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1 韓國開發硏究제 31 권제 2 호 ( 통권제 15 호 ) 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와 정부의범죄억지정책 김두얼 ( 한국개발연구원부연구위원 ) 김지은 ( 한국개발연구원연구원 ) Growth of Felonies after the 1997 Financial Crisis in Korea Duol Kim (Associate Research Fellow, Korea Development Institute) Jee Eun Kim (Research Assistant, Korea Development Institute) * 본논문의초고는경제학공동학술대회법경제학회분과, 서울대학교법과대학법과문화포럼및경제학부경제사세미나, 경제사상연구회, 29 Annual Meeting of Asian Law and Economics Association, KDI Journal of Economic Policy Conference, 29 KIEA International Conference 에서발표되었다. 유익한논평을해주신김종면, 이인재, 윤용준선생님및세미나참석자여러분께감사드린다. ** 김두얼 : ( ) duolkim@kdi.re.kr, (address) Korea Development Institute, 49 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 13-74, Korea 김지은 : ( ) mangodream@kdi.re.kr, (address) Korea Development Institute, 49 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 13-74, Korea * Key 한진희 Word: -제1 (Felonies), 저자, 최용석 -공저자 1997 (Financial Crisis of 1997), (Deterrence Policy), (Crime Rate), (Repeated Offender) JEL code: H4, H59, K14, K42, N4 Received: Referee Process Started: Referee Reports Completed:

2 ABSTRACT The Korean economy successfully overcame the macroeconomic downturns driven from the Asian financial crisis in a very short period of time. The economic shock, however, generated a variety of social problems, one of which was the increase in felonies (homicides, robbery, rape, and arson), or degradation of public safety. We argue that the Korean criminal policy has not been effective to ameliorate the rising trends in crime caused by the financial crisis. In order to substantiate this claim, we assess the effectiveness of criminal policy: policing, sentencing, and corrections. First, there has been resource shortage in policing since the 1997 financial crisis. For the past ten years, the investment of human resource and budget in the police has been virtually stagnant, as well as in prosecutors investigation activities. The insufficient resource allocation in policing caused a huge decline in arrest rates and prosecution rates. Second, the Korean judicial system has not increased the severity of punishment. Comparing the pre- and the post-financial crisis period, the average length of prison sentence by the courts has declined. Given the degrading in the quality of crime and the decreasing amount of inputs into the policing and prosecution, the government should have increased the severity of punishment to deter crime. Third, we found that the government hired more officers and allocated larger budget into prison and probation. However, it is difficult to suggest that the increased level of resources in correctional programs have been effective in preventing released prisoners from committing future crimes. This is because the number of repeat offenders convicted of more than a third offense increased dramatically since 1997, pushing felonies upward. In sum, the government organizations failed to respond respectively or to make coordinated actions, eventually causing a dramatic increase in crimes. This research brings explicit policy implications. In order to prevent possible additional degradation of public safety, the government must put more efforts into increasing the effectiveness of policy and to investing more resources into said policies. We also emphasize the importance of the institutional mechanisms which foster policy coordination among the Police, the Prosecutor s Office, the Ministry of Justice, and other relevant government organizations.

3 ABSTRACT

4 158 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ Ⅰ. 서론 ,.,,,,,. 1),.,. (28), (27), (28), (23),. Cook and Zarkin(1985), Raphael and Winter-Ebmer(21), Donohue and Levitt (21), Machin and Meghir(24). Levitt (24, p.171), , 1).

5 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 159 (, deterrence)..,.,..,,,,,,.,,,.. (index crime).,.,,,,,. Ⅱ. 범죄억지정책의틀 (security) (deterrence) (prevention) (punishment)..,

6 16 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ <Table 1> Theoretical Framework of Criminal Deterrence Policy (A) Policy measures and goals of criminal deterrence Policy Measures Policy Instruments Intermediate Variables Policy Goal Police Forces and Expenditure Policing Sentencing Workforce and Expenditure in the Prosecution Office Prosecutor s demanded sentence Sentence by the courts Arrest Rates Control the number of crime and crime rate Correction Workforce Expenditure Repeat Offense Rates (B) Government organizations in charge of policy instruments Criminal Deterrence Policy Policing The Police O Government Organizations The Prosecution Apprehension O O The Court Sentencing O O Correction The Ministry of Justice O. 2) (incapacitation), (rehabilitation).. ( ) ( ), ( ), ( ) (Table 1 ).,,. 2) Becker(1968).

7 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 161,,.,....,,,. Becker(1968), Ehrlich (1973), Wolpin(1978)..,,.,,,.,..,..,,,,

8 162 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ, (coordination failure).,,..,. Ⅲ. 흉악범죄의추이.,..,,, 4 ( ) ( ),. 3), 27 21, (Table 2 ). 1.1%, 2.5%,,,, 5.4%, 21.4%, 3), ( ), ( ),. ( ),

9 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 163 <Table 2> The Number of Crimes and Trial Cases in 27 Crime Occurrence and Treatment (Criminal Analysis) The criminal trial (book of Judicature) Name of Offense Reported case The number of Cases in prosecuted Trial Name of Offense Received case Criminal Offense 845, ,521 63,695 Criminal Offense 11,388 Homicide 1, Homicide 762 Robbery 4,47 1,397 1,397 Theft 212,53 22,353 1,736 Robbery and Theft 14,44 Arson 1, Accidental Fire 1, Arson and Accidental Fire 83 Rape 13,634 4,52 2,17 Adultery Rape and Adultery 2,153 Others 69,338 24,197 48,416 Others 92,626 Special Law Offense 1,12, ,952 53,134 Special Law Offense 139,784 Total 1,965,977 1,42, ,829 Total 25,172 Felony 2,922 6,525 4,48 Violent Crime 18,973 5,574 3,146 Violent Crime 3,718 Notes: Felony includes homicide, robbery, arson, and rape. Violent crime refers to homicide, arson, accidental fire, rape, and adultery. See the text for detailed discussion on the definition of the violent crime. Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis 28, pp.5~55, 343~345; National Court Administration, book of Judicature 28, pp.864~ %, 65.1%. 21, 196 3, 6 (Figure 1 ). 4) 7% )

10 164 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ [Figure 1] Trends in Felonies and Felony Rates(1967~27) Number of felonies Felony rates Number of felonies Felony rate Notes: Felony rate is computed per 1, people. Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis; Korea National Statistical Office, Korea Statistical book ,~5, 198 1, , ,.. 5),,, , 4.5, 8, 1, 1997 (Figure 2 ). < 3> , 5)

11 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 165 [Figure 2] Trends in Felonies and Felony Rates by Category(1967~27) (A) Homicide Number of Crimes Crime rate Number of crimes Crime rate (B) Robbery Number of crimes Crime rate Number of crimes Crime rate

12 166 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ (C) Arson Number of crimes Crime rate Number of crimes Crime rate (D) Rape Number of crimes Crime rate Number of crimes Crime rate Notes: Crime rate is computed per 1, people. Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis; Korea National Statistical Office, Korea Statistical book.

13 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 167 <Table 3> Proportion of Felonies and the Growth Rate Number of Crimes Proportion(%) ~27 Felony 5,229 9,135 11,914 2,964 Homicide ,94 Robbery 1,24 3,23 4,425 4,577 Arson ,69 Rape 3,179 4,923 5,79 13,64 Felony Homicide Robbery Arson Rape Average Annual Growth Rate (%) Felony Homicide Robbery Arson Rape Notes: The number of cases is the three-year average before and after the base year. The average for 27 is the average of 26 and 27. The average annual growth rate is computed by average value of annual growth rates. Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis....

14 168 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ [Figure 3] Intentional Homicide Rates of the OECD Countries(2~24) 6 Intentional Homicides (per 1, people) United States Turkey Switzerland Finland Sweden Slovenia Czech Republic Korea Hngrary United Kingdom Canada Portugal France Poland Nation Belgium Australia New Zealand Italy Spain Germany Iceland Netherands Norway Luxembourg Austria Denmark Greece Notes: Homicide rate is computed per 1,. The homicide rates of Mexico marks 13 per 1, people, the highest among the OECD nations, but excluded in this figure. The average of homicide rates in the OECD countries is 2.16 (1.77 excluding Mexico), median is 1.6. Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 27/28, pp.322~325...,, 2 25 UNDP, OECD (Figure 3 ). 6), OECD..,, 6) UNDP 199 Human Development Report, 26, 27/8.

15 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 169, DNA..,..,..,. 4 2, 8, ,,,.. [Figure 4] , ( )

16 17 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ [Figure 4] Trends in Felony, Violent Crime, and All Crimes(1977~27) Crime Index Felony All crimes Violent crime Notes: The average of crimes occurred from 197 to 198 is indexed as 1. Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis.. [Figure 1],. 1997,.. Ⅳ. 정부의범죄억지정책 1. 방범및검거,,,. 7)

17 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 171,., , , , (Figure 5(A) ) , 3.,,, , 27 96,324 3 (Figure 5(B) ). 63, 9% 57, , 1 1% 6,695. 8) , ,, , 1 5 (Figure 6(A) ).,. (Figure 6(B) )., 198 7) 2 3, 3. 8),

18 172 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ [Figure 5] Trends in Police (A) Police(1975~26) Police (unit=1) Police per 1, people Police forces Police forces per 1, people (B) Police Officers, Combat Police, Administrative Employees(196~27) unit= 1 people Police officer Combat police Administrative employees Source: The National Police Agency, The Whitepaper of Police; The National Police Agency, Statistical book of Police; Statistical Korea, Korean Statistical Information Service(KOSIS)

19 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 173 [Figure 6] Trends in Police Expenditure(Real Term, 2, = 1) (A) Police Expenditure(1975~27) Police expenditure (Unit=1 billion won) Expenditure per police (Unit=1 million won) 연도 year Total Expenditure Expendiutre per polic (B) Proportion of Labor Cost in Police Expenditure and Expenditure on Non-Labor Cost per Police(1982~27) 7 14 Proportion of labor cost in total police expenditure (%) Non-labor cost per police (Unit=1 million won) Proportion of labor cost Non-labor expenditure per police Notes: We divided total police expenditure by the number of police officers since the number of total police employees is not available for some years. Labor Cost Raito of labor cost = Total Police Expenditure Source: The National Police Agency, The Whitepaper of Police; The National Police Agency, Statistical book of Police.

20 174 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ 199 5%, 2 15%p 65% ( ) 총예산 인건비 경찰청인력 (1). [Figure 6] (B), , ,7, , 27 8, (Figure 7(A) ) , (Figure 7(B) ).,, 1. 9),., %, 9) 1.

21 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 175 [Figure 7] Trends of Workforce and Expenditure in the Prosecution (A) Workforce in the Prosecution Prosecutor Prosecution Employees Prosecutor Prosecution Employee (Excluding prosecutors) (B) Assistant Employees per Prosecutor and Real Expenditure Assistant employees per prosecutor Expenditure per prosecutor (2=1) Assistant employees per prosecutor Expenditure per prosecutor Total Prosecution Employees Prosecutors Note: Assistants per prosecutor = Prosecutors Source: The Public Prosecutors' Quota Act, Ministry of Justice, book of Judicial Affairs.

22 176 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ [Figure 8] Arrest Rate of Offenders(1967~27) 15 1 Prosecution rate (%) Note: 1977~1997: The Average: 97.1%, Median 96.6%, 1998~27: The Average: 91.1%, Median 9.8%. Arrested cases Arrest Rates = Reported cases We excluded the arrest rate in 1993 because the number is 115%. Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis. 9% 6%p (Figure 8 ).,, 5% 2 3% (Figure 9(A) )., (Figure 9(B) ).,..

23 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 177 [Figure 9] Prosecution Rates and the Number of Prosecuted Offenders (A) All Crimes (1967~27) Prosecuted offenders Prosecution rates (%) Number of prosecuted offenders Prosecution rates (B) Prosecution Rates by Crime Category Prosecution rates Homicide Robbery Arson Rape Number of Prosecuted Offenders Note: Prosecution Rates = Number of Arrested Offenders Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis.

24 178 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ, ,. 2. 양형,, ,..,. t 1 (2) : t 1 : i.,.,..,,,,,

25 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 179,,. 1),,,., (Table 2 ).,.,.,..,, 1, 1, 3, 5, 1. (2) (3) : :.,,,,. 1), 21,,., 21,.,.

26 18 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ (2) % 2 2% (Figure 1(A) )., 197 6% 2 4% (Figure 1(B) )... <Table 4>., 1. <Table 4> 15, ,,,.,, 3..,.,

27 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 181 [Figure 1] Sentencing: Imprisonment, Suspended Sentencing, (A) Criminal Offense Monetary Penalty Number of the convicted Monetary penalty Suspended sentencing Dealth penalty, Imprisonment for life,iimprisonment for definite terms 25 (B) Violent Crimes 2 Number of the convicted Monetary penalty Suspended sentencing Dealth penalty, Imprisonment for life,iimprisonment for definite terms Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor s Office, Criminal Analysis.

28 182 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ <Table 4> Weight Given to a Sentence Range for Computation of the Average Prison Sentence Suspended Sentencing Fines Less than a year Imprisonment for definite terms 1~3 years 3~5 years 5~1 years More than 1 years Imprisonment for life Death Penalty Weight ,, (4). (4)., (4).,. (5),.,. [Figure 11]. 1...,, 3 5~1 1 (Figure 12 ).

29 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 183 [Figure 11] Sentencing of Violent Crimes(1975~27) 6 5 Average prison sentnece () Violent crime (imprisonment) Violent crime (All forms of sentence) Source: Ministry of Justice, book of Judicial Affairs; Ministry of Justice, book of Judicature. [Figure 12] Proportion of Each Sentence Length at the Criminal Trials Proportion (%) Less than 3 years 3-5 years 5-1 years More than 1 years Notes: The number of cases sentenced to Less than 3 years is the sum of Less than 1 year and Less than 3 years. Source: National Court Administration, book of Judicature.

30 184 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ 3., [Figure 13], ) 1.,. [Figure 1],,,,. 12) (5),. 3. 교정. 13), 11) ( 19 ), , ), [Figure 1(A)].. 13), 1.

31 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 185 [Figure 13] Number of Cases Sentenced to Imprisonment for Life and Death (A) Death Penalty Penalty(1975~27) Number of the convicted Creminal offense Violent crime Special law offense 16 (B) Imprisonment for life 14 Number of the convicted Criminal offense Violent crime Special law offense Source: Ministry of Justice, book of Judicial Affairs, National Court Administration, book of Judicature.

32 186 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ..,.,,. 14) (incapacitation), (rehabilitation). Levitt(24). Dills, Miron, and Summers(28) Levitt(24). Donohue and Siegelman(1998).,. 199 (Figure 14(A) ). (Figure 14(B) ) ,.,, (Figure 14(C), (D) ).. 14) (27), p.188.

33 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 187 [Figure 14] Trends in Prison Inmates and Resource Input(1981~26) (A) The Number of Prison Inmates per Prison Officer and the Real Expenditure per Prisoner Number of prisoners per prison officer Expenditure per prisoner (Unit=1billion, at 2 price) Number of prisoners per prison officer Real expenditure per prisoner (B) Average Number of Prison Inmates per Day 8 Average prison inmates per day (Unit=1 people) Average number of prison inmates per day

34 188 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ 16 (C) The Workforce of Correctional Facilities people Prison officer Correction commissioner (D) Expenditure on Correctional Facilities(At 2 prices) 9 8 Expenditure on Correctional Facilities (Unit=1 Billion, at 2 prices) Source: Ministry of Justice, book of Judicial Affairs.

35 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 , 1997,., 1997, 15 (Figure 15 ) ,, 7~8%. 2 4, 3 6, (Figure 16 )..... Ⅴ. 맺음말 1997., 1.,.,,

36 19 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ 4 [Figure 15] Trends in Probationers and Resource Input (A) The Number of Probationers per Probation Officers The number of probationers per probation officers Juvenile All age (B) Probationers and Number of Probation Officiers Probationer Probation officer Probationer Probation officer Source: Ministry of Justice, book of Judecial Affairs.

37 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 191 [Figure 16] Repeat Offenders among Felony Criminals(1975~27) Defendant (Unit=1 people) First offense Second offense More than third offense Source: The Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office, Criminal Analysis.,.,,,. 1,,.,.,, 3.

38 192 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ......

39 외환위기이후흉악범죄의증가와정부의범죄억지정책 193 참고문헌, :,, 8-11,, 28.,,.,,.,, 7-1,, 27.,,.,, 23-21,, 23.,,.,,.,,.,,.,, 8-8,, 28.,,, 8 2, 1999.,,,, 23.,,, 27. Becker, Gary, Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach, Journal of Political Economy 169, March/April 1968, pp.169~217. Cook, Philip J. and Gary A. Zarkin, Crime and the Business Cycle, Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan. 1985, pp.115~128. Dills, Angella, Jeffrey Miron, and Garrett Summers, What Do Economists Know About Crime? NBER Working Paper 13759, 28. Donohue, John, III, Understanding the Time Path of Crime, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Vol. 88, No. 4, Summer 1998, pp.1423~1452. Donohue, John, III and Steven Levitt, The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 2, May 21, pp.379~42. Donohue, John, III and Peter Siegelman, Allocating Resources among Prisons and Social Programs in the Battle against Crime, Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 28, January 1998, pp.1~43. Ehrlich, Issac, Participation in Illegitimate Activities, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, No.

40 194 韓國開發硏究 / 29. Ⅱ 3, May-Jun. 1973, pp.521~565. Levitt, Steven, Understanding Why Crimes Fell in the 199s: Four Factors That Explain the Decline and Six That Do Not, journal of Economic Perspectives 18 No. 1, 24, pp.163~19. Machin, Stephen and Costas Meghir, Crime and Economic Incentives, Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 39, No. 4, 24, pp.958~979. Raphael, Steven and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 44, No. 1, 21, pp.259~283. UNDP, Human Development Report 27/28. Wolpin, Kenneth I., An Economic Analysis of Crime and Punishment in England and Wales , The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, No. 5, Oct. 1978, pp.815~84.

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기획7.hwp 2014 사회정책연합 공동학술대회 한국사회의 사회안전망을 점검한다 복지확대기의 조세재정정책방향: 지방재정과의 연계 1) 최 성 은 (한국조세재정연구원) 1. 서론 최근 우리나라는 복지정책에 있어서 상당한 패러다임의 변화를 맞이하며 급격하게 복지확대기로 접어들고 있다. 현 정부의 무상보육, 의료보장성 확대, 기초연금의 도입 등은 그간 저소득층 및 취약계층 위주의