Seoul Office 2 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

Transcription

1 Korea Property Digest Q Slowdown in net absorption continues due to major tenant departures JLL Korea Property Digest Q

2 Seoul Office 2 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

3 Seoul Office Economy According to the Economic Outlook Report released by the Bank of Korea in April, the domestic economy continued to show a solid growth in line with the recovery of the global economy and robust exports. As for exports, the provisional export figures for March increased 6.1% y-o-y. In particular, exports continued to grow for the 17th consecutive month due to strong export performance in semiconductors and computer, steel and general machinery. In terms of equipment investment, machinery and transportation equipment rose 5.4% m-o-m in January, indicating strong momentum from the beginning of this year. Equipment investment in February rose by 1.3% m-o-m due to the continuing increase in investment in transportation equipment, although stopping short of reaching January figure. The investment continued to rise for the fourth straight month. Private consumption also showed a positive sign, as consumer sentiment and the number of foreign tourists started to recover. Retail sales in February were up 1.7% m-o-m due to increased consumption of durable and non-durable goods. According to the Employment Trend Report by Korea Statistics in March, employment increased in human health and social welfare (4.6%), public administration, defence and social security (5.7%) and construction (2.3%). The number employed in the financial and insurance sectors also increased, by 4.7% y-o-y to 829,000. However, wholesale and retail trade (-2.5%) and education (-4.0%) declined due to the recent rise in the minimum wage, as costs are relatively high in these industries. During the quarter, the number of employees increased in March turn out to be weak again, generating around new 110,000 employees, disappointing performance, after the February figure reached the lowest level in eight years. GDP and CPI (Unit: % growth y-o-y) 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: Oxford Economics GDP, real, LCU Employment by Industries Unit: 1,000 people Source: Statistics Korea Consumer price index Forecasts / / / / / / /1 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale and retail trade Financial and insurance Real estate and Professional, scientific activities leasing activities and technical activities Total number of employees Unit: 1,000 people Note: Seoul Office refers to Seoul s Grade A office market. JLL Korea Property Digest Q

4 Demand / Vacancy In, average net absorption of Seoul Grade A office space declined 42,336 sqm, the second consecutive quarter of decline. The primary reason for the negative net absorption came from large conglomerates relocating from major buildings in the CBD and Yeouido to their new owner-occupied space, resulting in the average vacancy rate for Seoul Grade A office space rising by 2.2% q-o-q to 13.8%. The demand breakdown analysis for Grade A and Grade B office space in Seoul shows that relocations took the biggest portion at 31%, followed by expansions and new business at 26% and 20%, respectively. For relocations, moves within the same core districts accounted for the biggest portion, at 36%. Relocations between core districts accounted for 19% and sub-market to core districts also for 19%. Major examples of relocations within the same core districts included Lotte Development (4,410 sqm), from Center 1 to Signature Tower in the CBD, and Exxon Mobil Korea (1,405 sqm), which is scheduled to relocate from LG Seoul Station Building to nearby Seoul Square in the same district, whereas in Yeouido, HUG (2,536 sqm) and Korea Investment Capital (1,676 sqm) are scheduled to relocate to FKI Tower from KTB Building and Korea Investment & Securities Building, respectively. CBD CBD net absorption was recorded at 49,377 sqm, which was the weakest level among the three districts, and the vacancy rate increased to 15.7% (+2.3%). The relocation of Amore Pacific (approximate space of 54,043 sqm), which occupied 50% of the space in Signature Tower, was responsible for most of the vacancy rate increase in the CBD. As for the new move-ins for Signature Tower, Lotte Development (4,410 sqm) leased oneand-a-half floors in the building from Center 1 in the same district. New leases in the building, including Tidesquare (2,838 sqm), currently occupying Pacific Tower, as well as Samgu INC (2,843 sqm) and Motonic (702 sqm), will partially help to manage the huge amount of vacant space in the building. In 101 Pine Avenue A, Hotel Silla (2,282 sqm), Ocean Networks (2,764 sqm) and SKT (1,814 sqm) have successfully moved into the building and occupancy is improving at a relatively brisk pace following the move of Shinhan Card in 4Q17. In addition, Amazon (4,380 sqm), which currently uses GS Gangnam Tower as its headquarters in Korea, has signed a new lease contract for expansion of its Customer Service Department and is scheduled to move into the building later this year. Another positive activity was seen in Gwanghwamun, as The-K Twin Tower reached a 100% occupancy rate following the move in of WeWork and Tefal during the quarter. Yeouido The vacancy rate in Yeouido Grade A office space jumped to 25.4% (+6.0% q-o-q), mainly due to LG CNS (approximately 47,000 sqm) completing its relocation from FKI Tower to its new building in Magok, and the new KTCU building coming on stream with an occupancy rate of 21%. Although net absorption of Grade A office space in Yeouido declined 4,134 sqm, demand for upgrades within the same districts and relocations from other core areas was relatively high, particularly for prime office space such as FKI Tower and IFC, which drove most of the leasing activity during the quarter. Major examples of physical move-ins included Lucky Dragon Travel (798 sqm), A & O (338 sqm) and Pan Pacific Airlines (997 sqm) moving into Two IFC, Zest C&T (1,694 sqm) moving into KTB Building (2,536 sqm), as well as FMK Korea (1,549 sqm) and Samjin Shipping (377 sqm) completing their moveins into FKI Tower. Examples of new leases in the district included Diageo Korea (2,861 sqm), Aramco (1,586 sqm), Lime Asset Investment Management (1,314 sqm) and Momentive Korea (1,090 sqm) taking up space in Three IFC. At FKI Tower, Korea Investment Capital (1,676 sqm) and Korea Digital Exchange (1,256 sqm) signed new lease contracts. Dongyang Cement (3,895 sqm) and Eugene Asset Management (1,947 sqm) are scheduled to enter Samsung Life Yeouido Building, which also contributed to the positive demand in the area. Gangnam Net absorption for Gangnam Grade A office space was recorded at 11,175 sqm during the quarter, the only district with a positive figure among the three major business districts. The vacancy rate also declined, by 0.6% to 4.6%, driven by major businesses moving into the district. For major move-ins in the district, Posco P&S Building welcomed Mugunghwa Trust (6,591 sqm) and Epson (2,521 sqm). Polus Biopharm (705 sqm) successfully moved into nearby ARC Place. Additionally, Hyundai Mobis (2,676 sqm) expanded at SI Tower, followed by Yulchon (706 sqm) at Parnas Tower and Alibaba Korea (668 sqm) at GFC, which also helped to further reduce the vacancy rate of the district. For Grade B activity, a co-working space operator, WeWork (about 12,000 sqm), leased 14 floors in PCA Life Tower and is expected to open its new branch in July. In addition, a domestic operator, MyWorkSpace (1,519 sqm), has signed a new lease agreement for A + Asset Tower, indicating continued expansion of the co-working industry. 4 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

5 Net Absorption for Grade A Offices in Seoul Unit: m 2 250, , , ,000 50, , ,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q CBD Yeouido Gangnam Demand Breakdown Demand Type, Relocation Breakdown, Others 12% Upgrade 11% New Business 20% Relocation 31% Expansion 26% Relocation from the other cores 19% Relocation from Relocation from sub-markets 19% Upgrade from the same district 26% the same core district 36% Vacancy Rate for Grade A Offices in Seoul 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Overall CBD Yeouido Gangnam JLL Korea Property Digest Q

6 Supply In Yeouido, The-K Tower (office GFA 79,770 sqm), which is the new name of the KTCU Building, completed in March. Approximately four floors of the high-rise building will be occupied by Korea Teachers Credit Union while the remaining 21 floors will be occupied by KB Securities, which will lead to 100% occupancy of the building. For the major Grade A supply forecast for later this year, Centropolis (office GFA 122,718 sqm) in the CBD is scheduled to complete in 3Q18. In Gangnam, Luceen Tower (office GFA 39,875 sqm) is scheduled to come on stream in May and N Tower (office GFA 41,824 sqm) will likely complete in the second half of the year. Rents In, the average effective rent for Seoul Grade A office space declined 1.2% q-o-q to KRW 88,531 per pyung. Although average face rents per month increased by 1% q-o-q and 3.4% y-o-y, largescale tenants moving into owner-occupied stock and the lingering vacant space continued to pressure landlords to increase their rent-free periods to an average of 3.3 months. In the CBD, net effective rents declined 0.5% q-o-q to KRW 91,213 per pyung, while in Yeouido declined 3.3% q-o-q to KRW 68,121 per pyung, which was the biggest drop among the three major districts. The recent increase of rent-free periods in some buildings in the CBD and major buildings recently faced with large amounts of vacant space in Yeouido have limited effective rent growth. On the other hand, effective rents in Gangnam increased 0.1% q-o-q to KRW 97,564 per pyung. Although the amount of increase is relatively small, the figure indicates the only positive trend among the three districts. Net Effective Rents for Grade A Offices in Seoul by districts Unit: KRW/py/month 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Overall CBD Yeouido Gangnam Investment Volume Unit: KRW trillion Unit: # of transactions Capital Markets The market yield during the quarter remained at 4.5%, aided by the positive investment sentiment and the ample liquidity continuing to remain strong from the previous quarter. The investment volume in was similar to the 1Q17 level, and sales of core assets were relatively active in light of the continuous momentum from last year. The biggest deal of the quarter was The-K Twin Tower (GFA 83,899 sqm) deal, which traded from Vestas Asset Management to Samsung SRA for KRW billion a recordhigh price of KRW 28.1 million per pyung. The trophy asset in Gwanghwamun was previously invested by KKR and LIM Advisors in Investment Volume No. of sales (RHS) JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

7 In the CBD, Pebblestone Asset Management completed the acquisition of Pacific Tower (59,500 sqm) for KRW 441 billion from Deutsche Asset Management. The company also acquired Hana Card Building (GFA 15,113 sqm) in the same district for KRW 73.1 billion from Hana Asset Management. Mastern Investment Management purchased KB Myeongdong Building (23,008 sqm) from KB Bank for KRW billion. Angelo Gordon is reportedly the biggest investor in the transaction and is expected to redevelop the building into a hotel / retail facility in the future. Outside the core area, Millinium Inmark Asset Management completed the acquisition of East Central Tower (100,423 sqm total floor space) located in Gangdong-gu from SL D&C for KRW 340 billion. In addition, JS Asset Management acquired Bundang Seohyun Building (GFA 17,439 sqm) from Intrus investment Management for KRW 52.5 billion. Market Yields for Grade A offices in Seoul 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q Spread Market Yields 10 Year Government Bond Yield Forecasts According to the most recent economic forecast released by the Bank of Korea, recovery in global economic growth would lead to a continuous rise in exports and equipment investment, and coupled with an improvement in private consumption, will result in GDP growth of 3.0% in The number of people in employment is expected to slow down in the first half of this year due to the restructuring of some industries and the service sector, which have been haunted by minimum wage increases. However, in March this year, the number of Chinese tourists who came to China finally recovered, and the number of foreign tourists is expected to recover gradually. Net absorption of Seoul Grade A office space is expected to improve in 2018 because we expect there will be fewer departures of conglomerates into their own office space, which was an issue that limited net absorption in In addition, the rapid growth of the financial and IT industries and co-working companies, supported by the momentum of economic growth and its active presence in the Seoul office market, are expected to contribute to positive net absorption in In particular, WeWork has successfully opened new branches at The-K Twin Tower, Seoul Square, HP Building in Yeouido and PCA Life Tower in Gangnam. The company has just signed new leases in Jongro Tower in the CBD for its further expansion. Domestic co-working players, such as Fast Five and Dreamplus, are also active, indicating that the active presence of these co-working players will lead to positive office demand and contribute to the occupancy improvement in core districts. Rent growth in 2018 is expected to recover from 2017 but is likely to be limited due to the lingering vacant space. Rent-free periods and other incentives continued to be expanded in the CBD and Yeouido, and will gradually lead to new tenants taking up space, which will eventually lead to a gradual reduction in incentives. Thus an effective rent increase will likely take place over the long-term. In addition, the landlord of Gangnam is expected to maintain its low vacancy rate due to the positive office demand and anticipation of a further reduction in the rent-free period, aided by demand from start-ups in the region and the IT industry, which are expected to be continuously active this year. The investment volume in 2018 is expected to remain robust, in line with last year's momentum, solid market liquidity and positive sentiment from domestic and overseas investors. Given the encouraging atmosphere in the current market and the size of the large office buildings to be traded, the possibility of setting a new record price for office buildings in Seoul is increasing. Upcoming deals expected to be traded later this year include Centropolis (office GFA 141,475 sqm) in the CBD, Samsung Seocho Mulsan (GFA 81,117 sqm), Samsung Life Daechi 2 Building (GFA 26,388 sqm) and Gangnam N Tower (GFA 51,119 sqm) in the Gangnam business district, and SK Securities Building (GFA 47,338 sqm) and Hyundai Card Building (GFA 37,207 sqm) in Yeouido. JLL Korea Property Digest Q

8 Major leasing deals in Contract Move in Tenant Industry GFA (sqm) Moved From Moved To Lotte Development Construction 4,410 Center 1 (CBD Grade A) Signature Tower (CBD Grade A) 3Q18 3Q18 Amazon IT 4,380 New Business WeWork Service 11,917 New Business 101 Pine Avenue (CBD - Grade A) PCA Life Tower (Gangnam - Grade B) 3Q18 Diageo Korea Manufacturing 2,861 Gangnam Finance Center (Gangnam Grade A) Three IFC (Yeouido Grade A) 3Q18 Tidesquare Service 2,839 Pacific Tower (CBD Grade B) Signature Tower (CBD Grade A) HUG Government/Institution 2,536 KTB Building (Yeouido Grade A) FKI Tower (Yeouido Grade A) 2Q18 SV Investment Finance/Banking 1,653 Teacher s Pension Building (Yeouido Grade B) Three IFC (Yeouido Grade A) 2Q18 Aramco Construction 1,587 Seoul Finance Center (CBD Grade A) Three IFC (Yeouido Grade A) 2Q18 Exxon Mobil Corporation Manufacturing 1,405 LG Seoul Station Building (CBD Grade B) Seoul Square (CBD Grade A) Office Rental Information Effective Rent (Based on GFA) (KRW/pyung/month) q-o-q y-o-y Seoul 88, % -2.4% CBD 91, % -2.5% Yeouido 68, % -12.7% Gangnam 97, % 4.1% Major Investment Activity Location Building Name Seller Buyer Deal Area Price CBD The-K Twin Tower Vetas Asset Management (KKR and LIM Advisors) Samsung SRA 83,899 m 2 KRW 713 billion CBD Pacific Tower Deutsche Asset Management Pebblestone Asset Management 59,500 m 2 KRW 441 billion CBD KB Myeongdong KB Bank Mastern Investment (Angelo Gordon) 23,008 m 2 KRW 241 billion CBD Hana Card Building Hana Asset Management Pebblestone Asset Management 15,113 m 2 KRW 73 billion Others East Central Tower SL D&C Millenium Inmark Asset Management 100,423 m 2 KRW 340 billion 8 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

9 Seoul Office Economy 한국은행이 4 월에발표한경제전망보고서에따르면, 지난해세계경제회복세와국내수출의증가세가이어지며국내경제는견조한성장흐름을보이는것으로판단. 수출을보면, 3 월수출잠정수치가전년동월대비 6.1% 증가. 특히, 반도체및주력품목인컴퓨터 철강 일반기계등의호조세로 17 개월연속수출이증가하며작년과같은성장세지속. 설비투자의경우올해 1 월기계류및운송장비투자는전월대비 5.4 % 증가하며올해초부터강한모멘텀을나타냄. 2 월설비투자는운송장비투자가늘어전월대비 1.3% 증가하며 1 월증가량에는못미쳤지만 4 개월연속상승세를이어감. 민간소비의경우양호한소비심리가지속됨과동시에외국인관광객수회복등으로인하여완만한회복세보이고있음. 최근발표된 2 월소매판매를보면, 내구재와비내구재소비증가로전월대비 1.7% 증가한것으로확인됨 년 3 월통계청고용동향에따르면, 산업별로보건업및사회복지서비스업 (4.6%), 공공행정 국방및사회보장행정 (5.7%) 및건설업 (2.3%) 등에서취업자가증가. 금융및보험업취업자수또한 82 만 9000 명으로전년동월대비 4.7% 증가하며 2 월에이어확대폭이늘어나는추세. 그러나, 최저임금인상여파로인건비지출이상대적으로큰도매및소매업 (-2.5%) 및교육서비스업 (-4.0%) 등에서감소세가지속. 전체적으로 3 월취업자증가수는 11 만 2000 명이었으나, 두달연속 10 만명대에그치며여전히증가폭이낮은편. 실질 GDP 성장률및물가상승률 (Unit: % growth y-o-y) 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: Oxford Economics 산업별취업자수 단위 : 1,000 명 Source: Statistics Korea 실질 GDP 성장률 물가상승률 Forecasts / / / / / / /1 제조업건설업도매및소매업 금융및보험업부동산업및임대업전문, 과학및기술서비스업 전체취업자수 단위 : 1,000 명 Note: Seoul Office refers to Seoul s Grade A office market. JLL Korea Property Digest Q

10 Demand / Vacancy 2018 년 1 분기서울 A 등급오피스의평균순흡수면적은 -42,336 m 2 로지난분기에이어둔화세가지속. 도심과여의도에서대기업이소유사옥으로이전한것이주요원인. 따라서서울 A 등급오피스의평균공실률은전분기대비 2.2%p 상승한 13.8% 를기록 년 1 분기의서울 A, B 등급오피스수요를분석한결과전체수요에서이전 (Relocation) 이차지하는비중은 31% 로가장높았고, 증평 (Expansion) 과신사업 (New Business) 이그다음으로비중은각각 26% 및 20% 로조사되었음. 이전수요를분류해보면, 동일 Core 권역내이전수요가 36% 로가장높았으며, Core 권역간이전과 Sub-market 에서 Core 로이전한비율이각각 19% 인것으로조사되었음. 동일 Core 권역내이전수요의주요사례로는도심권역의기존센터원에서시그니쳐타워로이전한롯데자산개발 (4,410 m 2 ) 및 LG 서울역빌딩에서인근서울스퀘어로이전예정인에쏘석유코리아 (1,405 m 2 ) 가있으며, 기존여의도권역안에서전경련타워로이전한주택도시보증공사 (KTB 빌딩, 2,536 m 2 ) 및한국투자캐피탈 ( 한국투자증권빌딩, 1,676 m 2 ) 등이있음. CBD 도심권역의순흡수면적은 -49,377 m 2 로세권역중가장저조한수치를기록하며공실률이 15.7% 로상승 (+2.3%p). 공실상승의가장큰원인으로는기존시그니쳐타워에서약 50% 의면적 ( 약 54,043 m 2 ) 을사용하던아모레퍼시픽이용산신사옥으로이전한데있음. 시그니쳐타워의신규입주로는센터원에서이전해온롯데자산개발이약 1 개층반 (4,410 m 2 ) 을임차하며입주를완료. 신규계약사례로는기존퍼시픽타워에위치한타이드스퀘어 (2,838 m 2 ) 가임대차계약을체결. 이밖에도삼구 INC (2,843 m 2 ) 및모토닉 (702 m 2 ) 등의신규임차수요로인해빌딩의대규모공실이부분적으로해소될예정. 또한 101 파인애비뉴 A 동에는호텔신라 (2,282 m 2 ), 오션네트웍스 (2,764 m 2 ) 및 SKT (1,814 m 2 ) 가입주를완료하며지난분기신한카드의입주에이어빌딩의대규모공실이비교적빠른속도로해소되어가는중. 101 파인애비뉴의신규계약사례로는 GS 강남타워에본사를두고있는아마존 (4,380 m 2 ) 이 CS 조직확대로인하여임대차계약을체결, 올해 3 분기입주할것으로조사되었음. 한편광화문에위치한더케이트윈타워에도이번분기위워크와테팔등이입주를완료하며입주율 100% 를달성. Yeouido 여의도 A 등급오피스의 1 분기공실률은 25.4% 를기록하며 ( 전분기대비 +6.0%p) 지난분기에이어공실이대폭상승. 전경련타워에입주해있던 LG CNS ( 약 47,000 m 2 ) 가마곡신사옥으로이전을완료함과동시에이번분기신규공급된교직원공제회빌딩 ( 현재입주율 21%) 이공실률상승의주된원인으로조사되었음. 여의도권역의 1 분기순흡수면적은 -4,134 m 2 으로조사되었으나, 타 Core 권역으로부터이전해온수요와동일권역내에서의 Upgrade 수요가많이발생하며, 기존공실규모가컸던전경련타워및 IFC 등 A 급오피스에서임대차활동이활발하였음. 1 분기주요입주사례로는 Two IFC 에 Lucky Dragon Travel (798 m 2 ) 및 A&O (338 m 2 ), Three IFC 에 Pan Pacific Airlines (997 m 2 ) 등이있었으며, KTB 빌딩에제스트씨앤티 (1,694 m 2 ) 가 3 월말입주를완료하였고, 인근전경련타워에는 HUG 주택도시보증공사 (2,536 m 2 ), 한국투자캐피탈 (1,676 m 2 ), FMK 코리아 (1,549 m 2 ) 및삼진선박주식회사 (377 m 2 ) 등이이번분기입주를완료. 여의도권역의신규임대차사례로는 Three IFC 에 Diageo Korea (2,861 m 2 ), Aramco (1,586 m 2 ), 라임에셋자산운용 (1,314 m 2 ) 및모멘티브코리아 (1,090 m 2 ) 등이포함되었으며, 전경련타워에는한국투자캐피탈 (1,676 m 2 ) 및한국디지털거래소 (1,256 m 2 ) 등이있었고, 삼성생명여의도빌딩에동양시멘트 (3,895 m 2 ) 및유진자산운용 (1,947 m 2 ) 이입주계약을체결하며권역의긍정적인수요에기여하였음. Gangnam 강남 A 등급오피스의 1 분기순흡수면적은 11,175 m 2 로 Core 권역중유일하게수요가증가하며평균공실률은전분기대비 0.6%p 하락한 4.63% 를기록. 강남권역내입주한주요비즈니스를중심으로오피스면적수요를견인하며당분기의공실률하락주도 년 1 분기강남권역의주요입주사례로는포스코 P&S 빌딩에무궁화신탁 (6,591 m 2 ) 및엡손 (2,521 m 2 ) 과 ARC Place 10 층에신규입주한 Polus Biopharm (705 m 2 ) 등을들수있음. 또한 SI 타워에현대모비스 (2,676 m 2 ), 파르나스타워의율촌 (706 m 2 ) 및 GFC 의알리바바코리아 (668 m 2 ) 는동분기동안증평한것으로확인. 권역내 Grade B 임대차활동으로는위워크 ( 약 12,000 m 2 ) 가 PCA 생명타워에약 14 개층을신규임차하면서국내 9 번째지점에대한계약을완료, 7 월에오픈할예정인것으로알려짐. 또한 A+ 에셋타워에는국내공유오피스업체인마이워크스페이스 (1,519 m 2 ) 가임대차계약을체결하며공유오피스업체들의권역내활발한확장이지속. 10 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

11 서울 Grade A 오피스순흡수면적 단위 : m 2 250, , , ,000 50, , ,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 도심여의도강남 오피스수요카테고리 Demand Type, Relocation Breakdown, Others 12% Upgrade 11% New Business 20% Relocation 31% Expansion 26% New Business 20% New Business 20% Expansion 26% Relocation 31% 서울 Grade A 오피스공실률 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Overall 도심여의도강남 JLL Korea Property Digest Q

12 Supply 주요 3 대권역에공급된 A 급오피스로는여의도교직원공제회사옥의새로운이름인 The-K 타워 ( 연면적 79,770 m 2 ) 의재건축이 3 월완료되었음. 고층부의약 4 개층은교직원공제회의자가사용으로입주를완료하였으며나머지 21 개층은 KB 증권이입주할예정으로공급과동시에입주율을 100% 달성할예정. 올해공급예정인주요 A 급빌딩으로는도심권역의센트로폴리스 ( 오피스연면적 122,718 m 2 ) 가 3 분기공급예정이며, 강남권역의루첸타워 ( 연면적 39,875 m 2 ) 가 5 월, N 타워 ( 연면적 41,824 m 2 ) 가올하반기준공예정으로알려짐. Rents 2018 년 1 분기서울 A 등급오피스의평균실질임대료는 88,531 원 / 평으로전분기대비 1.2%p 하락. 비록월평균명목임대료는전분기대비 1%, 전년동기대비 3.4% 상승하였지만, 대형임차인들이소유사옥으로이전함과동시에발생된공실률해소부담이지속되며서울 A 등급오피스의평균렌트프리기간이전분기대비 0.2 개월늘어난 3.3 개월로조사되었음. 권역별실질임대료는도심권역이 91,213 원 / 평으로전분기대비 0.5% 하락한것에그친반면, 여의도권역은전분기대비 3.3% 하락하며 68,121 원 / 평을기록, 세중심권역중가장큰폭으로임대료성장이둔화된것으로조사되었음. 이는최근도심권역의몇몇빌딩과여의도에서발생된대형공실로인하여주요빌딩에서의렌트프리기간이확대된데에서비롯한것으로분석. 한편, 강남권역의월평균실질임대료는평당 97,564 원으로전분기대비 0.1% 상승. 비록상승폭이미미하지만세권역중유일하게긍정적인추세를보임. 서울 Grade A 오피스권역별실질임대료단위 : 원 / 월 / 평 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Overall 도심 여의도 강남 상업용오피스거래규모 단위 : 조 단위 : 거래수 오피스거래규모 거래수 12 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

13 Capital Markets 지난 11 월말기준금리가 0.25% 상향조정되어금리상승으로인한시장수익률 (Market Yield) 에대한상승압력에도불구, 투자심리및풍부한유동성이지난분기에이어긍정적으로작용하며 2018 년 1 분기시장수익률은여전히 4.5% 를유지. 1 분기거래량은전년동기대비비슷한수준인것으로조사되었지만, 지난해에이어올해초부터 Core 자산들의거래가비교적활발하게이루어지며모멘텀이지속되는것으로분석 년 1 분기주요거래사례로는광화문의더케이트윈타워 ( 연면적 83,899 m 2 ) 로, 삼성 SRA 가베스타스자산운용으로부터약 7,132 억에매입을완료. 더케이트윈타워는 2014 년 KKR 과홍콩계 LIM Advisors 가투자한프라임자산으로이번거래는평당 2,810 만원을기록하며국내상업용빌딩가운데단위면적기준최고가를경신. 페블스톤자산운용은도심권역에위치한퍼시픽타워 ( 연면적 59,500 m 2 ) 를도이치자산운용으로부터약 4,410 억에매입을완료하였으며, 같은권역에위치한하나카드다동빌딩 ( 연면적 15,113 m 2 ) 또한하나자산운용으로부터약 731 억에매입을완료. 도심권역의또다른주요거래사례로마스턴투자운용이 KB 국민은행명동본점 (23,008 m 2 ) 을국민은행으로부터약 2,412 억에매입을완료. 이거래는안젤로고든이최대투자자인것으로알려졌으며추후호텔 / 리테일시설로의재개발을추진할것으로알려짐. Core 권역밖의주요거래사례들로는밀리니움인마크자산운용이강동구천호동에위치한이스트센트럴타워 ( 연면적 100,423m 2 ) 를 SL D&C 로부터약 3,400 억에매입을완료하였으며, JS 자산운용이분당서현동소재의분당서현빌딩 ( 연면적 17,439 m 2 ) 을인트러스투자운용으로부터약 525 억에거래를완료. 서울 Grade A 오피스시장수익률 (Cap-rate) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Forecasts Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q 한국은행이가장최근발표한경제전망보고서에따르면세계경제의성장세지속으로수출및설비투자가안정적인흐름을이어갈것으로예측하였으며, 또한민간소비의점진적인개선을근거 2018 년경제성장률을 3.0% 로전망하였음. 올해취업자수는최저임금인상여파로지목된서비스업종등일부업종의부진및구조조정등으로상반기증가세가둔화될것으로예측. 하지만올해 3 월마침내방한중국인관광객수의반등에힘입은외국인관광객수회복및정부일자리정책등으로인해취업인구증가폭이점차회복할것으로전망하였음 년서울 A 등급오피스의순흡수면적은 2017 년에비해더개선될것으로예측되며, 그이유로는지난해대형임차인들의사옥이전수요의영향이컸던반면올해에는작년수준에비하여그영향이더적을것으로점쳐지기때문. 스프레드시장수익률 (Cap-rate) 10 년만기국고채수익률 또한현재지속되는경제성장모멘텀과최근호조세를보이는금융및 IT 산업군그리고공유오피스업체들의가파른성장세역시서울오피스순흡수면적개선에기여할것으로예상. 특히공유오피스의경우올해초도심의더케이트윈타워와서울스퀘어및여의도 HP 빌딩에이어, 하반기강남 PCA 생명타워및도심종로타워에새지점을오픈할예정인위워크뿐만아니라패스트파이브, 스파크플러스등국내업체들도그확장세가지속되며주요권역의공실해소에긍정적인영향을미칠것으로전망. 임대료상승도마찬가지로 2017 년의수준에비해비교적회복될것으로전망되지만, 현존하는공실규모로인해그성장폭은제한적일것으로분석. 특히도심과여의도에서렌트프리및임대료할인혜택이적극적으로확대되는추세가공실해소로이어진다면, 결국점진적으로 JLL Korea Property Digest Q

14 인센티브수준이낮아지고, 따라서실질임대료인상이장기적으로이루어질것으로예측. 또한강남권역의경우안정적인수요에힘입어낮은공실률을유지하며렌트프리기간이추가적으로감소할것으로예측. 향후지난해에이어권역내스타트업및 IT 업계의오피스수요가올해도활발할것으로예상되기때문. 투자규모는작년의모멘텀이지속, 시장의견조한유동성과더불어국내및해외투자자들의심리가긍정적으로작용하면서거래가활발할것으로전망. 또한현재시장의고무적인분위기및거래될예정인대형오피스들의규모들을고려하였을때프라임급빌딩의역대최고가를연내경신할가능성이점점더커지는것으로점쳐짐. 주요거래예정사례로는 3 분기도심권역에준공예정인센트로폴리스 ( 연면적 141,475m 2 ) 와강남권역의삼성물산서초빌딩 ( 연면적 81,117 m 2 ), 삼성생명대치 2 빌딩 ( 연면적 26,3388 m 2 ) 및강남 N 타워 ( 연면적 51,119 m 2 ) 등이있으며, 여의도권역에는작년 2 분기신축공급된 SK 증권빌딩 ( 연면적 47,338 m 2 ) 및현대카드빌딩 ( 연면적 37,207 m 2 ) 등이있어 Core 자산의거래활동이지속적으로활발할것으로전망됨 년 1 분기주요임차사례 계약시기입주시기임차인산업군임대면적 (m2 ) Moved From Moved To 3Q18 롯데자산개발건설업 4,410 아마존 IT 4,380 신규 센터원 (CBD Grade A) 시그니쳐타워 (CBD Grade A) 101 파인애비뉴 (CBD - Grade A) 3Q18 위워크서비스 11,917 신규 PCA 생명타워 (Gangnam - Grade B) 3Q18 디아지오코리아제조업 2,861 강남파이낸스센터 (Gangnam Grade A) Three IFC (Yeouido Grade A) 3Q18 타이드스퀘어서비스 2,839 퍼시픽타워 (CBD Grade B) 시그니쳐타워 (CBD Grade A) 주택도시보증공사공공행정 2,536 KTB 빌딩 (Yeouido Grade A) 전경련타워 (Yeouido Grade A) 2Q18 SV Investment 금융업 1,653 사학연금빌딩 (Yeouido Grade B) Three IFC (Yeouido Grade A) 2Q18 아람코건설업 1,587 서울파이낸스센터 (CBD Grade A) Three IFC (Yeouido Grade A) 2Q18 에쏘석유코리아제조업 1,405 LG 서울역빌딩 (CBD Grade B) 서울스퀘어 (CBD Grade A) Office Rental Information 실질임대료 (Based on GFA) (KRW/pyung/month) q-o-q y-o-y Seoul 88, % -2.4% CBD 91, % -2.5% Yeouido 68, % -12.7% Gangnam 97, % 4.1% Major Investment Activity 권역 빌딩명 매도자 매수자 거래면적 (m 2 ) 금액 ( 억원 ) CBD 더케이트윈타워 베스타스자산운용 (KKR and LIM Advisors) 삼성SRA자산운용 83,899 m 2 7,132 CBD 퍼시픽타워 도이치자산운용 페블스톤자산운용 59,500 m 2 4,409 CBD KB국민은행명동본점 KB국민은행 마스턴투자운용 (Angelo Gordon) 23,008 m 2 2,412 CBD 하나카드본사 하나자산운용 페블스톤자산운용 15,113 m Others 이스트센트럴타워 SL D&C 밀리니움인마크자산운용 100,423 m 2 3, JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

15 JLL Korea Property Digest Q

16 Seoul Retail 16 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 Q

17 Seoul Retail Rental Growth Y-O-Y -1.3% pyung per month, net on NLA KRW 1,960,290 Stage in Cycle Rents Falling Recovery in consumption is on track in light of positive growth in retail sales. Sungmin Park, Head of Research, South Korea Retail sales continue to remain robust in 2018 Sales in the retail sector remained positive, hinting a recovery in consumption is on track; however, Consumer Sentiment Index declined due to uncertainty in interest rate hikes and a clamp down from the government on the housing market. The downturn in foreign tourist arrivals moderated to -16.5% y-o-y in February, as visitors from Japan and Southeast Asia recovered. For high streets, leasing activity during the quarter was focused in Gangnamdaero led by Health & Beauty (H&B) retailers - CHICOR (151 pyung) from domestic side and UK brand LUSH (99 pyung) opened new flagship stores, both of which added more vibrancy in Gangnam area. Financial Indices Index Korea's first Apple Store opens in Garosugil Apple s flagship store (total GFA 1,287 sqm) was finally completed in Garosugil during the quarter. The global tech giant signed a 20 year lease in the location and its presence has driven more foot traffic in Garosugil. High street vacancy increased 406 bps q-o-q to 13.0% due to departures of fashion retailers, namely YCONCEPTS and Hollister in Garosugil and Louis Quatorze in Cheongdam which vacated during the quarter. For shopping malls, occupancy modestly increased thanks to a successful tenant mix in IFC Mall and stable occupancy across shopping malls. Rent performance slightly improves Overall high street rents reverted to positive (0.3% q-o-q) driven by Garosugil and Gangnamdaero, thanks to their strong foot traffic and recent new store additions. Shopping mall rental performance slightly improved, 0.4% q-o-q, aided by positive retail sales in. Investment activity in the retail sector slowed during the quarter as the majority of deals focused on minor properties between private investors. The biggest deal during the quarter was Gwangmyung Building near Sinsa station, which traded between private investors for KRW 78 billion. Outlook: Consumption will continue to improve throughout the year Spending is likely to improve, underpinned by dedicated government policy to boost consumption, such as minimum wage hikes and public sector hiring. Additionally, anticipated recovery in Chinese tourists would revitalise overall sentiment for key retail locations. Rent performance is likely to improve in line with positive outlook in retail sales coupled with strong tenant demand for key shopping areas, although growing online sales may act as a headwind for further momentum. Private investors will lead investment activity in high streets whereas shopping mall sales volumes may be limited, due to tight nature of stock availability. y-o-y (%) 900 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q Rental Value Index Seoul Retail Sales Capital Value Index Arrows indicate 12-month outlook Index base: 4Q14 =100 Financial Indicators are for Prime high street shop in Myeongdong -9 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Sales Growth of Large-scale Retail Stores in Seoul Source: Statistics Korea Note: Seoul Retail refers to Seoul s prime retail market. JLL Korea Property Digest Q

18 Seoul Retail 임대료변동 ( 명동전년동기대비 ) -1.3% 실질임대료 ( 명동원 /3.3 m²/ 월 ) 1,960,290 원 순환주기 임대료하락 소비의완만한상승세로서울리테일상권회복중 리서치박성민부장 전분기이어소매판매량회복흐름지속 금리인상불확실성및주택시장에대한정부의규제로소비자심리지수가하락했음에도불구, 2 월소매판매량이전년동기대비 6.3% 증가하며소비의긍정적인회복흐름이지속. 2 월외국인관광객수는물론전년동월대비여전히마이너스를보이고있으나, 최근일본과동남아방한객수가회복되며중국과의소원한관계로인해줄어든외국인방문자감소폭은 2 월기준 ( 전년동기대비 -16.5%) 2017 년최저점대비확연히개선되었음. 서울중심가의경우신규임차인발생이강남대로에집중되었음. 국내뷰티브랜드인 CHICOR (499 m 2 ) 와영국의 LUSH (327 m 2 ) 가새로입점하며권역의활발한임대차수요에기여. 국내첫애플스토어가로수길오픈 가로수길의애플스토어 ( 연면적 1,287m 2 ) 가마침내올 1 월오픈. 애플은해당건물에 20 년장기임대차계약을체결한것으로알려졌으며권역의유동인구상승을견인할것으로기대. 서울중심가 (High Street) 를기준으로공실률은패션업체들의이탈로인해전분기대비 4.1%p 상승하며 13% 기록. 가로수길의 YCONCEPTS 와 Hollister 스토어가이번분기폐점하였고, 청담에서는 Louis Quartorze 가문을닫았기때문. 대형쇼핑몰의경우, IFC 몰의성공적인임차인재구성및타쇼핑몰들의안정적인입주율에힘입어 2% 미만대의공실률을유지. 소매판매량개선으로리테일임대료소폭회복 서울중심가의임대료는최근에신규임대수요가활발했던가로수길및강남대로에지역에힘입어전분기대비 0.3% 상승. 쇼핑몰또한 1 분기소매판매량회복에긍정적인영향으로임대료가전분기대비 0.4% 상승한것으로파악. 리테일투자규모는이번분기동안개인투자자간의소규모거래에집중되며전분기대비소폭하락. 주목할만한거래로는신사역인근에위치한광명빌딩 ( 연면적 3,210 m 2 ) 으로약 780 억에거래되었음. 12-month Outlook 리테일소비는정부의공공부문고용확대와소비증진정책에힘입어점진적으로더개선될전망. 또한중국인관광객수의반등은서울리테일시장의전반적인분위기에새로운활력을불어넣을예정. 향후소매판매의긍정적인전망과주요상권지역에대한강한입주수요의영향으로임대료수준은개선될것으로예측. 또한쇼핑몰의경우, 온라인판매량의거듭된성장으로인해임대료상승세가제한적일것으로분석. 리테일투자의경우, 서울중심가의거래는개인투자자들의활동이지속적으로활발할것으로예측되며, 쇼핑몰의경우상대적으로한정된투자가능물량으로인해거래규모가제한적일것으로전망. Index Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q19 Rental Value Index Capital Value Index Arrows indicate indicate 12-month 12-month outlook outlook Index base: 4Q13 = 100 Financial Index base: Indicators 4Q13 are =100 for Myeondong. Source: Financial JLL Indicators are for Prime high street shop in Myeongdong Retail Seoul Sales Retail Sales y-o-y (%) Financial Indices Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Source: Statistics Korea Source: Statistics Korea Sales Growth of Large-scale Retail Stores in Seoul 18 JLL Korea Property Digest Q1 2018

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