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1 (ITST,998).,, ,.., (, 99;, 993,994). 998 (, 998)...,. - -

2 .,,.,......, , 993.,

3 993 (,994),. 983,

4 m. 000m. 000m,. cm.... / 4.,, ( ).,.. V,., / (,977)

5 ., 30., ,..,.... g h ( h ),.,.,., - 5 -

6 .,.. (,973)...,.,..,.,...3,,....,

7 ..4,..,, (,998)

8 ..,., ,,.,.,

9 ..5,

10 ( )..,.,.. t + [ u ( h + ) ] x + [ v ( h + ) ] y = 0 u t + u u x + v u y + g x + x = 0 (3.) v t + u v x + v v y + g y + y x, y, t, h,, u, v x, y, g, x/, y/ x, y. = 0. x = g f D u u + v, y = g f D v u + v (3.) D(=h+ ), f. f Manning n

11 f Manning n. n = f D / 3 g,. (3.3) x = g n D 4 / 3 u u + v, y = g n D 4 / 3 v u + v (3.4) x, y M, N u, v. M = u ( h + ) = ud, N = v ( h + ) = vd (3.5) 3.. t + M x + N y = 0 M t N t x ( M D ) + y ( MN D ) + gd y + g n D 7 / 3 M M + N = 0 (3.6) x ( MN D ) + y ( N D ) + g D x + g n D 7/ 3 N M + N = (, 998) Leap-Frog. x F(x) 3.. F { ( i - ) x } = E i -, F ( i x ) = F i, F { ( i + ) x } = F i + (3.7) F i - F i + Taylor - -

12 F i - = F i - x F i + = F i + x F x i + ( x ) F x i + ( x ) F ( x ) 3 x i - 6 F x i + ( x ) F x 3 i + ( x ) F x 3 i + ( x ) F x 4 i + O( x 5 ) 4 F x 4 i + O( x 5 ) Taylor 3.9. (3.8) 3. F x i = x [ F i + - F i - ] + O( x ) (3.9) 3.6. Leap-Frog 3. M N.. (i, j, k) (x, y) t.,

13 t M x N y = = = t [ k + i, j - k i, j ] x [ M k + i + - M k +, j i - y [ N k + i, j + ], j - M k + ] i, j - (3.7) 3. Leap - frog k k+/ k + i, j. k + i, j = k i, j - t x [ M k + i + - M k +, j ] - t i -, j y [ N k + i, j + - M k + ] (3.8) i, j -,, Convection,. x. M t + g D x = 0 (3.9) (i+/, j, k) ( M k + / i + /, j), M k + i + = M k -, j i + - gd k t, j i +, j x [ k i +, j - k i, j ] (3.0) ( D k i + /, j)

14 D k i + = h, j + k i +, j i + = h, j i + +, j [ k i +, j + k i, j ] (3.) y. N k + i, j + = N k - i, j - - gd k i, j - t y [ k i, j + - k i, j ] (3.) D k i, j - = h i, j - + k i, j - = h i, j - + [ k i, j + + k i, j ] (3.3) 3.8, 3.0, , 3., (h) 3.0, 3. (D). h 3.0, 3.. h. Leap-Frog Convection. Convection. F t + C F x = 0 (3.4) C. Leap-Frog ( 3-3),. F t = t [ F k + i +,, - F k - i + ] - t F t + O( t ) (3.5) C F x = C x [ F k - i F k - i - ] + O( x ) (3.6) ( F k + / i + / ) 3.7. F k + i + = F k - i + t - C x [ F k - i F k - (3.7) i - ] - 4 -

15 , 3.7 t +. x 3.8 F t + t F t + C F x = 0 (3.8) 3-3 Convection, F t = t ( - C F x ) = C F x (3.9) 3.8. F x + C F x = - t C F x (3.0). 3.7.,., C F x = C x [ F k - i F k - i + ] - x C F x + O( x ) (3.) - 5 -

16 C F x = C x [ F k - i + - F k - i - ] + x C F x + O( x ) (3.), x + t,. F t F t + C F x = - C ( C t + x ) F x (3.3) + C F x = C ( - C t + x ) F x (3.4) C C., x / t C... Leap-Frog x., Convection x. 3.6 Convection. x ( M D ) = x ( y ( MN D ) = y M k - j) i + 3, D k - i + 3, j + ( M k - k - i +, j + N i +, j + M k - j) i +, D k - i +, j + + D k - i +, j + 3 ( M M k - k - i +, jn i + k - j) i -, D k - i -, j, j D k - i +, j + 3 M k - k - i +, j - N D k - i +, j - i +, j - x ( MN D ) = x M k - i +, j + D k - i +, j + N k - i +, j + + M k - i,j + D k - i, j + N k - i, j M k - i -,j + D k - i -, j + N k - i -, j

17 y ( N D ) = y ( N k - i, j + ) 3 D k - i, j ( N k - i, j + ) D k - i, j ( N k - i, j - D k - i, j - ) (3.5), M k - i +, j 0, = 0, =, 3 = - < 0, =, = -, 3 = 0 N k - i + 0,, j = 0, =, 3 = - M k - i, j + N k - i, j + < 0, =, = -, 3 = 0 0, = 0, =, 3 = - < 0, =, = -, 3 = 0 0, = 0, =, 3 = - < 0, =, = -, 3 = 0 (3.6).., g n D 7 3 g n D 7 3 M M + N = N M + N = ( D g n k - j) 7 3 i +, ( D g n 7 3 k - i, j + ) ( M k + i + + M k -, j ( N k + i, j + i +, j) + N k - i, j + ) ( M k - ( M k - j) i +, i, j + ). + ( N k - j) i +, + ( N k - i, j + ) (3.7) k + i, j = k i, j - t x [ M k + i + - M k +, j i - j], - t y [ N k + i, j + - N k + (3.8) i, j - ] M k + i +, j = + x k - i +, j [( - x k - j) i + M k -, i +, j - 7 -

18 - t x ( M k - j) i + 3, D k - i + 3, j + ( M k - j) i +, D k - i +, j + 3 ( M k - j) i -, D k - i -, j - t y M k - k - i +, j + N i +, j + D k - i +, j + + M k - k - i +, jn i +, j D k - i +, j + 3 M k - k - i +, j - N D k - i +, j - i +, j - - g D k i +, j t x { k i +, j - k i, j (3.9) }] N k + i +, j = + y k - i +, j [( - y k - j) i + N k -, i +, j - t x M k - i +, j + D k - i +, j + N k - i +, j + + M k - i,j + D k - i, j + N k - i, j M k - i -,j + D k - i -, j + N k - i -, j + - t y ( N k - i, j + 3 ) D k - i, j ( N k - i, j + ) D k - i, j ( N k - i, j - ) D k - i, j - - g D k i, j + t x { k i, j + - k i, j (3.30) }], x k - i +, j = g n ( k - D j) ( i +, M k - j) i +, + ( N k - j) i +, (3.3) y k - i, j + = g n ( k - D ( i, j + ) M k - i, j + ) + ( N k - i, j + ) (3.3) - 8 -

19 D k i +, j = ( D k i +, j + D k i, j ) = ( k i +, j + k i, j ) + h i +, j (3.33) D k i, j + = ( D k i, j + + D k i, j ) = ( k i, j + + k i, j ) + h i, j + (3.34) D k - i +, j = = 4 ( D k i +, j + D k - i +, j + D k i, j + D k - i, j ) 4 ( k i +, j + k - i +, j + k i, j + k - i, j ) + h i +, j (3.35) D k - i, j + = 4 ( D k i, j + + D k - i, j + + D k i, j + D k - i, j ) (3.36) = 4 ( k i, j + + k - i, j + + k i, j + k - i, j ) + h i, j k-/.. k - i, j, M k - i +, N k -, j i, j + = 0 (3.37) k - i, j h i, j. h. k - i, j = - h i, j (3.38) 3.. Sine. Sine

20 Sine. Sine., u t t + g + h x = 0 (3.39) u x = 0 (3.40) u t + g h x ( g h ) = 0 (3.4), t ( g h ) + g h u x = 0 (3.4) { t g h x } ( u g h Riemann. u g h = Const, dx dt ) = 0 (3.43) = g h (3.44) t=0 x = x 0 x , u + g h = u + g h (3.45) u - g h = u 0 - g h 0 (3.46). x

21 u 0 0. u 0 = g h 0 (3.47) u - g h = u 0 (3.48) 3-4 x u = u 0 + ( u + g h ) (3.49) 0 0 = s in (k 0 ( x - x 0 )) (3.50). k 0. u 0 = g h ( k 0 ( x - x 0 )) = g h sin ( k 0 g h t) (3.5) - -

22 u. u = g h s in ( k 0 g h t) + ( u + g h ) (3.5) M k + i +, j = g h s in (k 0 g h( k + ) t) + ( M + g h ) (3.53) M. M = x [ g h M k - i -, j + ( x - g h t)m k - i +, j] (3.54) = x [ ( g h t - x )( k i -, j + k - i -, j ) + ( 3 x - g h t)( k i, j + k - i, j ) ] (3.55) x = x 0. u 0 = 0 = 0, and u = g / h (3.56). - -

23 u = u, or M k + i +, j = M (3.57) D = h + 0, 0, Homma.. Q = h g h, if h 3 h (3.58) = ' h g ( h - h ) if h 3 h h, h. =0.35, '=

24 ..,.. CFL. x t = g h m ax (3.59), t, x, h m ax. h m ax t CFL x.. CFL. x t x (x, y, t). t. (a), (b). (a) x-t 3.5 x-t.. t. M k i (i, k) - 4 -

25 x. 3.5 x - t, (A ), (B ) b - b ' 3.5(A) x.. t=0' Z t=0 M x x = n x., t=' Z t= M. Z M. 3.5(B). b-b' S( ) x. L( ) r x ( r>).., 3.5(B). x-t b-b'. S L. L, b-b' t= S Z ' L. b-b' - 5 -

26 L Z L S. S Z ' L. r Z L Z ' L S.. ( ) r 3. ( ) L b-b' S. ( ) 3.5(B) S b-b' L. x 3.5(B), S (A ) r=3, t= x - t

27 3.6 (B ) Z S ( I, K ' ) Z L ( I ', K ' ). S, L x S, 3 x L. 3.6 (C) Z L ( IE, K ' ) Z S ( IS + ' ', K ' )

28 3-6 (D ) M S ( I, K ) M L ( I', K ). 3-6 (E ) M S ( IS, K ) M L ( IE -, K ). (b) x,y-t. ( ) b-b' S L. ( ) b-b' L S

29 . 3.7 r =3, t= (x,y - t) S L. L S r 3 S 9. 9 ( 3.7 ).. Z L (, JE ) = Z S ( I ' +, 3) (3.60) 9. Z L (, JE ) = 9 I ' I ' = I ' + J ' = Z S ( I ', J ' ) (3.6). L S

30 ( ) (I'+) (I'+8)., M S ( I ' + 3, ) = (.0 M L (, JE - ) +.0 M L (, JE - )) / 3.0 (3.6) ( ) L. (I'+0). M S ( I ' + 0, ) = (.0 M L (3, JE - ) +.0 M L (4, JE - )) / 3.0 (3.63) L I'.. M S ( I ', ) = (5.0 M L (, JE - ) +.0 M L (, JE - )) / 3.0 (3.64) t t 3. t. 3.8 x-t 3.8 t :3 x - t S, L

31 S L S 3. L S., S ( k, k +, k +, ) M M. k M L ( k - 3) M L ' M. M. M. M L '' ( k + ) (A ) t :3 x - t. S, L Z

32 3.9(B ) S M. M L. L S 3.9 (C) S Z. S L - 3 -

33 3.9(D ) S, L M. M L. L S. 3.9 (E ) S Z

34 3.9 (F ) S M

35 4. 0. (, 99), (choi et al., 993)., (Choi et al., 993)., km (, 998), (, 999).,.,,., (Moving Boundary Method)(Imamura, 996). 4.,, 00km. 0m 0,000 0,000.,. (Imamura, 996),. (Yamato Rise),

36 ,. (, 999). (,997),..km, ( O) ( 70X70,.km),,.,

37 ..km., 0m 50m,.,. 3 (Imamura, 996), : m, m,, 4.4 4m K. 00m. 00m m, 4.4 C ,,.,

38 . O C 4 O A 3, B C 6..,, O A B C. km m 3.3 m 4.m X X X X

39 4. ( A) ( 96 X 970, 370m)

40 4.3 ( B) ( 580 X 955, 3.3m)

41 4.4 ( C) ( 50 X 487, 4m) - 4 -

42 4.5 () - 4 -

43 4.5 ()

44 4. 3. km,., , Model 0(Aida, 984), 993 DCRC-7a(,994). 4.6 B 3.3m ,.,.,.,.,,,,,.,

45 (, 999). ( ). 4.7.,...,. 3m :3 4m m. 4.8, 4m,., m, m., (999) , m

46 ,,, 4.., 4m,., 4m. km 3 4m, 4m,..,, PC., 4m,.,., (,990)., 4. (Energy Flux). E = E g h = g h (4.),, g, h B 4.4, C

47 (, x =3m)

48 (, x =3m)

49 (, x =4m) (, x =4m)

50 (, x =3m)

51 (, x =3m) - 5 -

52 (, x =4m) (, x =4m) - 5 -

53 (a) (b) 4.4 B

54 (a) (b) 4.5 C 983 B,.,. C. 983 (, 998)., B..,. 993 B. C

55 (a) (b) 4.6 B

56 (a) (b) 4.7 B , (, 985)..,.,.,,.,

57 ,.,...,..., O.., 0m., m

58 4.8 (a)

59 (b) , 3,,

61 .., Manning (Linsley et al, 979),. (, 998)

62 (, 984 ). (983),. (,984),. 983, 993 (, 993), ,...,

63 , (m)

64 90. 70%.. TV, ,.. / 3, ,,... TV, ,

65 ., m, 39cm, 390cm (,993). (983),, 0.5.0m,,,, m,, 3m, m, 4 5m ,. 75cm.. 300cm (984)

66 - 66 -

67 - 67 -

69 ,.,, m ,

70 , ,,.,..,.,.,.,

71 ,. ( 5.5). 359cm

72 983.,..,... ( 5.6),.,,.,.,. 7.5m m 563cm

73 , m

74 . 47cm., 5.9, 0m

75 .5m.., cm

76 . 400m

77 7. 7.,.., m [3m ], [4m ], [6m ], [8m ], [0m ] m [m ], [m ] 0.5m [0.5m ] 7. [ 3m ]

78 ( ) ( ) ( ).,

81 7..3.,,..,,....,..,.. 94 ( ), , 30 (SCAPIN 049 ).,, (, ) ( )

82 ., ,, (, ) 7.,,., (L-ADESS).,., ( - 8 -

83 ),, 4, , 960. ( ) 4, (EPOS) (ETOS) , ( ) 5., ( ) 3 5 0m, 00. Mp, () 80 NTT

84 6 (, ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ) ) ( 7.6) P, S,,, (P, S, 5 ), ( 5, ; )

85 . (),, EPOS ETOS, P,,, ETOS,

86 ETOS, 994 ( ) 7.8., P. (, ), ( ) P.,.,., , P.,

87 ( ). M = log (A n + A E ) / +.73 log (7.), M, A N, A E, ( m ), (km).,, 3. M,.,., , Mp., Mp P.,. Mp. (3)., 8, 6 ( 7.9)

88 7.,,,,.. 3m,. m.. m,. cm.. cm

89 ,.,,,.,,. (00km 00km )., km, 300km. ( ( ), ( ) ( ) )

90 . 7., (4).. ( ). ( ),,.,,.,

91 FAX.,,. (ADESS: ) ADESS,. ( ( ) ) L-ADESS, C-ADESS., ADESS..,, 994.,.,,..,.,.. 960, 965 (IOC) 4-9 -

92 , 966 (ICG/ ITSU). ( 97, 993, 999 ) , 6.. (NWS/ NOAA) (PTWC). PTWC. PTWC,,. NOAA (ITIC; IOC ) Communication Plan for the Tsunami Warning System "., 5, PTWC,. 7..4,.,

93 ,.... ( ).., ( ), ( ), (,,,, ), ( )..,,.. ()...., M,

94 log L = M / -.9, W= L /, log U = M/ - 3. (7.), L, W, U.. () 4km 00,. km., Green's Law. H = kh o h / 4 o (7.3), H ( m ), H o ( m ), h o ( m ). k. (3).,.,

95 . H (x ) = [ ( - l) { ( - k) h kh 00 } + l( - k)h kh 0 ] - M + [ ( - l) { ( - k) h 00 + kh 00 } + l{ ( - k) h 00 + kh }] M ( ).,.. 8., 6., 0 30km

96 .. 600km 4000,. 0.. () ( ), ( ),..,,.,., 3.0,.,., P (Mp),,. () ( )

97 . / / km 0km. (3) (strike) (dip, slip).,., 3..,. (4),,,..,

98 ,,, NIDP-98-06, 998,,,,, 9 II-3, pp , 999.,,, 6,,7-5,994,, Pelinovski,E.,"993,, 6 4, 404-4, 994,, 983,, 3 3,07-09,993,, 983,, 3 3, pp.07-9, 993.,, 99.,,, KRC-90H-J04,99 Aida, I. "A source model of the 983 Nihonkai-earthquake tsunami", Proc. Symp. Nihonkai Chubu Earthqu ake Tsunami, JSCE, pp.9-, 984. Choi, B.H., Lee, H.J., Imamura, F. and Shuto, N., "Computer anmation of marine process - Tsunami event", J. Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Eng., pp.9-4, 993. Imamura, F., "Review of tsunami simulation with a finite difference method ", Long-wave runup models, World Scientific, pp.5-4, 996. Imamura, F., "Review of tsunami simulation with a finite difference method ",Long-wave run-up models, World Scientific, pp.5-4, 996. International Tsunami Survey Team, "Preliminary report on the tsunami caused by Sissano earthquake at west Sepik, PNG on 7 July 998",

99 Linsley, R.K. and Franzini, J.B.,Water Resource Engineering, 3rd edition, McGraw Hill Kogakusha, Ltd, 979.,,, Ortis, M., ",, 4, pp.5-55, 984.,,998,,, 36,, pp.9-0, 998.,,,, No.35, pp.77-97, 985.,,,,,,Vol.6.,No.9,57-537, 984, ,,984,,, 990.,,,,, 44, pp.8-85, 997.,,973,,, pp.77-87,

100 (Ts u n a mi ) ( ), ( ), Ts una mi,..

101 .,.,.,.,...,.,

102 .. 983, 70cm m, 0m 8m.

103 ,.,.,.,.

104 983, 99, 993,. 994,,,, 996,, 998, 0 0.,..,,..

105

106 , ,., ,.,.,,,.

107 ,,...,.

108 - 7.0,. -, 3~ 4m ,3, 0. -, m,

109 ,.,. -,. -, (,, ),. -,. -, ~ 3.

110 -,. -,,

...... .............hwp

...... .............hwp - 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 - - 8 - - 9 - - 10 - - 11 - - 12 - - 13 - - 14 - - 15 - - 16 - - 17 - - 18 - - 19 - - 20 - - 21 - - 22 - - 23 - - 24 - - 25 - - 26 - - 27 - - 28 - - 29 - 53)