ( 9 2 ). 2. (. ) - 57 -
( ),, ( ) 100 30 100 50 ( ) 3.,,. ( ) 3. 2. 1. 3. 1. 4. 72 2 1-58 -
., ( ) 4 1 1 3. ( ) 4 2 ( 78 73 ) 9 1 (.) 3 1 9 3 ( ) (.). - 59 -
2., (.). ( ) 5. 2.. ( ) 6. 2.. 3. 1. ( ) - 60 -
7. 2. 4 2 2 4. 3. 2. ( ) 8. ( ) 9. 2.. 3. 1-61 -
. ( ) 9 2 311 2 1. ( ) 9 3 1 2 4 131 203 229 4 1, 187 1 220 1 123 1 ( 207 ) 225 1 ( 48 193 ) 9 3 1-62 -
2.. 3. ( ) 9 4 ( ). ( ) 10. ( ) 11 9 1, 3. - 63 -
2.. - 64 -
2. ( 1999. 3. 31. 142 ) ( ) 1 (.) 2 2 2, 2. ( ) ( 100 50 100 70 ) ( 100 20 100 50 100 20 100 70 ) 100 50 ( 100 3 100 20 ) - 65 -
100 5 ( 100 80 ) ( 100 30 100 80 ) 100 50 ( 100 10 100 30 ) 100 5 2.. 3. 1 1 3 2 2 2 (.). 4. 1 1. 5. - 66 -
( 1 1 3,.) 1 3. ( ) 2 2 2 4 5,000 1,000.,. ( ) 3 3 2 1 ( 32 41 ) 1 1 750 3 2 750 8,186 100 50, 8,186 100 95( 3-67 -
). ( ) 4 4 1. ( ) 5 4 2 1. 2. 4 2 1. - 68 -
3. 4 2 1. ( ) 6 (.). 4 2 1 6 1 2. 4. 3. 2 7 2. 4. 3-69 -
. 5. 1 2,. 7 10. 2.. 3. 4. 4.. 8. 2.. 3.. 4.. 5.. 6. 2. 7. - 70 -
- 71 -.
3. ( 1999. 3. 31. 28 ) ( ) 1 ( ) 2 2 1 (. ),, 30,,,. 2. 2 2 3. ( ) - 72 -
1 2 ( 66 164. ) 1 5 (.) 45cm. ( ) 1 3 ( 99 164 ) 3 3 2,814 3 2 8,186 1,640 7,000. ( ) 2 3 4. ( ) 3 4-73 -
. 2.. ( ) 4 6 1. 2.. ( ) 5-74 -
( ) 6 9 2. ( ) 7 1 2 ( ) ( ). (.) 2. 1 ( 1-75 -
). 3. 1 1 1 2. 4. (. ) (.).. 5. - 76 -
1.. 6. 1. 7. 3. - 77 -
4. 1 ( ) 1 (.),, (..),. 2.,. (1) (..) (..) 50% 70% (2) 20% 50% 20% 70% (3) - 78 -
3% 20% (4) 80% (5) 30% 80% (6) 10% 30% 3. 1 3 1. 4., (.),,. 5. 45cm ( 1,.),,. ( - 79 -
.,.). 6.,.,,. 2 1 3,. ( ) 2. (1), (, ) (2) (,, ).,. (3) (4),,,,, ( - 80 -
.) (5) (..) (. ), 2. l0. 3.. 14 ( ). ( ) 3. 2.,,. 3. 1. (1), - 81 -
(2) 4. 1. (1),,,, (2) (, 125 cc. ) (3),,,, 1 1 30 (4),,,, (5), ( ) 4 1 ( ). (1),.,. (2) 50%., 50%. (3) 5%., 5%. 2. - 82 -
(.). (1) 5,000 (2) l,000 3. (1966 73 )(.) 2 ( ) 2,, 1. (1) 5,000 (2) 1,000 4., 2 1-83 -
, 2 1 2 2. 5. 3. (1) 2 (2) 3 ( 2. ) a b a. 2 1 b. 2 1 6.. ( ) 5 2 1-84 -
( ). ( ) 6 4 ( ). 2. 4 ( ). ( ) 7 72 2 1.,. 2 ( ) - 85 -
8.. 2.. (1) (2) (3) 1 ( ). (4) 30 3., 1 1-86 -
., 4 ( ) 2. 4. 1 ( ) 1.. l3 ( ). 5. 1 ( ) 1. ( ) 9,.,. (1) 4 ( ) 2. (2). - 87 -
(3). (4)., 5. 2.., 3. 3. 1 (.). 4. 1 30. ( ) 10. (1). (2) 1 ( - 88 -
),,. 2. (1978 73 ) 9 ( ) 1 (.) 3 ( ) 1 9 ( ) 3 ( ).,.. ( ) 11., 22 ( ) 1. - 89 -
2.. ( ) 12.,. ( ) 13. ( ) 14 8 ( ) 2 3. 2. 9 ( ) 1. ( ) - 90 -
15. 2.,,., 1 ( ). 3., 23 ( ) 2.. 4. 1, 3,., 2. ( ) 16 8 ( ) 1. - 91 -
2. 9 ( ) 3., 1 ( ). 3. 12 ( ).. 4. 1 3,. 3 ( ) 17 1 ( ) 30. 2. - 92 -
. 3. 1. ( ) 18. ( ) 19 1 ( ), 1. 1. 2. (.) (.). - 93 -
( ) 20 1 ( ) 3 (.). 2... ( ) 21 17 ( ) 30.,. 2. 6 ( ) (.). ( ) - 94 -
22 4 ( ) 1 1. 2.., 4 ( ) 5. 3. 2. 4 ( ) 23, 2 ( ) 2 3. 2.. ( ) 24 4 ( - 95 -
) 4. ( ) 25. 8 ( ). 2.. 3. 2 ( ) 3. ( ) 26. ( 1) 27 1 ( ). - 96 -
2.,. 1 ( ) 2 1 3,. 3. 1 ( ). 4.. 5. 4 ( ) 1. ( 40%.). 6. 2 ( ) 2 4 ( ) 2 1 4 1. - 97 -
(1) = 4 ( ) 2 1 4 (2) = 4 ( ) 2 1 4 ( 2) 28. (1) 1 ( ) 6 (2) 4 ( ) 3 1 2.. (1) 3 ( ) 1 4 ( ) 1, 8 ( ) 3 9 ( ) 1 (2) 3 ( ) 2 (3) 3 ( ) 3-98 -
(4) 4 ( ) 2 (5) 4 ( ) 2 1 4-99 -
300,000 150,000 150,000 - ( 10 ) - ( 3 4 ) ( ) - - - -Insurance Bu siness Rep ort - : ( 3 4 ) 30,000 ( ) : 50,000 ( ) : 20,000 Insurance Business Rep ort( 4 ) : 20,000 : : 368-4265, : 368-4041 - : (067-25-0014-382) / (110-55016-257) : - : 6937009 1. :,,,, / :, / : / : / : / :
(KID I) 1. 2. 96-1, 1996. 4 96-2, 1997. 2 96-3 :, 1997. 3 96-4, 1997. 3 96-5, 1997. 3 96-6, 1997. 3 96-7 (I) :, 1997. 3 96-8, 1997. 3 96-9, 1997. 3 97-1, 1997. 5 97-2 :, 1997. 11 98-1 M&A : M&A, 1998. 1 98-2, 1998. 2 98-3, 1998. 2 98-4 ( ) :, 1998. 3 98-5, 1998. 3
98-6 :, 1998. 3 98-7, 1998. 6 98-8, 1998. 10 99-1 ( ) :, 1999. 2 99-2, 1999. 3 99-3, 1999. 3 99-4, 1999. 3 99-5 (Survival Analysis), 1999. 3 99-6 1999. 73 97-1, 1997. 10 97-2 98, 1997. 11 98-1 99, 1998. 11 1, 1997. 6 2, 1998. 3 3 1, 1998. 11 96-1, 1996. 2 96-2, 1996. 2 96-3, 1996. 10 96-4, 1996. 12 96-5, 1997. 3 97-1 (IIS) ( 33 ), 1997. 7 97-2 (PIC) ( 18 ), 1997. 9
98-1 ( I ), 1998. 2 98-2, 1998. 3 98-3, 1998. 3 98-4 M&A, 1998. 8 98-5 MAI, 1998. 8 98-6, 1998. 10 98-7 ( ) :, 1998. 12 99-1 ( ) :, 1999. 1 99-2, 1999. 3 99-3, 1999. 3 99-4, 1999. 6 99-5 : 1999. 7 Insurance Business Report 1, 1997. 5 2 OECD, 1997. 10 3, 1997. 11 4, 1997. 12 5 IMF, 1998. 3 6, 1998. 3 7, 1998. 5 8 :,,,, 1999. 2 9 (IT) :, 1999. 3 10, 1999. 3 11 IMF, 1999. 3
< >, ( ) ( ) (E-Mail : swlee@kidmail.kidi.co.kr, TEL : 02-368-4188) 99-7 - - 1999 8 6 35-4 368-4000 ISBN 89-88001-38-9 93320 10,000
- 105 -