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338% 4 TV(eMarketer, 2003. 8). 50 (52%) 2003 97-12 (12%) 4 (4%) 31 (32%) 116 (30%) 23 (6%) 2010 393 97 (25%) : TV : Informa Media Group, 2003. 5.; emarketer, 2003. 8. (: ) - 157 (39%) 2 26 TV, 2003 2010 (: ) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 In-Stat/MDR( 03. 2) 5,384 8,671 12,837 20,000 33,930 57,925 DisplaySearch( 03. 6)* 5,260 9,440 14,150 21,330 30,500 40,800 isupply( 03. 11) 2,240 3,570 10,000 18,860 31,740 45,100 JPMorgan( 03. 7)* 7,110 10,790 17,093 25,050 36,300 52,280 디스플레이 뱅크( 03. 12)* 6,300 10,500 17,400 26,300 35,800 47,400 삼성SDI( 03. 12)* 10,500 17,800 26,600 36,800 47,300 : 1. *CRT TVTV FPD(PDP, LCD, ) TV 2.,,, (LCD, PDP, CRT, TV), TV,, 2 27 TV ( ) 214
TV 1 TV, TV 2 27. TV TV. TV TV 2003 2007550%. 44) 2002 2003 TV TV 2007 TV 46. 45) TV TV 50%. 2 34 TV () (: ) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (%) isupply( 03. 11) 48.0 75.0 161.0 228.0 320.0 387.0 51.8% (: %) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 52.5 57.4 47.2 대수기준 Revenue 기준 42 30.4 22.6 23.5 17.2 17.7 13.1 9.5 2.9 4.4 6.4 2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E : (FPD) TVPDP TV, LCD TV, Projection TV : JPMorgan, 2003. 7. 2 28TV (FPD) TV 44) TV, isupply( 03. 11)2003TV 8. 45) DisplaySearch, JPMorgan, SDI, CRT TV In-Stat/MDRiSupply. 215
200311TV 2003TV 75 2007 387 51.8%. TVTV, 2003 6.4%, TV 30%. 2007 60% CRT TV. 2 292 35TV. 60 (: ) 50 LCD TV PDP TV Projection TV 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 : JPMorgan( 03. 7), (03.12), ( 03. 06) 2 29(FPD) TV TV TV, LCD TV. LCDPDP TV60% TV. 2003TV 40 60% TV2007, 15% LCD TV200760%. LCD LCD TVPDP TV PDP TV, 2007TV PDP TV 25 28%., PDP TVLCD TV, 216
LCD TVTV 2003 24%, 2007 56% PDP TV200316%, 2007 25%. 2 35 TV (: ) 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E JPMorgan( 03. 07) CRT TV 153.9 157.7 162 166.6 168.7 170.7 2.0% Projection TV 4.6 5.7 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.8 4.4% PDP TV 0.83 1.62 3.15 5.85 9.6 13.58 70.2% LCD TV 1.68 3.47 7.643 12.6 20.1 31.9 74.1% 160.9 168.5 179.1 191.7 205.1 222.9 7.3% ( 03. 12) CRT TV 154.8 153.2 155.8 157.8 152.6 144.1-1.4% Projection TV 4 4.8 6.6 8.1 8.9 10.2 20.9% PDP TV 0.8 1.7 4 7 9.4 11.6 72.5% LCD TV 1.5 4 6.8 11.2 17.5 25.6 77.2% 160.9 163.7 173.2 184.1 188.4 191.5 3.5% ( 03. 06) CRT TV 162 160 157 155 149 145-2.2% Projection TV 3.1 3.9 4.6 5.1 6 6.9 17.4% PDP TV 0.76 1.64 3.15 5.83 8.4 10.8 70.0% LCD TV 1.4 3.9 6.4 10.4 16.1 23.1 75.2% 167.3 169.4 171.2 176.3 179.5 185.8 2.1% SDI( 03. 12) CRT TV 152.1 157 161.2 158.3 154.9 0.5% Projection TV 4.6 5.5 6.2 6 5.8 6.0% PDP TV 1.7 3.5 7.2 10.5 13.5 67.9% LCD TV 4.2 8.8 13.2 20.3 28 60.7% 162.6 174.8 187.8 195.1 202.2 5.6% TV, JPMorgan SDI2003 40 60% TV TV4 6% 2007 TV 13%., TV17 20%2007 TV 217
20 25%. TV LCD, DLP PDPLCD TV. (MD) 17cm TV TV. (: ) 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 :, 2003. 12. 2 30 TV 2003TV 53%, 22.6%, 12.1%, 2007TV 32.3%. TV. 2.2 200340.6% TV2005 50% 5,600 TV (emarketer, 2003. 7). CEATV 2003430, 2004580, 2005830, 20061,190, 2007 1,620 (Displayserch, 2003. 12). 2007 TV TV (FCC) TV 218
. 2004100 HDTV ABI. (: ) 20 16 12 8 4 0 16.23 11.96 8.34 5.76 4.27 2.49 1.46 0.12 0.65 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CEA; Displaysearch 03. 12 2 31 TV FCCTV2007 13 TV VCR, DVD TV 200761 (2 36 ). 2 36 2004. 6. 1 2005. 6. 1 2006. 6. 1 2007. 6. 1 36 50% 100% 25 36 50% 100% 13 24 100% TV 100% : FCC(2002); (2003) TV 40% 2007TV 30%. 219
2.3 TV 200312, 2006, 2011. 20061,000, 20082,400, 2011 4,800. 2011 TV. 2003256 TV, 2003 TV 22%. TV, 2007 TV 76.2% TV CRTTV., LCD, PDP, LCD TV. 2 32LCD TV200317.1%2007 TV 62.0%. (: ) 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 11,610 11,795 87.9 2.2 9.6 78.3 4.2 17.1 10,990 11,090 68.3 7.9 23.1 48.9 12.0 38.1 12,080 37.4 12.5 49.0 12,540 23.8 12.9 62.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CRT PDP LCD :, 2003. 12. 2 32TV 2005TV TV. 13 TV. TV TV. 220
TV 2010, 2015 2008. 2 37 TV (: ) TV 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CAGR LCD 10 70 220 450 900 1,520 173.1% PDP 10 70 280 700 1,130 1,500 172.4% 50 220 750 1120 1,320 1,950 108.1% TV 70 360 1,250 2270 3,350 4,970 134.6% CRT 28,300 29,250 31,200 33,000 33,120 33,560 3.50% 28,370 29,610 32,450 35,270 36,470 38,530 6.30% :, 2003. 12. 20082005TV, 36TV2005 227, 2007 497., 2003TVTV61.1%., TV 2007 TV 40% TV. 3. TV 3.1 2003 2003TV70, 200214.7%. TV178. 221
2 38 2003() TV PDP-TV () TV CRT-TV LCD-TV () 2002 (, ) 2003 2003 () 2003 () 609,671 299,242 400,000 699,242 1,147,012 547,647 730,000 1,277,647 39,547 13,153 17,000 30,153 86,066 21,750 27,800 49,550 570,124 286,089 383,000 669,089 1,060,946 525,897 702,200 1,228,097 21,340 147,853 14,065 89,352 20,000 110,000 34,065 199,352 218,008 138,156 206,000 344,156 556,255 304,212 441,800 746,012 4,102 6,000 10,102 7,862 11,800 19,662 134,054 200,000 334,054 296,350 430,000 726,350 362,506 122,122 142,000 264,122 430,492 129,000 146,000 275,000 29,901 9,051 11,000 20,051 57,348 13,888 16,000 29,888 332,605 113,071 131,000 244,071 373,144 115,112 130,000 245,112 7,817 12,412 24,899 25,083 32,000 32,200 56,899 57,283 : 1. LCD TV PC/TV 63% 2. LG,,,,, 6 : (2003. 10), TV 4 3. 2003 TV TV(30,153 ) TV (52,616 )82,769. TV 4.3%TV. 222
(:, ) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 71,830 135,800 수량 281,900 금액 609,671 699,242 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 :, 2003. 10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 0 2 33 TV CRT TV TVTV 90%, TV200248%2003 61%TV. (:, %) 180 160 161 155 139 140 120 116 125 100 109 82 85 78 80 67 90 65 60 26.1 25.4 40 33.6 29.4 22.4 45.7 43.1 31.3 29.4 20.1 20.1 29.7 20 34.0 31.6 36.5 31.3 32.6 34.2 39.3 32.4 28.0 34.0 27.1 26.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 : 12 : KAIT, 2003. 11 2 34 2003TV 223
2003TV 1272, TV 200310, (3.1 ), (1 ), (0.9 ), (6.2 ), (3.1, ) TV30% (KAIT, 2003). LCD TV 2.8, PDP TV3.7, TV4.5 (, 2003). 3.2 TV. TV,..,, (, 2003. 11). LCD TVLG, 20033 21%. LCD TV 50% 2003 2003331%, /16%. LG5 2004LG-Phillips 28%, 23% 50%. 2 39,, TV R&D Sharp(LCD) FHP(PDP) Matsushita(PDP) (LCD) LPL(LCD) SDI(PDP) LG(PDP) AU(LCD) Chimeil(LCD) CPT(LCD, PDP) FPDC(PDP) Sony Matsushita Sharp Pioneer Hitachi LG Benq Sampo Viewsonic :, 2003. 11 224
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% : 20033 :, 2003. 12 0% Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Q103 Q203 Q303 기타 2 3 6 5 19 23 24 파나소니 13 9 8 8 7 6 8 Sony/AIWA 2 10 11 8 7 12 16 LGPL 10 12 10 8 6 12 8 삼성전자 18 15 17 19 9 11 13 Sharp 55 51 48 52 52 36 31 2 35 LCD TV PDP TVPDP 37%, 15%. TV,,. 28% Matsuhita 17% Sony 16% 7% LG 8% : 2003 :, 2003. 11 Hitachi 10% Pioneer 14% 2 36 PDP TV 225
, 3,000TV58% 1, 42PDP TV15% 1 TV., LG LCD TV 1. 4. TV 4.1 ITTV (Gateway), (Dell), HP (Apple)TV, TV. ITTVPC. TV,. 2 37 TV TV 8~20%, 30~50%.,, TV. PDP TV LCD TV 30 50% 8 20% TV 20 30% 30 50% 6 8% 20 30% (IC) 50 60% 10 15% 30 50% 30 50% 8 20% TV 15 25% 8 10% 30 50% 10 15% 20 30% 10 15% 2 37 TV 226
TV PC IT. IT, (Dell) PC 30%., IT 2 38., 3,000TVIT 2,3502,500. // TV TV 1,100 506( ) 594 IT Channel 2,300 IT Distributor : 6 8% IT Distributor : 3 4% IT Reseller : 12 15% IT Reseller : 12% 2,550 2,500 : Displaysearch, 2003. 12 Reseller : 5 12% 2,350 2,500 2 38 30LCD TV (IT ) IT TV. TV TV, TV CRT TV. IT. 2 TVPDP TV 227
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. PC,., :,, KISDI, 1523, 2003. 12, IT, 2003. 11. 19, 2004:, 2003. 11 TV, EIC, 2003. 12, TV,, KISDI, 2003. 3, TV, 2003. 12. 26, TV, 2003. 10,, (KAIT),, 2003. 11 LCD, EIC, 2003. 12. CNET News, HP, TV, 2003. 11. 19 CNET News,, LCD TV,, 2003. 10. 22 Digital Television, 2003: The Emergence of Advanced TV Services, emarketer, 2003. 8. DisplaySearch, HDTV Considered Inevitable and Biggerst Event in History of TVs, The DisplaySearch Monitor 2003. 12 JPMorgan, Flat Panel TV: Analysis & Outlook, 2003. 7 Kenny Kim, Worldwide Monitor and TV Market Forecast, 2003 Korea Display Conference Winter, 2003. 12. Ross Young, DisplaySearch s LCD TV Market Outlook, 2003 Korea Display Conference Winter, 2003. 12. Stanford Resources, Television Systems, 2002 230