Ph.D, FRM, ick_chan_joo@lycos.co.kr IBK Economic Research Institute 1
1. 2. : ( ) ( ) 3. : 4. 5. & ( ) 6. 7. GDP :, 8.
1., 2004 10,222,000 bpd(barrel / day). 13.1%..,. OPEC 25 2,058,000 bpd, 20%, OPEC.,., (, ). 2.5%. 25, 1970., 4.3% ( IMF ), 2005, 2006, 2007 20.0%, 23.5%, 25.5%. 2007 WTI 78$.,,,,. 7
1.,.,,.,,,. GDP 10$, GDP 1.04%p, 1.48%p. 8
2. Three Aspects of Oil Price Determinants : : 9
2. : ( Energy Intelligence Group ) GDP Oil Demand 6.0% World real GDP EIG : oil demand 6.0% EIG : oil demand 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% y = 1.0209x - 0.0189 R 2 = 0.4082 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1997.1Q 1998.3Q 2000.1Q 2001.3Q 2003.1Q 2004.3Q -1.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% World real GDP -2.0% 10
2. : (oil demand,, GDP ) 1Q~2Q ( ) 2.5%, Oil Price vs. Oil Demand 140.0% WTI 6.0% 80% y = 15.687x - 0.4055 R 2 = 0.4576 120.0% 100.0% 5.0% 60% 80.0% 40% 4.0% 60.0% 20% 40.0% 3.0% 20.0% 0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% -20% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% -20.0% 1997.1Q 1999.1Q 2001.1Q 2003.1Q 2005.1Q 1.0% -40% -40.0% World GDP -60.0% 0.0% -60% 11
2. : : Oil Prices and OPEC Excess Production Capacity 80 70 60 $/bbl 1000 bpd WTI OPEC Excess Capacity - 1,000 2,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 OPEC Excess Capacity 1000 bbl/day y = -85.576x + 6533.1 R 2 = 0.3404 50 3,000 5,000 40 4,000 4,000 30 5,000 3,000 20 6,000 2,000 10 7,000 1,000 $/bbl WTI 0 1997-01 1999-01 2001-01 2003-01 2005-01 2007-01 8,000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 12
2. : : Oil price and OPEC Excess Production Capacity(YoY) 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 1997.1Q1998.3Q2000.1Q2001.3Q2003.1Q2004.3Q -40% -60% WTI OPEC Excess Capacity 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0% -100.0% y = -0.7514x + 0.1276 R 2 = 0.3864-50.0% -20.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 13
2. : : Oil Production 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 1997.1Q 1999.1Q 2001.1Q 2003.1Q 2005.1Q 2007.1Q -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% World real GDP EIG : crude production 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% y = 1.7848x - 0.0477 R 2 = 0.5525-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 14
2. : : Oil Price & (demand-production) WTI demand-production 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% 1997.1Q 1999.1Q 2001.1Q 2003.1Q 2005.1Q -40.0% -60.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 0.06 0.04 0.02 0-50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% -0.02-0.04-0.06 y = 0.0441x - 0.0066 R 2 = 0.451 15
3. : 4.3% (IMF) 3, ( ), ( - ), 2005, 2006, 2007 20.0%, 23.5%, 25.5%., 2007 WTI 78$/bbl Oil price forecast ( WTI based ) 100 90 $/bbl 80 WTI 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-2000.1Q 2001.3Q 2003.1Q 2004.3Q 2006.1Q 2007.3Q 16
3. : (US Depart. Of Energy) - US DOE, 2005 3, 2005 5. - US DOE WTI price forecast US DOE gasoline price forecast 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 US DOE Short Term Outlook WTI Crude Oil Price $/bbl 2005-06-30 2005-05-31 2005-04-30 2005-03-31 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 US DOE Short Term Outlook Motor Gasoline Price Cent/Gal 2005-06-30 2005-05-31 2005-04-30 2005-03-31 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 5 9 1 5 9 5 9 1 5 9 17
3. : - 2005 6 2005 5. - 2005 Oil Futures 65.0 60.0 $/bbl OIL FUTURE 55.0 50.0 05-06-30 45.0 05-05-31 05-04-29 40.0 2005-07 2005-09 2005-11 2006-01 2006-03 2006-05 18
4. : Oil Stocks Oil Stocks 60.0 50.0 WTI US DOE SPR 1000 750,000 700,000 750,000 700,000 US DOE SPR 40.0 650,000 650,000 30.0 600,000 550,000 600,000 550,000 20.0 10.0 500,000 450,000 500,000 450,000 y = 2871.4x + 515408 R 2 = 0.5479 WTI 0.0 400,000 400,000 1994.1Q1996.1Q1998.1Q2000.1Q2002.1Q2004.1Q 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 19
4. : Oil Stocks Oil Stocks 60.0 50.0 40.0 WTI API Stock : crude oil 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 API Stock : crude oil 30.0 200,000 200,000 20.0 10.0 1000 bbl 150,000 100,000 50,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 y = -1110.9x + 337020 R 2 = 0.3174 WTI 0.0 1994.1Q1996.1Q1998.1Q2000.1Q2002.1Q2004.1Q 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20
4. : Finding Cost per bbl 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 Finding and dev elopment costs $/boe BP 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0-1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 21
4. : Net Income per bbl 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 Net income $/boe BP Maximum Minimum 4.0 2.0-1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 22
4. : Refinery capacities Refinery operating rate 160% 140% 120% 100% Ref inery Capacity / Oil Production 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% ref inery 80% 75% 60% 70% 40% 20% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 65% 60% USA China 55% Japan TOTAL WORLD 50% 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 23
4. :., 8, 4 2004 36% 2008 Oil Consumption of China 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% China Total Asia Pacif ic TOTAL WORLD 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004-4.0% 24
5. & Real & Nominal Oil Price 100.0 90.0 $/bbl 80.0 70.0 60.0 nominal $/bbl real $/bbl 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 25
6. -,,,,,, Impact of oil price increase on Industries ( Highly Impacted ), 3.1% 19.4% 3.6% 6.2%, 1.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% ; 0.4% 0.7% ; 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 1 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% ; 0.1% 0.1%, 0.1% 0.1% 26
6. -,,,, Impact of oil price increase on Industries ( Not Impacted ) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%, 0.0% 0.0%,, 0.0% 0.0%,, 0.0% 0.0% 27
6. - :,, - :,, Impact of oil price increase on Industries 25% 20% 15% OP Margin WTI WTI. $/bbl 60 50 40 20% 15% 10% OP Margin WTI WTI. $/bbl 60 50 40 10% 30 30 5% 20 5% 20 0% 10 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 3 9 3 9 3 9 3 9 3-5% - 0% 10 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 3 9 3 9 3 9 3 9 3-5% - 28
7. GDP : GDP 2, GDP 4. 3. 10$/bbl,, GDP 1.3% ( 0.3%, 0.3%) Oil Consumption / GDP Oil Import / GDP 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 Oil: Consumption/GDP 1000 bpd/billion US$ 2002-12-31 2003-12-31 2004-12-31 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 net import/gdp 1000 bpd/billion US$ 2002-12-31 2003-12-31 2004-12-31 1.50 1.50 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 - - US Japan China Korea US Japan China Korea 29
7. GDP :,, (WTI) 66% 10$/bbl 6.6$/bbl 10$/bbl GDP 0.86%. Oil Prices vs. Import Prices 60 50 40 $/bbl WTI Korea crude oil import price. FOB 50 45 40 35 Korea crude oil import price. FOB 30 30 25 20 20 10-1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 15 10 5 0 y = 0.6602x + 6.7239 R 2 = 0.9442 WTI 1 1 1 1 1 1-20 40 60 30
7. GDP : 10$ OECD GDP 0.4%p Impact of oil price increase on OECD GDP 2004 2005 GDP %p -0.4-0.4 Consumer price index %p 0.5 0.6 Unemployment rate %p 0.1 0.1 Current account ($billion) -32-42 31
7. GDP : OECD GDP OECD GDP 0.4%p, 3.1%p OECD GDP & Korean Export 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 % OECD Total GDP YoY South Korea Exports YoY % 50 40 30 20 50 40 30 20 South Korea Exports y = 7.8203x - 13.235 R 2 = 0.3008 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1996-03 1997-03 1998-03 1999-03 2000-03 2001-03 2002-03 2003-03 2004-03 10 0-10 -20-30 10 0-10 -20-30 0 1 2 3 4 5 OECD Total GDP YoY 32
7. GDP : 3.1%p 3.5%p 78 $, 64 $. 14 $ GDP 0.18%. 10$ GDP 0.18%p Korean Export & Import 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1992-20% 1-30% -40% -50% South Korea Exports YoY South Korea Imports ex crude oil. YoY 1995 1 1998 1 2001 1 2004 1 50% South Korea 40% Imports ex crude 30% oil. YoY 20% 10% 0% -40% -20% -10% 0% 20% 40% 60% -20% South Korea Exports -30% YoY -40% y = 1.1182x - 0.0229 R 2 = 0.6133-50% 33
8. 10$ GDP 1.04%p, 1.48%p Impact of oil price increase on Korean GDP Impact of oil price increase on Asian Countries Real GDP (%p) GDP (A) -0.86%p -1.30 %p Asia -0.8 China -0.8 (B) -0.18 %p -0.18 %p India -1.0 Malaysia -0.4 10$/bbl GDP (=A+B) -1.04%p -1.48 %p Philippines -1.6 Thailand -1.8 34
Appendix : -,,,,,, Impact of oil price increase on Industries ( Highly Impacted ) 1000 bbl A B C D E=A*10$/bbl F=E/C G=E/D, 107,876.9 39,985,122 34,434,085 5,551,037 1,078,769 3.1% 19.4% 141,115.6 61,918,029 39,010,551 22,907,478 1,411,156 3.6% 6.2%, 8,853.8 13,299,049 8,352,220 4,946,829 88,538 1.1% 1.8% 8,051.4 18,251,623 9,291,431 8,960,192 80,514 0.9% 0.9% ; 841.5 3,256,721 2,018,764 1,237,957 8,415 0.4% 0.7% ; 5,496.7 23,667,710 14,327,530 9,340,180 54,967 0.4% 0.6% 6,287.9 40,712,296 24,811,352 15,900,944 62,879 0.3% 0.4% 1 5,829.8 45,919,237 31,003,965 14,915,272 58,298 0.2% 0.4% 70.9 899,377 601,680 297,697 709 0.1% 0.2% 1,905.6 22,022,348 13,130,650 8,891,698 19,056 0.1% 0.2% ; 1,330.8 20,933,719 11,981,139 8,952,580 13,308 0.1% 0.1%, 329.2 5,935,100 3,624,206 2,310,894 3,292 0.1% 0.1% 35
Appendix : -,,,, Impact of oil price increase on Industries ( Not Impacted ) 1000 bbl A B C D E=A*10$/bbl F=E/C G=E/D 343.6 21,132,121 13,347,005 7,785,116 3,436 0.0% 0.0% 156.0 8,874,841 5,127,116 3,747,725 1,560 0.0% 0.0% 138.5 11,114,563 6,172,528 4,942,035 1,385 0.0% 0.0% 260.3 23,248,169 13,744,474 9,503,695 2,603 0.0% 0.0% 417.8 38,369,862 22,903,740 15,466,122 4,178 0.0% 0.0% 61.7 8,884,295 6,050,432 2,833,863 617 0.0% 0.0% 51.0 3,700,713 1,278,208 2,422,505 510 0.0% 0.0% 483.0 62,976,847 38,331,591 24,645,256 4,830 0.0% 0.0%, 109.8 10,184,605 4,575,556 5,609,049 1,098 0.0% 0.0%,, 34.7 5,242,708 2,789,595 2,453,113 347 0.0% 0.0%,, 247.7 93,368,584 55,053,314 38,315,270 2,477 0.0% 0.0% 36
Thank you 37