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2 (liberal imperialism) (Kurtz, ; Ferguson, ; Lal, ; Cooper, ).. (unipolar threshold). (Wohlforth,, - )..,,... CIA, (National Foreign Intelligence Board, ). (QDR ).,. (new liberal imperialism). (misgovern) (protectorates)., Chandler,.

3 (DOD,, )...,.,..... (Betts, / ; Kang,, ). (Huntington,, )... (strategic partner)., (force projection capability) (sea-lanes). ( ), (Kang,, -.).,.

4 ,, (Bernstein and Munro,, - )..,, (Johnston,, ).,.,.... (Johnston,, ).,.. (Brzezinski,, ).,.. (status quo),. ( ),

5 . (Organski and Kugler, ; Christensen,, ).. (preventive war) (Gilpin,, ).,..,,,,,,,, (Goldstein,, - ).,.... (ARF),. ARF (Goldstein,, ).

6 , (Goldstein,, )....,..,,.,.,...

7 ... (power projection capability)

8 .. /..,.. (policy of strategic ambiguity). :, (O Hanlon,, )..,,. (Taiwan Relations Act) (grave concern). (ROC)

9 . (protectorate) (strategic clarity). (Taiwan Security Enhancement Act).... (QDR ),.,.,,.,. (Glosny,, - ;.. -, -., Harding,, -. -.

10 Murray and Goldstein,, - ; O Hanlon, Goldstein and Murray,, - ).,,..... (O Hanlon, ; Ross, Fall ).,.,.. (freedom of navigation). (Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone).,.,,,, (Spratly) (Goldstein,, ). (maritime claim)

11 (Soh,, ; Goldstein,, - ). (fundamental interest of the US) (Torode, ; Goldstein,, )., (choke points)..... (Jianren,, - ; Goldstein,, - ).. (Quadrennial Defense Review: QDR), (precluding hostile domination of critical areas) (DOD, ).,.... (East Asian littoral).,. ` (Bay of Bengal) ` (DOD,, ).

12 ..,,,,,,,,, (McDevitt, )... (ADR : Annual Defense Review ), (Rumsfeld, ). (Asian littoral)..,... (the Philippine Defense Reform plan: PDR) (Revere, ).

13 .,... ( US security zone),,, U. (Gaddis,, - )...,,,,,,,.. (Gaddis,, - ) ,

14 .,.. ( ), - (war game) ( ).... ( ). (, )..... X, D. (The Japan Times, ).,,.

15 ...,... (, ).,

16 . ( ) ( ) ( ).... /.,, (RimPac).,,,, (,.. ).

17 .,....,,,... (Gill,, )...,,,.... / /.

18 . ( ) ( )..,. (Sick Man of Asia).,.... (Shanghai Cooperation Organization: SCO) / / / / (Shanghai Five) (Craig,, )..

19 (multi-polar structure). (Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation).. (Craig,, )., (strategic partnership) ( ).. /,. (CTBT),,... (Bin,, )., (Nuclear Posture Review ),. (preemption)..,, Bin,.

20 . (Bin,, - ). /. /,., /..,...,..,,..

21 ... /. ( ) (Cox Report)... (Weinberger, ) (Konovalov, ; Bin,, ). (IISS,, )... (Interfax, ; Bin, ). (IISS,, )... (global arms deliveries),

22 ....,, : (Mikhail L. Titarenko).,,,.....,.,., (global arms transfer agreements),,,..,.., (IISS,, )., (NATO)..

23 .,.,.. (unipolar threshold) ( )...., (Goldstein,, ). (defensive realism), (neoliberalism) (Yunling and Shiping,, )..

24 ,..... (victimhood complex). (great power mentality) (Gill,, )......

25 Bernstein, Richard and Ross H. Munro,, The Coming Conflict with America, Foreign Affairs, March/April. Betts, Richard K., /, Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold War, International Security, Vol., No. (Winter). Bin, Yu,, China and Russia: Normalizing Their Strategic Partnership, in David Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia s New Dynamics, Berkeley: University of California Press. Brzezinski, Zbigniew,, Living With China, The National Interest, No. (Spring ), in Owen Harries, ed., China in The National Interest, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers,. Chandler, David,, Imperialism may be out, but aggressive wars and colonial protectorates are back, Observer, April. China s National Defense,, (Beijing: Information Office of the State Council, October). China National Defense,, (Beijing: Information Office of the State Council, December). Christensen, Thomas J.,, Posing Problems without Catching Up: China s Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy, International Security, Vol., No. (Spring). Cooper, Robert,, The new liberal imperialism, Observer, April,. Craig, Timothy,, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Origins and Implications, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, September. Department of Defense,, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September. Department of Defense,, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February. Ferguson, Niall,, Colossus: The Price of America s Empire, New York:

26 The Penguin Press,. Gaddis, John Lewis,, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War, New York: Oxford University Press. Gill, Bates,, China s Evolving Regional Security Strategy, in David Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia s New Dynamics, Berkeley: University of California Press. Gilpin, Robert,, War and Change in World Politics, London: Cambridge University Press. Glosny, Michael A.,, Strangulation from the Sea?: A PRC Submarine Blockade of Taiwan, International Security, Vol., No. (Spring). Goldstein, Avery,, Rising to the Challenge: China s Grand Strategy and International Security, Stanford: Stanford University Press. Harding, Harry,, A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China since, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution. Huntington, Samuel P.,, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon & Schuster,. IISS(The International Institute for Strategic Studies),, The Military Balance, London: Routledge. Interfax (Moscow),, Chinese Army s Chief of General Staff Arrives in Moscow for Cooperation Talks, May. Jianren, Lu,, Yatai Daguo Zai Dongnan Yazhou Diqu De Liyi [Asia- Pacific great powers interests in Southeast Asia], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi, no.. Johnston, Alastair Iain,, Is China a Status Quo Power? International Security, Vol., No. (Spring). Kang, David C.,, Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks, International Security, Vol., No. (Spring). Konovalov, Alexander,, Analyst says Russia-China Military Trade to Be Above Billion Dollars in, Itar-Tass, April. Kurtz, Stanley,, Democratic Imperialism: A Blueprint: Lessons from the British in India, Policy Review, No. (April & May).

27 Lal, Deepak,, In Praise of Empires: Globalization and Order, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. McDevitt, Michael,, The Quadrennial Defense Review and East Asia, CSIS, Pacific Forum, PacNewsletter, October. Murray, William and Lyle Goldstein,, Undersea Dragons: China s Maturing Submarine Force, International Security, Vol., No. (Spring). National Foreign Intelligence Board,, Global Trends : A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts, (This paper was approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence, Prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council. NIC -, December. O Hanlon, Michael,, Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan, International Security, Vol., No. (Fall). O Hanlon, Michael, Lyle Goldstein and William Murray,, Correspondence: Damn the Torpedoes: Debating Possible U.S. Navy Losses in a Taiwan Scenario, International Security, Vol., No. (Fall). Organski, A.F.K. and Jacek Kugler,, The War Ledger, Chicago: University of Chicago Press,. Revere, Evans J.R.(Acting Assistant Secretary for East Asian and the Pacific),, U.S. Interests and Strategic Goals in East Asia and the Pacific, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, D.C., March. Ross, Robert S.,, The - Taiwan Strait Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force, International Security, Vol., No. (Fall). Rumsfeld, Donald H.,, Annual Report to the President and the Congress, August. Soh, Felix,, US Warns against Restrictions in South China Sea, Blcoc Press Tour to Spratlys, Straits Times (Singapore), May. The Japan Times,, Defense paper assumes China invasion of Japan, May. Weinberger, Caspar,, Foreword, in Kenneth degraffenreid, ed., The Cox

28 Report: The Unanimous and Bipartisan Report of the House Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military Commercial Concerns with the Peoples Republic of China, Select Committee of the United States House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, Inc. Wohlforth, William C.,, U.S. Strategy in a Unipolar World, in G. John Ikenberry, America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power, Ithaca: Cornell University Press,. Yunling, Zhang and Tang Shiping,, China s Regional Strategy, in David Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia s New Dynamics, Berkeley: University of California Press.,,,, ( ), pp. -,, :,, ( ), pp. -.,,...

5-김재철

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