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1 Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6): , 2011 배 신고 의만개일및생육기기상을이용한수확일예측 한점화 1 ㆍ손인창 1 ㆍ최인명 1 ㆍ김승희 1 ㆍ조정건 1 ㆍ윤석규 1 ㆍ김호철 2 ㆍ김태춘 2* 1 국립원예특작과학원, 2 원광대학교원예학과 Predicting Harvest Date of Niitaka Pear by Using Full Bloom Date and Growing Season Weather Jeom Hwa Han 1, In Chang Son 1, In Myeong Choi 1, Seung Heui Kim 1, Jung Gun Cho 1, Seok Kyu Yun 1, Ho Cheol Kim 2, and Tae-Choon Kim 2* 1 National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, Suwon , Korea 2 Department of Horticulture, Wonkwang University, Iksan , Korea Abstract. The effect of full bloom date and growing season weather on harvesting date of Niitaka pear (Pyrus pyrifolia) in Naju province and the model of multiple linear regression for predicting the fruit growing days was studied. Earlier year in full bloom date, the harvesting date tended earlier but fruit growing days tended longer. Mean and coefficient of variation of fruit growing degree days (GDD) accumulated daily mean and maximum temperature at the base of 0 from full bloom date to harvesting date was 3,565, 2.9% and 4,463, 2.5%, respectively. Fruit growing days was not correlated with the fruit GDD accumulated daily mean and maximum temperature at the base of 0 in each month but highly correlated with GDD accumulated daily meteorological factors at days after full bloom date. Especially, it was highly negatively correlated with GDD accumulated daily mean and maximum temperature at the base of 0 from 1 st day after full bloom to 60 th day. The determination coefficient (r 2 ) of multiple linear regression model by full bloom date, GDD accumulated daily mean and maximum temperature from 1 st day after full bloom to 60 th day for predicting fruit growing days was As a result, the fruit growing days of Niitaka pear in Naju province can predict with 72% accuracy by the model of multiple linear regression. Additional key words: accumulated temperature, fruit growing days, growing degree day, multiple linear regression, Pyrus pyrifolia 서언우리나라겨울은지구온난화로 1920년대에비해약 1개월정도짧아져 (KMA, 2007) 봄에꽃피는시기가빨라지고있다 (Choi and Moon, 2009). 그러나 2010년과 2011년에는봄철이상저온으로대부분과수의개화시기가평년대비 1-2 주정도늦어져개화시기의조만이수확시기에미치는영향에대한관심이증가되었다. 기후변화에따른수목의개화시기변동양상에관한연구는많이수행되고있으나 (Choi and Moon, 2009; Jung et al., 2005; Yun, 2006) 과수의개화시기및생육기기상이수확시기에미치는영향에관한연 구는없는실정이다. 작물의수확시기를판정하는요인으로는생육일수와적산온도를들수있는데, 이중환경영향및연차또는지역간변이가적은적산온도가널리활용되고있다 (Jong et al., 1986; Kim et al., 1996; Koo et al., 2001; Lee, 1983). 적산온도에관한연구는주로 1년생작물에서많이수행되었는데특히, 시설재배에서고품질다수확, 그리고가격경쟁력을높이기위한파종시기결정에관한것이다 (Arnold, 1971; Lee, 1983; Seong et al., 2004). 생육의예측이나품종의조만정도를판단하기위하여생육온도일수 (growing degree days, GDD) 또는온량지수 (heat *Corresponding author: kitmotc@wku.ac.kr These authors are contributed equally to this work. Received 31 August 2011; Accepted 5 October This paper was supported by Wonkwang University in Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6), December

2 unit) 가널리쓰이고있다 (Arnold, 1971; Jong et al., 2005, Kim et al., 1996; MAF, 2006). 옥수수를여러가지환경에서재배하는경우생육기간예측은생육단계별일수나품종의조만정도로나타내는것보다는 GDD로나타내는것이차이가적고정확도를높일수있다 (Jong et al., 1986; Lee et al., 1981; MAF, 2006). 또한벼와보리에서는특정지역에서새로운품종의재배가능여부를판정하는방법으로출수기와성숙기의 GDD가활용되고있으며 (Koo et al., 2001; Lee, 1983), 과수에서는하우스감귤재배의가온시기추정을위해적산온도와 GDD와의관계를구명하였다 (Kim et al., 1996). GDD를계산하는방법은매우다양하며, 일최고온도와최저온도의평균에서생육의최저한계온도인기준온도를뺀나머지를누적하여계산하는잉여온도형이많이이용되고있다 (Hyun et al., 1994; Kim et al., 1996; Lee, 1983; MAF, 2006). Kim et al.(1996) 은감귤의생육시기에따라기준온도가달라짐을보고하였고, Ruml et al.(2010) 은살구의기준온도는품종간에차이가있으며수확기까지의적산기준온도는 3 가가장적합하다고하였다. Sugiura(1997) 는배 행수 의세포분열기에고온일수록과실발육이빠르고세포분열기간이단축되어수확기가빨라지며, 세포비대기에는기온이과실발육및수확기에영향을미치지않는다고하였다. 본연구는배 신고 과실의과거작황자료를이용하여만개일및생육기기상이수확일에미치는영향을분석하여배과실의생육일수를추정할수있는모델을도출함으로써기후변화에따른배과실의비대및품질예측모델개발의기초자료로활용하고자수행하였다. 재료및방법 신고 배나무 (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai cv. Niitaka) 의만개일및생육기기상을활용하여만개후부터수확일까지의생육일수추정을위한함수를도출하기위해 1985년부터 2003년까지나주시소재배시험장에서조사한만개일과수확일자료를이용하였다. 1985년부터 2003년까지배시험장의기상자료중 1992, 1994 및 1999년 3개년자료는누락되어제외하였다. 과실생육일수는만개다음날을 1일로하여수확전까지의일수로산정하였다. 만개일부터수확일까지의생육온도일수 (GDD) 는일평균기온, 일최고기온을적산하였고, 기준온도이상의 GDD는일평균기온및일최고기온에서기준온도를뺀값을적산하였다. 각방법별로 16년간 GDD 값 의평균, 표준편차및변이계수 ( 표준편차 / 평균 100) 를산출하였다. 과실생육일수와월별기상요인과의상관분석을위하여과실생육기인 4월부터 9월까지의일평균기온, 일최고기온, 일최저기온, 일강우량및일조시간등을적산하였다. 과실생육일수와만개후생육기별기상요인과의상관분석을위하여만개후 1-30, 1-60, 1-90, 1-120일및 31-60, 61-90, , 일까지의일평균기온, 일최고기온, 일강우량, 일조시간등을적산하였다. 과실생육일수와만개일과의단순선형회귀분석결과와비교하기위하여상관계수가가장높았던만개후 1-60일까지의일최고기온적산온도와같은시기의일평균기온적산온도및만개일등 3요인을이용하여다중선형회귀분석을실시하였다. 도출된선형회귀식의적합성검증을위해회귀식에 1985년부터 2003년 (1992, 1994, 1999제외 ) 의기상자료를대입하여생육일수를추정하고추정값과실측값의차이를비교하였다. 결과및고찰만개일의조만과과실생육일수나주지역에서 신고 배나무의 1985년부터 2003년까지연도별만개일에따른수확일과과실생육일수와의관계를분석하였다 (Fig. 1). 19년간만개일이가장빠른해는 4월 5일, 가장늦은해는 4월 24일로 19일의차이를보였다 (Fig. 1A). 수확일이가장빠른해는 9월 25일, 가장늦은해는 10월 6일로 11일의차이를보였으며, 이는만개일의 19일에비해 8일적었다. 만개일이빠를수록수확일이빨라지는정 (+) 의상관을보였으나결정계수는 로서약 49% 의설명이가능하였다. 만개일에따라과실생육일수가가장짧은해는 162일, 가장긴해는 175일로차이는 13일이었으며평균생육일수는 167일이었다 (Fig. 1B). 만개일이빠를수록과실생육일수가길어지는부 (-) 의상관을보였으며, 결정계수는 로서 Fig. 1A의수확일에비해현저히높았다. 따라서만개일을활용하여직접수확일을추정하기보다는먼저 Fig. 1B의회귀식을이용하여과실생육일수를추정하고이를이용하여수확일을계산하는방법이정확도가높을것으로판단되었다. 만개일의조만과생육온도일수 1985년부터 2003년까지 19년중기상데이타수집이안된 3년 (1992, 1994 및 1999) 을제외한 16년간나주지역의 신고 배나무의만개일부터수확일까지의일평균기온과일최 550 Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6), December 2011

3 Fig. 1. Relationship between the full bloom date and harvesting date (A) or fruit growing days (B) of Niitaka pear during in Naju province. Full bloom and harvesting date at regression equation calculated the Julian day number of each year. 고기온에대해기준온도를달리하여적산한생육온도일수의평균, 표준편차와변이계수는 Table 1과같다. 만개일부터수확일까지의 0 기준일평균기온및일최고기온의생육온도일수는 3,656과 4,463이었고변이계수가각각 2.9와 2.5로변이정도가작아배 신고 의과실생육기간을생육온도일수로표현하는것은적합한것으로판단되었다. 기준온도 5, 10, 15 이상의일평균기온과일최고기온생육온도일수의변이계수는기준온도가높을수록높아지는경향이었다. 다만, 5 기준일최고기온생육온도일수의변이계수는 2.8로 0 기준의일평균기온생육온도일수의변이계수 2.9보다는낮았다. MAF(2006) 는옥수수의적산온도계산시일최고기온이 30 가넘을때초과온도를 30 에서빼주고, 일최저기온이기준온도보다낮을때기준온도로대체하여보정하면변이계수가낮아진다고보고하였는데, 본연구에서는일평균기온과일최고기온을보정하여도변이계수가높아져고온성작물과는차이가있음을알수있었다. Kim et al.(1996) 은가온시기에따른감귤의적산온도를비교한결과, 일최고, 일최저및일평균기온적산온도의변이계수는생육일수의변이계수에비해작으며, 이중일최고기온적산온도의변이계수가가장작다고하여적산온도가감귤의생육기 Table 1. Fruit growing degree days (GDD) accumulated daily mean and maximum temperature with various basic temperatures from full bloom date (FBD) to harvesting date (HD) during , except 1992, 1994 and 1999, in Naju province. FBD HD GDD accumulated daily mean temp. ( ) GDD accumulated daily max. temp. ( ) Apr. 5 Sept. 28 3,656 2,781 1,910 1,090 4,510 3,635 2,760 1,887 Apr. 9 Sept. 25 3,739 2,899 2,059 1,229 4,602 3,762 2,922 2,083 Apr. 10 Sept. 26 3,517 2,677 1,840 1,038 4,449 3,609 2,769 1,930 Apr. 10 Sept. 27 3,628 2,783 1,946 1,181 4,514 3,692 2,824 2,008 Apr. 12 Oct. 1 3,706 2,846 1,986 1,170 4,659 3,799 2,939 2,082 Apr. 13 Sept. 30 3,585 2,740 1,895 1,078 4,427 3,582 2,737 1,898 Apr. 15 Sept. 27 3,622 2,802 1,982 1,190 4,541 3,721 2,901 2,081 Apr. 16 Sept. 27 3,404 2,589 1,775 1,014 4,259 3,444 2,629 1,815 Apr. 16 Sept. 30 3,552 2,722 1,892 1,100 4,433 3,603 2,773 1,943 Apr. 17 Oct. 4 3,459 2,614 1, ,353 3,508 2,663 1,819 Apr. 18 Oct. 2 3,602 2,772 1,942 1,148 4,544 3,692 2,884 2,042 Apr. 19 Oct. 1 3,609 2,789 1,970 1,173 4,480 3,660 2,840 2,020 Apr. 20 Oct. 1 3,412 2,597 1, ,304 3,489 2,674 1,859 Apr. 20 Oct. 1 3,424 2,609 1,794 1,026 4,311 3,518 2,681 1,879 Apr. 21 Oct. 1 3,513 2,703 1,896 1,110 4,484 3,653 2,864 2,043 Apr. 24 Oct. 6 3,617 2,792 1,967 1,151 4,535 3,689 2,885 2,051 Mean 3,565 2,732 1,900 1,102 4,463 3,629 2,797 1,965 SD CV (%) Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6), December

4 간을표현하는데적합하다고보고하였다. 만개일이빠를수록만개일부터수확일까지의적산온도가높아지는경향이었으나통계적인유의차는없었다 ( 자료미제시 ). 이와같은경향은벼 (Lee, 1983), 보리 (Koo et al., 2001), 귀리 (Hyun et al., 1994) 에서도출수기혹은파종시기가빠를수록수확기까지의적산온도가높다는보고와유사하다. 앞에서언급된바와같이만개일이빠를수록만개직후의기온이낮아과실의생장속도가낮기때문에생육일수가길어지고적산온도가높은것으로추정된다. 생육기기상과과실생육일수와의관계생육기의월별기상요인과과실생육일수와의상관분석결과는 Table 2와같다. 4월부터 9월까지의월별기상요인중에서 8월의강수량과일조시수두요인만과실생육일수와유의한상관관계가인정되었다. 8월에강우가많으면일조시수가부족하고, 또한토양수분을증가시켜질소흡수량이증가하여과피내엽록소의소실이늦어져 (Choi et al., 2007) 과실수확시기가늦어졌을것으로추정된다. 그러나배 신고 의수확시기가 9월하순부터 10월상순에해당되 므로 8월의강우량을이용하여수확일을추정하는것은큰의미가없다. Sugiura(1997) 는배 행수 의수확시기는유과기의온도와상관이높으며, 그이후의기상요인은숙기에영향을미치지않는다고하였다. 만개후특정기간의기상요인과과실생육일수와의상관관계를분석하였다 (Table 3). 만개후 1일부터 60일까지의일평균기온, 일최고기온및일조시간, 그리고만개후 31일부터 60일까지의일평균기온, 일최고기온및일조시간이생육일수와높은부의상관을보여, 유과기기온이높을수록생육일수가짧아지는것을알수있었다. 이는 Sugiura(1997) 의보고와마찬가지로유과기기온이높을수록세포분열기간이단축되어생육일수가짧아진것으로생각되었다. 그러나 Sugiura(1997) 는 행수 의생육일수가만개후 1일부터 33일까지의일평균기온과상관이높다고하였으나본연구에서는만개후 60일까지의기온과상관이높은것을볼때 신고 의세포분열정지시기는 행수 에비해늦었기때문으로생각되었다. 과실생육일수를추정하기위한모델식을작성하기위해과실생육일수와상관이높은만개일 ( 연중일수, X 1), 만개 Table 2. Correlation coefficient between fruit growing days and daily meteorological factors in each month during , except 1992, 1994, and 1999, in Naju province. Month Accumulated daily temperature Mean temp. Max. temp. Precipitation Sunshine duration April May June July August ** z * September z *,**Significant at p = 0.05 and Table 3. Correlation coefficient between fruit growing days and daily meteorological factors at days after full bloom date during , except 1992, 1994, and 1999, in Naju province. Days after full bloom date Accumulated daily temperature Mean temp. Max. temp. Precipitation Sunshine duration * z * ** * * ** * ** * ** ** ** * z *,** Significant at p = 0.05 and Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6), December 2011

5 Table 4. Multiple linear regression analysis between fruit growing days and full bloom date (FBD, X 1), GDD accumulated daily mean temperature (ADMnT, X 2) and daily maximum temperature (ADMxT, X 3) at 60 days after full bloom date during , except 1992, 1994,and 1999, in Naju province. Model Independent variable Parameter estimated Coefficient of determination (r 2 ) Probability > F Ⅰ Ⅱ X 1 : FBD Intercept : X 1 : X 1 : FBD Intercept : X 2 : ADMnT X 1 : X 3 : ADMxT X 2 : X 3 : Fig. 2. Difference between the observed and the estimated fruit growing days of Niitaka pear at each year. 후 1일부터 60일까지의 0 기준일평균기온생육온도일수 (X 2 ) 및일최고기온생육온도일수 (X 3 ) 를독립변수로하여다중선형회귀분석을실시하였다 (Table 4). 다중회귀식의결정계수는 로서만개일만의단순회귀식의결정계수 보다높았다. 다중선형회귀식을이용하여과실생육일수를추정하고실측값과비교한결과 (Fig. 2) -2일부터 +4일까지의차이를보였으며, 평균 1.7일의차이를보였다. 또한다중선형회귀의분산분석에서오차분산 (MSE) 의제곱근값이 1.75로서만개일의단순선형회귀 (model I) 의 MSE 의제곱근값 1.88 에비해작았다 ( 자료미제시 ). 따라서나주지역에서배 신고 의과실생육일수추정은만개일, 만개후 60일까지의 0 기준일평균기온및일최고기온의생육온도일수를이용하여 72% 의정확도로추정이가능하다고판단된다. 초 나주지역에서 신고 배나무의만개일및생육기기상이수확일에미치는영향을분석하고과실생육일수를추정할수있는다중직선회귀모델을도출하였다. 만개일이빠른 록 해일수록수확일이빨라지는경향이었지만과실생육일수는길어지는경향이었다. 과실생육기의 0 기준일평균기온과일최고기온의생육온도일수와변이계수는 3,565와 2.9% 및 4,463과 2.5% 로해에따른편차가적었다. 과실생육일수와생육기의월별일평균기온및일최고기온의생육온도일수와는관련성이낮았지만, 만개후생육일수별기상요인과는관련성이높게나왔다. 특히만개후 1-60일과 31-60일까지의일평균기온및일최고기온의생육온도일수와는높은부 (-) 의상관을나타내었다. 만개일과만개후 1일부터 60일까지의일평균기온및일최고기온의생육온도일수를독립변수로하여과실생육일수를추정하는다중선형회귀식으로 의높은결정계수값을얻었다. 따라서나주지역에서배 신고 의과실생육일수를다중직선회귀모델식에의해 72% 의정확도로추정할수있다. 추가주요어 : 적산온도, 과실생장일수, 생육온도일수, 다중선형회귀, 배나무 인용문헌 Arnold, C.Y Heat units used in field corn production. III. Research 13:6-7. Choi, C.M. and S.G. Moon Changes of flowering time in the weather flora in Busan using the time series analysis. J. Environ. Sci. 18: Choi, S.T., S.C. Kim, G.H. Ahn, Y.W. Yoon, and S.M. Kang Time of nitrogen application in autumn affects fruit characteristics and reserve accumulation of Fuyu persimmon. Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 25(Suppl. I):111. (Abstr.) Hyun, S.W., Y.M. Park, M.S. Ko, and Y.K. Kang Effect of seeding date on growth and yield in oats. Kor. J. Crop Sci. 39: Jong, S.K., S.S. Lee, and K.Y. Park Methods of estimating growing degree days to predict growth duration in maize. Kor. J. Crop Sci. 31: Jung J.E., E.Y. Kwon, U. Chung, and J.I. Yun Predicting cherry flowering date using a plant phenology model. Kor. J. Agri. Forest Meteorol. 7: Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6), December

6 Kim, Y.H., D.Y. Moon, C.M. Kim, S.U. Ko, and S.B. Kim Comparative analysis of cumulative temperature and growth period depending upon growth stage as affected by cropping system in plastic house-grown Satsuma mandarin. J. Kor. Soc. Hort. Sci. 37: Koo, B.C., C.W. Lee, C.G. Lee, J.C. Kim, and M.W. Park Growth and yield of barley as affected by accumulated temperature. Kor. J. Crop Sci. 46: Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Analysis of climatic change tendency of the Korean Peninsula. KMA, Seoul. p. 15. Lee, S.S Utilization of growing degree days as an index of growth duration of rice varieties. Kor. J. Crop Sci. 28: Ministry for Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) Prediction of harvesting time of super sweet and waxy corn hybrids with growing degree days. MAF, Gwacheon. p Ruml, M., A. Vukovic, and D. Milatovic Evaluation of different methods for determining growing degree-day thresholds in apricot cultivars. Int. J. Biometeorol. 54: Seong, K.C., J.W. Lee, H.M. Kwon, C.H. Kim, D.Y. Moon, and H.D. Seo Effect of planting date on the growth and yield in retarding culture of squash (Cucurbita maxima) under rain-shielding condition. Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 22: Sugiura, T Interpretation of climatic ecology response and development model to predict growth and development of pear tree. PhD Diss., Kyoto Univ., Kyoto. Yun J. I Climate change impact on the flowering season of Japanese cherry (Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) in Korea during Kor. J. Agri. Forest Meteorol. 8: Kor. J. Hort. Sci. Technol. 29(6), December 2011

03이경미(237~248)ok

03이경미(237~248)ok The recent (2001-2010) changes on temperature and precipitation related to normals (1971-2000) in Korea* Kyoungmi Lee** Hee-Jeong Baek*** ChunHo Cho**** Won-Tae Kwon*****. 61 (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010).