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1 24(5): , 2001 Korean J. Ecol. 한라산구상나무 (Abies koreana W.) 의연륜연대학적연구 기후변화에따른생장변동분석 구경아 박원규 공우석 *, * 적요 :, , 1982, 1988, ( ) 4 11, , 2, 3 11 (SOI). (frost damage), 1964, 1965, ,., , %.,.,. 검색어 :,,,, 서론 (Abies koreana Wilson) ( 1962, 1968, 1969, 1989, 1982, 1984, 1993), ( 1993).,, ( 1992, 1994, 1991, 1997)., ( 1984, 1994).. (1999),. (1994) ( ) Author for correspondence; Phone: , treering@cbucc.chungbuk.ac.kr

2 (1993)..,, - (ENSO),,. 재료및방법 연구지역 , km 2. 1,300 m 1,940 m, ( 1995). 1,900m ( 1999). 연륜측정및크로스데이팅 50, cm 4 (core). 54 (cross dating)., pointer year DPL (Dendrochronology Programs Library) COFECHA. (Stokes & Smiley 1968). (Schweingruber 1988). Velmex 0.01mm. (Fritts, 1978). 1 (negative exponential curve), 2 spline(50% : 60 ) (Fritts 1978, 1999). ARSTAN residual (prewhitened).,,,,. (Fritts, 1978), (autocorrelation) (Fritts, 1978)., (signal/ noise ratio: SNR) ( 1993, 1999). (2001). 기후및남방진동계수와연륜연대기와의상관분석 ( ). residual,. (2000). NOAA, ENSO-index. (SOI) PRECON (Fritts ). SOI Mike Salmon. 기온상승에따른생장비의변화예측 stepwise regression response function. Fritts Precon. 2 4, HadCM2. 표준화및연대기의통계학적성질, 상흔조사.. ( )

2001 10 283 결과및고찰 Scars in Korean fir.. 나이테의생장쇠퇴도조사. 40% 3 (abrupt growth change) (Schweingruber 1988). 40 55%, 56 70%, 70% ' ' (Schweingruber, 1988). 1, 2, 3, (Fig. 2). 연륜연대기의일반적성질.

3 결과및고찰 Scars in Korean fir.. 나이테의생장쇠퇴도조사. 40% 3 (abrupt growth change) (Schweingruber 1988) %, 56 70%, 70% ' ' (Schweingruber, 1988). 1, 2, 3, (Fig. 2). 연륜연대기의일반적성질. 54 COFECHA, pointer year. COFECHA, pointer year 1996, 1988, 1982 (Table 1) , 1982, 1988, 1996,. Pointer years of Abies koreana in each sampled tree Tree No. Pointer years(abrupt growth decline) HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK07 87 HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK12 HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK16 74 HLNAK HLNAK HLNAK19 96 HLNAK Example of making the diagram to present growth declines (Schweingruber, 1988). HLNAK *The numbers indicate the years in 1900's.

284 24 5 연륜연대기의통계학적성질 1912 1999 88. 0.192. 0.446, 0.269 (1999),. 6.255, 1 30.96%. 구상나무의생장과기후와의관계 4 11 12, 1 (Fig. 3). 4. 12 1,.

Correlations between Korean fir chronology and SOI. 구상나무의생장과엘니뇨-남방진동과의관계 1,

4 연륜연대기의통계학적성질 , (1999), , %. 구상나무의생장과기후와의관계 , 1 (Fig. 3) , (1999) (1994). Fig. 3. Relationships between the growths of A. koreana and climatic factors. Correlations between Korean fir chronology and SOI. 구상나무의생장과엘니뇨-남방진동과의관계 1, 2, 3 11 (Fig. 4).,.. 상흔과저온과의관계, , 1970, 1971, 1972, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1983, , 1965, 1966 (Fig. 5),. (frost damage), 0.62 /100 m(, 1999) 1,900m. 4 5, , 1965, 1966.

5 Occurrence of scars in each tree (two triangles indicate that both of two cores of one tree possess scars) , 1965, 1966,. 기온상승에따른구상나무의생장예측 stepwise regression response function 2 4 (Table 2).,., stepwise regression 11, 12, 12, 1 4, response function 29.,. 2 (stepwise regression response function) 19.3%, 9.9%, 4 9.6%, 4.9% %, 26.8%, %, 13.7%. response function Expected growth changes according to warming scenario Temperature 2 rise ( ) 4 rise ( ) Season Method Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual Stepwise Regression (R 2 : 0.54) 19.3% 0% 0% 27.4% 8.1% Response Function (R 2 : 0.71) 9.9% 9.0% 2.1% 26.8% 23.8% Stepwise Regression (R 2 : 0.54) 9.6% 0% 0% 13.7% 4.1% Response Function (R 2 : 0.71) 4.9% 4.5% 1.1% 13.7% 11.9%, stepwise regression %, 23.8%, 4 4.1%, 11.9%,.,. 구상나무의생장쇠퇴도및생장쇠퇴원인 HLNAK05A, HLNAK10B, HLNAK21B 51, 1978, 1982, 1988

286 24 5 14.0 13.5 온 13.0 도12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 Year 10-year moving average of annual mean temperature in Cheju station. YEAR Number of cores showing growth decline among 54 cores of A.

6 온 13.0 도 Year 10-year moving average of annual mean temperature in Cheju station. YEAR Number of cores showing growth decline among 54 cores of A. koreana in each year, using without-weighting method; see Figure 1 for details. (Fig. 6). 51 HLNAK04B, HLNAK06C, HLNAK08B, HLNAK10C, HLNAK14B, HLNAK 14C, HLNAK14D HLNAK03C, HLNAK04A, HLNAK04C, HL- NAK05C, HLNAK11A, HLNAK11B, HLNAK11C, HLNAK 14A, HLNAK15A, HLNAK18A, HLNAK18B, HLNAK20A, HLNAK % (Fig. 7). (, 1994). (Abies) (Crawford, 1989), (Fig. 8), 11 (Fig. 9) 12 (Fig. 10) , ( ) (Table 2) ,. Year Accumulated intensity of the growth decline of A. koreana in each year, using weighted decline intensity; see Figure 2 for details Year 10-year moving average of November mean temperature in Cheju station.

7 Year 10-year moving average of December mean temperature in Cheju station.. 사사,. 인용문헌 (4): (4): pp. 178.,, (2): ,, (1): KOSEF , pp. 89., : , , 4 13(1): (1): ( ) 4,, pp (Pinus densiflora) -.. pp (2): pp , (1): : pp pp (4): : Crawford, R.M.M Studies in Plant Survival : Ecological case stories of plant adaptation to adversity, Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford. pp Fritts, H. C Tree Rings and Climate, Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd. pp Schweingruber, F. H Tree Rings: Basics and Application of Dendrochronology. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht. Netherlands. pp Stokes, M. A. and T. L. Smiley An Introduction to Tree -Ring Dating. University of Chicago Press. Chicago. pp. 72. ( ; )

8 Dendrochronological Analysis of Abies koreana W. at Mt. Halla, Korea: Effects of Climate Change on the Growths Koo, Kyung-Ah, Won-Kyu Park and Woo-Seok Kong* School of Forest Resources, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju , Korea Department of Geography, Kyunghee University, Seoul , Korea* ABSTRACT : The relationships between the growths of Abies koreana W. and climatic factors were analyzed by the use of tree-ring analysis at the subalpine belt of Mt. Halla National Park. The four cores were extracted from each 21 trees at north-facing slope (1,900m a.s.l.). The site chronology was established on the periods from 1912 to The growth of A. koreana was very poor, in particular in the years of 1982, 1988 and Simple correlation was employed to analyze the relationship between the growth of A. koreana and climatic factors. The result of simple correlation indicates that the growth of A. koreana represent positive correlations both with the mean temperatures of April and previous November, and the precipitation of previous December and January. The presence of large number of frost-damaged scars in the individual trees of A. koreana implies that local freezing temperature conditions at Mt. Halla have occurred in 1964, 1965 and The correlations between the fir chronology SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) of previous January, February and November were significantly positive. The growth ratio of A. koreana demonstrates that this species is sensitive to seasonal variations. As the winter temperature rises, the growth ratio of A. koreana decreases, on the other hand, the increase of autumn temperature accelerates the growth ratio of A. koreana. The growth decline of A. koreana was observed from 51 cores out of the 54 cores, and the overall growth declines have initiated at 1978, 1982 and Distinct growth decline of A. koreana in the range of 70% is noticed at 31 cores out of the 51 cores. The decline of A. koreana growth appears to be related to the winter temperature which has increased since mid-1970s. Key words : Korean fir, Abies koreana, Climatic change, Dendrochronology, Frost damage, Growth decline

03이경미(237~248)ok

03이경미(237~248)ok The recent (2001-2010) changes on temperature and precipitation related to normals (1971-2000) in Korea* Kyoungmi Lee** Hee-Jeong Baek*** ChunHo Cho**** Won-Tae Kwon*****. 61 (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010).