We are your best resource JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "We are your best resource JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216"

효정 묘
6 years ago
Views:

1 Investment volume accelerates to record level Korea Property Digest I Q4 216 Q4 216 JLL Korea Property Digest Q

2 We are your best resource JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

3 We are your best resource Providing expert research consultancy services and economic, demographic and infrastructural insights to investors across office, hotels, retail, residential and industrial sectors. From bespoke consultancy to in-depth advisory, get in touch today. 오피스, 호텔, 리테일, 주거및물류분야투자자들에게경제, 통계, 구조적인측면의인사이트와전문적인맞춤형리서치서비스를제공합니다. 타당성검토 투자전략 사업확장전략 사례분석보고서 물리실사보고서 JLL Korea Property Digest Q

4 Seoul Office 4 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

5 Record sales volumes bolstered by the KRW 2.6 trillion disposition of IFC Seoul. Yongmin Lee, Head of Research, Korea Rental Growth y-o-y.5% pyung Per Month, net effective on GFA KRW 95,164 Stage in Cycle Rents Falling Reshuffling by major domestic tenants boosts demand Overall net absorption increased to 45,3 pyung, aided by the relocation of several major domestic tenants including affiliates of Samsung affiliates, Mirae Asset Daewoo and Daisha Securities, all of which took up space in the CBD. An uptick in expansion activity was also witnessed, led by WeWork which opened its largest office in Asia in the CBD (11, pyung) and Amazon leasing an additional 2, pyung in Gangnam. Daishin Securities HQ completes in the CBD NeThe only Grade A completion during the quarter was Daishin Securities HQ (GFA 16,11 pyung) which is located in the CBD. Daishin Securities relocated from a Grade B office building in Yeouido to occupy approximately half of the new building s GFA with WeWork contracting the remaining space. Overall vacancy declined 2 bps q-o-q to 11.8%. Gangnam recorded the greatest quarterly reduction in vacancy, declining by 46 bps q-o-q to 6.7%, aided by takeup at the recently completed Parnas Tower and further relocations of Samsung affiliates into Samsung Seocho Town. Record transaction volumes led by the sale of IFC Seoul Sales volumes for 4Q16 and 216 amounted to KRW 3.2 trillion and KRW 8. trillion respectively, both record levels. Activity was dominated by the KRW 2.6 trillion sale of IFC Seoul from AIG to Brookfield. Other deals of note included Blackstone s acquisition of Capital Tower and Orion Partners purchase of DSME Building. Overall net effective rents declined.8% q-o-q. The largest reduction was seen in the CBD where rents declined 2.3% q-o-q as landlords offered higher incentives to counteract current and pending vacancy. Outlook: Net absorption to slow in 217 Net absorption is projected to be negative for 217 due to several domestic tenants relocating to their own newly completed buildings; Hana Bank may consolidate to KEB Hana Bank New HQ in the CBD, LG Innotek and LG Electronics are planning to move into the LG Seoul Station Building and Amore Pacific are scheduled to depart Signature Towers. Changes in borrowing costs will be watched closely by investors and will be a key determinate of investor sentiment over 217, particularly for corefocused domestic investors. Nevertheless, quality offerings coming to the market are still likely to be warmly received by investors given the strong investor liquidity present in the market. Financial Indices Index Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Rental Value Index Arrows indicate 12-month outlook Index base: 4Q12 = Source: JLL Financial Indicators are for the CBD. Physical Indicators Thousand sqm Take-Up (net) Future Supply Capital Value Index 17F Completions Vacancy Rate Source: JLL For 212 to 216, take-up, completions and vacancy rates are year-end annual. Future supply is for 217. Physical Indicators are for the Overall market Percent JLL Korea Property Digest Q

6 IFC 약 2 조 6 천억원거래에힘입어, 년간오피스거래규모최대치기록 리서치이용민팀장 임대료변동 (CBD 전년동기대비 ) -.5% 실질임대료 (CBD, 원 / 전용 3.3 m2/ 월 ) 95,164 순환주기임대료하락 Financial Indices 국내대기업이전및신규수요로 A 급오피스사용면적증가 미래에셋대우증권의합병, 대신증권의신사옥입주, 삼성계열사의권역이전, wework의신규수요등으로 A급오피스사용면적은전분기대비약149, m2 증가함. CBD: 216 년말에준공된명동대신파이낸스센터 ( 연면적 53,328 m2) 에대신증권 6개계열사및 wework(36, m2) 가입주하여 % 계약된상태로신규공급되었으며, 미래에셋과합병한대우증권이센터원으로, 미래에셋자산운용 (8,6 m2) 이그랑서울로이전함. 모바일어플리케이션회사인얍컴퍼니 (3,2 m2) 가강남ICT타워에서트윈트리로이전하는등의수요가있었던반면, LG그룹이 LG서울역빌딩 ( 구 STX타워 ) 를매입한이후서울스퀘어에임차해있던 LG계열사가이전하기시작하여공실이증가함. 여의도 : 한화계열사인드림플러스 63(3, m2) 가 63빌딩에신규입주, 키움파이낸스증권빌딩에입주해있던린데코리아 (2,2 m2) 가 KTB 빌딩으로이전, 큐디파트너스, 허브인베스트먼트, 스퀘어앤컴퍼니, PT 캐피탈 ( 총 1, m2) 등의 IFC신규입주등으로여의도평균공실률은전분기대비.7%p 하락한 14.5% 였음. 강남 : 삼성서초타운의공실률 4.3% 의면적에는연초부터삼성화재가이전중인것으로알려짐. 216 년 3분기에준공된파르나스타워에는 CJ E&M (14,9 m2), NH 투자증권 (2,4 m2), Shire (1,7 m2), 오피뉴 (6 m2), 이도 (6 m2) 등이추가입주하여 4분기말현재입주율은 48% 를기록함. IT 업종민앤지 (4, m2) 가태광타워에라온시큐어 (2,4 m2) 가우신빌딩에입주. 서비스오피스패스트파이브가브랜드타워및도심공항타워에각각2, m2 및 1,2 m2 신규임대함. 대신증권신사옥명동대신파이낸스센터준공 명동대신파이낸스센터 ( 연면적 53,328 m2) 이 216 년말준공되었으며, 대신증권을비롯해대신에프앤아이, 대신저축은행등 6개계열사들이입주 217 년임차인 CBD의파인에비뉴 ( 임차인 :SK 건설 ), 시그니쳐타워 ( 아모레퍼시픽 ), 서울스퀘어 (LG), 그랑서울 ( 하나은행 ), 여의도의삼성생명빌딩 (SK증권) 등 217 년에기존임차인들이자가사옥또는 A급오피스이외의외부빌딩으로이전이계획되어있는빌딩들은향후발생될공실에대비하여임대마케팅중. 또한부영이삼성생명으로부터매입한부영태평로빌딩, 종로타워, 신한금융투자타워등의공실해소를위해빌딩간임대료할인경쟁이심화되어 CBD의임대료는전분기대비 2.3% 하락하였고, 여의도의임대료는전분기대비.8% 하락함. Index Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Rental Value Index Arrows indicate 12-month outlook Index base: 4Q12 = Source: JLL Financial Indicators are for the CBD. Office Rental Information Capital Value Index (Unit: KRW, per 3.3 m² per month) 실질월임대료 Effective Rent (Base on GFA) 4Q16 q-o-q y-o-y Seoul 91,812.8% 2.3% CBD 95, %.5% Yeouido 81,695.8% 5.% Gangnam 92,55.6% 3.9% Office 등급기준 : 주요업무구역에위치, 연면적약 3 만m2이상, 공실률 : 임대를목적으로하는오피스빌딩을대상으로, 실제입주 ( 이전 ) 기준으로하고있으며, 준공과동시에공실률조사샘플에포함. 임대료 : 준공전 후신규임차인은자산에대한적정임대료와다른경우가많음, 따라서자산이안정화되었다고판단되는준공 1년후, 임대 자산가치평가샘플에포함 q-o-q: 전분기대비 y-o-y: 전년도대비 Effective Rent (Base on GFA): 임대면적당실질임대금액 = Achievable Rents - Free Rent + Assumed profit on CAMs Net absorption: 전기대비오피스사용면적증감량 = ( 예시 ) 3Q14 오피스총사용면적 4Q14 오피스총사용면적 다른권역에비해비교적안정화된편이고, 대형임차인이탈관련뉴스가없는강남오피스의경우임대료할인을줄이거나임대료를소폭인상한빌딩들의영향으로임대료는전분기대비.6% 상승함. 6 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

7 Physical Indicators 역대최대오피스거래규모 216년 4분기및 216년오피스거래규모는각각 3.2조원및 8.조원으로당사조사이후최대규모임 주요매매사례로는AIG 가소유했던 SIFC ( 총연면적 55,236 m2, 오피스 3개동, 콘래드호텔, IFC몰로구성 ) 를브룩필드가약 2.6조원에매입하였으며, 미래에셋소유였던캐피탈타워 (62,748 m2) 를블랙스톤이4,48 억원에매입, 캡스톤자산운용이대우조선해양으로부터 DSME빌딩을 ( 연면적 24,854m2) 세일앤리스백방식으로매입, 캡스톤자산운용소유였던신도림미래타워 ( 거래면적 25,454m2) 를안정화후개별분양을목표로 IGIS가67억원에매입한사례등이있음. 12-month Outlook 향후 12개월이내에, A급임차인이선호하는양호한입지에공급될 A등급오피스는없으나, 파인에비뉴에입주해있던 SK 건설이 SK D&D가개발하는수송타워로이전, 시그니쳐타워에입주해있던아모레퍼시픽이용산사옥으로이전, 서울스퀘어에입주해있던 LG전자및이노텍등이 LG 서울역빌딩으로이전, 그랑서울및서울스퀘어에입주해있던하나은행계열사들이하나은행신사옥으로이전, 여의도삼성생명빌딩에입주해있던 SK증권이신규공급예정인여의도 K Tower 로이전등이발생하여 A급오피스주요임차인의이탈로인해공실률이상승할것으로전망됨. 217 년에공실증가예정인빌딩들은임차인입주단계혹은사옥매입단계부터단기임차할것으로알려졌던임차인들로, 임대인들은잠재공실에대하여시장임대료와유사한수준으로임대마케팅활동을진행중. 따라서, 서울의평균실질임대료는현재수준을유지할것으로예상됨. 도널드트럼프미국대통령의당선이후, 한국의장기국고채는전분기대비 75pbs 상승하여 2.15% 를기록하였으며, 투자기관을위한대출금리도 3 분기기준 2% 중반대에서 216 년말에는 3% 중반대로상승하였음. 금리변동에따라예상수익이낮아지는반면투자자의매입의지는여전히강해 A 등급오피스시장의평균수익률은현재수준인 4.5% 과유사하거나 217 년말전년대비 5 bps 수준으로소폭상승이예상됨. Thousand sqm Take-Up (net) Future Supply 17F Completions Vacancy Rate Source: JLL For 212 to 216, take-up, completions and vacancy rates are year-end annual. Future supply is for 217. Physical Indicators are for the Overall market. 공실률 Vacancy Rate 오피스사용증감면적 Net absorption Percent (Unit: %, %p) 4Q16 q-o-q y-o-y Seoul CBD Yeouido Gangnam Source: JLL Korea (Unit: m 2 ) 4Q16 3Q16 Last 12 month Seoul 149,437-17,487 77,464 CBD 56,128-89,496-55,33 Yeouido 7,326 1,277 1,61 Gangnam 86,283 7, ,892 Source: JLL Korea JLL Korea Property Digest Q

8 Seoul Retail 8 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

9 Anti corruption law impacts consumer sentiment Yongmin Lee, Head of Research, Korea Rental Growth y-o-y.5% pyung Per Month, net effective on GFA KRW 95,164 Stage in Cycle Rents Falling Consumer sentiment dipped to its the lowest level The September introduction an anti-corruption law which limits all public servants to receive gifts of a maximum of KRW 5, and meals of KRW 3, has reportedly had a negative impact on the restaurant and hotel industries. Consumer sentiment dipped to its the lowest level in 8 years in December following government countermeasures to stabile the real estate market and domestic political issues. Daegu Shinsegae Department Store opens Daegu Shinsegae Department Store (total GFA 275,862 sqm, department store GFA 91,793 sqm) opened in December and reportedly achieved over KRW 1 billion of sales revenue during its initial opening. The development includes an aquarium and children s theme park and is located adjacent to the Dongdaegu KTX Station. The development is a joint venture between Singapore's GIC and Shinsegae. Number of international luxury brands increases In upmarket Cheongdam, Herno (NLA 2 sqm) an Italian winter fashion retailer and lifestyle brand Peak launched their first Korean stores. In nearby Garosugil Canadian athletic apparel retailer, Lululemon opened its first Asian flagship store (NLA 6 sqm) in November. American sportswear brand, Under Armour are expected to open their first brand store under direct management (NLA 1,622 sqm) nearby at Sinnonhyeon Station in January. Actived retail investment GIC and NPS invested KRW billion into G Square shopping mall (GFA 137,386 sqm) in Anyang, a satellite city of Seoul. The property was sold subject to a master lease to GS Retail with 16.5 years remaining till expiry. M&G Real Estate acquired Up Square Mall (GFA 62,861 sqm) in Ulsan from Angelo Gordon for KRW billion. The property is located in the south-east industrial city of Ulsan which has some of the highest average household incomes in the country. Ryukyung PSG acquired a portfolio of five Homeplus shopping malls from MBK Partners for a total of KRW 644 billion. The properties are subject to 15 year leases and are situated in strong locations in Gimpo, Gimhae, Suwon, Gajwa and Dongdaemun. Financial Indices Indicators Index Index Q12 4Q13 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 Rental Value Index 4Q17 Arrows indicate Rental Value 12-month Index outlook Capital Value Index Index base: 4Q13 = Financial Indicators are for Prime high street shop Arrows in Myeongdong indicate 12-month outlook Index Source: base: JLL 4Q12 Korea= Source: JLL Financial Indicators are for the CBD. Physical Retail Sales Indicators Thousand sqm Take-Up (net) 17F Completions Future Supply Vacancy Rate Sales Growth of Large-scale Retail Stores in Seoul Source: JLL For Source: 212 Statistics to 216, take-up, Korea completions and vacancy rates are year-end annual. Future supply is for 217. Physical Indicators are for the Overall market. 12 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q Percent JLL Korea Property Digest Q

10 부정청탁및금품등수수의금지에관한법률소비심리에영향 리서치이용민팀장 임대료변동 ( 명동전년동기대비 ).5% 실질임대료 ( 명동, 원 / 전용 3.3 m2/ 월 ) 1,988,166 순환주기임대료상승 Financial Indicators 소비자심리지수 (CCSI) 29 년이후최저치 216년 9월말시행된 부정청탁및금품등수수의금지에관한법률 로외식업계매출이크게감소한것으로알려졌으며, 실수요자중심의 11.3 부동산대책으로주택거래급감. 추가적으로도널드트럼프당선이후대미관계및박근혜대통령에대한탄핵진행등대내외적인불안요소로소비자심리가얼어붙음. 대구신세계백화점오픈 Index 신세계와싱가폴투자청이함께개발한대구신세계백화점 ( 총연면적 275,862 m2, 백화점 91,793m2) 이 216년말오픈. 아쿠아리움, 어린이테마파크, 동대구 KTX, 고속버스터미널복합개발로높은접근성이확보되어개점이후 4일매출이 억원을넘었고, 217년 1월주말매출은약 4억원으로알려짐. 럭셔리인터내셔널리테일브랜드지속적으로오픈 이탈리안겨울패션브랜드 Herno ( 영업면적 2 m2) 및라이프스타일브랜드 Peak 가고급리테일브랜드가모여있는청담동에첫매장을오픈. 캐나다스포츠웨어브랜드 Lululemon ( 영업면적 2 m2) 이아시아최초플래그십스토어를가로수길에오픈 Q12 4Q13 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Rental Value Index Arrows indicate 12-month outlook Index base: 4Q13 = Financial Indicators are for Prime high street shop in Myeongdong Source: JLL Korea Retail Sales 18 어메리칸스포츠웨어브랜드언더아머가플래그십스토어 ( 영업면적 1,622 m2) 를오픈및직영으로본격진출하는등해외브랜드의한국진출이지속적으로이루어지고있음. 리테일투자확대 Thousand sqm GS 리테일이마스터리스한안양 G 스퀘어 ( 연면적 137,386m2) 를싱가폴투자청과국민연금이 4,546 억원에매입, 영국계부동산투자사인 M&G 리얼이스테이트가울산업스퀘어 ( 연면적 62,861 m2) 를안젤로고든으로부터 1,487 억원에매입, MBK 파트너스가보유한홈플러스포트폴리오 ( 김포, 김해, 수원, 가좌, 동대문 ) 을류경 PSG 가총 644 억원에세일앤리스백형태로매입하는등리테일에대한투자가활발했음 Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 Sales Growth of Large-scale Retail Stores in Seoul Source: Statistics Korea 1 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

11 JLL Korea Property Digest Q

12 Contacts JLL Korea office 23F Two IFC, 1 Gukjegeumyung-ro Yeoungdeungpo-gu Seoul Korea T JLL 영등포구서울시영등포구국제금융로 1 투아이에프씨 23층 T ASIA PACIFIC 9 Raffles Place #39- Republic Plaza Singapore tel fax AMERICAS 2 East Randolph Drive Chicago IL 661 tel fax EMEA 22 Hanover Square London W1A 2BN tel fax 스티븐크렉대표이사 Managing Director Country Head / Capital Markets steven.craig@ap.jll.com 장재훈상무 National Director Capital Markets / Property & Asset Management chaehun.chang@ap.jll.com 이한국이사 National Director Markets hankook.lee@ap.jll.com 조은성이사 Director Leasing ian.cho@ap.jll.com 정병화이사 Director Leasing danny.chung@ap.jll.com 김낙균이사 Director Retail nick.kim@ap.jll.com 김명식이사 Director Investment Sales & Leasing myoungsik.kim@ap.jll.com 리차드오어벨이사 Director Advisory richard.orbell@ap.jll.com 강용호이사 Director Project & Development Services david.kang@ap.jll.com 곽일웅상무 National Director Integrated Facility Management ilwoong.kwak@ap.jll.com 오은정팀장 Consultant Workplace Strategy eunjung.oh@ap.jll.com 이용민팀장 Head of Research yongmin.lee@ap.jll.com Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. For further details or to unsubscribe, please ap.research@ap.jll.com or yongmin.lee@ap.jll.com. The items in this publication have been compiled from the various sources acknowledged. The information is from sources we deem reliable; however, no representative or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. 본마켓리포트는 JLL Korea 의자체조사에의하여구축된 Data Base 에의해작성되었으며, 시장의전반적인흐름을파악하여부동산수요자및투자자, 그리고유관기관들의오피스시장에대한이해도를높이는데객관적인자료를제공함을목표로하고있습니다. 따라서, 개별특성및다양한변수가존재하는부동산시장의특징으로투자등의결과에대한법적책임소재와관련해증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. 12 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 216

2 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 2016

Korea Property Digest Q1 2017 The occupancy rate of all three major districts improves JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 2016 1 2 JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 2016 6 Office JLL Korea Property Digest Q4 2016