11-148523-1331-1 대기모델링 정보지원 시스템을 위한 표준자료 구축 연구(Ⅱ) - CAPSS2SMOKE 프로그램 개발 기후대기연구부 대기공학연구과 Ⅱ 212
목 차 i
목 차 ii
목 차 iii
목 차 iii
Abstract v
Ⅰ. 서 론.., (Kim et al, 28). Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS). CAPSS 1km 1km. Transverse Mercator(TM),,.. CAPSS., CAPSS..., CAPSS2SMOKE,. 1
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 2
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 Meteorological Model Emission Modeling System Emission Source Anthropogenic Point Area Mobile Natural Biogenic DataBase GIS, Activity, SPECIATE etc. Emission Model Spatial Allocation Temporal Allocation Chemical Allocation Air Quality Model <그림 1> Emission Modeling System 3
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <그림 2> SMOKE core programs 4
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <표 1> Description of SMOKE core program 5
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <그림 3> Preparation process of SMOKE input data CAPSS2SMOKE, 3 SMOKE CAPSS2SMOKE. CAPSS2SMOKE, CAPSS2SMOKE., CAPSS 1km 1km. SMOKE. CAPSS Total Suspended Particle(TSP) PM1 6
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 PM2.5. PM1 PM2.5. CAPSS (127ºE, 38ºN) Transverse Mercator(TM) SMOKE Lambert conformal conic(lcc). SMOKE. IDA, ORL. 1km 1km 3km 3km 9km 9km... 7
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 8
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <그림 4> Weather map of the ozone episode 9
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 Temperature( ) Windspeed(m/s) Winddirection(degree) 4 Seoul 35 3 25 2 15 1 6-1 6-5 6-1 6-15 6-2 6-25 6-3 7-5 7-1 7-15 7-2 7-25 7-3 8-4 8-9 8-14 8-19 8-24 8-29 1 Seoul 8 6 4 2 6-1 6-5 6-1 6-15 6-2 6-25 6-3 7-5 7-1 7-15 7-2 7-25 7-3 8-4 8-9 8-14 8-19 8-24 8-29 4 Seoul 3 2 1 Humidity(%) amount of cloud 12 Seoul Insolation(.1MJ) 1 8 6 4 2 6-1 6-5 6-1 6-15 6-2 6-25 6-3 7-5 7-1 7-15 7-2 7-25 7-3 8-4 8-9 8-14 8-19 8-24 8-29 12 Seoul 1 8 6 4 2 6-1 6-5 6-1 6-15 6-2 6-25 6-3 7-5 7-1 7-15 7-2 7-25 7-3 8-4 8-9 8-14 8-19 8-24 8-29 1 Seoul 8 6 4 2 6-1 6-5 6-1 6-15 6-2 6-25 6-3 7-5 7-1 7-15 7-2 7-25 7-3 8-4 8-9 8-14 8-19 8-24 8-29 6-1 6-5 6-1 6-15 6-2 6-25 6-3 7-5 7-1 7-15 7-2 7-25 7-3 8-4 8-9 8-14 8-19 8-24 8-29 <그림 5> Meteorological analysis for the ozone episode 1
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <그림 6> Modeling Domains 11
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <표 2 > The configuration of MM5 12
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <표 3> The physical and chemical configuration for CMAQ and SMOKE * Lambert-Conformal, Map center : 38.N, 126.E 13
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <표 4> Comparison between previous and new standard SCC for CAPSS2SMOKE program 14
Ⅱ. 연구내용 및 방법 <그림 7> Example of temporal allocation <그림 8> Example of chemical allocation 15
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<표 5> Previous fuel code matching with CAPSS fuel code 17
<표 6> New fuel code matching with CAPSS fuel code 18
<표 6> New fuel code matching with CAPSS fuel code(continued) 19
PM2.5/PM1 Emission Ratio 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. Emission Ratio in 1995 Emission Ratio in 28 Aircraft Coatings Processes Farming Operations Food and Agriculture Fugitive Windblown Dust Incineration Mineral Processes Other Waste Disposal Industrial Classification Petroleum Refining Recreational Boats Unpaved Road Dust <그림 9> Comparison of PM2.5/PM1 emission ratio between 1995 and 28 2
<표 7> Previous PM2.5/PM1 ratio for the point sources <표 8> Previous PM2.5/PM1 ratio for the area and mobile sources 21
<표 9> Example of new PM2.5/PM1 ratio used in the CAPSS2SMOKE program 22
<표 1> IDA format for the area and mobile source inventory 23
<표 11> IDA format for the point source inventory 24
<그림 1> Example of spatial allocation 25
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<그림 11> Run script of CAPSS2SMOKE program 27
<표 12> Statistical performance of predicted meteorological result 28
Ⅲ. 연구결과 및 고찰 <그림 12> Distribution of wind field from Aug. 14 3:KST to Aug. 15 :KST 29
45 4 Seoul Observation Prediction Gangdong Observation Prediction 45 4 Ozone(ppb) 35 3 25 35 3 25 Ozone(ppb) 2 2 15 45 4 8/13/12 8/14/12 8/15/12 8/16/12 8/17/12 Bupyeong Date Seo 8/13/12 8/14/12 8/15/12 8/16/12 8/17/12 Date 15 45 4 Ozone(ppb) 35 3 25 35 3 25 Ozone(ppb) 2 2 15 45 4 8/13/12 8/14/12 8/15/12 8/16/12 8/17/12 Suwon Date 8/13/12 8/14/12 8/15/12 8/16/12 8/17/12 Yongin Date 15 45 4 Ozone(ppb) 35 3 25 35 3 25 Ozone(ppb) 2 2 15 8/13/12 8/14/12 8/15/12 8/16/12 8/17/12 8/13/12 8/14/12 8/15/12 8/16/12 8/17/12 15 Date Date <그림 13> Timeseries of temperature in 3 Air Quality Monitoring Station(AQMS) of the Seoul Metropolitan Area 3
<그림 14> Timeseries of wind fields in 3 AQMS of the Seoul Metropolitan Area 31
<표 13> Statistical performance of observed and predicted ozone concentrations 32
NO 2 (ppb) 1 8 6 4 2 Prediction Observation Seoul(Sang-gye) Ozone(ppb) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Prediction Observation Seoul(Sang-gye) NO 2 (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) 1 8 6 4 2 1 8 6 4 2 1 8 6 4 2 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Date Seoul(Han-nam) 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Incheon(Bupyeong) 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Gyeonggi(Suwon) Ozone(ppb) Ozone(ppb) Ozone(ppb) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Date Seoul(Han-nam) 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Incheon(Bupyeong) 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Gyeonggi(Suwon) NO 2 (ppb) 1 8 6 4 2 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Gyeonggi(Guri) Ozone(ppb) 12 1 8 6 4 2 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Gyeonggi(Guri) 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date <그림 15> Timeseries of NO 2 and Ozone concentration in the Seoul Metropolitan Area 33
LATITUDE LATITUDE LATITUDE 29/8/14/ 6KST 38.2 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 29/8/14/ 12KST LONGITUDE 38.2 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 29/8/14/ 18KST LONGITUDE 38.2 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 LONGITUDE 85 (ppb) 38.2 8 75 38 7 65 37.8 6 55 37.6 5 45 4 37.4 35 3 37.2 25 2 37 15 1 36.8 5-5 36.6 LATITUDE 85 (ppb) 38.2 8 75 38 7 65 37.8 6 55 5 37.6 45 4 37.4 35 3 37.2 25 2 37 15 1 5 36.8-5 36.6 LATITUDE 85 (ppb) 38.2 8 75 38 7 65 37.8 6 55 5 37.6 45 4 37.4 35 3 37.2 25 2 37 15 1 5 36.8-5 36.6 LATITUDE 29/8/14/ 9KST 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 29/8/14/ 15KST 29/8/14/ 21KST LONGITUDE 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 LONGITUDE 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 LONGITUDE 85 (ppb) 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 85 (ppb) 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 85 (ppb) 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 <그림 16> Horizontal distribution of NO 2 concentration on 14th, Aug. 34
LATITUDE 29/8/14/ 6KST 38.2 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 LONGITUDE 29/8/14/ 12KST 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 (ppb) 38.2 LATITUDE 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 29/8/14/ 9KST 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 29/8/14/ 15KST LONGITUDE 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 (ppb) LATITUDE 38.2 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 85 (ppb) 38.2 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 LATITUDE 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 85 (ppb) 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 29/8/14/ 18KST LONGITUDE 29/8/14/ 21KST LONGITUDE LATITUDE 38.2 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 LONGITUDE 85 (ppb) 38.2 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 LATITUDE 38 37.8 37.6 37.4 37.2 37 36.8 36.6 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.8 127 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.8 128 LONGITUDE 85 (ppb) 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 <그림 17> Horizontal distribution of O 3 concentration on 14th, Aug. 35
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<표 14> Regional Emission using different CAPSS2SMOKE program (ton/year) 37
1.2e+6 1.e+6 Previous system New system Total Emission (ton/yr) 8.e+5 6.e+5 4.e+5 2.e+5. 8 CO NOX SO2 PM2_5 PM1 VOC NH3 Pollutants Area Emission (ton/yr) 6 4 2 8e+5 CO NOX SO2 PM2_5 PM1 VOC NH3 Pollutants Mobile Emission (ton/yr) 6e+5 4e+5 2e+5 4 CO NOX SO2 PM2_5 PM1 VOC NH3 Pollutants Point Emission (ton/yr) 3 2 1 CO NOX SO2 PM2_5 PM1 VOC NH3 Pollutants <그림 18> Emission comparison between previous and new CAPSS2SMOKE programs 38
1.2e+5 1.e+5 Emission (ton/year) 8.e+4 6.e+4 4.e+4 2.e+4. -2.e+4 CO NOX SO2 PM2_5 PM1 VOC NH3 Pollutants Energy industry Non-Industry Manufacturing Industry process Energy transfer and storage Solvent Utilization Road Non-road Waste disposal Agriculture Etc area Fugitive dust <그림 19> Emission difference between previous and new CAPSS2SMOKE programs 39
<표 15> CMAQ-ready emission using different CAPSS2SMOKE programs (ton/year) 4
2e+5 NOx Emission(ton/year) 2e+5 1e+5 5e+4 Previos New Capss Previos New Capss Previos New Capss Area Mobile Point 2e+5 VOC Seoul Incheon Gyeonggi Emission(ton/year) 2e+5 1e+5 5e+4 5 Previos New Capss PM1 Seoul Previos New Capss Incheon Previos New Capss Gyeonggi Area Mobile Point 4 Emission(ton/year) 3 2 1 Previos New Capss Previos New Capss Previos New Capss Area Mobile Point Seoul Incheon Gyeonggi <그림 2> Emission calculated by source and region using two different CAPSS2SMOKE programs and CAPSS 41
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16 14 Previous system in Seoul y =.69x r =.69 New system in Seoul y =.74x r =.71 16 14 12 12 Prediction(ppb) 1 8 6 1 8 6 Prediction(ppb) 4 4 2 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 16 Previous System Observation(ppb) y =.71x 14 in Incheon r =.5 12 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 New system in Incheon Observation(ppb) y =.73x r =.59 16 14 12 Prediction(ppb) 1 8 6 1 8 6 Prediction(ppb) 4 2 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 14 12 Previous System in Gyeonggi Observation(ppb) y =.86x r =.54 New System in Gyeonggi Observation(ppb) y =.91x r =.63 14 12 1 1 Prediction(ppb) 8 6 8 6 Prediction(ppb) 4 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 Observation(ppb) 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 Observation(ppb) <그림 21> Comparison of correlations between predicted and observed ozone concentrations using different CAPSS2SMOKE programs 43
Ozone (ppb) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 12 1 Sang-gye Han-nam 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date Observation using New CAPSStoSMOKE using Previous CAPSStoSMOKE Ozone (ppb) 8 6 4 2 Ozone (ppb) Ozone (ppb) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 12 1 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Bupyeong Date 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Suwon Date 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Guri Date Ozone (ppb) 8 6 4 2 8/13/1 8/14/1 8/15/1 8/16/1 8/17/1 8/18/1 Date <그림 22> Timeseries of ozone concentration using different CAPSS2SMOKE programs 44
Ⅳ. 결 론 45
참 고 문 헌 46
참 고 문 헌 47