Microsoft Word - 삼성전자 doc

COMPANY REPORT 삼성전자 (593.KS) 반도체 가전 / 부품담당임돌이 Tel.(2)24-9524 lim.dori@shinyoung.com 16 도달하면위험자산선호현상가속화신호 전고점돌파못한상태에서 IT 2nd Tier주상승 : 16만원도달여부주목필자는동사주가가전고점인 157만원을넘어 16만원에도달한다면주식과같은위험자산선호현상이가속화되는신호로보고있어. 한동안전고점을돌파하지못했으므로 IT 2nd Tier 주만상승했을뿐, 다른업종주가는오히려조정양상을나타냄. 향후에는동사주가의전고점재돌파시도가이루어질것으로관측되며전고점인 157만원을넘어 16만원에도달한다면앞서언급한바와같이위험자산선호현상이가속화되는신호로해석될수있다고판단. 이경우 IT 2nd Tier 주의상승지속뿐만아니라다른업종주가의재상승시도또한이루어질것으로예상. 165만원부근까지충분히상승할여력갖춰 : 이경우 KOSPI 2,2 근방도달동사주가는지난 1년반동안페이스메이커역할을성공적으로수행한후 16만원근방에서횡보중임. 그사이여러악재로인해종합주가지수가상대적으로디커플링된상태로눌려있으나종합적인관점에서동사주가는 165만원부근까지충분히상승할여력을갖춘것으로평가되며이경우 KOSPI 또한 2,2 근방까지상승가능할전망. 투자의견중립유지는상승여력이부족해서일뿐 Valuation 저렴 Valuation 이저렴하여역사적 PBR 평균배수 2.배를 1% 할인적용한 1,65, 원부근은충분히도달가능한수준으로판단. 당사규정상절대주가기준 1% 이상의상승여력이존재해야투자의견을매수로유지할수있지만현주가대비적정주가 1,65, 원까지의상승여력이 8% 에불과해투자의견은중립을유지. 당사사규에따라투자의견을중립으로제시할시에는목표주가는표시할수없어. 결산기 (12월) 21A 211A 212P 213F 214F 매출액 ( 십억원 ) 154,63.3 165,1.8 21,13.6 229,323.1 246,984.4 영업이익 ( 십억원 ) 17,296.5 16,249.7 29,473.2 34,116.7 34,77.5 세전손익 ( 십억원 ) 19,328.7 17,159. 31,54.1 36,851.9 37,691.3 당기순이익 ( 십억원 ) 16,146.5 13,734.1 25,434.4 29,575.6 3,238.1 지배순이익 ( 십억원 ) 15,799. 13,359.2 24,74.1 28,768.4 29,412.7 EPS( 원 ) 92,863 78,522 145,417 169,94 172,881 증감율 (%) 63.7-15.4 85.2 16.3 2.2 ROE(%) 2.7 14.6 22.9 21.8 18.5 PER( 배 ) 1.2 13.5 1.5 9. 8.8 PBR( 배 ) 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.4 EV/EBITDA( 배 ) 5.1 5.5 5.6 3.8 3.4 주 ) EPS, ROE, PER, PBR은지배주주지분기준으로계산된값입니다. 중립 A( 유지 ) 현재주가 (3/29) 1,527,원 목표주가 (12M) - Key Data ( 기준일 : 213.3.29) KOSPI(pt) 24.89 KOSDAQ(pt) 555.2 액면가 ( 원 ) 5 시가총액 ( 억원 ) 2,449,282 발행주식수 ( 천주 ) 17,133 평균거래량 (3M, 주 ) 282,13 평균거래대금 (3M, 백만원 ) 422,19 52 주최고 / 최저 1,576, / 1,91, 52 주일간 Beta.8 배당수익률 (12F,%).7 외국인지분율 (%) 49.6 주요주주지분율 (%) 이건희외 11 인 17.7 % 국민연금공단 7. % Company Performance 주가상승률 (%) 1M 3 M 6 M 12M 절대수익률 -1.1.3 13.4 19.3 KOSPI 대비상대수익률. -.1 13. 19.9 Company vs KOSPI composite ( 원 ) 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 삼성전자 Relative to KOSPI 12/4 12/6 12/8 12/1 12/12 13/2 (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 SHINYOUNG RESEARCH

Contents Summary... 3 Ⅰ. 주가전망... 4 Ⅱ. 실적전망... 5 III. 부문별실적추정및전망... 9 IV. Valuation... 13 2

Summary (212.1=1) 19. 17. 15. Samsung Apple SK HYNIX Micron LGE 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 12/1 12/4 12/7 12/1 13/1 45 4 35 스마트폰 ASP 휴대폰 ASP 피쳐폰 ASP 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213E 214E 2, 1,6 ( 천원 ) Price(adj.) 1. x 1.3 x 1.7 x 2. x 2.3 x 1,2 8 4 4.1 6.1 8.1 1.1 12.1 3

I. 주가전망 전고점돌파못한상태에서 IT 2nd Tier 주상승 : 16 만원도달여부주목 필자는동사주가가전고점인 157만원을넘어 16만원에도달한다면주식과같은위험자산선호현상이가속화되는신호로보고있다. 한동안전고점을돌파하지못했으므로 IT 2nd Tier 주만상승했을뿐, 다른업종주가는오히려조정양상을나타내었다. 향후에는동사주가의전고점재돌파시도가이루어질것으로관측되며전고점인 157만원을넘어 16만원에도달한다면앞서언급한바와같이위험자산선호현상이가속화되는신호로해석될수있다고판단된다. 이경우 IT 2nd Tier 주의상승지속뿐만아니라다른업종주가의재상승시도또한이루어질것으로예상. (212.1=1) 19. 17. Samsung Apple SK HYNIX Micron LGE 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 12/1 12/4 12/7 12/1 13/1 165만원부근까지충분히상승할여력갖춰 : 이경우 KOSPI 2,2 근방도달동사주가는지난 1년반동안페이스메이커역할을성공적으로수행한후 16만원근방에서횡보중이다. 그사이여러악재로인해종합주가지수가상대적으로디커플링된상태로눌려있으나종합적인관점에서동사주가는 165만원부근까지충분히상승할여력을갖춘것으로평가되며이경우 KOSPI 또한 2,2 근방까지상승가능할전망이다. 4

II. 실적전망 피처폰이스마트폰으로대체되는효과가스마트폰 ASP 하락우려를완충 전체휴대폰출하량중스마트폰이차지하는비중이 212 년 58%( 금액기준 82% 이상 ), 213 년 74%( 금액기준 92% 이상 ) 에이를전망이므로아직피처폰이스마트폰으로대체되는효과를기대할수있어스마트폰의저가화로 ASP가완만히하락하더라도당분간영업이익규모의현상유지가가능한것으로판단된다. 여기에 212 년내내기대보다부진했던반도체사업부문과디스플레이패널사업부문업황이일정부분회복을보여정체될휴대폰사업부문을보좌할전망이다. 45 4 스마트폰 ASP 휴대폰 ASP 피쳐폰 ASP 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213E 214E ( 조원 ) 6. 반도체 DP IM CE 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 5

갤럭시 S4 덜팔리진않을듯 : 어차피제한된선택 갤럭시S4 공개이후시장에소프트웨어기능발전에대한긍정적의견과하드웨어적혁신이부족하다는부정적의견이공존하고있다. 현재는필자가이미수차례언급해왔듯이 AP, 디스플레이등하드웨어적인부분의혁신은날로높아져가는기대치에부응하는정도일뿐상회하기는어려운혁신저하의시기로이러한시기에는마케팅력이성패를판가름할것으로판단된다. 1) 설사갤럭시S4의사양이높아진눈높이를충족시키지못한다해도경쟁자들또한비슷하게는가능해도이를완벽히뛰어넘는고사양의제품을출시할수없는것이현실이고, 2) 삼성의글로벌인지도와마케팅력이경쟁자들과차이가많은점을고려하면갤럭시S4가덜팔릴가능성은적으므로너무많은우려는할필요가없는것으로관측된다. 애플도지난분기에아이폰5에대한실망감이존재함에도불구하고구모델 ( 아이폰4S 이하제품 ) 포함, 4,78 만대의스마트폰을판매한점이그좋은예이다. 제품명갤럭시 S4 갤럭시 S3 mini 갤럭시노트 2 아티브 S 갤럭시 S3 LTE 갤럭시노트갤럭시 R 갤럭시에이스갤럭시 Y 출시 213.3 212.1 212.1 212.1 212.6 211.1 OS Android 4.2.2 Android 4.1 Android 4.1 Window phone 8 Android 4..4 Android 4..3 Android 2.3 Android 2.3 Android 2.3 디스플레이 / 해상도 5" (192x18) 4' (8x48) 5.5' (128x72) 4.8' (128x72) 4.8' (128x72) 5.3' (128x8) 4.2' (8x48) 3.5' (48x32) 3' (32x24) 종류 / 특징 SAMOLED, 441ppi Super AMOLED, 233HD Super AMOLED, Super AMOLED, 3Super AMOLED, 3 Super AMOLED, 2 Super Clear LCD TFT LCD, 165pp TFT LCD, 133pp 두께 7.9mm 9.8mm 9.4mm 8.7mm 8.6mm 9.65mm 9.45mm 11.5mm 11.5mm 무게 13g 112g AP 1.9GHz 1.5GHz Dual 1.4GHz Quadcorcore 1.5GHz Dual- 1.6GHz Quad 1GHz Dual Quad(Snap) 1GHz Dual Spandragon S4 Exynos (Nvidia Tegra2) 1.6GHz Octa(Exy) plus (Cortex A9) (Snapdragon S3) 832MHz 832MHz RAM 2GB 1GB 2GB 1GB 1GB 1GB 1GB 512MB 내장메모리 16/32/64GB 16GB 32GB 16GB 32GB 16GB 8GB 3GB.16GB 확장메모리 microsd 카메라 ( 전면 / 후면 ) 13MP/2MP 5MP/.3MP 8MP/1.9MP 8MP/1.9MP 8MP/1.9MP 8MP/2MP 5MP/1.3MP 5MP 2MP 데이터통신 LTE HSDPA 4G LTE HSDPA+ 4G LTE 4G LTE HSPA HSDPA HSDPA 통화시간 15h 7h 3m 배터리 26mAh 15mAh 31mAh 23mAh 21mAh 25mAh 165mAh 13mAh 12mAh 자료 : Phone Arena, 신영증권리서치센터 6

( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 213E Total 45,271 47,597 52,177 56,59 21,14 54,712 57,39 57,952 59,35 229,323 QoQ (%) -4.3% 5.1% 9.6% 7.4% -2.4% 4.7% 1.1% 2.4% YoY (%) 22.4% 2.7% 26.4% 18.5% 21.9% 2.9% 2.4% 11.1% 5.9% 14.% 반도체 7,98 8,6 8,72 9,59 34,89 9,373 9,773 1,122 1,657 39,926 DRAM 2,992 3,273 3,154 3,167 12,585 3,65 3,284 3,539 3,878 13,766 NAND 1,898 2,147 2,66 2,163 8,275 2,157 2,23 2,16 2,212 8,732 Non-memory 3,9 3,18 3,5 4,26 14,3 4,151 4,285 4,424 4,567 17,428 DP 8,54 8,25 8,46 7,75 33, 9,149 9,444 9,557 1,222 38,372 LCD 6,18 5,63 5,4 4,96 22,17 4,573 4,621 4,545 4,679 18,418 SMD 2,36 2,62 3,6 2,79 1,83 4,576 4,823 5,12 5,543 19,954 IM 23,22 24,4 29,92 31,32 18,5 3,75 3,914 3,976 31,589 123,554 Handset 18,856 2,52 26,25 27,23 92,856 25,738 26,457 26,59 27,35 15,739 CE 1,67 12,15 11,6 13,95 48,37 12,555 13,811 14,156 14,14 54,535 Others -5,14-5,443-6,523-6,551-23,656-6,44-6,633-6,859-7,133-27,64 Portion (%) 반도체 17.6% 18.1% 16.7% 17.1% 17.3% 17.1% 17.1% 17.5% 18.% 17.4% DRAM 6.6% 6.9% 6.% 5.6% 6.3% 5.6% 5.7% 6.1% 6.5% 6.% NAND 4.2% 4.5% 4.% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% Non-memory 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 7.6% 7.% 7.6% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.6% DP 18.9% 17.3% 16.2% 13.8% 16.4% 16.7% 16.5% 16.5% 17.2% 16.7% LCD 13.7% 11.8% 1.3% 8.8% 11.% 8.4% 8.1% 7.8% 7.9% 8.% SMD 5.2% 5.5% 5.9% 5.% 5.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.6% 9.3% 8.7% IM 51.3% 5.5% 57.3% 55.9% 54.% 55.% 53.9% 53.5% 53.2% 53.9% Handset 41.7% 43.1% 5.3% 48.6% 46.2% 47.% 46.2% 45.7% 45.6% 46.1% CE 23.6% 25.5% 22.2% 24.9% 24.1% 22.9% 24.1% 24.4% 23.6% 23.8% Others -11.4% -11.4% -12.5% -11.7% -11.8% -11.8% -11.6% -11.8% -12.% -11.8% 영업이익 5,85 6,724 8,61 8,837 29,473 8,138 8,894 8,548 8,537 34,117 QoQ (%) 1.5% 14.9% 19.9% 9.6% -7.9% 9.3% -3.9% -.1% YoY (%) 98.4% 79.2% 89.5% 66.9% 8.2% 39.1% 32.3% 6.% -3.4% 15.8% 반도체 76 1,11 1,2 1,42 4,31 1,322 1,417 1,488 1,492 5,719 DP 28 75 1,17 1,11 3,31 1,217 1,351 1,3 1,38 5,176 IM 4,27 4,19 5,63 5,44 19,53 5,96 5,53 5,32 5,326 21,227 CE 53 76 39 74 2,42 653 773 69 561 2,596 Others 1-86 -149 127-97 -15-15 -15-15 -6 OP margin (%) 12.9% 14.1% 15.4% 15.8% 14.7% 14.9% 15.5% 14.8% 14.4% 14.9% 반도체 9.5% 12.9% 11.7% 14.8% 12.4% 14.1% 14.5% 14.7% 14.% 14.3% DP 3.3% 9.1% 13.8% 14.3% 1.% 13.3% 14.3% 13.6% 12.8% 13.5% IM 22.6% 2.4% 21.4% 2.% 21.% 19.8% 2.8% 2.% 19.7% 2.1% CE 5.% 6.3% 3.4% 5.3% 5.% 5.2% 5.6% 4.3% 4.% 4.8% 주 : K-IFRS 기준, 조정영업이익기준이아닌발표영업이익기준임 자료 : 삼성전자, 신영증권리서치센터 7

( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 213E DRAM Shipment (mn) 1Gb equivalents 2,356 2,525 2,679 3,2 1,58 2,929 3,99 3,297 3,495 12,82 QoQ (%) 3.5% 7.2% 6.1% 12.7% -3.% 5.8% 6.4% 6.% YoY (%) 29.4% 3.% 27.6% 32.7% 3.% 24.3% 22.7% 23.1% 15.7% 21.2% Blended ASP($) 1Gb equivalents 1.1 1.1 1..9 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. QoQ (%) -9.%.4% -8.3% -8.% 1.9% 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% YoY (%) -35.1% -32.8% -27.5% -22.9% -3.2% -13.7% -11.5% -.3% 11.2% -4.2% NAND Flash Shipment (mn) 16Gb equivalents 1,42 1,396 1,57 1,872 5,88 2,65 2,337 2,573 2,753 9,728 QoQ (%).% 34.% 12.5% 19.2% 1.3% 13.2% 1.1% 7.% YoY (%) 146.4% 161.1% 151.5% 179.7% 6.8% 198.2% 167.4% 163.9% 147.1% 65.5% Blended ASP($) 16Gb equivalents 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1. 1. 1.1 QoQ (%) -1.% -18.3% -1.4% -7.6% -6.7% -6.% -7.5% -9.% YoY (%) -35.7% -38.5% -36.4% -35.% -36.5% -33.3% -31.3% -28.6% -26.9% -3.3% Display Shipment (Km²) 7,425 7,818 8,53 7,94 31,235 7,559 7,831 8,81 8,38 31,779 Blended ASP($/m²) 68 631 647 637 2,596 63 625 68 64 2,467 Large size (mn) 44.6 47. 48.4 47.7 187.7 45.4 47.1 48.6 49.9 191. Blended ASP($) 121 112 115 113 115 112 111 18 17 11 QoQ (%) -1.% -7.2% 2.5% -1.5% -1.1% -.9% -2.7% -.6% YoY (%) -1.6% -6.4% 4.6% -7.1% -2.8% -7.3% -1.% -6.1% -5.2% -5.% SMD (Wb) Sales 2,36 2,62 3,6 4,447 12,487 4,576 4,823 5,12 5,543 19,954 Operating profit 4 425 57 658 1,99 52 57 63 615 2,38 OP margin (%) 16.9% 16.2% 16.6% 14.8% 15.9% 11.4% 11.8% 12.% 11.1% 11.6% Handset Shipment (mn) 93 9 15 11 4 18 115 12 125 468 QoQ (%) -3.% -3.3% 16.6% 4.7% -2.5% 7.% 4.4% 3.8% YoY (%) 32.9% 24.% 13.8% 14.5% 2.3% 15.1% 27.3% 14.% 13.1% 17.% Smartphone 45 51 57 64 216 72 74 85 92 323 % of total 47.6% 55.8% 54.% 57.7% 53.9% 66.9% 64.3% 7.7% 73.7% 69.1% QoQ (%) 21.3% 13.5% 12.7% 12.% 13.% 2.8% 14.9% 8.2% YoY (%) 32.9% 24.% 13.8% 14.5% 12.2% 15.1% 27.3% 14.% 13.1% 49.8% Blended ASP($) 171 173 175 176 174 174 17 167 162 168 QoQ (%) 1.5% 1.% 1.1%.6% -1.% -2.4% -2.% -2.5% YoY (%) 32.8% 23.6% 23.4% 13.5% 22.9% 1.7% -1.7% -4.8% -7.7% -3.2% 주 : K-IFRS 기준, 조정영업이익기준이아닌발표영업이익기준임 자료 : 삼성전자, 신영증권리서치센터 8

III. 부문별실적전망 IM: 1 분기매출액 3.1 조원, 영업이익 5.1 조원예상 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 213E IM 23,22 24,4 29,92 31,32 18,5 3,75 3,914 3,976 31,589 123,554 QoQ (%) 11.7% 3.5% 24.5% 4.7% -4.% 2.8%.2% 2.% YoY (%) 69.6% 59.9% 66.8% 5.7% 6.9% 29.5% 28.6% 3.5%.9% 13.9% Handset 18,856 2,52 26,25 27,23 92,856 25,738 26,457 26,59 27,35 15,739 QoQ (%) 5.8% 8.8% 27.9% 3.7% -5.5% 2.8%.2% 2.% YoY (%) 77.2% 68.5% 76.2% 52.8% 67.2% 36.5% 28.9% 1.% -.7% 13.9% IM 영업이익 (Wb) 4,27 4,19 5,63 5,44 19,53 5,96 5,53 5,32 5,326 21,227 QoQ (%) 68.1% -1.9% 34.4% -3.4% -6.3% 8.% -3.7%.5% YoY (%) 192.5% 145.% 132.6% 114.2% 14.2% 19.3% 31.3% -5.8% -2.1% 8.7% OP margin (%) 18.4% 17.4% 18.8% 17.4% 18.% 16.9% 17.8% 17.1% 16.9% 17.2% Handset 영업이익 (Wb) 4,27 4,19 5,63 5,44 19,53 5,96 5,53 5,32 5,326 21,227 QoQ (%) 68.1% -1.9% 34.4% -3.4% -6.3% 8.% -3.7%.5% YoY (%) 192.5% 145.% 132.6% 114.2% 14.2% 19.3% 31.3% -5.8% -2.1% 8.7% OP margin (%) 22.6% 2.4% 21.4% 2.% 21.% 19.8% 2.8% 2.% 19.7% 2.1% Handset Shipment (mn) 93 9 15 11 4 18 115 12 125 468 QoQ (%) -3.% -3.3% 16.6% 4.7% -2.5% 7.% 4.4% 3.8%.% YoY (%) 32.9% 24.% 13.8% 14.5% 2.3% 15.1% 27.3% 14.% 13.1% 17.% Smartphone 45 51 57 64 216 72 74 85 92 323 % of total 47.6% 55.8% 54.% 57.7% 53.9% 66.9% 64.3% 7.7% 73.7% 69.1% QoQ (%) 21.3% 13.5% 12.7% 12.% 13.% 2.8% 14.9% 8.2%.% YoY (%) 32.9% 24.% 13.8% 14.5% 12.2% 15.1% 27.3% 14.% 13.1% 49.8% Blended ASP($) 171 173 175 176 174 174 17 167 162 168 QoQ (%) 1.5% 1.% 1.1%.6% -1.% -2.4% -2.% -2.5%.% YoY (%) 32.8% 23.6% 23.4% 13.5% 22.9% 1.7% -1.7% -4.8% -7.7% -3.2% 주 : K-IFRS 기준, 조정영업이익기준이아닌발표영업이익기준임자료 : 삼성전자, 신영증권리서치센터 ( 백만대 ) ( 달러 ) ( 십억원 ) 7 6 스마트폰출하량핸드폰 ASP 18 17 35 3 IM 매출액 영업이익률 2% 18% 16% 5 4 3 2 16 15 14 25 2 15 1 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 1 13 5 4% 2% - 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 12 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 % 9

반도체 : 1 분기매출액 9.4 조원, 영업이익 1.3 조원예상 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 213E 반도체 7,98 8,6 8,72 9,59 34,89 9,373 9,773 1,122 1,657 39,926 QoQ (%) -13.% 7.8% 1.4% 1.% -2.3% 4.3% 3.6% 5.3% YoY (%) -13.1% -6.1% -8.% 4.6% -5.7% 17.5% 13.6% 16.1% 11.1% 14.4% DRAM 2,992 3,273 3,154 3,167 12,585 3,65 3,284 3,539 3,878 13,766 QoQ (%) -7.1% 9.4% -3.6%.4% -3.2% 7.2% 7.7% 9.6% YoY (%) -16.1% -9.% -2.3% -1.6% -7.5% 2.4%.4% 12.2% 22.5% 9.4% NAND 1,898 2,147 2,66 2,163 8,275 2,157 2,23 2,16 2,212 8,732 QoQ (%) -15.3% 13.1% -3.8% 4.7% -.3% 2.1% -2.% 2.4% YoY (%) -31.7% -21.7% -24.7% -3.5% -21.2% 13.6% 2.6% 4.5% 2.2% 5.5% Non-memory 3,9 3,18 3,5 4,26 14,3 4,151 4,285 4,424 4,567 17,428 영업이익 (Wb) 76 1,11 1,2 1,42 4,31 1,322 1,417 1,488 1,492 5,719 QoQ (%) -67.1% 46.1% -8.1% 39.2% -6.9% 7.2% 5.%.3% YoY (%) -53.7% -38.% -36.% -38.5% -41.2% 73.9% 27.7% 45.9% 5.1% 32.7% OP margin (%) 9.5% 12.9% 11.7% 14.8% 12.4% 14.1% 14.5% 14.7% 14.% 14.3% DRAM Shipment (mn) 1Gb equivalents 2,356 2,525 2,679 3,2 1,58 2,929 3,99 3,297 3,495 12,82 QoQ (%) 3.5% 7.2% 6.1% 12.7%.% -3.% 5.8% 6.4% 6.%.% YoY (%) 29.4% 3.% 27.6% 32.7% 3.% 24.3% 22.7% 23.1% 15.7% 21.2% Blended ASP($) 1Gb equivalents 1.1 1.1 1..9 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. NAND Flash Shipment (mn) 16Gb equivalents 1,42 1,396 1,57 1,872 5,88 2,65 2,337 2,573 2,753 9,728 QoQ (%).% 34.% 12.5% 19.2%.% 1.3% 13.2% 1.1% 7.%.% YoY (%) 146.4% 161.1% 151.5% 179.7% 6.8% 198.2% 167.4% 163.9% 147.1% 65.5% Blended ASP($) 16Gb equivalents 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1. 1. 1.1 주 : K-IFRS 기준, 조정영업이익기준이아닌발표영업이익기준임 자료 : 삼성전자, 신영증권리서치센터 ( 십억원 ) 12 반도체매출액 영업이익률 3% 4% 35% DRAM QoQ bit growth NAND QoQ bit growth 1 25% 3% 8 2% 25% 6 15% 2% 15% 4 1% 1% 2 5% 5% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 % % 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1

디스플레이패널 : 1 분기매출액 9.1 조원, 영업이익 1.2 조원예상 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 213E DP 8,54 8,25 8,46 7,75 33, 9,149 9,444 9,557 1,222 38,372 QoQ (%) -.1% -3.4% 2.5% -8.4% 18.1% 3.2% 1.2% 7.% YoY (%) 31.2% 16.4% 19.5% -9.4% 12.9% 7.1% 14.5% 13.% 31.9% 16.3% LCD 6,18 5,63 5,4 4,96 22,17 4,573 4,621 4,545 4,679 18,418 QoQ (%) -1.1% -8.9% -4.1% -8.1% -7.8% 1.1% -1.7% 3.% YoY (%) 17.3% -2.3% -.4% -2.6% -2.3% -26.% -17.9% -15.8% -5.7% -16.9% SMD 2,36 2,62 3,6 2,79 1,83 4,576 4,823 5,12 5,543 19,954 QoQ (%) 2.6% 11.% 16.8% -8.8% 64.% 5.4% 3.9% 1.6% YoY (%) 89.8% 97.% 84.3% 21.3% 65.8% 93.9% 84.1% 63.8% 98.7% 84.2% 영업이익 (Wb) 28 75 1,17 1,11 3,31 1,217 1,351 1,3 1,38 5,176 OP margin (%) 3.3% 9.1% 13.8% 14.3% 1.% 13.3% 14.3% 13.6% 12.8% 13.5% Display Shipment (Km²) 7,425 7,818 8,53 7,94 31,235 7,559 7,831 8,81 8,38 31,779 Blended ASP($/m²) 68 631 647 637 2,596 63 625 68 64 2,467 Large size (mn) 44.6 47. 48.4 47.7 187.7 45.4 47.1 48.6 49.9 191. QoQ (%).2% 5.3% 3.% -1.4%.% -4.8% 3.6% 3.2% 2.8%.% YoY (%) 15.3% 1.5% 11.3% 7.2% 1.9% 1.8%.2%.4% 4.6% 1.7% Blended ASP($) 121 112 115 113 115 112 111 18 17 11 QoQ (%) -1.% -7.2% 2.5% -1.5%.% -1.1% -.9% -2.7% -.6%.% YoY (%) -1.6% -6.4% 4.6% -7.1% -2.8% -7.3% -1.% -6.1% -5.2% -5.% SMD (Wb) Sales 2,36 2,62 3,6 4,447 12,487 4,576 4,823 5,12 5,543 19,954 QoQ (%) 2.6% 11.% 16.8% 45.3% 2.9% 5.4% 3.9% 1.6% YoY (%) 89.8% 97.% 84.3% 93.3% 91.1% 93.9% 84.1% 63.8% 24.6% 59.8% Operating profit 4 425 57 658 1,99 52 57 63 615 2,38 QoQ (%) 48.1% 6.3% 19.3% 29.8% -21.% 9.6% 5.8% 2.% YoY (%) 161.4% 138.8% 14.4% 143.7% 134.4% 3.% 34.1% 18.9% -6.5% 16.% OP margin (%) 16.9% 16.2% 16.6% 14.8% 15.9% 11.4% 11.8% 12.% 11.1% 11.6% 주 : K-IFRS 기준, 조정영업이익기준이아닌발표영업이익기준임 자료 : 삼성전자, 신영증권리서치센터 11

CE: 1 분기매출액 12.6 조원, 영업이익.7 조원예상 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 212 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E 213E CE 1,67 12,15 11,6 13,95 48,37 12,555 13,811 14,156 14,14 54,535 QoQ (%) -23.8% 13.9% -4.5% 2.3% -1.% 1.% 2.5% -1.% YoY (%) 1.9% 8.2% 2.5% -.4% 2.9% 17.7% 13.7% 22.%.5% 12.7% 영업이익 (Wb) 53 76 39 74 2,42 653 773 69 561 2,596 QoQ (%) -19.7% 43.4% -48.7% 89.7% -11.8% 18.5% -21.3% -7.9% YoY (%) 43.% 49.% 62.5% 12.1% 6.3% 23.2% 1.8% 56.1% -24.2% 7.3% OP margin (%) 5.% 6.3% 3.4% 5.3% 5.% 5.2% 5.6% 4.3% 4.% 4.8% 주 : K-IFRS 기준, 조정영업이익기준이아닌발표영업이익기준임 자료 : 삼성전자, 신영증권리서치센터 12

IV. Valuation 투자의견중립유지는상승여력이부족해서일뿐 Valuation 저렴 Valuation 이저렴하여역사적 PBR 평균배수 2.배를 1% 할인적용한 1,65, 원부근은충분히도달가능한수준으로판단된다. 당사규정상절대주가기준 1% 이상의상승여력이존재해야투자의견을매수로유지할수있지만현주가대비적정주가 1,65, 원까지의상승여력이 8% 에불과해투자의견은중립을유지한다. 당사사규에따라투자의견을중립으로제시할시에는목표주가는표시할수없다. 2, ( 천원 ) Price(adj.) 1. x 1.3 x 1.7 x 2. x 2.3 x 1,6 1,2 8 4 4.1 6.1 8.1 1.1 12.1 2, ( 천원 ) Price(adj.) 6. x 7.5 x 9. x 1.5 x 12. x 1,6 1,2 8 4 4.1 6.1 8.1 1.1 12.1 13

( 단위 : 십억원 ) Intel nvidia Micron Toshiba Apple Nokia HTC Code INTC US NVDA US MU US Equity 652 JP AAPL US NOK1V FH 2498 TT Equity Equity Equity Equity Equity Equity Country UNITED UNITED UNITED JAPAN UNITED FINLAND TAIWAN STATES STATES STATES STATES Currency KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW KRW Price 24,286 14,27 11,95 5,57 492,349 3,596 9,112 Mkt. Cap ( 십억 ) 12,118 8,79 11,336 23,62 462,344 13,468 7,764 PE 1 1.4 n/a 4.4 n/a 19.3 15.5 18.6 (X) 11 9.6 64.2 52.2 11.8 14.6 n/a 6.8 12E 9.8 1.9 n/a 29.5 1. n/a 12.5 13E 1.8 11.9 n/a 17.9 1. 114.7 15.7 PBR 1 2.3 3.2.8 2.6 5.6 2. 9.7 (X) 11 2.6 4.4.7 2. 4.9 1.2 4.1 12E 2.2 1.9 1.3 2.2 3.6 1.2 2.3 13E 2. 1.7 1.4 2. 2.9 1.3 2.3 EV/EBITDA 1 4.7 71. 2.2 8. 11.2 6.4 14.4 (X) 11 4.8 29.9 2.4 5.7 8.3 6.9 4.6 12E 4.6 4.8 7.2 8.3 4.8 9.7 7. 13E 4.7 4.6 5.5 7.8 4.6 4.4 9.2 ROE 1 25.2 (2.7) 28.5 (3.2) 35.3 13.5 56.3 (%) 11 27.1 8.7 2. 16.6 41.7 (8.9) 7.4 12E 22. 16.1 (12.) 7.4 4.5 (24.6) 17.8 13E 19.6 12.6 (4.5) 12.3 31.7 (3.2) 14.2 Gross Margin 1 65.3 35.4 32. 22.9 39.4 3.2 3.1 (%) 11 62.5 39.8 2. 23.5 4.5 29.4 28.3 12E 61.9 51.6 12.1 22.8 44. 27.3 25.2 13E 59.7 52. 19.1 24.7 39. 28. 23.7 OPM 1 35.7 (3.) 18.6 1.8 28.2 4.9 15.8 (%) 11 32.4 5.6 8.6 3.8 31.2. 14.8 12E 27.5 17.2 (7.) 3.3 35.4.4 6.6 자료 : Bloomberg, 신영증권리서치센터 13E 24. 16.9 1.4 4.2 3.2 1.2 4.6 14

삼성전자 (593. KS) 추정재무제표 Income Statement Balance Sheet 12월결산 ( 십억원 ) 21A 211A 212F 213F 214F 12월결산 ( 십억원 ) 21A 211A 212F 213F 214F 매출액 154,63.3 165,1.8 21,13.6 229,323.1 246,984.4 유동자산 61,42.6 71,52.1 87,269. 115,36.5 142,451.5 증가율 (%) 11.2 6.7 21.9 14. 7.7 재고자산 13,364.5 15,716.7 19,155.5 21,843.4 23,525.7 매출원가 12,666.8 112,145.1 126,651.9 142,46.7 155,634.5 단기금융자산 12,688.5 12,185.9 11,513.1 11,513.1 11,513.1 원가율 (%) 66.4 68. 63. 62.1 63. 매출채권및기타채권 21,38.8 24,153. 29,437.6 33,568.4 36,153.7 매출총이익 51,963.5 52,856.7 74,451.7 86,862.4 91,349.9 현금및현금성자산 9,791.4 14,691.8 2,192.3 41,773.4 64,142. 매출총이익률 (%) 33.6 32. 37. 37.9 37. 비유동자산 72,886.2 84,129.2 93,82.6 97,994.7 12,888.4 판매비와관리비등 35,342.5 37,41.8 45,59.9 52,745.7 57,272.4 유형자산 52,964.6 62,44. 74,177.1 76,918.6 79,88.1 판관비율 (%) 22.9 22.7 22.7 23. 23.2 무형자산 2,779.4 3,355.2 3,574.6 3,27.4 2,937.9 영업이익 17,296.5 16,249.7 29,473.2 34,116.7 34,77.5 투자자산 11,375.5 12,427.8 14,517.1 16,15.9 18,24.3 증가율 (%) 49.4-6.1 81.4 15.8 -.1 기타금융업자산..... 영업이익률 (%) 11.2 9.8 14.7 14.9 13.8 자산총계 134,288.7 155,631.3 181,71.6 213,31.2 245,339.9 EBITDA 28,69.4 29,841.8 41,363.3 55,396.4 56,39.4 유동부채 39,944.7 44,319. 47,463.9 52,171.4 56,36.1 EBITDA 마진 (%) 18.6 18.1 2.6 24.2 22.7 단기차입금 8,429.7 9,653.7 9,428.2 8,83.1 8,83.1 순금융손익 -235. -489.9-48.4-423.3 215.7 매입채무및기타채무 24,24.8 28,48.3 34,185.2 38,982.1 41,984.3 이자손익 -23. 61.5 246.5 387.4 1,89.1 유동성장기부채 1,123.9 3.3 29.6 27.7 27.7 외화관련손익 -179.7-664.8-912.4-958. -986.8 비유동부채 4,994.9 9,466.9 1,33. 1,769. 1,889. 기타영업외손익..... 사채 587.3 1,28.1 1,425.7 1,528.9 1,528.9 종속및관계기업관련손익 2,267.1 1,399.2 2,511.3 3,158.5 3,398.1 장기차입금 536.9 3,559.6 3,964.4 4,251.3 4,251.3 법인세차감전계속사업이익 19,328.7 17,159. 31,54.1 36,851.9 37,691.3 장기금융부채 97.5 122.9 136.9 146.8 146.8 계속사업손익법인세비용 3,182.1 3,424.9 6,69.7 7,276.3 7,453.1 기타금융업부채..... 계속사업손익 16,146.5 13,734.1 25,434.4 29,575.6 3,238.1 부채총계 44,939.7 53,785.9 57,766.9 62,94.4 67,249.1 증가율 (%) 57.8-14.9 85.2 16.3 2.2 지배주주지분 85,589.6 97,599.8 118,891.1 145,178.2 172,12.2 세후중단사업손익..... 자본금 897.5 897.5 897.5 897.5 897.5 당기순이익 16,146.5 13,734.1 25,434.4 29,575.6 3,238.1 자본잉여금 4,43.9 4,43.9 4,43.9 4,43.9 4,43.9 증가율 (%) 57.8-14.9 85.2 16.3 2.2 기타자본 -6,562.2-6,522.3-7,212.3-7,212.3-7,212.3 순이익률 (%) 1.4 8.3 12.6 12.9 12.2 기타포괄이익누계액 1,835.8 1,278.1 887.7 457.1 7.7 지배주주지분당기순이익 15,799. 13,359.2 24,74.1 28,768.4 29,412.7 이익잉여금 85,14.6 97,542.5 119,914.3 146,632. 173,96.4 증가율 (%) 63.7-15.4 85.2 16.3 2.2 비지배주주지분 3,759.5 4,245.6 4,413.6 5,182.6 5,97.5 기타포괄이익 1,141.5-52.3-41.8-442. -397.8 자본총계 89,349.1 11,845.3 123,34.7 15,36.8 178,9.8 총포괄이익 17,288. 13,231.8 25,32.6 29,133.6 29,84.3 총차입금 1,775.4 14,646.6 14,984.8 14,784.8 14,784.8 주 ) K-IFRS 회계기준개정으로기존의기타영업수익 / 비용항목은제외됨 순차입금 -11,74.6-12,231. -16,72.5-38,51.6-6,87.2 Cas hflow Statement Valuation Indicator 12월결산 ( 십억원 ) 21A 211A 212F 213F 214F 12월결산 ( 십억원 ) 21A 211A 212F 213F 214F 영업활동으로인한현금흐름 23,826.8 22,917.9 31,476.5 49,352.6 51,733.9 Per Share ( 원 ) 당기순이익 16,146.5 13,734.1 25,434.4 29,575.6 3,238.1 EPS( 지배순이익기준 ) 92,863 78,522 145,417 169,94 172,881 현금유출이없는비용및수익 14,88.3 16,475.6 14,86.8 28,161.9 29,336.1 BPS( 지배지분기준 ) 548,698 617,984 742,169 896,678 1,55,37 유형자산감가상각비 1,847.4 12,934.3 11,42.8 2,258.5 21,38.5 DPS( 보통주 ) 1, 5,5 8, 8,5 8,5 무형자산상각비 546.5 657.8 847.4 1,21.2 923.5 Multiples ( 배 ) 영업활동관련자산부채변동 -5,668. -4,57.3-2,983.5-1,543.8-1,527.8 PER( 지배순이익기준 ) 1.2 13.5 1.5 9. 8.8 매출채권의감소 ( 증가 ) -1,935.6-2,196.8-5,284.6-4,13.8-2,585.3 PBR( 지배지분기준 ) 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.4 재고자산의감소 ( 증가 ) -4,812.8-3,919.7-3,438.8-2,688. -1,682.3 EV/EBITDA ( 발표기준 ) 5.1 5.5 5.6 3.8 3.4 매입채무의증가 ( 감소 ) 2,415.2 1,125.5 6,136.9 4,797. 3,2.2 투자활동으로인한현금흐름 -23,984.9-21,112.6-25,636.4-26,359.8-28,88.4 Financial Ratio 투자자산의감소 ( 증가 ) -11. 346.9-2,89.4-1,633.8-1,873.4 12월결산 ( 십억원 ) 21A 211A 212F 213F 214F 유형자산의감소 1,228. 379.9 454.2 471. 489.1 성장성 (%) CAPEX -21,619.2-21,965.7-23,519.9-23,. -24,. EPS( 지배순이익 ) 증가율 63.7% -15.4% 85.2% 16.3% 2.2% 단기금융자산의감소 ( 증가 ) -1,954.4 52.7 672.8.. EBITDA( 발표기준 ) 증가율 26.2% 4.% 38.6% 33.9% 1.2% 재무활동으로인한현금흐름 -152.3 3,19.7-339.6-1,411.7-1,276.9 수익성 (%) 장기차입금의증가 ( 감소 ).. 44.9 286.9. ROE( 순이익기준 ) 19.9% 14.4% 22.6% 21.6% 18.4% 사채의증가 ( 감소 ) 833.6 2,78.2 145.6 13.2. ROE( 지배순이익기준 ) 2.7% 14.6% 22.9% 21.8% 18.5% 자본의증가 ( 감소 )..... ROIC 22.3% 17.7% 28.7% 27.7% 26.7% 기타현금흐름 -48.1-14.7... 안전성 (%) 현금의증가 -358.5 4,9.3 5,5.5 21,581.1 22,368.5 부채비율 5.3% 52.8% 46.8% 41.9% 37.8% 기초현금 1,149.9 9,791.4 14,691.8 2,192.3 41,773.4 순차입금비율 -13.1% -12.% -13.6% -25.6% -34.2% 기말현금 9,791.4 14,691.8 2,192.3 41,773.4 64,142. 이자보상배율 29.8 25.2 47.8 54.1 54.7 (*) 신영증권리서치센터 (*) 조정영업이익은매출총이익에서판매비와관리비등을차감한금액입니다. 15

Compliance Notice 투자등급 종목 산업 리스크등급 매수 : 추천일종가대비목표주가 1% ~ 3% 이상의상승이예상되는경우중립 : 추천일종가대비 ±1 ~ ±3% 이내의등락이예상되는경우매도 : 추천일종가대비목표주가 -1 ~ -3%(C) 이하의하락이예상되는경우 비중확대 : 시가총액기준산업별시장비중대비보유비중의변화를높게추천중립 : 시가총액기준산업별시장비중대비보유비중의변화를같게추천비중축소 : 시가총액기준산업별시장비중대비보유비중의변화를낮게추천 : 재무제표와주가변동성을고려하여신영증권리서치센터에서 A, B, C 등급으로분류적용기준 1%(A) : Low Risk, 2%(B) : Medium Risk, 3%(C) : High Risk 당사는본자료발간일을기준으로지난 1 년간해당기업의기업금융관련업무를수행한바없습니다. 본자료는당사홈페이지에게시된자료로, 기관투자가등제 3 자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 본자료작성한애널리스트는발간일현재본인및배우자의계좌로동주식을보유하고있지않으며, 재산적이해관계가없습니다. 본자료의작성담당자는자료에게재된내용이본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인합니다. 본자료는과거의자료를기초로한투자참고자료로서향후주가움직임은과거의패턴과다를수있습니다. 본자료에수록된내용은당리서치센터가신뢰할수있는자료및정보로얻어진것이나정확성을보장할수없으므로어떠한경우에도본자료는고객의주식투자의결과에대한법적소재에대한증빙자료로사용될수없습니다. [ 당사와의이해관계고지 ] 종목명 LP( 유동성공급자 ) ELW 주식선물 1% 이상보유 계열사관계여부 채무이행보증 삼성전자 O - - - - 삼성전자 : 과거 2 년간투자의견및목표주가변동내역 추천일자투자의견목표주가 ( 원 ) 213-4-1 중립 - 213-2-25 중립 - 213-2-12 매수 165 212-6-4 매수 16 212-3-12 매수 146 212-2-28 매수 135 211-11-24 매수 12 211-1-11 매수 16 211-1-4 매수 12 211-7-15 매수 15 211-6-14 매수 118 211-6-1 매수 122 [212년6월4일] 애널리스트변경 16