기본연구보고서 11-34

Transcription

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2 기본연구보고서 11-34

3 연구책임자 : 선임연구위원 연구참여자 : 부연구위원 계명대학교교수 이달석 오세신 최성희

4 SK ( ) ,,,, 6., , 요약 i

5 .. 2., % % %, %, %. ( 28% ) %.. 85%, 2030 (37 ), (129 ), B-C (58 ) (254 ) LPG(94 ). ii

6 b/d, 66%.,. 2020,,,,,, 8 b/d,. 2020,,, LPG,.,, , 449 b/d 283 b/d, 279 b/d 66 b/d, 984 b/d 519 b/d. LPG. 150 b/d., (RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage), (Nelson). 50 b/d b/d, 요약 iii

7 . RCA RCA 1, RCA,, ,,.,,..,,.,,. iv

8 ... LPG. (NOC).. 19%. (HDU)....,.. 요약 v

9 .,.... (FTA). (GCC) FTA vi

10 It is difficult to expect further expansion of domestic demand, which was previously a driver of growth of Korea's oil industry. Domestic oil demand has reached maturity, resulting in a substantial slowdown in the rate of increase. In fact, domestic oil demand is steadily moving towards the state of saturation. Fortunately, a rise in exports in the 2000s somewhat addressed issues that resulted from a slowdown in domestic demand. However, emerging Asian nations are expected to substantially enhance their refining capacity. For this reason, it is unclear if Korea will be able to continually secure a certain portion of demand for petroleum product exports. As such, there is a need to closely analyze changes in the oil market in Korea as well as the Asia Pacific as a whole for continued development of the oil industry. Based on such analysis, new development strategies should be devised. This is the second-year research of the Future Oil Industry Strategy Research. It aims to formulate product export strategies, strategies to enhance efficiency of refining facilities, and overseas advancement strategies, with focus on the downstream oil industry. To this end, this research analyzes changes in the oil industry, including balance between oil supply and demand in the Korean and Abstract i

11 Asian Pacific market, and competitiveness of Korea's oil industry, followed by discussions on effective measures. The level of increase in domestic oil demand slowed down in stark contrast to the past. Domestic oil demand rose by an annual average of 1.5% from 2010 through 2020, and is expected to record annual average growth of merely 0.4% from 2020 through Assuming that current refining facilities are operated based on domestic demand, the rate of operation is forecast to reach 76% in 2015 and 82% in It is expected to reach 85%, which can be said to be an appropriate rate of operation, no earlier than The rate of operation of refining facilities is expected to be slightly higher than 60% even in 2030 when excluding the directly-imported volume (assuming a direct import ratio of 27%) of large consumers such as petrochemical companies and KEPCO from domestic demand. It is forecast that the number of refining facilities will remain excessive compared to domestic demand. As such, securing a certain portion of demand for petroleum product exports will continue to be an important task for the domestic oil industry. Oil demand in the Asia Pacific is projected to continue to expand, adding annual average of 0.7mmb/d from 2010 through 2030, contributing to 66% of global growth. As such, oil demand in the Asia Pacific is forecast to lead a rise in global oil demand. ii

12 According to forecasts on demand for each petroleum product in the Asia Pacific, the rate of increase is relatively high for diesel while it is relatively low for fuel oil. Refining capacity is expected to indicate growth of around 8mmb/d in China, India, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan, and other countries by Most of the growth will be the result of increased facilities in China and India. In terms of demand and supply for each petroleum product by 2020, continued excessive supply of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel will result in the need for export of these products. In contrast, shortage of supply in naphtha, LPG, and fuel oil will result in the need for import of these products. An increase in the number of refining facilities is expected to be short of a rise in demand for petroleum products during the forecast period. For this reason, the level of excessive supply of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel is expected to steadily decline. During the same period, there will likely be greater shortage in the supply of naphtha and less shortage in the supply of LPG. To analyze the competitiveness of Korea's oil industry, a comparison was carried out among countries with a crude oil refining capacity of more than 1.5 million b/d using three indexes: average refining capacity per refining complex, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, and Nelson index. The average size of atmospheric distillation units per refining Abstract iii

13 complex is approximately 500 thousand b/d for Korea which is the largest among countries. The average size of atmospheric distillation units per refining complex of 14 countries is 190 thousand b/d. A larger size means that average costs for production of petroleum products can be relatively lower. Korea's RCA index stood at 1.5 in 2009 and 2.1 in 2010, thus indicating that the nation has a comparative advantage in petroleum product exports. When the RCA index is larger than 1, a country is considered to have international competitiveness for the respective product. Korea ranks fourth, following Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia. The Nelson index shows how many complicated refining facilities a country has that can be used to produce high added-value products. In the Asia Pacific, Korea remains at 9th place from among 14 countries, although it is right behind Japan. An overall assessment of the three different indexes indicates that Korea's oil industry can maintain a relative competitive advantage in the global downstream market. Efficient execution of petroleum product exports, selective expansion of oil refining facilities, and advancement into the overseas downstream sector are suggested as future downstream iv

14 strategies for the Korean oil industry. In terms of petroleum product exports, the amount of excessive supply of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel is expected to steadily go down in the Asia Pacific, leading to forecasts that it will be possible to maintain the current level of profitability. In particular, shortage of fuel oil is expected in the Asia Pacific. This is why an increase in profitability is forecast. For gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel, for which sales competition is expected in the Asian Pacific market, securing stable export routes is important. What is needed is to actively secure export routes in line with market condition, exchange rate, and institutional changes in each country in the Asia Pacific. There is also a need to consider North America as a strategic export destination based on the season, considering that operation of refining facilities in North America frequently comes to a stop due to hurricanes. It would also be appropriate to build a foundation for export to South America, which is recording sharp economic growth. Investments in oil refining facilities should be based on selective expansion. It is expected that the rise in oil demand in the Asia Pacific will exceed the increase in refining facilities and that there will be shortage in the supply of naphtha and LPG. However, excessive supply of other major petroleum products is forecast to continue. This is why increased investments in crude distillation units will probably not be appropriate. In particular, the simple refining Abstract v

15 margin can go down because refining capacity investments will likely be made by national oil companies (NOC) in the Asia Pacific that place priority on strategic considerations rather than profitability. However, there is a need for selective expansion of upgrading facilities. Korea's heavy oil upgrading unit ratio is 19% which is relatively low compared to major countries. As such, the country should look into measures that would increase its upgrading ratio by additionally expanding hydrocracking units, whose refining margin is expected to be relatively high, from among heavy oil upgrading units, in the long term. The country should also expand desulfurization units in consideration of continued strengthening of environmental regulations. To advance into the overseas downstream sector, there is a need to establish strategic alliances with national oil companies in emerging economies in the Asia Pacific that have a high possibility of recording a rise in oil demand. The refining technology field is where national oil companies will probably recognize the need to establish business alliances with private oil companies. National oil companies in emerging countries and Southeast Asia do not yet have advanced refining facilities. The advanced technologies that Korean oil companies have can serve as a basis for establishing alliances with national oil companies. What is also extremely important is to set up overseas offices in optimal areas. These offices would perform roles as a hub for information exchange, thus promoting cooperation vi

16 with national oil companies. Also needed are strategies on making inroads into the downstream sector by making a connection with relevant industries. One approach would be to advance into the oil refining sector of another country by establishing ties with petrochemical companies in the respective nation. Another approach would be to advance into overseas markets by establishing ties with Korean plants companies and resource development companies to offer 'packages'. Also worth considering is an approach that involves using participation in a country's oil distribution industry as the basis for advancing into its refining sector. Last of all, the government's roles remain important for continued growth of the oil industry. The government should extend the tax reduction and exemption system for investments in heavy oil upgrading units and desulfurization units before the system expires. The government should do so in consideration of the fact that there is a shortage of investments in upgrading units in the oil industry. It should also promote petroleum product exports by entering into FTAs. It should especially actively move forward with signing FTAs with Colombia in South America and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that have great oil demand potential. The government should also strengthen diplomatic relations and increase social and cultural exchange with emerging countries to promote foreign direct investment by Korean oil companies. Another important role that the government can perform to increase overseas Abstract vii

17 advancements is to support relevant public companies in Korea in forming consortiums with oil companies. Lastly, there is a need for government support in relation to raising funds for foreign direct investment. Relevant measures include creating overseas infrastructure funds through public financial institutes and increasing the underwriting volume of the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation. Another way for the government to support overseas advancements of the domestic oil industry is to build a system that can more clearly evaluate risks of overseas projects. viii

18 % 차례 i

19 (RCA) ii

20 차례 iii

21 < 2-1> 4 < 2-2> 7 < 2-3> 8 < 2-4> ( ) 9 < 2-5> ( ) 14 < 2-6> 15 < 2-7> 18 < 2-8> 19 < 2-9> (1 ) 21 < 2-10> 24 < 2-11> 26 < 3-1> 29 < 3-2> ( 85% ) 31 < 3-3> ( 85% ) 33 < 3-4> ( ) 34 < 3-5> ( ) 35 < 3-6> ( ) 36 < 3-7> ( ) 37 < 4-1> 40 < 4-2> ( ) 44 < 4-3> (2009~2030) 46 < 4-4> (2009~2030) 48 iv

22 < 4-5> (2009~2030) 50 < 4-6> (2009~2030) 51 < 4-7> (2009~2030) 53 < 4-8> (2009~2030) 55 < 4-9> 73 < 4-10> ( ) 75 < 5-1> 86 < 5-2> RCA 90 < 5-3> 92 < 5-4> - Baton Rouge 93 < 5-5> 2012~ < 5-6> 108 < 5-7> 112 < -1> (2010~2011) 125 < -2> 127 < -3> 130 < -4> (2010~2011) 131 < -5> 134 < -6> (2010~2011) 135 < -7> 137 < -8> 138 < -9> (2010~2011) 139 < -10> 139 < -11> (2010~2011) 140 < -12> 140 차례 v

23 < -13> 141 < -14> (2010~2011) 142 < -15> 143 < -16> 143 < -17> (2010~2011) 144 < -18> 144 < -19> 145 vi

24 [ 3-1] 27 [ 4-1] 41 [ 4-2] 42 [ 4-3] 56 [ 4-5] 58 [ 4-6] 59 [ 5-1] 95 [ 5-2] 105 차례 vii

25

26 SK ( ) ,,,, %, %, %,,, 5., 제 1 장서론 1

27 ,.. 2.,.. 2,, ,. 5, (RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage), (Nelson). 4,,. 6. 2

28 % 9. 1) (GDP) 15.. < 2-1> % %.. 1),,,,,,,, (BP(2011)). 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 3

29 < 표 2-1> 국내석유수급구조변화 %., %, % % 4

30 %, %., 2000,, (< 2-2> ) % % ,, % % 7.8%p 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 5

31 , %, 9%. 4.7% 4.4% 5.3% % 21.7% % 17.0%.,, %, %. LPG % % % %, 11.4% 41.7%. 6

32 < 표 2-2> 국내석유제품소비추이 (3.3) (4.4) (21.7) (52.4) (2.8) (2.8) (11.4) (1.2) (100.0) (6.8) (6.0) (27.0) (29.9) (3.0) (10.2) (15.5) (1.7) (100.0) (9.0) (10.7) (21.0) (20.8) (2.4) (9.0) (24.6) (2.5) (100.0) (9.1) (9.2) (18.0) (16.5) (2.6) (10.1) (31.9) (2.6) (100.0) (8.9) (10.7) (17.5) (16.8) (2.6) (10.7) (30.4) (2.5) (100.0) (8.4) (9.4) (17.4) (17.5) (2.5) (11.4) (30.8) (2.6) (100.0) (8.4) (8.3) (17.8) (17.2) (2.7) (11.3) (31.4) (2.9) (100.0) (8.4) (7.7) (18.1) (15.9) (2.6) (12.0) (32.2) (3.1) (100.0) (7.9) (6.9) (19.1) (15.2) (2.7) (11.6) (33.1) (3.5) (100.0) (7.7) (5.7) (19.1) (14.0) (2.8) (11.8) (34.9) (4.0) (100.0) (7.8) (5.2) (18.7) (13.2) (3.3) (12.0) (35.9) (3.8) (100.0) (7.8) (4.1) (18.6) (12.7) (3.3) (12.2) (37.5) (3.8) (100.0) (7.9) (3.3) (18.3) (11.7) (3.3) (12.2) (39.9) (3.5) (100.0) (8.3) (3.6) (17.7) (9.2) (3.3) (13.4) (40.9) (3.6) (100.0) (8.5) (3.3) (17.0) (8.9) (3.4) (13.7) (41.4) (3.8) (100.0) (8.7) (3.7) (17.0) (8.3) (3.5) (13.2) (41.7) (3.9) (100.0) 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 7

33 < 표 2-3> 기간별석유제품소비증가율 '81-' '81-' '98-' '08-' ( SK ) 3.5 b/d. ( ) 0.5 b/d, 1966 ( GS ) 6 b/d ( SK ) 4, 27 b/d ( S-OIL) b/d b/d b/d b/d. 8

34 SK b/d, GS 77 b/d, S-Oil 58 b/d, 39 b/d. < 표 2-4> 국내정제시설용량 (2011년 1월기준 ) CDU 2,721,500 VDU 476,500 Coking 19,000 Thermal operation - Catalytic cracking 212,000 Catalytic reforming 266,470 Catalytic hydrocracking 305,500 b/cd Catalytic hydrotreating 1,245,210 Alkylation 28,600 Pol./Dim. - Aromatics 127,855 Isomerization - Lubes 46,140 Oxygenates 9,270 Hydrogen MMcf/cd Coke 1,200 ton/cd Sulfur 3,971 Asphalt b/cd 44,297 Oil & Gas Journal b/d. 2) 2) Barrel Per Calender Day(BPCD) Barrel Per Stream Day(BPSD) 0.95 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 9

35 21.2 b/d, 30.6 b/d 51.8 b/d. ( ) b/d.. LPG, LSR,,. Pre-flash Pre-flash. Pre-flash LPG. Pre-flash, 15 ~25 b/d. (AR) (VGO) (VR). (350 )

36 .. ( ).,. LPG,, (H2S) (mercaptan) (disulfide). LPG, ~95%. 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 11

37 (,, LGO),,., (reformate).. (SR reforming) (CCR reforming).,.., LPG. 12

38 MTBE C4 (raffinate) (butylene) (iso-butane). (vacuum gas oil) GS b/d b/d 21.5 b/d. GS 27.9% b/d 12 b/d 30.8%. SK 17.6 b/d S-Oil 14.8 b/d., 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 13

39 . GS b/d, 26.8 b/d 34.8%. SK (RFCC) b/d 17.2%. < 표 2-5> 국내정유사별정제시설고도화현황 (2011 년 9 월기준 ) 17.6 b/d 21.5 b/d 14.8 b/d 12.0 b/d 16.0% 27.9% 25.5% 30.8% (1.6b/d, 2013 ) (5.3 b/d, 2013 ) , (1981~2010 ) API 34 14

40 , API 30~34 ( ) API 30 ( ).,. (%) < 표 2-6> 유질별원유수입량 '81-' '81-' '98-' '08-' 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 15

41 , % 10.7% % 0.7%. API 34.., % %

42 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 17

43 < 표 2-7> 국내석유제품생산추이 (3.6) (4.7) (23.4) (49.2) (3.1) (2.3) (12.3) (1.4) (100.0) (7.0) (3.3) (31.2) (36.3) (4.3) (3.1) (13.0) (1.8) (100.0) (8.8) (8.0) (29.4) (26.5) (4.7) (2.3) (17.2) (3.0) (100.0) (8.8) (7.2) (26.9) (24.3) (7.4) (3.2) (17.8) (2.9) (100.0) (8.4) (10.1) (24.4) (26.8) (5.9) (3.4) (18.3) (2.8) (100.0) (8.4) (9.6) (25.0) (25.3) (6.5) (3.8) (18.3) (3.0) (100.0) (8.4) (8.2) (24.1) (24.9) (7.2) (4.3) (17.9) (3.3) (100.0) (9.1) (7.3) (24.6) (22.4) (8.0) (4.8) (19.4) (4.4) (100.0) (8.8) (7.7) (24.5) (24.7) (6.7) (4.6) (18.0) (5.0) (100.0) (8.5) (5.6) (24.0) (22.8) (8.6) (4.4) (18.9) (7.2) (100.0) (8.0) (4.7) (25.0) (22.9) (9.2) (4.0) (19.1) (7.0) (100.0) (8.4) (4.3) (25.1) (21.8) (10.0) (3.8) (19.3) (7.4) (100.0) (8.2) (3.0) (26.5) (19.3) (11.1) (3.6) (20.6) (7.9) (100.0) (9.9) (3.3) (28.2) (16.0) (11.5) (3.7) (18.5) (8.9) (100.0) (11.9) (3.6) (28.7) (13.7) (11.2) (3.8) (17.4) (9.7) (100.0) (11.9) (4.1) (28.6) (13.4) (11.3) (3.5) (18.1) (9.1) (100.0)

44 %. < 표 2-8> 기간별연평균석유제품생산증가율 '81-' '81-' '98-' '08-' ,,, LPG,,. 10.8% 10.5% (6%) % 3.6% % 11.9% %, % 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 19

45 . LPG 5% 7.5%., %, % % %, % % %. -C 90% (,, -C ). 20

46 .,, < 표 2-9> 단위원유 (1 배럴 ) 투입당석유제품생산량 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 21

47 , , , ~ %, 22

48 % %.,, ~6% %, %, % % % , % %. 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 23

49 < 표 2-10> 석유제품수출추이 (0.0) (22.8) (30.8) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (44.4) (2.0) (100.0) (1.4) (0.0) (29.6) (54.4) (4.5) (1.9) (8.1) (0.1) (100.0) (4.4) (4.4) (40.6) (21.7) (8.6) (2.0) (16.0) (2.3) (100.0) (5.3) (2.3) (36.8) (20.3) (14.4) (17.0) (15.1) (2.2) (100.0) (3.8) (5.0) (29.7) (27.7) (11.5) (4.6) (15.5) (2.3) (100.0) (4.9) (6.5) (31.6) (23.6) (12.3) (2.7) (15.9) (2.6) (100.0) (5.5) (6.1) (30.7) (22.7) (13.4) (1.6) (17.4) (2.7) (100.0) (6.5) (4.3) (31.9) (14.6) (17.6) (1.2) (18.8) (5.1) (100.0) (6.5) (6.3) (29.1) (21.9) (13.2) (1.4) (14.8) (6.8) (100.0) (7.8) (3.3) (28.9) (19.3) (19.3) (0.4) (13.2) (7.8) (100.0) (5.5) (1.7) (32.7) (21.3) (20.8) (0.3) (9.8) (7.9) (100.0) (6.9) (1.6) (31.7) (20.2) (21.6) (0.3) (9.7) (8.1) (100.0) (5.3) (0.4) (35.3) (14.6) (24.8) (0.2) (10.1) (9.4) (100.0) (9.3) (0.7) (39.2) (10.5) (23.0) (0.1) (6.9) (10.2) (100.0) (12.1) (1.6) (37.9) (7.7) (21.1) (0.0) (8.0) (11.5) (100.0) (11.5) (1.9) (38.3) (7.5) (20.9) (0.3) (9.4) (10.3) (100.0) 24

50 , %.., % %.. LPG. 1990, LPG % 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 25

51 %. < 표 2-11> 석유제품수입추이 (1.0) (80.1) 0.0 (7.1) (11.8) 0.0 (100.0) (8.9) (9.8) (31.1) (0.0) (27.5) (23.2) (0.1) (100.0) (8.5) (1.7) (14.4) (1.9) (30.8) (42.7) (2.3) (100.0) (0.1) (2.9) (1.2) (7.3) (0.7) (27.9) (59.8) (2.0) (100.0) (0.2) (1.5) (1.3) (8.9) (2.1) (31.3) (54.8) 0.0 (100.0) (0.4) (3.4) (1.4) (12.3) (0.8) (27.3) (54.5) (0.0) (100.0) (1.0) (2.6) (3.3) (10.9) (0.2) (23.5) (58.5) (0.1) (100.0) (1.8) (3.0) (5.7) (10.4) (1.2) (24.6) (53.3) (0.0) (100.0) (0.9) (3.0) (5.1) (6.3) (1.6) (23.1) (60.0) (0.0) (100.0) (0.6) (0.9) (2.2) (4.2) (0.1) (24.5) (67.3) (0.1) (100.0) (0.0) (0.2) (1.1) (2.2) (0.0) (27.7) (68.7) (0.0) (100.0) (0.1) (0.8) (4.6) (0.0) (28.2) (66.3) (0.0) (100.0) (0.2) (0.4) (2.8) (0.0) (27.8) (68.7) 0.0 (100.0) (0.2) (0.2) (3.2) (0.1) (28.1) (68.3) 0.0 (100.0) (0.0) (0.3) (7.4) (0.0) (24.7) (67.4) (0.2) (100.0) (0.1) (0.3) (6.3) (0.0) (25.2) (68.1) (0.0) (100.0) 26

52 KEEI-LEDS 3). (bottom-up),,,,,. 4) [ 그림 3-1] 장기에너지수요전망모형의구조 3) KEEI-LEDS: KEEI Long-Term Energy Demand System 4) (2009.2) 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 27

53 (activity),,.,, % %, %, %. 2020,,.., , %, 0.1% 28

54 . LPG. < 표 3-1> 국내석유제품수요전망 (%) , % %.. 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 29

55 , , %.., %,,.. 30

56 85% ( 1) < 3-2>. 85% (< 3-1>) < 3-3> < 표 3-2> 국내석유제품별생산전망 ( 가동률 85% 적용 ) % 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 31

57 C C , , LPG 85%. LPG /

58 < 표 3-3> 석유제품별수급밸런스전망 ( 가동률 85% 적용 ) ( 2) (< 3-4> ) 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 33

59 %, %, % 85.2% < 표 3-4> 국내석유제품별생산전망 ( 내수기준 ) (< 3-5> ). 2,, 34

60 , B-C, < 표 3-5> 석유제품별수급밸런스전망 ( 내수기준 ) , C LPG 2. LPG 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 35

61 , LPG ( 3) 2010 (72%).,. < 표 3-6> 국내석유제품별생산전망 ( 정유사내수점유율기준 ) C LPG (%)

62 3 < 3-6> , %. < 표 3-7> 석유제품별수급밸런스전망 ( 정유사내수점유율기준 ) < 3-7>.,,,. 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 37

63 , C., , LPG , 2030,,,,., LPG.. 38

64 (refining capacity) 32.2%, 3.. 5)., (< 4-1> ) ,977 b/d, 24,876 b/d , Sinopec(China 5) b/d ((BP(2010), GlobalData(2011)). 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 39

65 Petroleum & Chemical Corporation). < 표 4-1> 아시아태평양지역정제현황 (ADB) % 2010 GDP %., 2010 GDP 10.3%, % GDP 8.6%, % 40

66 .... Facts Global Energy(FGE) ,287 b/d 4.1%, %(932 b/d), %(674 b/d) % ([ 4-1] ). ([ 4-2] ). [ 그림 4-1] 아시아태평양석유수요전망 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 41

67 [ 그림 4-2] 세계및아태지역석유수요증가추이및전망 % GDP 890 b/d(10.8%) 9.12 b/d. 6) %,,,. 2010, 6) b/d. 42

68 , (ethylene) % % GDP ),,, LPG GDP 12 5 (2011 ~2015 ), b/d( 4.2%) 13.7 b/d, b/d( 1.5%) 15.9 b/d. 5,571 b/d 1, 3,297.6 b/d 2, 2,170.2 b/d 3. 7) 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 43

69 < 표 4-2> 중국의석유제품수요전망 ( ) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ~8, 1.4% (Tohoku)., FGE(2011) 9.7GW 1.4 b/d. (Tokyo Electric Power Co; TEPCO) 2010, (LNG) 44

70 . 140 b/d 90 b/d % 935 b/d, (Basic Energy Plan). 2011, LNG , %.,. < 4-3> b/d, b/d. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 45

71 < 표 4-3> 일본의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) , , , , , , , , , % % % 3.05 b/d %, % %, LPG 8.4% % 21%. 8) 8) Reliances Industries Ltd KG-D6 2010, 46

72 %, % (Panipat) (cracker).. LPG. (Reliances industries) KG-D6,. < 4-4>, LPG 2010 ~ % 2020 ~ %.. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 47

73 < 표 4-4> 인도의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,800.1 (hub) 2008~ %., % %. (bunkering) 2011, %, 17%. 1 96% 48

74 ,. 5 13%, %.. 5. (Shell Eastern Petrochemical), (ExxonMobil) b/d, (feedstock) LPG b/d 61.3b/d b/d 77.2b/d. (Changi Airport) < 4-5>, 2010 ~ % 2020 ~ %. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 49

75 < 표 4-5> 싱가포르의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) , , , , , , , , %., b/d 4.7%. 2010,,, 9.8%, 4.1%, 11.4%. 7%,. LPG 9.4% (FGE(2011)) %. 6.7% 7.5%, LPG 5%. 50

76 ~2030 3~4% 0.7%. 2010~ % 2020~ %.,., 2020 LPG 2.1% 1.4% % (< 4-6> ). < 표 4-6> 대만의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) , , , , , ,148.3 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 51

77 %, % % % LPG LPG 102 b/d 84 b/d., LPG. LPG., ) 90%, 40% % , (Jakarta) 2011 (Java) (Bali), 2012 (Sumatra) 9) "RON 88" USD

78 .. LPG LPG. PT Perusahaan Listrik Negra 10,000MW 5. ( ),. < 표 4-7> 인도네시아의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) , , , , , , , ,663.7 < 4-7>, 2011 ~2012, 2013 ~ 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 53

79 ,, LPG GDP 4.4% , 9.9%. 0.3%. 9.2%, ,, LPG, 5.4% ) 5. LPG LPG 10) LNG

80 ., 2010 ~ %, 2020 ~ %. < 표 4-8> 파키스탄의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) [ 4-3] ,, 31%, 18%, 13%. LPG, 10%. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 55

81 [ 그림 4-3] 아태지역석유제품별수요비율,. 10. (Golden Age) (Dark Age)

82 , b/d, b/d. (cracking) $ [ 4-4]. 2004~2009 8%, ( 30%) ( 15~20%) 50%. [ 그림 4-4] 아시아태평양지역주요국가별정제능력현황 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 57

83 2011 ~2015 ([ 4-5] ) ~2014 (1.9 b/d) (2.7 b/d),.?.. [ 그림 4-5] 중기아시아태평양석유정제능력전망 58

84 [ 4-6] (CDU)., 3,.,.,,,. FGE(2011) %, 29%, 6%, 3%. [ 그림 4-6] 상압증류정제시설확대를주도할석유기업유형 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 59

85 b/d 80%. Sinopec Qilu b/d 380 b/d, Sinopec Jinling 270 b/d 360 b/d. CNPC/Petrochina 200 b/d Qinzhou (< -1> ). Sinopec, CNPC/Petrochina Petrochina 200 b/d Qinzhou Guangxi, CNOOC 240 b/d Huizhou , < -2>., Sinopec 40 b/d Qingdao Changling 30 b/d Cangzhou. 2011~ b/d, 0.5 b/d 2.6 b/d

86 2.2 b/d b/d 4.8 b/d b/d, (VDU) 960 b/d, 36 b/d b/d Cosmo Oil (205 b/d) JX Group (135 b/d), (235 b/d). Cosmo Oil JX Group. Cosmo Oil 163 b/d 47k b/d, 130 b/d 28 b/d. JX 372 b/d 20 b/d (METI), 10% %. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 61

87 . JX Group,, 209 b/d, Fuji Oil 49 b/d. Showa Shell Oil Group , 112 b/d, Idemitsu 93 b/d. JX Group 186 b/d. < -4>, < -5>, < -6> ,200 b/d, b/d b/d, (HDC) (Coker).. 62

88 b/d. 13 (,,,,,, ) BS-IV ( IV) BS-III( III)., Indian Oil(IOCL) Bharat Petroleum(BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum(HPCL) HPCL b/d (FCC; Fluid Catalytic Cracker). HPCL 28 b/d FCC III IV 20 b/d. FCC Vizag 14 b/d 32 b/d 2 FCC BPCL b/d. Oman Oil Company 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 63

89 26% 24. < -6> 2011, 3.85 b/d, VDU, FCC RFCC, Coker, HDC. 2020, 0.98 b/d, VDU 0.42 b/d, Coker 0.4 b/d, FCC RFCC 0.27 b/d, HDC 0.13 (< -7> ).. 3,. (ExxonMobil) (Jurong Island) 580 b/d, Pulau Bukom 449 b/d. (SPC) b/d. SPC 2009 PetroChina. < -9>, 1.3 b/d, 0.21 b/d, 0.13 b/d.,, Coker, FCC RFCC, HDC 64

90 ,.. SPC 10ppm, IV, 2014~15 V,. Jurong Aromatics Corp.(JAC) 110 b/d 20. JAC 100 BP. JAC Hin Leong 300~ 500kb/d. < -10>, b/d, 500 b/d b/d, CPC 205 b/d, 280 b/d, 187 b/d. CPC,,, 70%. FPCC 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 65

91 Yunlin 504 b/d 90% CPC. 11) CPC Taoyuan b/d 28 b/d, CPC Dalin b/d, CPC Kaoshiung b/d. CPC Dalin 2. CPC 2015, (EPA) , CPC. < -13> Formosa Petroleum 46.7 b/d, CPC b/d, 2019 Formosa Petroleum 180 b/d CPC b/d b/d. 11) ppm, ppm. 66

92 7, 2 1,122 b/d. Pertamina. Pertamina. 3.8 b/d Cepu. 6 b/d Bojonegoro PT Tri Wahana Universal(TWU) 2009 Cepu(Banyu Urip). TPPI 100 b/d Tuban Pertamina LSWR. LPG,,, Pertamina. Pertamina 2. LSWR Cilacap RFCC. Pertamina PT Petramit 20:80. Pertamina,. Pertamina RFCC Plaju/Musi FCC. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 67

93 Pertamina Cilacap Plaju 3. Balikpapan 50 b/d. Dumai/Sei Pakning 200 b/d. Balongan 200kb/d. Balongan, 300 b/d Pertamina.. 7., IOCL Koyali 40 b/d. Panipat. IOCL Koyali., IOCL CPCL ( ) , BS-IV. CPCL CDU/VDU 2012., Essar Oil Vadinar I- (80 b/d)

94 1. II- 2017,. Essar II- 320 b/d 160 b/d. HPCL Bhatinda (180 b/d) MRPL (64 b/d) MRPL III-. CDU/VDU FCC,, (DHDT),., BPCL 1.8 b/d 2.4 b/d. BPCL III IV Paradeep IOCL (300 b/d) IOCL DCU FCC,, b/d. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 69

95 .... Byco Petroleum Pakistan Ltd.( Bosicor Pakistan Ltd.) 120 b/d Balochistan. Byco b/d.. Pakistan Refinery Ltd.(PRL) Karachi Multan Pak Arab Refinery Co(PARCO) -II. 3 b/d Attock Refinery Ltd. Rawalpindi 11.5 b/d

96 PARCO (IPIC) MOU ,, PARCO IPIC < -17>, < -18> b/d.. 7,. 2020,. CDU, 500 b/d CDU. 2020, 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 71

97 CDU CDU ~2009, ,287 b/d 26,166 b/d.,. LPG,, 2005,,, (< 4-9> ) % b/d, % 33,163 b/d. LPG b/d, LPG,,

98 (= - ) 420 b/d 2015~ b/d ,159 b/d, 50% 584 b/d. 2020,, LPG,,,. < 표 4-9> 아시아태평양석유제품수급균형 1,813 3,003 5,488 2,623 9,173 2,066 1,966 26,132 1,065 1, ,034 2, , , ,018 1, ,250 2,696 4,170 5,040 2,343 8,188 3,124 2,166 27,726 1,953 3,139 5,896 2,755 9,754 2,115 2,131 27,744 1,113 1,703 1, ,064 2, , , ,981 1, ,135 2,907 4,394 5,474 2,512 8,836 3,174 2,341 29,638 2,177 3,489 6,388 2,949 10,799 2,250 2,391 30,443 1,166 1,742 1, ,211 2, , , ,730 1, ,841 3,171 4,818 6,103 2,883 10,279 3,276 2,633 33,163 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 73

99 2020 LPG,,. LPG,,, 10 LPG (< 4-10> ). LPG,, LPG.,,, LPG, FGE(2011) 3 2 b/d, 49 b/d, 28 b/d, 36 b/d LPG ,,,, b/d, 360 b/d, 310 b/d, 179 b/d (bunkering port) 694 b/d 188 b/d (1,065 b/d) 88%.,,,,,,, %, 98%. 74

100 < 표 4-10> 아태지역국가별및제품별순수입 ( 수출 ) 전망 (26) (3) (190) 76 (98) (205) (308) (109) (388) (173) 21 (991) 101 (11) (111) (2) (40) (20) (140) (38) (39) 120 (22) (18) 6 (7) 3 5 (22) (5) (4) (5) (1) 125 (38) 149 (144) (109) (274) 694 (61) (178) (247) (423) 32 (29) (114) (51) (224) (33) (35) (111) (62) (10) (155) ,168 (449) (279) (984) 1, ,604 (22) (2) (49) 108 (203) 105 (163) (132) (316) (32) (182) (224) 54 (603) 125 (15) 295 (4) 149 (72) (40) (28) (32) 193 (12) 10 4 (6) (51) 4 (21) (15) (23) (1) 193 (36) 179 (137) (80) (261) 810 (59) (208) (240) (408) 54 (28) (129) (113) (44) (209) (32) (33) (94) (68) (10) (37) ,328 (283) (66) (519) 1, ,728 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 75

101 b/d b/d, 60 b/d... (100 b/d ). RFCC FCC b/d b/d, 11.1 b/d. 150 b/d,, b/d b/d 13.3 b/d. 100 b/d,, LPG. 76

102 b/d 0.2%( 350 b/d) % 340 b/d...,., %(59 b/d). LPG b/d 250 b/d b/d 355 b/d. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 77

103 BS-IV BS-III. ( ). LPG LPG 71% 128 b/d (3.94 b/d) 40%, 15%, LPG 11% 8% b/d 19%. 62%, Reliance(RIL) SEF,. RIL Hess,.,,.. LPG LPG. 5 75%. 78

104 (= + ) 751 b/d, 640 b/d 85% % b/d, b/d, b/d.,.,,,,,,,,..,,, b/d , 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 79

105 b/d b/d 70%, 8.3%. 7 FPCC #2 504 b/d Yunlin %. GDP 10% 4.7% Yunlin, ~2020 1% ~80% b/d, b/d. CPC Dalin 75 b/d RFCC. RFCC 10ppm 80

106 . Dalin RFCC. 2010, 81.5% 82.1%.,, LPG LPG 62 b/d LPG. LPG LPG LPG LPG ( UAE) LPG.,.. (LSWR) LPG 2020, 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 81

107 Pertamina Cilacap RFCC 2013 Plaju FCC b/d, b/d, b/d. 12) b/d, 82 b/d, 21 b/d, 92%., %( 7% ), 100 b/d PARCO 1.., (CNG) 13) 12) Pertamina 3 2. FGE(2011) Cilacap Plaju RFCC/FCC. 82

108 . CNG LPG, b/d Khalifa b/d b/d Boscior. Boscior b/d Khalifa 5~10 b/d ~135 b/d. LNG, 2014~15 LNG Bosicor 2014 Attock. 2016, Khalifa 13) 200~250kg/ 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 83

109 . LNG. LPG CNG., b/d 90%,, 50 b/d. 84

110 b/d,,,,, b/d., 47.6 b/d 14, 29.7 b/d 25.7 b/d. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 85

111 12.6 b/d, 8.6 b/d, 7.9 b/d. < 표 5-1> 주요국가의정제시설현황 17, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,,,

112 . 14),. (RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage). (absolute advantage) (comparative advantage) (David Ricardo).. (1) : : : : : 14). 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 87

113 ,855 b/d 1,500 b/d 14. OECD,, 9, OECD,, 5. 15) , ) UN OECD (SITC(Standard International Trade Classification) Revision 3 Section 3). 88

114 WTO UN 12. RCA , RCA , , RCA , , RCA 1.. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 89

115 < 표 5-2> 주요국가의석유제품 RCA 지수 (conversion). (complexity)., (Wilbur L. Nelson) (Nelson Index) 90

116 . 16), ( ) ( )..,.. 넬슨지수 Qi i ( b/d), i=0 Q0 (distillation). i. i (complexity factor). i i. i.. 100,000b/d $1, 16) Oil & Gas Journal 3 14 p. 189; 9 26 p. 216; 6 19 p. 109 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 91

117 $10 (=$1 /100,000). 20,000b/d $1.2, $60 (=$1.2 /20,000). 촉매분해 6 (=$60/$10) Oil & Gas Journal. < 5-3>,, 감압증류 2.0,, 열분해 < 표 5-3> 개별정제시설의복잡성요소수치 (Distillation) 1.0 (Vacuum Distillation) 2.0 (Thermal Processes) 2.75 (Coking) 6.0 (Catalytic Cracking) 6.0 (Alkylation) 10.0 Gary, Handwerk & Kaiser(2007) - Baton Rouge 92

118 . - Baton Rouge 12, ( ) < 5-4>. < 표 5-4> 엑슨 - 모빌 Baton Rouge 시설의넬슨지수 501, , , , , , , , , , , Baton Rouge 501 b/d, 227 b/d, 229 b/d. i 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 93

119 i ( ). Gary, Handwerk & Kaiser(2007) Oil & Gas Journal ( ). Baton Rouge b/d 14. [ 5-1] Oil & Gas Journal. 17) (10.9), (9.7), (8.9), (8.8) (5.6), (5.0), (3.9), (3.4), (2.5) ) Oil & Gas Journal(2011) 94

120 . [ 그림 5-1] 넬슨지수를통한정제경쟁력비교,... 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 95

121 ...,,..,,.,. 2020,,.,., LPG,, LPG

122 .. LPG 18). LPG ,. 19),.. 18) 1, 2, ) C LNG. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 97

123 ., 2020,. LPG ,,.. LPG LPG. 10,000MW LNG

124 . LPG LPG. < 5-5> LPG.,, < 표 5-5> 2012~2020 년아태지역국가별초과수요예상제품 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 99

125 %., % % % %, %

126 -.., ,., -...,. 2011, -EU FTA., -EU FTA 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 101

127 . OECD.. (EV).,.....,.,,,,..,,. 102

128 ...,. LPG, 2020., LPG 20. LPG. LPG 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 103

129 . LPG 20%....,.,,, ,,. (HDC). [ 5-2], HDC 5, 104

130 . HDC (RCC) 5 HDC 1~2, HDC RCC 2012~2025 HDC. HDC [ 그림 5-2] 정제마진전망 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 105

131 < 5-7> (RCC) %, (reforming) 9.8%., (HDC) 11.2%. HDC. 20%, 25% HDC., 45.8%.. 100%,,,,, 70%.,,, 30%.. 106

132 LPG. 10%.., OECD,..... 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 107

133 < 표 5-6> 주요국의원유정제능력대비고도화설비비율 ) 20).. 108

134 .... SK (Petrovietnam) BSR 21) , (hub). AOC(Aramco Overseas Company),,, 21) BSR(Binh Son Refining & Petrocemical) Petrovietnam, Petrovietnam. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 109

135 ,,, BTX, P-X, VCM, SM.,..,.,,.. PP 100%,. 110

136 ..,.. 22). (O&M)...,,. (E&P)., IT,,,,. 22) 2009 GS 4 7. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 111

137 . (forward linkage). < 표 5-7> 국내정제설비건설에대한제도적지원 112

138 ( ) < 5-8>. 10% , (FTA). FTA -, -, -EFTA, 23) -, 24) -, -EU, -., FTA. FTA 25) - - FTA. FTA FTA., FTA -, -, -GCC, 26) -, 23) 4 :,,, 24) 10 :,,,,,,,,, 25) 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 113

139 -, -, -. GCC FTA. FTA. (FDI: Foreign Direct Investment).,.,,. 27),,...,, 26) GCC(Gulf Cooperation Council):, UAE,,,, 6 27) (2010), pp

140 ...,,,.,.. (PF) PF.., PF.., PF 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 115

141 .,.. 116

142 2., % % %, %, %. ( 27% ) % %, (37 ), (129 ), B-C (58 ) (254 ) LPG(94 ). 제 6 장결론 117

143 b/d, 66%.,. 2020,,,,,, 8 b/d,. 2020,,, LPG,.,, , 449 b/d 283 b/d, 279 b/d 66 b/d, 984 b/d 519 b/d. LPG., b/d 14., (RCA: Revealed 118

144 Comparative Advantage), (Nelson). 50 b/d b/d,. RCA RCA 1, RCA,, ,,.,,..,,.,,. 제 6 장결론 119

145 ... LPG. (NOC).. 19%. (HDU)

146 ..,.... (FTA). (GCC) FTA 제 6 장결론 121

147 122

148 참고문헌 123

149 124

150 < 부표 -1> 중국정제시설현황 (2010 ~ 2011) , , ,

151 126 < 부표 -1: 계속 > 중국정제시설현황 (2010 ~ 2011) CNPC/Petrochina CNOOC Northwest North South Northeast 1, Southwest West North South Lower Yangtze Local Northwest North 1, South Lower Yangtze Northeast Southwest West Grand Total 11, , , , , ,

152 < 부표 -2> 확정및예정 된중국정제시설 (100.0) (12.0) (7.4) - (6.0) (30.0) (100.0)

153 128 < 부표 -2: 계속 > 확정및예정 된중국정제시설 (100.0) (50.0) (50.0)

154 < 부표 -2: 계속 > 확정및예정 된중국정제시설 (100.0) (100.0) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) , ,