아시아연구 16(1), 2013 pp. 105-130 중국의경제성장과보험업발전간의 장기균형관계 Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅲ. 실증분석 1. 분석방법 < 그림 1> 중국의보험밀도와국민 1 인당명목 GNI 성장추이 보험밀도 국민 1 인당명목 GNI
< 그림 2> 중국의주요거시경제지표변화추이 총저축액 금리, 물가, 실업률
< 표 1> 변수정의 변수명 정의 자료출처 LTP 국민 1인당보험료 Sigma(Swiss Re) ( 생보 + 손보 ) 로그값 Total premium volume LLP 국민 1인당생명보험료 Sigma(Swiss Re) 로그값 Life insurance premium volume LNP 국민 1인당손해보험료 Sigma(Swiss Re) 로그값 Non-life insurance premium volume LGNI 국민 1인당명목 GNI World Development Indicator(World 로그값 Bank) GNI per capita LSAV 국민 1인당총저축액 World Development Indicator(World 로그값 Bank) Gross savings RAT 예금금리 World Development Indicator(World Bank) Deposit interest rate INF 물가상승률 World Development Indicator(World Bank) GDP deflator UER 실업률 World Development Indicator(World Bank) Unemployment rate < 표 2> 기초통계량 ( 단위 : 달러, %) 최소치 최대치 평균 표준편차 국민 1인당전체보험료 1.3 158.4 30.75 41.87 국민 1인당생명보험료 0.3 105.5 19.73 28.38 국민 1인당손해보험료 1 52.9 11.02 13.53 국민 1인당 GNI 550 7,530 2,654 2,074 국민 1인당총저축액 93 2,869 582 640.5 예금금리 1.98 11.34 5.48 3.43 물가상승률 -1.25 20.61 6.01 5.24 실업률 2 4.30 3.21 0.81
2. 분석결과
< 표 3> 단위근검정결과 1) LTP LLP LNP LGNI LSAV RAT INF UER Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 수준변수 차분변수 수준변수 차분변수 Intercept 0.662-06 0.990 18 0.926-10 -26-1.062 Trend & Intercept -2.788-2.232-0.691-3.228-1.749-28 -2.362-2.452 Intercept Trend & Intercept -4.013-4.269 ** Phillips-Perron test statistic -4.317-4.225-3.711 ** -5.239-3.869-3.376 ** -4.679-4.560-3.917-3.821 ** -4.052-3.910 ** -49-3.970 ** Intercept 0.819-0.019 1.220 0.589 1.637-1.108-26 -17 Trend & Intercept -1.803-2.360-0.882-1.682-1.079-2.143-2.362-1.995 Intercept Trend & Intercept -42-4.778-4.348-4.229 ** -3.695 ** -9.189-4.021-3.744 ** -4.681-4.557-3.920-3.827 ** -3.938-3.711 ** -3.969-3.867 **
< 표 4> Johansen 공적분검정결과 ( 생명보험 ) 1) Hypothesized No. 0.05 Critical Eigenvalue Trace Statistic of CE(s) Value Prob. None * 0.9559 182.6344 95.7537 000 At most 1 * 0.8248 110.8631 69.8189 000 At most 2 * 0.6788 70.8033 47.8561 001 At most 3 * 0.6454 44.6810 29.7971 005 At most 4 * 0.4168 20.8345 15.4947 071 At most 5 * 0.3069 8.4326 3.8415 037 < 표 5> Johansen 공적분검정결과 ( 손해보험 ) 1) Hypothesized No. 0.05 Critical Eigenvalue Trace Statistic of CE(s) Value Prob. None * 0.9325 176.7708 95.7537 000 At most 1 * 0.8475 114.7601 69.8189 000 At most 2 * 0.7628 71.5094 47.8561 001 At most 3 * 0.5894 38.4202 29.7971 040 At most 4 * 0.4489 17.9484 15.4947 0.0209 At most 5 * 085 4.2451 3.8415 0.0394 < 표 6> Johansen 공적분검정결과 ( 전체보험 : 생보 + 손보 ) 1) Hypothesized No. 0.05 Critical Eigenvalue Trace Statistic of CE(s) Value Prob. None * 0.9553 204.6050 95.7537 000 At most 1 * 0.8431 133.1392 69.8189 000 At most 2 * 0.8359 90.5366 47.8561 000 At most 3 * 0.6404 48.9737 29.7971 001 At most 4 * 0.4978 25.4510 15.4947 012 At most 5 * 0.3415 9.6083 3.8415 019
식 식 식
< 표 7> VECM 검정결과 1) Error Correction: D(LTP) D(LLP) D(LNP) CointEq1 088 0.1887-0.0177 (-0.2156) (-0.1777) (-043) D(LLP(-1)) 0.2052 0.1141 0.2273 (-0.2518) (-0.4049) (-0.1827) D(LGNI(-1)) -2.3580-4.3272-2.7224 (-2.2811) (-5.3458) (-1.6118) D(LSAV(-1)) 1.7319 3.1890 1.2899 (-172) (-1.7587) (-0.6288) D(RAT(-1)) -0.0264-0.0527-058 (-0.0309) (-0.0611) (-0.0209) D(INF(-1)) 009-058 080 (-008) (-0.0140) (-067) D(UER(-1)) -002-0.2032-000 (-0.1958) (-0.3930) (-0.1489) C 099 0.2491 0.2524 (-0.2070) (-0.4033) (-0.1520)
< 그림 3> 충격반응함수 ( 생명보험 ) Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations Response of LLP to LGNI Response of LLP to LSAV - - Response of LLP to RAT Response of LLP to INF - - Response of LLP to UER - < 그림 4> 충격반응함수 ( 손해보험 ) Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations Response of LNP to LGNI Response of LNP to LSAV.20.20 Response of LNP to RAT Response of LNP to INF.20.20 Response of LNP to UER.20
< 그림 5> 충격반응함수 ( 전체보험 : 생보 + 손보 ) Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations Response of LTP to LGNI Response of LTP to LSAV.20.20 Response of LTP to RAT Response of LTP to INF.20.20 Response of LTP to UER.20
< 표 8> 분산분해결과 ( 생명보험 ) Period S.E. LLP LGNI LSAV RAT INF UER 1 0.1981 1000 000 000 000 000 000 2 0.2925 95.3148 0.0233 3.7404 028 0.2895 0.6293 3 0.3523 92.0724 2.3124 3.9705 0.0113 1.1550 0.4783 4 0.4056 90.9316 223 4.9993 0.4069 1.0302 0.4697 5 0.4569 84.7218 1.8107 11.4271 0.5303 1.1342 0.3759 6 0.4972 80.5529 1.5632 16.1119 0.4699 0.9819 0.3202 7 0.5342 78.5047 1.4148 18.3384 0.4818 0.9601 0.3002 8 0.5709 76.1762 1.4044 20.7112 0.4876 0.9546 0.2661 9 0.6026 74.6280 1.3318 22.4489 0.4650 0.8860 0.2403 10 0.6322 73.7551 1.2637 23.4289 0.4695 0.8572 0.2256 < 표 9> 분산분해결과 ( 손해보험 ) Period S.E. LNP LGNI LSAV RAT INF UER 1 0.0972 1000 000 000 000 000 000 2 0.1817 7749 5.1398 12.5047 1.6625 3.1402 0.3878 3 0.2678 56.5109 8.8199 2872 321 3.1152 0.4247 4 0.3434 4723 11.1796 34.5945 3.1465 3.7189 0.2782 5 0.4110 40.8357 14.0945 38.0719 2.8387 3.9478 0.2114 6 0.4742 36.6521 16.1968 40.2311 2.8326 3.8584 0.2291 7 0.5319 34.1360 17.2177 41.5917 3.0249 3.7565 0.2732 8 0.5837 32.5948 17.7390 42.4759 3.1783 3.7169 0.2951 9 0.6305 31.5289 1868 4333 3.2521 3.7062 0.3028 10 0.6741 30.7207 18.4512 43.5280 3.2961 3.6950 0.3091 < 표 10> 분산분해결과 ( 전체보험 : 생보 + 손보 ) Period S.E. LTP LGNI LSAV RAT INF UER 1 0.1181 1000 000 000 000 000 000 2 0.1808 86.6787 1.0655 11.8238 066 0.2073 0.0982 3 0.2330 67.6688 0.9392 30.9274 0.0775 0.3279 0.0593 4 0.2817 54.3206 1.5545 42.6480 0.3163 0.9547 0.2059 5 0.3331 43.6066 3.9975 50.3204 0.5218 1.3295 0.2242 6 0.3820 36.1073 644 55.8738 0.4076 1.3961 0.1708 7 0.4229 31.5910 6.9015 59.6225 0.3395 1.4049 0.1405 8 0.4574 28.8447 7.3269 61.9801 0.2903 1.4373 007 9 0.4891 26.8989 7.7267 63.5382 0.2578 1.4709 0.1076 10 0.5194 25.3440 8.0903 64.7505 0.2311 1.4879 0.0962
Ⅳ. 분석결과요약및결론
Nam, Sang-Wook* 1) Department of Finance and Insurance, Seowon University / International Risk Management and Insurance