ª Œª Œ 29ƒ 5B Á 2009 9œ pp. 409 ~ 417 ª»z t ùkù»z yp Synoptic Change Characteristics of the East Asia Climate Appeared in Seoul Rainfall and Climatic Index Data y yá½ zá Á Hwang, Seok HwanÁKim, Joong HoonÁYoo, ChulsangÁChung, Gunhui Abstract In this study it was assessed the accuracy of the Chukwooki rainfall data in Seoul by comparing with tree-ring width index data, sunspot numbers, southern oscillation indexg (SOI) and global temperature anomaly. And it was investigated the correlations of climatic change and change characteristics in past north-east asia by comparisons of tree-ring width index data in near Korea. The results of this study shows that Chukwooki rainfall data has the strong reliance since the trends and depths of change are very well matched with other comparative data. And with the results by compared with tree-ring width index data in six sites of near Korea, climates of north-east asia are changed with strong correlations as being temporal and spatial and longterm periodic possibility of reproducing are exist on those changes. However characteristics of climate change post 1960 A.D. are investigated as represented differently to past although statistical moving characteristics or changing criterion are within the limitations of reproducing phase in the past since they represent the different trends and irregularity and their frequencies are increase. The results of this study are widely used on long-term forecasting for climate change in north-east asia. Keywords : tree-ring, climate change, Chukwooki tree-ring width t, k, û (SOI) mw d» y ƒ w. š w tree-ring width t mw»z y yp q w. d» w y ƒ ewš w ƒ š y. š w 6 tree-ring width t,»»z œ w ƒ š ywš y» x w. ù 1960 z»z y p m p ù ys x w ù w ³e š x» š ùkù. w»z y» d w q. w : Tree-ring,»z y, d» 1. d»» ƒ d ƒ j. ù ¾ d» w» š k š, p 1900 z w»» w w j (, 2000). w y w z Áw» (E-mail : sukany@kict.re.kr) z Á Áš w œ w Á zy œw (E-mail : jaykim@korea.ac.kr) z Áš w œ w Á zy œw (E-mail : envchul@korea.ac.kr) z Áš w w» l (E-mail : gunhui@korea.ac.kr) tƒ d» w w š.» w w d» w ƒ w ù d» w ùküš š, ƒ» s³ ù t r» m p q w ù d» y w q t w ww., d 29ƒ 5B 2009 9œ 409
» t d» y w š q, w d» y ƒ ƒ w tree-ring t w d» y ƒ w š w. w tree-ring t mw»z y p q w š w. Tree-ring t mw, 500» ƒ wš p w» ƒ, y»z p wš»»z y. ù tree-ring t ù p» y ƒ wš ƒ w w yw» y w y w»ƒ ƒ. w, ù w w ƒ e yw w w»ƒ. ³ (1998) š ù 27 s(tree-ring width) d w 265 (1731-1995)» w š, mw 5 (1908-1995 x de) ƒ ƒ.» x de z w 1731 ¾ 5 w š l w 5» z 19» w» 20» w š w. š 1800 z 1900 ¾ (1890-1930)ƒ» ù mw y w., ù w ƒ ù ƒ ww w q. (2001) w ù w mw ù ùküš, -û w 1, 2, 3 11 û (SOI) ƒ š w. ù w» p w. w»z l j ƒ w (, 1998) y Á w»z y y w q w š w. Kang and Jeong (1996) w ƒw w. ù, ks w ƒ w»z y š w w» ks w y» w x ƒ w w wš. š,»» e (Chaos)ƒ wš d û p š (, 1998, ). w»z y wì, tree-ring t w w x ¾» y ³ w w d wd q.» x»» y w» j»» yp y wü».»»z» p ù»» w w»z w y p wz»z y sl ( ) w dw ƒ. 2. p d», y tree-ring t. Tree-ring t NCDC(National Climatic Data Center) z w tree-ring width index w. d» d d ƒ 1 (1 ó2 mm) 0.1 mm d w d w d ƒ j ( x, 1994). ù w 4 10 ¾ e w j., w š w w d» š w š w 4 10 ¾ w.»z y p w» w d» tree-ring t w š,»z y k, û (Southern Oscillation Index, SOI), s³» r ùkü (Global temperature anomaly) wì w. w w t 1 w š treering t 1. p ùkü t û (SOI) w. û Tahiti w» y Darwin w» š(horel and Wallace, 1981) ³» k ùkü.»»z yp š w k NINO3 SST(150W-90W 5S-5N s³w w )» ƒ w û w. NINO3 SST SOI š wš (Horel and Wallace, 1981). SOI = SLP TAHITI SLP DARWIN, SLP:sea level pressure 1920 Gibert Walker dw» w ƒ»» mw ks w» w w. û s ƒ ù,» ks ƒ ks w ƒ w. (1) 410 ª Œª Œ
Table 1. Descriptions of data sets Yearly data types Rainfall (Summations of the monthly rainfall data from April to October) Numbers of sunspots (Summations of the monthly sunspot numbers) South oscillation index (Averages of monthly SOIs) Global annual average near-surface temperature anomalies (Averages of monthly temperatures) Tree-ring width index (TRWI) Note: (1) Site name and location (2) Species information (3) Position(longitude, latitude, elevation) Index name (Rainfall) (SSN) (SOI) (GTA) (KOR) (JAP1) (JAP2) (CHA) (MON) (RUS) Data descriptions and Site locations Seoul, Republic of Korea (N37.56, E126.99) Chukwooki data and mordern rain gage data National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/ Monthly Southern Oscillation Index National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology Combined land-surface air temperature and sea-surface temperature http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs Period 1777-2006 1749-2006 1876-2006 1850-2006 Whachae Peak-Sorak Mountain, Korea (1) PIKO KOREAN PINE (2) (N38.08, E128.28, 1500 m) (3) 1657-1998 Ashiu Locality 2, Kyoto, Japan CMJA JAPANESE CEDAR (N35.20, E135.43, 650 m) Mountain Asahidake, Hokkaido, Japan PCGN SAKHALIN SPRUCE (N43.46, E142.33, 1350 m) Qilan Mountains, Qinghai, China JUSP JUNIPER (N38.10, E100.20, 3400 m) Undur Ulaan, Mongolia LASI SIBERIAN LARCH (N48.59, E103.14, 1400 m) Esso Village, Kamchatka, Russia LAGM LARIX KURULENSIS (N55.54, E158.48, 900 m) 1767-1983 1532-1997 1414-1986 1511-2002 1690-1984 Fig. 1 Locations of tree-ring index sites (TRWI) and Seoul rainfall site (Rainfall) û ƒ j ƒ», j ƒ ÿ». 3~7» ù» ùkù w š. û ƒ ks ƒ š ks ƒ. û ƒ û ks ƒ ƒ. ks e (seesaw) š 1960 f s w Jacob Bjerknes w», r t w š -û (El-Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO) š. w y ƒ w w» s û ùkù» w, ƒ m w ù w. ƒ w w» w û ùkù» wš w ùkù» w. ù ew ¾ ks š œ» w» w wì ù ù w w ùkù. 3.»» (long-term persistency) 29ƒ 5B 2009 9œ 411
t w» w s³ y ( x»») w. w ƒ f y ù p q w».» wš»»ù q w» w w s³. ù s³» ü w ùkü š ¼ wù ƒ» ü s w w» w ùkü wš. s ³ s³ w» y w w». ƒ wš, ƒ w ƒ 20 s³ y w t w. s³ w y w w ùkü yp w. s³ y w» w» 20 š w š g s³ y w. 2. ƒ ù»z y w m 10 20 m e wš.» 20 kw»»z y» w 20 v w š q w». š» (2004) w d w 20» 10 s³ y» ƒw w s f ƒ ƒ w w. 10 s ³ m e» yw ùkü w. 20 s³ y (S) w» w w. = {,,, } S S n 1 S n + S N + 2 = = =», S k+ n = ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- (2) k+ 1 2 k+ 1 2 n x i x i», x ùkü, y ƒ, n» 20, N», k 20» s³ y w», S k+n» ü ƒ n s³ y. 4. k+ 1 k+ 1 n x i y i x i i k i = k i 4.1» 2 w 10 ƒ 20 s³ y (SL20) ùküš. e 20 ƒ s³ y ùküš w e j. 2 ƒ d»» ƒ w» w tx wš. ù d»» d»» w. 2 1844 1925 ( 20 s³ y sw» 1824 1924 ¾ ) d» (Rainfall(A)) tree-ring width t (KOR(A), MON(A), JAP2(A)) s³ y» w. z» r» txwš» 1820 1870» (»1) 1800 z 1900» (»2). 4.2 tree-ring width t 2 s³ y k i = k k+ 1 y i i k Fig. 2 Plot of SL20s for each data sets 412 ª Œª Œ
w w tree-ring width t s³ y w (KOR), (MON) š (JAP2). JAP1 w ewš ù ys ù w š w w wù 4.4 w w.» w w,»2 1800 z 1900» (Rainfall) 20 s³ y tree-ring width t 20 s³ y KOR, MON, JAP2ƒ š w»»ƒ y w.»»»ƒ.,»1 1820 1870 ¾» ( 2 1840 ~1870 ) 20 s³ y» w z w wš ù KOR w w š. (Rainfall) 20 s³ y» q w s³» w ù»». KOR MON JAP2 ù 20 s³ y w š. p MON» 20 s³ y KOR 20 s³ y w š. m w w w» w»z w ƒ. w ww»1 tree-ring width t 20 s³ y w»2» ƒ q. w w w û (1992) w, x š» m w 1830 1850» w y w š, þ ( ) w ƒ j»» ƒ(1833-1839 ) w» w. š š d» š» mw 1830 1840» 7 8 ƒ».» KOR w ƒ w w w w k w. ƒ»1 k w,»1 w k ƒ»1 ƒw w š.,» k 20 s³ y tree-ring width t 20 s³ y w w. ù k»z (p» ) yw ³ w» w v w»1 w ù û (SOI)» yƒ ƒ j š. 4.3 û (SOI) tree-ring width t Fig. 3 Comparison between SL20 of JAP1 and SL20 of Rainfall wƒ w 2 3 û (SOI) 20 s³ y 20 s³ y w. Lau(1992) w ƒ ƒ w, yw w w š š w (, 1998, ). ù, w»z w x ¾ w. Kang and Jeong(1996) w ƒw w. ù 20 s³ y w» û y -û y w q - û» w š., û w» û yw š. ù, 1960 ( 2 3 20 s³ y 1980 ù w» 1960 ) z û (SOI) 20 s³ y w w 20 s³ y ƒwš.» k 20 s³ y» s³ zwš k w w ù p š,»ƒ 20 s³ y š ew 1960 z k w w y w w z w ƒƒ ƒ wš š q.» w w š» yw ³. 4.4 m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 6 m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y w (Rainfall) 20 s³ y v ùkü y tƒ k ƒ¾ x k w z wš 29ƒ 5B 2009 9œ 413
Fig. 4 Comparison of delay time between SL20 of JAP1 and SL20 of Rainfall Fig. 5 Return period of SL20 of JAP1 and SL20 of Rainfall ( 6 z ). l w ƒ š ywš dw. p, 3, 4, 6 7 ww w 20 s³ y» 1888 z(20 s³ y š w w 1868 z) w 20 s³ y m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y 10 š w y ewš 414 ª Œª Œ
Fig. 6 Long-term trend of relations between SL20 of JAP1 SL20 of Rainfall; Steady period, Lag10 refers to the cases that SL20 of JAP1 were lagged ten years. w s³ y» 20 10 e» w» h»z w»z» y 10 š w š q w. 4 (5, 7, 10, 15, 20 ) v 10 ƒ ùkù y ƒ w. š 5 rp mw (Rainfall) 20 s³ y» m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y» w» 40 60 w ùkû., w m tree-ring width t ƒ 1983 w y ù 1980 z(20 s³ y w 1960 ) wš,» y w š h tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y w 20 s³ y 1960 z ƒ w w š š. 6 m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y 10 k 20 s³ y š. 1867 ( 6 1887 ù 20 s³ y l š ) 1948 m tree-ring width t (JAP1) s³ y 1877 1962 (1950~1953 w ƒ y w ù d w š, 6 1897 ù 20 s³ y l š ) s³ y ƒ 0.91 š. š w m tree-ring t (JAP1)ƒ 1983 w ¾ yw ù 1943 1983 m tree-ring width t s³ y 1949 (1950~1953 w ƒ Fig. 7 Long-term trend of relations between SL20 of JAP1 SL20 of Rainfall; Transition period, Lag10 refers to the cases that SL20 of JAP1 were lagged ten years y ù d ) 1993» 6 w., 6 1940 z, 20 s³ y»»» w ƒwš 20 s³ y r( r) ƒw m tree-ring width t (JAP1) s³ y 20 s³ y y x w ƒw. m tree-ring width t (JAP1) w»z w w 20 s³» š w w y w w ùy x w w» y w š ù» š w v w. w»» w. 7 1858 (20 s³ y» 1878 ) 1886 m tree-ring Fig. 8 Long-term trend of relations among SL20 of rainfall, SL20 of KOR and SL20 of MON 29ƒ 5B 2009 9œ 415
width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y 1868(20 s³ y» 1888 ) 1896 20 s³ y x»» 4.1 š 0.93. š 1929 (20 s³ y» 1949 ) 1962 m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y 1939 (20 s³ y» 1963, 1950~1953 ) 1972 x»» 4.5 š 0.90.» w w w»»»ƒ» e ƒ d. 4.5 tree-ring width t (MON) 8 w»z w. 1824 (20 s³ y» 1844 ) 1916 tree-ring width t 20 s³ y» w tree-ring width t 20 s³ y ( w x) š ƒ 0.77 ùkùš. 1863 (20 s³ y» 1883 ) 1925 tree-ring width t 20 s³ y 20 s³ y š š ƒ 0.76. l 1820 1920»»z w»z w ƒ dw.» w y t w x w» yw w ywš š w 1800 1900 ¾»z w»z w ƒ w. 4.6»z y p w mw»z œ w ƒ š ywš. mw w y yƒ yw ù» y m w œ» ƒ š yw.,» mw»z yƒ p» w» yw» y y y w š,» y» x w. 1960 z y y w ùy y j w, y y ù» w» y d w x ƒ š,» y j ƒ w. ù w w p ù s w» xƒ d ƒ., 1960 z p p ù s x w w, w ³ew ùkùš š x»ƒ š yp ƒ š w. w»»z y d w q. 5. d» y ƒ ƒ w tree-ring width t w d» y ƒ w š, w tree-ring width t mw»z y yp q w., ù 6 tree-ring width t, k, û (SOI), 10 ƒ 20 s³ y w d» sƒw š,» w w. mw»z y» w., 1. 20 s³ y tree-ring width t 20 s³ y mw 1800 z 1900»2 w e»» y w. 1820 1870 ¾»1 w»z w ƒ ù,»2 ƒ» y( )ƒ ƒ š q. 2. û (SOI) 20 s³ y w» û» w š. š 1960 z w w z w ƒƒ ƒ ƒ. 3. m tree-ring width t (JAP1) 20 s³ y w m»z»z y 10 š w. 1867 1948 m tree-ring width t (JAP1) s³ y 1877 1962 s³ y ƒ 0.91 ƒ. š 1943 1983 m tree-ring width t s³ y 1949 1993 w y ù y x w ƒ w. w ùy w ù 416 ª Œª Œ
w. w» w» w w»»ƒ w» y ƒ d. 4. w»z tree-ring width t (MON) 1820 1920»»z w»z w ƒ. 1824 1916 tree-ring width t (MON) 20 s³ y» w tree-ring width t (KOR) 20 s³ y ƒ 0.77 ùkû. 1863 1925 tree-ring width t 20 s³ y 20 s³ y ƒ š ƒ 0.76. mw w y yƒ yw ù» y m w»z y œ w» ƒ š ywš y» x w. ù w w p ù s w» xƒ d ƒ., 1960 z p p ù s x w w, x w ³e w ùkùš š x»ƒ š yp ƒ š w. w w y»»z y d w q. š x (1998) w»z, w» wz, w» wz, 34«, 3y, pp. 390-396., ³, œ (2001) w ù (Abies koreana W.) w -»z y -. w kwz, w kwz, 24«, 5y, pp. 281-288.» (2004)»z yx»z ù» (III),» š, MR040C03, pp. 510. ½»,, ³, ½x (2007) w d» sƒ, w wz, w wz, 40«, 11y, pp. 851-859. ³, Yadav, R.R. (1998) ù w w 5 (A.D. 1731-1995), w» wz, w» wz, 34«, 3y, pp. 460-465., ½, (2000) ùkù w w x p w, w wz, w wz, 33«, 3y, pp. 307-314. (2000) ùkù»» x ƒ w š, w wz, w wz, 33«, 5y, pp. 519-526., (2003) ƒ x p, w wz, w wz, 36«, 4y, pp. 561-573. (1970) w» Normality w, w» wz, w» wz, 5«, pp. 11-14., «(1997), 1770-1907, w» wz, w» wz, 30«, 4y, pp. 487-505., «(1997) d», w» wz, w» wz, 33«, 4y, pp. 691-707. x (1999) ùkù w, w, w, pp. 9-118. x, ³y, y(1999) ù kù w, w» wz, w» wz, 35 «, 3y, pp. 354-371. û,, ³(1992) w e» w š»z, w 4»wz, w 4»wz, 6«, 1y, pp. 21-32. Arakawa, H. (1956) On the secular variation of annual total of rainfall at Seoul from 1770 to 1944. Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics, and Bioclimatology, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 205-211. Kim, J.W. and Ha, K.J. (1987) Climate changes and international fluctuations in the monthly amounts of precipitation at Seoul. Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, pp. 54-69. Kang, I.S. and Jeong, Y.K. (1996) Association of interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in Seoul with principal models of Pacific SST. Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 339-345. Lim, G.H. and Jung, H.S. (1992) Interannual variation of the annual precipitations at Seoul, 1771-1990. Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, pp. 125-132. National Climatic Data Center, www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html. ( : 2009.4.1/ : 2009.5.26/ : 2009.7.23) 29ƒ 5B 2009 9œ 417