Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society Vol. 17, No. 1 pp. 374-388, 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/kais.2016.17.1.374 ISSN 1975-4701 / eissn 2288-4688 산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - 오재환 1, 황경수 1*, 김경범 1, 양정철 1 1 제주대학교행정학과 The traffic accident factors and reduction method in the hazard zone of mountain sightseeing roads -focused on Jeju local roads- Jae-Hwan Oh 1, Kyung-Soo Hwang 1*, Kyung-Bum Kim 1, Jeong-Cheol Yang 1 1 Department of Public Administration, Jeju National University 요약본제주도산악관광도로를대표하는교통사고가잦은지방도 1100 도로, 516 도로, 비자림로를중심으로교통사고를유형별로구분하여사고특성을분석하고, 통행 AHP 분석을통해주요사고요인을분석하고지점속도의분포와교통사고에영향을미치는요인들을비교분석하였다. 도로특성상관광객이통행이많고, 렌트카의혼합율이 1100 도로및비자림로는 36.70% 71.60% 로분석되었으며, 현재조사대상지방도는 60km/h 의제한속도로규제하고있으나, 도로선형및기후, 경관등의운전자시거를고려할경우제한속도를 40km/h 로규제할필요성이있으며, 조사대상지방도의 40km/h 이상과속비율이 516 도로는 87.0%, 1100 도로는 88.57%, 비자림로는 93.1% 로분석되어과속의비율이높은것으로분석되었으며, 과속에따른사고위험에노출되어있는것으로분석되었다. 516 도로, 1100 도로, 비자림로의과속비율이 87.0% 93.1% 로무인과속단속시스템은한지점의속도만으로과속을단속하는시스템으로단속지점에서만속도를줄이는캥거루효과가발생하고있어연속적인속도감소효과를기대할수없다. 따라서제주도의도로특성상연속적인위험이존재하는도로구간에서는교통사고예방을위해서는위험구간의평균속도로과속차량을단속하는무인구간속도위반단속시스템도입이필요하다. Abstract In Jeju-Do, there is the 1100, 516, and Bijarimro, which are typical mountain sight-seeing roads in Jeju. These roads are local roads that have been the location for many traffic. This study focused on these roads, categorized the type of traffic accident and analyzed the accident characteristics. The major accident factors were analyzed through trip AHP analysis, Comparative analysis of the velocity distribution and the factors affecting traffic were analyzed. Tourists took many trips on these roads. The mixing rate of the rental cars was 36.70%~71.60% in 1100 road and Bijarimro. Currently, these local roads are regulated by a speed limit of 60km/h. However, it might be necessary to reduce the speed limit to 40km/h considering the geometric line form of the road and the climate in these areas. The speed limit of more than 40km/h is found 87.0% on 516 s, 88.57% on 1100 roads, and 93.1% on Bjarimro, In these roads, the speed ratio is higher as described above. Therefore, these roads have been found to have a higher risk of traffic by overspeeding driving. The overspeed driving ratio of these roads was 87.0%~93.1%, The overspeed driving enforcement method at one spot has only the effect of reducing the speed at that enforcement place; the effect cannot be expected for the other places or sections. It is necessary to introduce a section overspeed driving enforcement system utilizing the average velocity in these areas to prevent traffic. Keywords : 1100, 516, Bijarimro, mountain sight-seeing roads, Traffic accident characteristics, the rate of overspeed 이논문은 2015학년도제주대학교학술진흥연구비지원사업에의하여연구되었음. * Corresponding Author : Kyung-Soo Hwang(Jeju National Univ.) Tel: +82-64-754-2971 email: kshwang@jejunu.ac.kr Received November 24, 2015 Accepted January 5, 2016 Revised (1st December 28, 2015, 2nd January 4, 2016) Published January 31, 2016 374
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - 1. 서론 1.1 연구의배경및목적제주특별자치도인구는해마다인구유입이증가하여 2014년제주특별자치도주민등록인구는전년대비약 2.8% 증가하여 62만명을초과하였다. 게다가제주도를방문하는관광객은 2013년 1천만명에서 2014년에는 1 천2백만명으로증가하였다. 그리고제주지역의교통사고건수는 2012년 3,869건에서 2013년에는 4,302건, 2014년에는 4,484건으로증가하였다. 이와같이제주지역의인구와관광객의증가는자동차의증가를가져왔고, 자동차증가는교통사고의증대를가져왔다고할수있다. 게다가제주지역의렌트카에의한교통사고발생건수를보면 2012년에는 334건 2013년에 394건그리고 2014년에는 393건으로제주지역교통사고의약 9% 정도를차지하고있다. 그리고 2013년의경우에는전체교통사고사망자수가 107명인데비하여렌트카에의한교통사고사망자수가 14명으로약 13% 에달하고있다. 이와같이제주지역의렌트카를포함한교통사고발생건수의증가는제주지역의안전을위협하는요인이되고있고, 더나아가서는안전성이떨어지는지역으로관광객들의방문이감소할소지가있을뿐만아니라제주도민의안전을위협할수도있다. 이와같은교통사고의위험을감소시키기위하여많은노력들이수행되어왔는데, 그중에서도과거에는주로교차로교통사고를중심으로하여수행되어왔으며, 이러한연구들을차차가로구간에대한교통사고연구로확대되어왔고, 그리고최근국내에서는신호교차로와비교하여지체감소, 용량및안정성증가등의운영효과를가진회전교차로의안정성에대한연구들이진행되고있으며, 게다가첨단정보통신기술을활용한소프트웨어적인접근을통하여교통사고와교통환경을개선하는수단으로활용하고있기도하다 [1][2]. 이와같이교차로와가로구간의안정성향상과교통사고감소를위한연구들이진행되어왔지만, 지역적인특성이반영된교통안전대책에연구는다소미비한실정이다. 따라서본연구에서는제주도의산간도로등지인근에서의지형적특성상의도로구배, 곡선부등과회전교차로의용량및운영효과분석은아직까지미비한실정이다. 특히제주도전지역이관광지라는특성을가지고있 어타지여과는달리제주도에서는렌트카교통안전에관한대책도중요할것으로판단된다. 따라서본연구에서는제주지역도로의안전성향상및교통사고를줄이기위하여우선적으로제주지역의교통사고에영향을미치는요인들을파악하고, 교통사고잦은곳을선정하여그지역들의교통사고주요요인과해당지점에서의의지점속도간의관계, 그리고지점속도가교통사고에미치는영향과그에따른개선방안을도출하고자하였다. 본연구에서는제주도관광도로를대표하는교통사고가잦은지방도 1100도로, 516도로, 비자림로를중심으로교통사고를유형별로구분하여사고특성을분석하고, 사고특성과지점속도와의상호관계를고려하여사고요인및개선방안을수립하는데그목적을두고있다. 또한사고요인별분석을통행 AHP 분석을통해주요요인을분석하고지점속도감속에따른교통사고에영향을미치는요인들을비교분석하고자한다. 또한지점속도개선시제주특별자치도도로조건, 환경조건등고려한교통사고감소등개선효과도분석하고자한다. 1.2 연구의방법일반적으로교통사고는단독에의해서발생할수도있지만대부분의경우여러가지인자들이복합적으로작용하여발생하는경우가많아그원인과결과를명확히규명하는것은쉽지않다. 본연구에서는제주도의지방도 1100도로 ( 지방도 1139 호 ), 516도로 ( 지방도 1131호 ), 비자림로 ( 지방도 1112호 ) 를대상으로교통사고발생에있어여러인자들의복합적인작용을알아보기위해속도자료를분석하였으며, 최근 3년간대상도로의교통사고를지점별로분석하고교통사고발생건수가 5건이상인지점에대하여교통유형별로구분하여유형별특성을분석하였다. 교통사고특성의유형은크게 3개의 Category로구분하여사고관련특성, 도로및기하구조조건, 차종조건으로구분하여특성을분석하였으며, 교통사고잦은지점은유형별로사고관련특성을사고건수, 사망자, 부상자로구분하였으며, 도로조건은도로및기하구조조건, 환경조건, 지점속도조건으로구분하였고, 차종조건은승용차, 렌트카, 대형차로구분하여상관성을분석하였으며, 연구의방법론은다음과같다. 375
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 Fig. 1. The Flow Chart of This Research 2. 관련문헌검토 2.1 기존연구의고찰이호원외 5인 (2010.12) 는 97년전국 5개지방경찰청 32개지점에무인과속단속시스템의도입으로교통사고발생건수와사망자수를현저하게감소시키는효과를가져왔지만, 무인과속단속시스템은한지점의속도만으로과속을단속하는시스템으로단속지점에서만속도를줄이는캥거루효과가발생하고있어연속적인속도감소효과를기대할수없어, 교통사고예방을위해서는위험구간의평균속도로과속차량을단속하는무인구간속도위반단속시스템도입이필요하다고하였다. 무인구간속도위반단속시스템과무인과속단속시스템간의운전자특성중의하나인캥거류효과발생여부를파악한결과, 무인구간속도위반단속시스템에서는캥거루효과가발생하지않은반면에무인과속단속시스템에서는캥거루효과가발생하였으며, 캥거루효과에의한차량감속은약 400m 전방에서시작된다고하였다 [3]. 정용화외 (2014) 는도시고속도로에있어중상교통사고발생유무별영향요인에대해그영향정도를판별하는모델을구축하였으며, 특히과속사고의경우차량의주행속도가높아질수록정지거리가길어지므로운전자가위험상황을회피하는데필요한시간이길어져중상교통사고를야기할가능성이매우높아지며, 주행차량운전자의피해나부상정도또한심각해질확률이높아진다고하였다 [4]. 황상호 (2005) 는자동차의주행속도는교통사고발생 및그피해심각도에절대적인영향을미치고, 대부분의도로에서많은차량들이제한속도를초과하여주행하고있다는사실에서속도관리를통해교통사고를감소시킬수있으며, 속도관리의시책의하나인무인과속단속시스템확대설치는속도관리에상당한효과를거두고있지만, 무인단속카메라는설치된지점의전후방일정구간에만감속을유도하고있을뿐그외의다른구간에서는속도관리의어려움이있다고하였다 [5]. 조영태외 (2010) 는가변속도제한 (VSL) 을활용하여현재의도로상황에알맞게속도제한을조절하여도로의안전성과효율성을증대하는시스템으로, 기존에는대부분단일스테이션에서의 VSL 알고리즘연구에중점을두었지만, 도시고속도로와같이다수의스테이션이일정한간격으로설치되어있는환경에적용하기에는미흡한점이있다고하였다 [6]. 2.2 연구의차별성일반적으로차량의속도와사고와의관계는두가지관점에서설명된다. 첫째, 차량의속도가높아지면운전자가돌발상황에인지 반응하는시간보다차량이먼저위험에직면하게되어사고가발생한다. 둘째, 차량의속도가증가할수록충격력은속도의제곱에비례해서증가하기때문에속도가높을수록치명적인사고로이어질확률이높다. 일반적으로속도가 50km/h에서 60km/h로 10km/h가증가하면충격력은 1.6배, 20km/h가증가할때 2배, 속도가 100km/h로 2배가되면충격력은 4배로증가하게된다. 본연구에서는제주특별자치도의교통특성및도로운영특성을고려하여교통사고특성의유형은 3개의 Category 로구분하여사고관련특성, 도로및기하구조조건, 차종조건으로구분하여특성을분석하였으며, 제주특별자치도의 1100도로및비자림, 516도로교통사고잦은지점유형별특성은사고건수, 사망자, 부상자로구분하였다. 기존의연구대부분은고속국도와일반국도등을대상으로하여안전성증대방안을제시하고있지만본연구는기존연구들과는달리산악지역에서관광코스로이용되는지방도로, 즉산악관광도로를대상으로교통사고감소를통한안전성증대방안을제시하고있다. 또한기존의연구들은대부분이도로및기하구조조건만을다루거나, 속도단속지점에대해서만다루거나, 또는차종을승용차에한정하여연구하는경향이주를이루고있 376
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - 지만, 본연구에서는기존연구와는달리도로조건측면에서는도로및기하구조조건, 환경조건, 지점속도조건으로구분, 차종조건은승용차, 렌트카, 대형차로구분하여상관성을분석하였다. Table 1. Existing relative research with discrimination, Category The characteristics of Traffic Accidents site characteristics Raod Car type Contents - relative characteristics Traffic Accidents - characteristics - Car model - The number of - Dead persons & Wounded Persons - Conditions - Environmental conditions spot speed - passenger car, lental car, Truck etc Table 2. The characteristics of Traffic Accidents The number of Dead persons Wounded Persons 2010 3,617 101 5,374 2011 3,459 106 5,108 2012 3,869 92 5,726 2013 4,302 107 6,415 2014 4,484 92 6,656 Growth(%) 5.52-2.31 5.49 최근 5년간제주특별자치도의도로종류별발생건수는지방도 2010년 2230건에서 2014년 4103건으로전체발생건수중 91.5% 의건수가지방도에서발생하고있다. 3. 본론분석범위및자료수집에서는제주특별자치도일반적인사고특성분석, 제주특별자치도의대표적인한라산횡단도로및경관도로인 1100도로, 516도로, 비자림로를대상으로선정하였다. 대상도로의교통사고는교통량, 속도, 기하구조등의변수가일반적으로적용되고있지만, 본연구에는 3개의 Category로구분하여사고관련특성, 도로및기하구조조건, 차종조건으로구분하여특성을분석하였다. 지방도 1100도로, 516도로, 비자림로를대상으로교통사고발생에있어여러인자들의복합적작용을알아보기위해미시적분석의일환으로영향요인의영향정도를판별할수있는모델을구축하고자한다. 최근 3년간대상도로의교통사고를지점별로분석하고교통사고 5건이상인지점에대하여교통특성을구분하여유형별특성을분석하였다. 3.1 제주특별자치도교통사고일반특성제주지역은도시와비도시지역이함께상존하며통행이이루어지며 [7], 또한관광지라는특성을갖고있기때문에다른지역의교통사고와는다른측면이있다. 최근 5년간제주특별자치도의교통사고특성을살펴보면발생건수는 2014년 4,484건으로연평균증가율 5.5% 로증가하고있으며, 사망자수는 2014년 92명으로 -2.31% 의감소로분석되었으며, 부상자수증가율은 5.49% 로분석되었다. Table 3. The traffic Accident characteristics by road type Sum National Highway Local City and county road 2010 3,617 92 2,230 1,239 56 2011 3,459 7 3,138 277 37 2012 3,869 1 3,531 249 88 2013 4,302 0 3,839 291 172 2014 4,484 0 4,103 193 188 ratio(%) 100 0 91.5 4.3 4.2 최근 5년간제주특별자치도의도로종류별사망자수중에서지방도의경우는 2010년 79명에서 2014년 89명으로전체사망자수중 96.74% 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. Table 4. The numbers of deaths by traffic Sum National Highway Local City and county road 2010 101 4 79 17 1 2011 106 0 97 9 0 2012 92 0 84 7 1 2013 107 0 98 7 2 2014 92 0 89 3 0 ratio(%) 100 0 96.74 3.26 0.00 최근 5년간제주특별자치도의도로종류별부상자수는지방도 2010년 3304명에서 2014년 6131명으로전체부상자수중 92.1% 를차지하는것으로분석되었다. Etc Etc 377
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 Table 5. The wounded numbers by traffic Sum National Highway Local City and county road 2010 5,374 176 3,304 1,827 67 2011 5,108 10 4,639 406 53 2012 5,726 2 5,262 365 97 2013 6,415 0 5,792 416 207 2014 6,656 0 6,131 298 227 ratio(%) 100 0 92.1 4.5 3.4 최근 5년간제주특별자치도의교통사고특성을살펴보면대부분이지방도에서발생하고있으며, 지방도의교통사고발생건수는제주특별자치도전체의 91.5%, 사망자는 92.1%, 부상자는 96.7% 로분석되었으며, 매년지방도의사고건수의비율은증가하고있는것으로분석되었다. Table 6. The traffic Accident characteristics by the lental car 10 11 12 13 14 whole The number country 4,169 4,492 5,398 5,340 5,639 of Jeju 233 237 334 394 393 Occupancy 5.6 5.3 6.2 7.4 7.0 Dead persons Etc whole country 77 92 91 106 91 Jeju 6 9 9 14 3 Occupancy 7.8 9.8 9.9 13.2 3.3 출처 : 도로교통공단교통사고통계 최근 5년간제주지역의렌트카교통사고특성을살펴보면제주도의인구수는 2014년말 62만명을넘어서고있으며우리나라인구수의약 1% 정도를차지하고있는반면에사고발생건수에있어서는전국대비약 5.3%~7.4% 를차지하고있으며, 렌트카교통사고사망자비중에있어서도최근 2014년도사망자비율은감소하였지만 2010년부터 2013년까지 7.8%~13.2% 를차지하고있어교통사고발생건수와사망자수가상당히높게나타나고있다. 3.2 제주지역지방도의교통사고특성분석 3.2.1 516도로교통사고특성분석 516도로의교통사고특성을살펴보면최근 3년간교통사고증가율은 28.45% 로계속적인증가추세를보이고있으며, 목요일이전체의 18.5% 을차지하며, 차대차사고가전체의 69.5% 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. 516도로에서안전운전불이행교통사고가전체의 43.7%m, 도로선형으로인한중앙선침법이 32.5% 차지하며, 이상기후시보다맑은날이전체의 58.3%, 차종의특성은승용차 45.7%, 화물차 25.8%, 렌트카 11.3% 을차지하며, 연령대별로는 40대가 22.5%, 60대이상이 17.2% 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. Table 7. The traffic accident characteristics of 516 road contents Characteristic year 2011 : 40 The number of The rate of increase year 2012 : 45 : 28.45% year 2013 : 66 Day of the week Characteristics of traffic Type of accident Traffic violations weather Vehicle Accident Ages Sun : 19 Mon : 18 Tues : 22 Wed : 22 Thur : 28 Fri : 23 Sat : 19 The deaths : 8 The seriously wounded : 101 The slighty wounded : :178 between two cars : 105 Cars and people traffic accident : 12 only car : 34 Thur : 18.5% The slighty wounded between two cars : 69.5% default safe driving duty : 66 default safe driving violation of central line : 49 duty : 43.7% Did t assure aj sate distance : 13 violation of central Etc : 23 line : 32.5% Snow : 11 Rainy : 38 Fog : 2 Sunny : 58.3% Cloudy : 12, Sunny : 88 Car : 69 Rental car : 17 Truck : 39 Taxi : 13 Motorcycle : 11 Etc : 3 40s : 34 30s : 29 more than 60s : 26 Car :45.7% Truck :25.8% 40s : 22.5% more than 60s :17.2% 3.2.2 1100 도로교통사고특성분석 1100도로의교통사고특성을살펴보면최근 3년간교통사고는 -6.9% 로감소하고있으며, 일요일이전체의 26.3% 을차지하며주말이교통사고가전체의 47.4% 을차지하며, 차량단독사고가전체의 50.0% 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. 1100도로에서안전운전불이행교통사고가전체의 78.9%, 이상기후시보다맑은날이전체의 55.3%, 차종의특성은승용차 36.8% 연령대별로는 40대가 26.3% 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. 378
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - Table 8. The traffic accident characteristics of 1100 road contents Characteristic The number of Day of the week Characteristics of traffic Type of accident Traffic violations weather Vehicle Accident Ages Table 9. The traffic accident characteristics of Bijarim road contents Characteristic The number of year 2011 : 15 year 2012 : 10 year 2013 : 13 Sun : 10 Mon : 5 Tues : 5 Wed : 4 Thur : 4 Fri : 2 Sat : 8 The deaths : 1 The seriously wounded : 32 The slighty wounded : :46 year 2011 : 11 year 2012 : 10 year 2013 : 22 The rate of increase : -6.9% Sun : 26.3% Holiday : 47.4% The slighty wounded between two cars : 18 Cars and people traffic accident : 1 only car : 50.0% only car : 38 default safe driving duty : 30 violation of central line : 5 Did t assure aj sate distance : 3 Snow : 9 Rainy : 4 Fog : 1 Cloudy : 3 Sunny : 21 Car : 14 Rental car : 6 Truck : 7 Motorcycle : 6 Etc : 5 40s : 10 30s : 10 20s : 10 default safe driving duty : 78.9% Sunny : 55.3% Car : 36.8% 40s : 26.3% 3.2.3 비자림로교통사고특성분석바자림로의교통사고특성을살펴보면최근 3년간교통사고증가율은 48.3% 로 2013년크게증가하였으며, 월요일이전체의 22.9% 을차지하며, 차대차사고가전체의 62.5% 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. 비자림로에서안전불이행교통사고가전체의 66.7%, 이상기후시보다맑은날이전체의 77.1%, 차종의특성은렌트카가 41.7% 를차지하며, 연령대별로는 20대가 29.2%, 30 대가 22.8 을차지하는것으로분석되었다. The rate of increase : 48.3% Day of the week Characteristics of traffic Type of accident Traffic violations weather Vehicle Accident Ages Sun : 6 Mon : 11 Tues : 8 Wed : 5 Thur : 4 Fri : 6 Sat : 8 The deaths : 5 The seriously wounded : 34 The slighty wounded : :46 between two cars : 30 Cars and people traffic accident : 2 only car : 16 default safe driving duty : 32 violation of central line : 13 Etc : 3 Snow : 5 Rainy : 4 Cloudy : 2 Sunny : 37 Car : 12 Rental car : 20 Truck : 9 Taxi & Bus : 4 Motorcycle : 3 more than 60s : 4 50s : 6 40s : 10 30s : 11 20s : 14 10s : 2 3.3 제주지역지방도속도특성분석 3.3.1 516 도로속도분석 Mabang Pasture Seongpanak Mon : 22.9% The slighty wounded between two cars : 62.5% default safe driving duty : 66.7% violation of central line : 27.0% Sunny : 77.1% Rental car : 41.7% 20s : 29.2% 30s : 22.8% 516 도로의속도조사지점은총 4 개소를조사하였으며, 마방목장은평균속도 57.03km/h, 성판악 40.33km/h, 수악교 58.15km/h, 남서교 55.78km/h로분석되었다. 조사지점을통과하는속도의차이가클수록사고가많이발생하며, 분산값이큰마방목장및남서교에서교통사고가많은것으로분석되었다. Table 10. The velocity analyses of 516 road Suouch Bridges Namsa Bridges The number of 7 17 4 7 Death numbers 0 0 0 1 Defamation numbers 3 11 3 6 Minor numbers 8 23 2 4 weather cloudy fog sunny sunny Linear geometry and conditions straight line the front and the rear curve Curve parked on both sides of the street Curve straight line the front and the rear curve 379
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 Research Traffic volume 324 171 252 229 truck and bus mixing rate 15.1% 12.3% 10.3% 10.9% Car Rental mixing rate 16.7% 19.3% 19.4% 14.8% Average 57.03 40.33 58.15 55.78 Standard error 0.53 0.59 0.53 0.66 Median 57.00 40.00 58.00 56.00 The most frequent number of values 50.00 42.00 60.00 48.00 Standard Deviation 9.46 7.67 8.44 10.05 Dispersion 89.50 58.83 71.20 101.09 kurtosis -0.50 0.64 0.60-0.10 Skewness 0.20 0.41-0.14 0.07 range 50.00 45.00 50.00 53.00 The minimum value 34.00 19.00 31.00 32.00 The maximum value 84.00 64.00 81.00 85.00 Fig. 5. The velocity analysis of Namseokyo 3.3.2 1100 도로속도분석 1100도로의속도조사지점은총 3개소를조사하였으며, 어리목입구의평균속도는 49.39km/h, 1100고지휴게소는 56.93km/h, 탐라대학교앞 53.71km/h로분석되었다. 조사지점을통과하는속도차가클수록사고가많이발생하며, 분산값이 1100고지휴게소에서교통사고가많은것으로분석되었다. Fig. 2. The velocity analysis of Mabang Pasture Fig. 3. The velocity analysis of Seongpanak Fig. 4. The velocity analysis of Sooackyo Table 11. The velocity analyses of 1100 road Entrance Eorimok 1100 Rest Place Tamra University The number of 4 3 5 Death numbers 1 0 0 Defamation numbers 8 4 1 Minor numbers 3 0 7 weather sunny sunny sunny Linear geometry and conditions Research Traffic volume truck and bus mixing rate Curve straight line the front and the rear curve Curve 84 55 53 10.7% 14.5% 26.4% Car Rental mixing rate 41.7% 41.3% 71.6% Average 49.39 56.93 53.71 Standard error 1.09 1.43 0.97 Median 48.00 56.00 53.00 The most frequent number of values 43.00 56.00 48.00 Standard Deviation 9.96 10.62 9.86 Dispersion 99.25 112.85 97.22 kurtosis 0.07-0.65-0.11 Skewness 0.40 0.00-0.06 range 49.00 45.00 45.00 The minimum value 27.00 34.00 31.00 The maximum value 76.00 79.00 76.00 380
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - Fig. 6. The velocity analysis of Entrance Eorimok Research Traffic volume 229 133 truck and bus mixing rate 13.9% 17.3% Car Rental mixing rate 36.7% 48.9% Average 52.24 57.18 Standard error 0.56 0.73 Median 52.00 57.00 The most frequent number of values 52.00 57.00 Standard Deviation 8.46 8.39 Dispersion 71.49 70.36 kurtosis 0.33 0.58 Skewness 0.12 0.17 range 47.00 49.00 The minimum value 33.00 34.00 The maximum value 80.00 83.00 Fig. 7. The velocity analysis of 1100 Rest Place Fig. 9. The velocity analysis of Saryeoni forest Fig. 8. The velocity analysis of Tamra University 3.3.3 비자림로속도분석 바자림로의속도조사지점은총 2개소를조사하였으며, 사려니숲길평균속도는 52.24km/h, 산굼부리는 57.18km/h 로분석되었다. Table 12. The velocity analyses of Bijarim road Ryeoni forest Sangumburi The number of 4 4 Death numbers 0 4 Defamation numbers 2 11 Minor numbers 2 5 weather Fog Fog Linear geometry and conditions straight line the front and the rear curve straight line the front and the rear curve Fig. 10. The Flow Chart of Sangumburi 3.4 지방도별과속위반비율분석 3.4.1 516도로과속위반비율 516도로는규제속도는 60km/h로지정되어있으며, 곡선부에서는 40km/h을안전속도로제안하고있으며, 대부분이도로선형이곡선으로형성되어실질안전규제속도는 40km/h로보는것이타당할것이다. 60km/h이상의과속비율은 29.6% 이며, 40km/h이상시과속비율은 87.0% 을차지하고있어실질적인과속의비율은 87.0% 로조사되었으며, 관광객의렌터카는처음접하는도로로도민이용차량보다는비율이조금낮은것으로조사되었다. 381
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 Table 13. The speeding violation ratio of 516 road Total Jeju Island tourist numbers More than 60km/h More than 40km/h numbers 976 289 849 Ration 100 29.6 87.0 numbers 806 243 704 Ration 100 30.1 87.3 numbers 170 46 145 Ration 100 27.1 85.3 Fig. 12. The overspeeding analysis of 1100 3.4.3 비자림로과속위반비율비자림로는규제속도는 60km/h로지정되어있으며, 도로선형이 516도로및 1100도로보다는직선으로계획되어있으며60km/h이상의과속비율은 19.6% 로분석되었다. Table 15. The speeding violation ratio of Bijarim road Fig. 11. The overspeeding analysis of 516 3.4.2 1100도로과속위반비율 1100도로는규제속도는 60km/h로지정되어있으며, 곡선부에서는 40km/h을안전속도로제안하고있으며, 대부분이도로선형이곡선으로형성되어실질안전규제속도는 40km/h로보는것이타당할것이다. Total Jeju Island tourist numbers More than 60km/h More than 40km/h numbers 362 71 337 Ration 100 19.6 93.1 numbers 213 47 202 Ration 100 22.1 94.8 numbers 149 24 135 Ration 100 16.1 90.6 Table 14. The speeding violation ratio of 1100 road Total Jeju Island tourist numbers More than 60km/h More than 40km/h numbers 243 57 214 Ration 100 23.5 88.1 numbers 144 38 125 Ration 100 26.4 86.8 numbers 99 19 89 Ration 100 19.2 89.9 60km/h이상의과속비율은 23.5% 이며, 40km/h이상시과속비율은 88.1% 을차지하고있어실질적인과속의비율은 88.1% 로조사되었으며, 관광객의렌터카는처음접하는도로로도민이용차량보다는비율이낮은것으로조사되었다. Fig. 13. The overspeeding analysis of Bijarim 3.5 AHP 분석결과 3.5.1 평가척도 (MOE) 의기본적인요구조건평가척도의의기본적인요구조건은다음과같다. 첫째, 평가척도의정의를통해사업목적에부합되어야한다. 둘째, 평가척도는궁극적으로전달하려는의미를전문지식없어도누구나쉅게이해할수있도록작성 382
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - 한다. 셋째, 평가척도가표현하려는내용은정량적으로수량화가가능해야한다. 넷째, 평가척도는현장조사, 설문조사, 모형을통한시뮬레이션등적합한방법을통해실제로측정가능해야한다는것이다. 다섯째, 평가척도는가능한관련된부분의효과를직접또는간접으로함께평가할수있어야한다. 3.5.2 평가척도개발 1차평가척도에서검토한내용을기준으로교통사고관련특성, 도로및기하구조, 차종조건에서각각의평가척도를통계자료, 평가지표의측정이가능한척도를기준으로 2차에서최종적으로제주도지방도사고특성을반영할수있는평가척도를검토하였다. (1) 사고관련특성지방도의사고관련특성에서는최종적으로사고건수, 사망자, 부상자를설정하였다. Table 16. The measure of Traffic Accident -related characteristics The number of Death numbers Wounded numbers for 3 years, rate of increase for 3 years, rate of increase for 3 years, rate of increase (2) 도로및기하구조특성지방도교통사고의도로기하구조에서최종적으로도로및기하구조, 환경조건, 지점속도를설정하였다. Table 17. The measure of road and geometry road and geometry road and geometry Environmental conditions Spot speed straight line & curve, uphill road & downhill road surroundings of a scene, secure a sight distance average spot velocity, minimun velocity & maximum velocity, range velocity, rate of velocity violation (3) 차종조건지방도교통사고의차종조건에서는최종적으로교통량조건, 렌트카혼합율, 대형차혼합율을설정하였다. Table 18. The measure of Vehicle conditions Vehicle conditions Traffic conditions hourly traffic Car Rental mixing rate mixing rate of rental car truck and bus mixing rate mixing rate of heavy vehicles 3.5.3 평가지표종합 제주도지방도 1100 도로, 516 도로, 비자림로의 AHP 분석을위한정량적평가지표는다음과같이설정하였다. 3.6 AHP 분석결과 3.6.1 항목간가중치 AHP 응답결과각항목에대하여평가한가중치는교통사고건수및사망자수, 중상및경상자수를대상으로기하구조조건 : 차종조건의중요도에대해서평가자 6명이모두기하구조조건측면분석결과가매우중요하다는의견을제시하였다. AHP 설문조사는교통전문가및도로교통공단종사자를대상으로설문조사를실시하였으며, 총 10인을대상으로설문조사한결과 4인의비일관도지수가 0.10을초과하여비일관도지수를검토하여최종적으로 6인의설문조사를반영하였다. 종합한결과, 제주도지방도특성을고려할경우기하구조조건 : 차량조전가중치는 73.0 : 27.0 으로연구진들은판단하고있는것으로분석되었다. 특히자종조건중과속위반이 23.0으로큰비중을차지하는것으로분석되었으며, 도로선형조건, 전후도로선형, 지점속도, 렌트카혼합율순으로가중치를부여한것으로분석되었다. 교통전문가및도로교통공단종사자비교한결과기하구조측면가중치를교통전문가가높게평가하였으며, 차량조건에대해서는도로교통종사자가높게평가하였다. 기하구조조건중교통전문가는과속위반비율을 0.254로높계평가하였으며, 도로교통종사자는도로선형, 과속위반비율을 0.205로평가하였다. 차량조건에서는교통전문가는렌트카혼합율을 0.138로높게평가한반면, 도로교통종사자는시간당교통량을 0.132로높게평가하였다. 제주특별자치도의교통사고요인분석은교통전문가와도로교통종사자는비슷한평가를하였으나, 기하구조조건및차량조건에세부항목에대해서는약간상이한것으로분석되었다. 383
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 Table 19. The Evaluation Indicator for AHP Analysis 5 1 6 r o a d 1 1 0 0 r o a d division Accident data Geometry Properties cars characteristics straight line the front and the rear curve surroundings of a scene: monticule, good Accident numbers : 7 average velocity: 57.03km/h The deaths : 0 Mabang Pasture minimum velocity: 34km/h Seongpanak Suouch Bridges Namsa Bridges Entrance Eorimok The seriously wounded : 3 The slighty wounded : 3 Accident numbers : 17 The deaths : 0 The seriously wounded :11 The slighty wounded : 23 Accident numbers :4 The deaths : 0 The seriously wounded: 3 The slighty wounded : 2 Accident numbers: 7 The deaths : 1 The seriously wounded : 6 The slighty wounded : 4 Accident numbers: 4 The deaths : 1 The seriously wounded : 8 The slighty wounded : 3 Accident numbers: 3 The deaths : 0 1100 Rest Place The seriously wounded : 4 The slighty wounded : 0 Accident numbers: 5 The deaths : 0 Tamra University The seriously wounded : 1 The slighty wounded : 7 maximum velocity 84km/h velocuty range: 50km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 29.6% more than 40km/h over velocity: 87.0% curve line parked on both sides of the street surroundings of a scene: good average velocity: 40.33km/h minimum velocity: 19km/h maximum velocity: 64km/h velocity range: 45km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 29.6% more than 40km/h over velocity: 87.0% curve surroundings of a scene: good average velocity: 58.15km/h minimum velocity: 31km/h maximum velocity: 81km/h velocity range: 50km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 29.6% more than 40km/h over velocity: 87.0% straight line the front and the rear curve surroundings of a scene: good average velocity: 55.78km/h minimum velocity: 32km/h maximum velocity: 85km/h velocity range: 53km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 29.6% more than 40km/h over velocity: 87.0% curve line surroundings of a scene: good average velocity: 49.39km/h minimum velocity: 27km/h maximum velocity: 76km/h velocity range: 49km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 23.5% more than 40km/h over velocity: 88.1% straight line the front and the rear curve surroundings of a scene: good verage velocity: 56.93km/h minimum velocity: 34km/h maximum velocity: 79km/h velocuty range: 45km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 23.5% more than 40km/h over velocity: 88.1% curve line surroundings of a scene: good average velocity: 53.71km/h minimum velocity: 31km/h maximum velocity: 76km/h velocuty range: 45km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 23.5% more than 40km/h over velocity: 88.1% 421v/h mixing rate of rental car 16.70% mixing rate of heavy vehicles 15.10% 256v/h mixing rate of rental car 19.30% mixing rate of heavy vehicles 12.30% 327v/h mixing rate of heavy vehicles 0.0% 297v/h mixing rate of rental car14.80% mixing rate of heavy vehicles 10.90% 327v/h mixing rate of rental car 41.70% mixing rate of heavy vehicles 10.70% 317v/h mixing rate of rental car: 41.30% mixing rate of heavy vehicles: 14.50% 297v/h mixing rate of rental car: 71.60% mixing rate of heavy vehicles : 26.40% 384
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - Saryeoni forest Sangumburi Accident numbers ::4 The deaths : 0 The seriously wounded : 2 The slighty wounded : 2 Accident numbers ::4 The deaths : 4 The seriously wounded : 11 The slighty wounded : :5 straight line the front and the rear curve surroundings of a scene: good a verage velocity: 52.24km/h minimum velocity: 33km/h maximum velocity: 80km/h v elocuty range: 47km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 19.6% more than 40km/h over velocity: 93.1% 299v/h mixing rate of rental: 36.70% rate of heavy vehicles : 13.90% straight line the front and the rear curve surroundings of a scene: good average velocity: 57.18km/h 215v/h minimum velocity: 34km/h mixing rate of rental: 48.90% maximum velocity: 83km/h mixing rate of heavy vehicles : 17.30% velocuty range: 49km/h more than 60km/h over velocity: 19.6% more than 40km/h over velocity: 93.1% Table 20. The result of Weight value Evaluation Item Compre Review Review Review Review Review Review hensive ed 1 ed 2 ed 3 ed 4 ed 5 ed 6 Geometry.73.776.725.75.702.7.724 Vehicle condition.27.224.275.25.298.3.276 Alignment.196.319.058.066.175.102.455 before and after.12.058.049.051.196.273.093 Geom Linear etry Environmental conditions.064.065.068.078.05.065.057 Spot speed.12.128.158.178.102.081.075 over speed ratio.23.206.392.377.179.179.044 Per hour Vehi Traffic.08.007.022.021.058 0.2.173 cle Rent Car cond mixing rate.108.152.098.058.205.052.084 ition truck and bus mixing rate.082.065.155.171.035.048.019 Table 21. The traffic engineer result of Weight value Evaluation Item Comprehensive Reviewed 1 Reviewed 2 Reviewed 3 Geometry 0.743 0.776 0.75 0.702 Vehicle condition 0.257 0.224 0.25 0.298 Alignment 0.187 0.319 0.066 0.175 before and after 0.102 0.058 0.051 0.196 Geom Linear etry Environment al conditions 0.064 0.065 0.078 0.05 Spot speed 0.136 0.128 0.178 0.102 over speed ratio 0.254 0.206 0.377 0.179 Per hour 0.029 0.007 0.021 0.058 Traffic Vehi Rent Car cle 0.138 0.152 0.058 0.205 mixing rate condi truck and tion bus mixing 0.090 0.065 0.171 0.035 rate Table 22. The transit authority workers result of Weight value Evaluation Item Comprehensive Reviewed 1 Reviewed 2 Reviewed 3 Geometry 0.716 0.725 0.7 0.724 Vehicle condition 0.284 0.275 0.3 0.276 Alignment 0.205 0.058 0.102 0.455 before and 0.138 0.049 0.273 0.093 Geo after Linear metry Environmental conditions 0.063 0.068 0.065 0.057 Spot speed 0.105 0.158 0.081 0.075 over speed ratio 0.205 0.392 0.179 0.044 Per hour 0.132 0.022 0.2 0.173 Traffic Vehi Rent Car cle 0.078 0.098 0.052 0.084 mixing rate condi truck and tion bus mixing 0.074 0.155 0.048 0.019 rate Fig. 14. The result of Weight value(the traffic engineer /The transit authority workers) 385
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 Fig. 15. The result of Geometry Weight value(the traffic engineer /The transit authority workers) Fig. 16. The result of Vehicle condition Weight value (The traffic engineer /The transit authority workers) 4. 결론 본연구에서는제주도의지방도 1100 도로, 516 도로, 비자림로를대상으로교통사고발생에있어여러인자들의복합적작용을알아보기위해속도자료를분석하였으며, 최근 3년간대상도로의교통사고을지점별로분석하고교통사고 5건이상인지점에대하여교통유형별로분석하여유형별특성을구분하였다. 교통사고특성의유형은 3개의 Category로구분하여사고관련특성, 도로및기하구조조건, 차종조건으로을구분하여특성을분석하였으며, 제주도의자연경관, 관광특성을고려한교통사고의주요요인분석을교통전문가및교통안전종사자를대상으로 AHP을분석하여주요요인을분석하였다. 본대상지인지방도 1100도로, 516도로, 비자림로는한라산을통과하는도로특성상기하구조상굴곡도가높고, 도로선형이불합리한도로의특성을가지고있으며, 교통사고가많은지점의속도조사결과대부분의평균지점속도는 40.33km/h 58.15km/h로분석되었다. 도로특성상관광객이통행이많으며, 렌트카의혼합율이 1100도로및비자림로는 36.70% 71.60% 로분석되었으며, 현재조사대상지방도는 60km/h의제한속도로규제하고있으나, 도로선형및기후, 경관등의운전자시거를고려할경우제한속도를 40km/h로규제할필요성이있으며, 조사대상지방도의 40km/h이상과속비율이 516도로는 87.0%, 1100도로는 88.57%, 비자림로는 93.1% 로분석되어과속의비율이높은것으로분석되었으며, 과속에따른사고위험에노출되어있는것으로분석되었다. 제주도의관광특성를고려한지방도의교통사고감소를위해서는다음과같이종합정리하였다. 첫째, 제주도의 516도로, 1100도로, 비자림로를대상으로속도조사결과 40km/h이상과속비율이 87.0% 93.1% 로과속을규제할수있는제도적장치가필요하다. 둘째, 한라산을횡단하는 516도로, 1100도로는한라산의수려한경관보호및문화제보호로도로선형변경, 도로신설등의어려움이있어실질적기하구조변경이어려움을고려할때 AHP 분석결과지점속도관리및과속관리의가중치가 35.0으로분석되어속도관리의중요성을알수있다. 셋째, 제주도의교통특성상지방도교통사고비율이 92.1% 로가장큰비중을차지하고있으며, 매년지방도의교통사고가증가추세이며, 향후제주관광객이 2013 1,000만명에서 2020년 1,600만명시지방도통행증가에따른교통사고는계속증가할것으로판단되어특히 1100도로, 516도로, 비자림로의교통사고감소대책이시급하다. 마지막으로제주도관광특성, 기하구조특성, 경관및환경적특성을고려할때지방도의교통사고감소정책적제안은다음과같다. 516도로, 1100도로, 비자림로의과속비율이 87.0% 93.1% 로무인과속단속시스템은한지점의속도만으로과속을단속하는시스템으로단속지점에서만속도를줄이는캥거루효과가발생하고있어연속적인속도감소효과를기대할수없다. 따라서제주도의도로특성상연속적인위험이존재하는도로구간에서는교통사고예방을위해서는위험구간의평균속도로과속차량을단속하는 386
산악관광도로위험구간의교통사고요인분석및감소방안 - 제주도의지방도를중심으로 - 무인구간속도위반단속시스템도입이필요하다. 다만 516도로및 1100도로는한라산정상을기점으로 2개구간의무인구간속도위반단속시스템이필요할것으로판단된다. Table 23. The method of Over speed enforcement mountain sightseeing road 516 1100 Bijarim road General local The method of Over speed enforcement Enforcement system based on the travel time speed Enforcement system based on the spot speed 오재환 (Jae-Hwan Oh) [ 정회원 ] < 관심분야 > 경찰행정, 교통행정, 도시행정 2007 년 2 월 ~ 현재 : 제주자치경찰단근무 2014 년 8 월 : 제주대학교행정학석사 2015 년 2 월 ~ 현재 : 제주대학교행정학과박사과정 References [1] K. B. Kim, K. S. Hwang, A Study on the effect of traffic information satisfaction and expansion by the attitude on traffic information media using the Structural Equation modeling, The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, vol.13, no.10, pp4453-4461, 2012 [2] J. W. Kim, T. H. Kim, S. B. Lee, Development of Customer Satisfaction Model of Providing Traffic Information through VMS on the Freeway, Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 28, No. 5D, pp.597-607. 2008. [3] H. W. Lee, D. H. Kim, B. H, Park, C. K. Lee, D. I. Ha, B. C. Lee, A Study on Driving Characteristics of Drivers at the Enforcement System Based on Speed Data, The journal of the Korea institute of intelligent transport systems, Vol.9, No.6, pp.43-53, 2010. [4] Y. H. Jeong, Y. W. Choi, A Study on the Analysis of Urban Highways Traffic Accident`s Impact Factors Based on Building Discriminant Models(In Busan Metropolitan City), JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS, pp.1269-1278, 2014. [5] S. H. Hwang, A Study on Development of Speed Management Strategies in Korea, Police journal, Vol.8, pp.274-298, 2005. [6] Y. T. Jo, I. B. Jung, Real-Time Variable Speed Limits for Urban Freeway, Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters, vol.16, no.10, pp.962-974, 2010. [7] K. B. Kim, K. S. Hwang, A Study on the choice behavior of Transportation Mode in Jeju, The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, vol.11, no.12, pp.4795-4802, 2010. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/kais.2010.11.12.4795 황경수 (Kyung-Soo Hwang) [ 정회원 ] < 관심분야 > 교통행정, 도시행정, 문화행정 1997 년 2 월 : 서울시립대학교 ( 교통공학박사 ) 1998 년 8 월 ~ 2000 년 8 월 : 제주발전연구원 2004 년 8 월 ~ 현재 : 제주대학교행정학과교수 김경범 (Kyung-Bum Kim) [ 정회원 ] < 관심분야 > 교통행정, 도시행정, 행정통계 2004 년 8 월 : 제주대학교대학원행정학과 ( 행정학석사 ) 2012 년 2 월 : 제주대학교대학원행정학과 ( 행정학박사 ) 2015 년 12 월 ~ 현재 : 제주대학교행정학과강사 387
한국산학기술학회논문지제 17 권제 1 호, 2016 양정철 (Jeong-Cheol Yang) [ 정회원 ] 2010 년 2 월 : 제주대학교행정대학원 ( 행정학석사 ) 2015 년 5 월 : 제주대학교 ( 행정학박사 ) 2015 년 9 월 ~ 현재 : 제주대학교행정학과강사 < 관심분야 > 요트 & 크루즈, 지역개발, 해양관광, 입지론 388