: ㅇ [1.1(2) 0.4%(3)] [1.0(2) -0.4%(3)], 3 9 來 ㅇ [54.2(2) 51.3(3)] [68.0(2) 59.7(3)] : ㅇ 1 [7.9%(4/4) 7.7%(1/4)], 3 [9.9%(2) 8.9%(3 )] [21.8%(2) 10.0%(

Executive Br ief ing 2013 년 4 월호 (2013.4.26) 해외경제연구소산업투자조사실 월간국내외거시경제동향 I. 1 II. 3 III. 5 IV. 7 V. 9 : (3779-6685) Jaewoolee@koreaexim.go.kr (3779-6679) flydon@koreaexim.go.kr (3779-5327) nicekang@koreaexim.go.kr (3779-6677) yzkim@koreaexim.go.kr (3779-6680) dwsung@koreaexim.go.kr

: ㅇ [1.1(2) 0.4%(3)] [1.0(2) -0.4%(3)], 3 9 來 ㅇ [54.2(2) 51.3(3)] [68.0(2) 59.7(3)] : ㅇ 1 [7.9%(4/4) 7.7%(1/4)], 3 [9.9%(2) 8.9%(3 )] [21.8%(2) 10.0%(3)], [50.1(2) 50.9(3)] (50) (PMI : Purchasing Manager's Index) : '' 50 ㅇ [3.2%(2) 2.1%(1)] : ㅇ [0.3%(1) 0.6%(2)] [-1.1%(1 ) -2.2%(2)] [-2.9%(2) 1.1%(3)] ㅇ, : ㅇ [-0.6%(1) 0.4%(2)] [5.1%(1) -1.1%(2)], [12.0%(1) 12.0%(2)] : 高 ㅇ [11.6%(1) 12.1%(2)], [7.3%(2) 7.0%(3)], [6.3%(2) 6.6%(3)] - 1 -

주요국경제지표 (, %) 2011 2012 2013 2/4 3/4 4/4 1 2 3 GDP 1.8 2.2 2.1(1.3) 2.6(3.1) 1.6(0.1) - - - 3.4 3.6 4.5 3.3 2.7 1.9(-0.1) 2.5(1.1) 3.5(0.4) 8.0 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.9(-0.1) 4.4(1.0) 2.8(-0.4) 16.2 4.5 5.2 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.2-15.6 2.8 3.5 0.5-0.2-0.9 1.9-3.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.5 8.9 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.6 GDP 9.3 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.9 - - 7.7(1) 13.9 10.0 9.5 9.1 10.0-9.9 8.9 17.1 14.3 13.9 13.5 14.9-12.3 12.6 20.3 7.9 10.4 4.4 9.3 25.0 21.8 10.0 24.9 4.3 6.5 1.6 2.7 28.9-15.2 14.1 5.4 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.2 2.1 GDP -0.6 2.0 3.9(-0.9) 0.4(-3.7) 0.5(0.2) - - - -2.3-1.0 5.8-4.5-6.0-5.8(0.3) -10.5(0.6) - -1.2 2.2 3.2 0.5 0.1-1.1-2.2 - -2.7-2.8 4.8-8.2-5.5 6.4-2.9 1.1 12.0 3.8 5.1 0.3 0.5 7.3 11.9 5.5-0.3 0.0 0.1-0.4-0.2-0.3-0.7-4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 - GDP 1.4-0.4-0.5(-0.8) -0.7(-0.4) -0.9(-2.4) - - - 3.2-2.3-2.1-2.3-2.9-2.6(-0.6) -2.6(0.4) - -0.3-1.9-1.9-1.6-2.9-1.9(0.9) -1.4(-0.3) - 13.3 7.4 8.1 7.4 5.6 5.1-1.1-13.3 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.8 1.8-7.2-2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 10.2 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.0 - GDP 4.3 3.6 4.3 3.0 2.1 - - - 4.8 2.7 2.3 2.5 1.7-0.8-2.1 2.6 8.5 5.1 3.8 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.3 7.0 GDP 2.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.4 - - - 0.3-2.7-4.4-2.4-0.5 5.5-3.2-6.6 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.6 GDP 6.5 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.5 - - - 4.8 0.8-0.3 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.6-8.9 9.3 10.1 9.8 10.1 11.6 12.1 - - 2 -

2 : ㅇ 2 (3.2%), (1.9%), (-2.7%) 0.1% ( 1.8% ) : ㅇ 2, 6.5% ( 18.2% ) ㅇ 2 32.7% : ㅇ 3 低 ㅇ : ㅇ 2 (30.3%), (6.3%), (-4.0%), (-6.5%) 1.2% ( 9.8% ) ㅇ 77.8% 0.9%p : 1% ㅇ 3 () 1.3% 5 1%, 0.8% : ㅇ 3 3.5% (4.0%), 249,000 ( 58.4%) - 3 -

주요경제지표 ( : %) 2010 2011 2012 2013 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 p 1 p 2 p GDP 6.3 3.6 2.0 2.8 (0.9) 2.3 (0.3) 1.5 (0.1) 1.5 (0.4) - - 16.7 6.0 0.8 3.8 1.0-1.1-0.2 8.0-9.8 3.8 3.2 1.6 2.6 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.0 6.7 4.5 2.3 2.8 1.4 2.6 2.5-3.1 1.8 25.8 4.0-2.0 10.7-2.7-8.2-6.9-15.6-18.2 8.0 7.6-13.4-1.1-19.8-10.4-21.4-6.0-32.7 3.0 4.0 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 3.4 4.4 1.6 2.7 2.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.4 4.0 100.7 101.0 99.7 100.3 99.8 99.5 99.1 99.2 99.3 :,,,,, p ( ) ( ) 수출입및경상수지 2011 2012 2013 ( : ) 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1 2 3 5,552 (19.0%) 5,244 (23.3%) 1,348 (2.9%) 1,337 (7.8%) 1,401 (-1.7%) 1,304 (-2.9%) 1,331 (-5.8%) 1,256 (-6.9%) 1,398 (-0.4%) 1,298 (-1.1%) 457 (10.9%) 452 (3.9%) 423 (-8.6%) 403 (-10.6%) 475 (0.4%) 441 (-2.0%) 260.7 25.6 111.9 145.6 148.3 23.3 27.1 - - 4 -

3 : ㅇ 4 /, 1.32/ ㅇ / 2 100/ : ㅇ 4 / 1,140/, 1,118/ ㅇ / 1,205/100 / 1,120/100 : ㅇ 4 (10) QE3, 1.7% : ㅇ 4 (3), 2.4% 2.6% - 5 -

(%) (%) (%) 2011 금융시장지표 2012 2013 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 4.24 FF 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 EU 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 TB(3M) 0.008 0.076 0.092 0.099 0.053 0.071 0.058 0.053 (1.1) TB(10Y) 1.88 2.214 1.649 1.656 1.761 1.855 1.704 1.689 (4.15) (10Y) 0.99 1.000 0.849 0.780 0.802 0.571 0.605 0.463 (4.4) 3.34 3.55 3.30 2.79 2.82 2.52 2.61 2.44 (4.5) (AA-) 4.21 4.35 3.87 3.31 3.29 2.88 2.96 2.96 (4.24) (BBB-) 10.01 10.06 9.48 8.69 8.80 8.49 8.58 8.57 (2.27) / 76.9 82.9 79.8 78.0 86.8 94.2 99.5 87.1 (1.8) / 1.295 1.334 1.267 1.286 1.319 1.282 1.302 1.278 (3.27) / 1,152 1,133 1,145 1,111 1,071 1,111 1,118 1,055 (1.11) /100 1,485 1,381 1,454 1,442 1,248 1,180 1,126 1,120 (4.22) DJIA 12,218 13,212 12,880 13,437 13,104 14,579 14,676 13,329 (1.8) Nikkei225 8,455 10,084 9,007 8,870 10,395 12,398 13,926 10,487 (1.23) DAX 5,898 6,947 6,416 7,216 7,612 7,795 7,759 7,460 (4.19) 1,826 2,014 1,854 1,996 1,997 2,005 1,935 1,900 (4.18) 500 520 489 524 496 555 564 498 (2.5) :,,,, : (/):, (/100): : (, (AA-), (BBB-) 3.) () 0.129 (2.21) 2.230 (2.13) 0.847 (1.4) 2.82 (1.2) 3.30 (1.2) 8.81 (1.2) 99.8 (4.10) 1.364 (2.1) 1,140 (4.8) 1,236 (1.2) 14,865 (4.11) 13,926 (4.24) 8,058 (3.14) 2,031 (1.2) 564 (4.24) - 6 -

4 ㅇ 3, ㅇ 3, OECD ㅇ 4 22, : 2 ㅇ 4 4 : 4 ㅇ 4 :, ㅇ,, 4 ㅇ 3 4-7 -

($/) 2011 주요자원가격추이 2012 2013 3/4 4/4 1/4 4.11 WTI 98.83 92.19 91.82 97.23 93.51 Dubai 104.89 110.56 107.81 107.07 103.04 ($/BTU*) 3.0 3.32 3.351 4.024 4.139 () ($/ton) 111.1 86.75 93.75 89.86 89.78 ($/lb) 51.8 46.5 43.5 42.25 41.15 ($/ton) 142.0 107.5 141.0 136.0 137.5 ($/ton) 7,570 8,247 7,930 7,614 7,545 ($/ton) 18,280 18,550 17,085 16,540 15,955 ($/ton) 1,828 2,113 2,035 1,871 1,855 ( ) 97.94 (1.30.) 113.62 (2.13.) 4.139 (4.11.) 96.5 (2.6.) 44.0 (1.31.) 157.0 (2.22.) 8,286 (2.5.) 18,600 (2.4.) 2,187.5 (2.13.) :, KoreaPDS ) WTI /, / (NYMEX), (ICE),, // (LME), * BTU : British Thermal Unit 90.12 (3.4.) 103.04 (4.11.) 3.113 (1.9.) 86.9 (4.2.) 41.15 (4.11.) 136.0 (3.15.) 7,375 (4.4.) 15,930 (4.5.) 1,834 (4.3.) () CERA ('13.3.4.) EIA ('13.3.12.) PIRA ('13.2.26.) 주요기관의국제유가전망 2012 2013 (: $/bbl, $/BTU) 2014 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Dubai 109.05 102.9 98.43 95.0 101.4 91.81 89.60 87.27 85.85 88.63 Brent 111.67 107.3 101.8 98.0 105.2 95.3 93.8 92.25 90.75 93.0 WTI 94.13 89.74 88.86 89.75 90.69 89.93 89.03 87.28 86.31 88.14 WTI 94.12 90.33 91.33 92.00 91.92 92.67 92.00 92.00 92.00 92.17 Brent 111.55 110.0 114.0 114.0 112.9 - - - - - WTI 94.15 97.00 107.0 108.2 101.5 - - - - - 1) CERA: 美 (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) EIA: 美 (Energy Information Administration) PIRA: (Petroleum Industry Research Associates) - 8 -

5. :, ㅇ 3, 22.5% 256CGT (Clarkson) - 3, LNG, PCC - Clarkson 3 126 5 ㅇ 3 31.8% 56.8 ㅇ 3 26.4% 89.9 선박수주추이 2009 2010 2011 2012 73.9 (88.6) 451.3 (4.6) 313.2 (323.9) 497.5 (10.2) 481.6 (53.8) 565.9 (15.2) 299.8 (41.0) 397.4 (29.8) ( :, %) 2012 1/4 3 56.8 56.8 24.6 (31.8) (31.8) (32.3) 89.9 89.9 33.9 (26.4) (26.4) (12.5) : Clarkson,, 2009, 2010 1. ( ) : 3 ㅇ 3 0.6% 118.3-3 71.1% 20.3 3 : 1) 對 (8.2) 2) 對 (6.4) - 9 -

플랜트수주추이 ( :, %) 2009 2010 2011 2012 463.0 (0.2) 644.8 (44.0) 649.8 (0.8) 647.6 (0.3) : 1. ( ) 2013 1/4 3 118.3 (0.6) 118.3 (0.6) 20.3 (71.1) : ㅇ $18/kg - 4 10 18.6, 3 20 18.59 3 - - IT: - - 10 -

: ㅇ EIA 2012 6%(4.2 Bcf/d) 1997~2007 20%(11.7Bcf/d) ㅇ, - Lippman Consulting 2012 40%( 26 Bcf/d) - ㅇ - EIA 2015-11 -

: 3 2 3 SBHI(Small Business Health Index) () 100, 100, 100 중소제조업주요업황지수추이 :, 1. 2. (, ) - 12 -