沪港通, 썸인가쌈인가 이홍주 Apr. 29, 2014 1
沪港通이란 2007 년 9 월 SAFE 에서港股直通车시범운영방안발표 2007 년 11 월원자바오전총리港股直通车에대한검토부족을이유로무기한연기 2014 년 4 월 10 일리커창총리 Boao 포럼에서홍콩 상해주식시장연결체제구축발표 2014 년 4 월 10 일中 CSRC, 港 SFC 에서沪港通시범운영관련연합공고발표 沪港通의개념 상해증권거래소와홍콩연합거래소의양지역투자자에대하여현지의증권사를통해규정된범위내의상대거래소에상장된주식거래를허용. 향후 6개월의준비기간을거쳐沪港通을정식실시예정. QFII/RQFII와같이역외투자자가중국본토주식투자하는기능갖고있으나시범시행단계에서는상대적으로제한적. 沪股通 ( 상해투자 ) 港股通 ( 홍콩투자 ) QFII/RQFI 투자한도 3,000억위안 2,500억위안 SAFE 승인한도 일일거래한도 130 억위안 105 억위안 N/A 거래통화 RMB RMB USD/RMB 승인한도 (2014.3.31 기준 ) QFII: 3,322억위안 RQFII: 2,005억위안 QDII: 5,369억위안 투자상품 투자자 SSE 180 지수편입종목 SSE 380 지수편입종목 A+H 동시상장종목 홍콩거래소계좌보유자 ( 추후세부규정확인필요 ) 항셍종합대형지수 항셍종합중형지수 A+H 동시상장종목 기관및개인 (50 만위안잔고 ) CSRC 규정한거래소상장된전부주식및채권 전세계라이선스취득자 주식거래결제미정미정 T+2 2
沪港通이란 沪港通거래구조 沪股通 ( 상해투자 ) 港股通 ( 홍콩투자 ) 홍콩투자자 中경내투자자 주문지시 주문지시 홍콩증권사 中경내증권사 주문입력 주문입력 HKEx SSE SSE 매매정보 HKEx 매매정보 매매체결 매매체결 A 주투자가능종목 홍콩투자가능종목 3
沪港通이란 沪股通결제흐름도 ( 예상안 ) HONG KONG SHANGHAI 역외투자자 주문지시 홍콩증권사 A 주일반투자자 결제대금예탁 주문입력 홍콩수탁은행 체결정보 HKEx 매매 / 체결정보 SSE 체결정보 체결정보 결제대금납입 홍콩통합결제은행 결제대금송금 상해통합결제은행 4
Why 홍콩 - 리커창총리의콤비네이션블로 促改革 调结构 惠民生 稳增长 심천前海경제특구, 상해자유무역구, 京津冀도시군등지역별발전계획발표은행대출금리자유화농촌토지양도제도개혁상업은행우선주발행제도승인沪港通의발표 6월, 12월의유동성쇼크 2월이래위안화환율절하 5
一高一低 - 환율, 금리는낮게 2 월시작된위안화절하는중앙은행의顺势而为 수출형경제실적개선효과 장기절상압력에서의공간확보 허위무역을통한차익거래차단 환율과금리 Cross border Arbitrage 의两大支柱 해외자본의그림자금융영향최소화 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) 외화환전계정 ( 우축 ) 위안달러환율 3 년만기국채수익율 6
一高一低 - 대형주가치는높게 우선주발행요건 : 핵심자기자본비율이 CBRC 심사감독요건에부합. ( 현재상장은행의핵심자기자본비율이모두 7.5% 이상으로모두우선주발행가능. 대형주와중소형주의괴리역대최고수준 역외저비용자금활용을통한대형주 Valuation 상승 대형은행우선주발행허용 - 투명하고공정한직접자본의역할부상 90 80 70 시장규모별 PER 변동추이 60 50 시장규모별수익률변동성 60 50 40 40 30 30 20 10 20 10 0 0 창업판중소판대형주 창업판중소판대형주블루칩 50.00% 펀드지수별변동추이 60.00% 중 / 소형주대비대형주펀드지수 Spread 40.00% 50.00% 30.00% 40.00% 20.00% 30.00% 10.00% 20.00% 0.00% 10.00% -10.00% 0.00% -20.00% -10.00% WIND 대형주펀드지수 WIND 소형주펀드지수 WIND 중형주펀드지수 중형주 - 대형주 Spread 소형주 - 대형주 Spread 7
沪港通의의 상하이와홍콩두금융중심지간의합작을통해중국자본시장의종합적인기능을강화하고두금융중심지의위상을더욱공고히함딤섬본드, RQFII에이어위안화의국제화의새로운통로를추가하여홍콩의역외위안화중심지역할강화본제도로인해양거래소에투자하는자본이순증할것으로기대. 다만, 기존의자본이상호교차되는수준에머무른다면본제도의효력은빛이바랠우려가있음 6개월의준비기간이있는바, 그동안수혜종목과비수혜종목간의양극화가진행되며양시장간괴리가줄어들것으로보임. 다만, 홍콩주식투자자와상해주식투자자의구조적차이, FX리스크등의이유로두시장의가격편차현상이완전히제거되지는않을것으로판단 가격괴리큰 A+H 동시상장종목, 시장간희소성종목 ( 카지노 & 로또, TMT 등 ), 양시장업무보유증권사종목, Valuation 괴리큰저평가섹터수혜예상. 8
한국에서도기회를 현재해외주식에투자하는한국의개인투자자중홍콩주식은전체의약 30%. A 주시장에대한진입이허락된다면본토주식및홍콩주식의점유율이 50% 를상회할것으로전망됨 한국투자자더욱저렴하고다양하게중국주식투자가능 증권회사들의중국본토주식관련상품출시기대 자산운용사의기존인덱스추종에서개별섹터 / 종목투자로차별화두어야 국가적高度에서한국의역외위한화허브역할구축필요성 9
Appendix - A+H 동시상장종목 H주 A주 가격괴리 회사명회사명 (Eng) 마감가격 (HKD, 마감가격 (RMB, 20 종목코드 (2014-04-28 종목코드 14-04-28 2014-04-28 2014-04-10 ) ) 浙江世宝 Zhejiang Shibao Company Limited 1057.HK 3.76 002703.SZ 18.31 512.54% 406.34% 山东墨龙 Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co.,Ltd. 0568.HK 2.25 002490.SZ 6.38 256.67% 256.78% 洛阳玻璃 Luoyang Glass Company Limited 1108.HK 1.93 600876.SH 5.26 242.82% 248.89% 东北电气 Northeast Electric Development Company Limited 0042.HK 0.94 000585.SZ 2.23 198.41% 172.54% 南京熊猫 Nanjing Panda Electronics Company Limited 0553.HK 4.6 600775.SH 9.38 156.49% 156.49% 重庆钢铁 Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited 1053.HK 1.13 601005.SH 2.23 148.23% 143.32% *ST 京城 Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited 0187.HK 2.45 600860.SH 5.2 166.97% 133.54% 昆明机床 Shenji Group Kunming Machine Tool Company Limited 0300.HK 2.16 600806.SH 4.48 160.89% 123.78% 新华制药 Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited 0719.HK 2.95 000756.SZ 5.09 117.03% 117.33% Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Company Li 创业环保 mited 1065.HK 3.98 600874.SH 7.42 134.51% 116.86% 洛阳钼业 China Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. 3993.HK 3.5 603993.SH 5.5 97.66% 99.05% 一拖股份 First Tractor Company Limited 0038.HK 4.51 601038.SH 7.1 98.02% 96.57% 上海石化 Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited 0338.HK 1.92 600688.SH 2.95 93.27% 94.10% *ST 仪化 Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre Company Limited 1033.HK 1.73 600871.SH 2.47 79.59% 90.67% 北辰实业 Beijing North Star Company Limited 0588.HK 1.83 601588.SH 2.59 78.03% 73.97% 经纬纺机 Jingwei Textile Machinery Company Limited 0350.HK 7 000666.SZ 8.83 58.67% 71.42% 上海电气 Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited 2727.HK 3.02 601727.SH 3.62 50.78% 58.72% 晨鸣纸业 Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited 1812.HK 3.79 000488.SZ 4.28 42.05% 58.44% 广船国际 Guangzhou Shipyard International Company Limited 0317.HK 13.74 600685.SH 17.14 56.91% 56.91% 郑煤机 Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co., Ltd 0564.HK 4.25 601717.SH 5.37 58.93% 56.32% 大连港 Dalian Port (PDA) Company Limited 2880.HK 1.9 601880.SH 2.57 70.14% 53.95% 紫金矿业 Zijin Mining Group Co.,Ltd. 2899.HK 1.9 601899.SH 2.2 45.65% 53.74% 东江环保 Dongjiang Environmental Company Limited 0895.HK 27.25 002672.SZ 33.57 54.96% 52.19% 四川成渝 Sichuan Expressway Company Limited 0107.HK 2.3 601107.SH 2.76 50.94% 48.10% 大唐发电 Datang International Power Generation Co.,Ltd. 0991.HK 2.99 601991.SH 3.55 49.34% 44.35% 中海集运 China Shipping Container Lines Company Limited 2866.HK 1.78 601866.SH 2.08 46.99% 44.30% 中国中冶 Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. 1618.HK 1.49 601618.SH 1.63 37.60% 41.01% 中国铝业 Aluminum Corporation of China Limited 2600.HK 2.89 601600.SH 3.12 35.80% 37.33% 金风科技 Xinjiang Goldwind Science&Technology Co.,Ltd 2208.HK 8.45 002202.SZ 8.8 31.00% 36.66% 金隅股份 BBMG Corporation 2009.HK 5.65 601992.SH 5.67 26.23% 29.62% 中国远洋 China COSCO Holdings Company Limited 1919.HK 3.15 601919.SH 3.04 21.39% 29.06% 白云山 Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited 0874.HK 23.15 600332.SH 22.47 22.09% 28.75% 兖州煤业 Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited 1171.HK 5.89 600188.SH 5.94 26.85% 28.11% 南方航空 China Southern Airlines Company Limited 1055.HK 2.3 600029.SH 2.4 31.26% 26.76% 深高速 Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited 0548.HK 3.51 600548.SH 3.49 25.07% 26.47% 东方电气 Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited 1072.HK 12.5 600875.SH 11.9 19.75% 26.46% 皖通高速 Anhui Expressway Company Limited 0995.HK 4.2 600012.SH 4.11 23.09% 26.08% 中信银行 China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited 0998.HK 4.72 601998.SH 4.85 29.25% 24.22% 比亚迪 BYD Company Limited 1211.HK 46.85 002594.SZ 46.25 24.18% 23.37% 中海油服 China Oilfield Services Limited 2883.HK 19.74 601808.SH 16.33 4.06% 10 23.29% 丽珠集团 Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc. 1513.HK 40.7 000513.SZ 41.56 28.44% 21.92%
Appendix - A+H 동시상장종목 海信科龙 Hisense Kelon Electrical Holdings Company Limited 0921.HK 9.4 000921.SZ 7.98 6.78% 21.61% 中煤能源 China Coal Energy Company Limited 1898.HK 4.18 601898.SH 4.11 23.68% 21.07% 民生银行 China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. 1988.HK 7.76 600016.SH 7.87 27.57% 19.03% 江西铜业 Jiangxi Copper Company Limited 0358.HK 13 600362.SH 12.21 18.14% 18.07% 东方航空 China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited 0670.HK 2.33 600115.SH 2.35 26.87% 17.00% 马钢股份 Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited 0323.HK 1.69 600808.SH 1.55 15.37% 13.01% 新华保险 New China Life Insurance Company Ltd. 1336.HK 22.55 601336.SH 19.72 10.00% 11.77% 中国石油 Petrochina Company Limited 0857.HK 8.95 601857.SH 7.48 5.13% 11.51% 中海发展 China Shipping Development Company Limited 1138.HK 4.45 600026.SH 3.96 11.94% 10.84% 长城汽车 Great Wall Motor Company Limited 2333.HK 35.25 601633.SH 31.6 12.76% 9.98% 广汽集团 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. 2238.HK 7.61 601238.SH 7.23 19.51% 9.06% 中联重科 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. 1157.HK 5.33 000157.SZ 4.68 10.45% 7.49% 海通证券 HAITONG Securities Company Limited 6837.HK 10.92 600837.SH 9.28 6.90% 6.15% 上海医药 Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.,Ltd 2607.HK 16 601607.SH 12.11-4.80% 4.72% 中集集团 China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd 2039.HK 16.18 000039.SZ 12.15-5.54% 4.66% 中兴通讯 ZTE Corporation 0763.HK 15.98 000063.SZ 12.9 1.54% 4.41% 广深铁路 Guangshen Railway Company Limited 0525.HK 3.07 601333.SH 2.52 3.25% 4.07% 光大银行 China Everbright Bank Co.,Ltd. 6818.HK 3.02 601818.SH 2.47 2.88% 3.95% 华电国际 Huadian Power International Corporation Limited 1071.HK 4.06 600027.SH 3.08-4.58% 1.18% 中国银行 Bank of China Limited 3988.HK 3.37 601988.SH 2.62-2.21% -4.32% 复星医药 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. 2196.HK 26.3 600196.SH 18.35-12.24% -4.46% 交通银行 Bank of Communications Co.,Ltd. 3328.HK 4.8 601328.SH 3.71-2.78% -5.05% 中国南车 CSR Corporation Limited 1766.HK 6 601766.SH 4.27-10.48% -6.53% 中国国航 Air China Limited 0753.HK 4.32 601111.SH 3.32-3.33% -6.57% 建设银行 China Construction Bank Corporation 0939.HK 5.32 601939.SH 3.98-5.90% -7.53% 中国石化 China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 0386.HK 6.93 600028.SH 5.07-7.97% -8.15% 工商银行 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 1398.HK 4.63 601398.SH 3.46-6.00% -8.68% 招商银行 China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. 3968.HK 13.7 600036.SH 10.06-7.63% -9.32% 农业银行 Agricultural Bank of China Limited 1288.HK 3.21 601288.SH 2.42-5.17% -9.52% 青岛啤酒 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited 0168.HK 56 600600.SH 38.31-13.95% -9.89% 中国交建 China Communications Construction Company Limited 1800.HK 5.22 601800.SH 3.68-11.32% -10.73% 中国中铁 China Railway Group Limited 0390.HK 3.58 601390.SH 2.47-13.21% -12.30% 华能国际 Huaneng Power International,Inc. 0902.HK 7.74 600011.SH 5.4-12.24% -12.56% 中国铁建 China Railway Construction Corporation Limited 1186.HK 6.58 601186.SH 4.3-17.80% -16.26% 中国神华 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited 1088.HK 20.95 601088.SH 14.05-15.64% -16.80% 中国平安 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. 2318.HK 58.45 601318.SH 38.09-18.03% -17.67% 中信证券 CITIC Securities Company Limited 6030.HK 15.62 600030.SH 11.17-10.05% -18.01% 中国人寿 China Life Insurance Company Limited 2628.HK 20.45 601628.SH 13.44-17.33% -18.11% 中国太保 China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. 2601.HK 24.8 601601.SH 16.09-18.39% -18.62% 宁沪高速 Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited 0177.HK 8.59 600377.SH 5.42-20.63% -19.41% 鞍钢股份 Angang Steel Company Limited 0347.HK 4.71 000898.SZ 2.84-24.15% -20.66% 潍柴动力 Weichai Power Co.,Ltd. 2338.HK 26.8 000338.SZ 16.7-21.62% 11-21.51% 海螺水泥 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited 0914.HK 28.15 600585.SH 16.56-26.00% -26.08%
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