기본연구보고서 11-34
연구책임자 : 선임연구위원 연구참여자 : 부연구위원 계명대학교교수 이달석 오세신 최성희
. 1964 SK ( ) 3 5 285 5.,,,, 6.,. 1990.. 10... 2000., 요약 i
.. 2.,. 2010 20 1.5% 2020 30 0.4%. 2015 76%, 2020 82%, 2030 85%. ( 28% ) 2030 60%.. 85%, 2030 (37 ), (129 ), B-C (58 ) (254 ) LPG(94 ). ii
2010 30 72 b/d, 66%.,. 2020,,,,,, 8 b/d,. 2020,,, LPG,.,,. 2012 2020, 449 b/d 283 b/d, 279 b/d 66 b/d, 984 b/d 519 b/d. LPG. 150 b/d., (RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage), (Nelson). 50 b/d. 14 19 b/d, 요약 iii
. RCA 2009 2010 1.5 2.1. RCA 1, RCA,, 4. 14 9..,,.,,..,,.,,. iv
... LPG. (NOC).. 19%. (HDU)....,.. 요약 v
.,.... (FTA). (GCC) FTA...... vi
It is difficult to expect further expansion of domestic demand, which was previously a driver of growth of Korea's oil industry. Domestic oil demand has reached maturity, resulting in a substantial slowdown in the rate of increase. In fact, domestic oil demand is steadily moving towards the state of saturation. Fortunately, a rise in exports in the 2000s somewhat addressed issues that resulted from a slowdown in domestic demand. However, emerging Asian nations are expected to substantially enhance their refining capacity. For this reason, it is unclear if Korea will be able to continually secure a certain portion of demand for petroleum product exports. As such, there is a need to closely analyze changes in the oil market in Korea as well as the Asia Pacific as a whole for continued development of the oil industry. Based on such analysis, new development strategies should be devised. This is the second-year research of the Future Oil Industry Strategy Research. It aims to formulate product export strategies, strategies to enhance efficiency of refining facilities, and overseas advancement strategies, with focus on the downstream oil industry. To this end, this research analyzes changes in the oil industry, including balance between oil supply and demand in the Korean and Abstract i
Asian Pacific market, and competitiveness of Korea's oil industry, followed by discussions on effective measures. The level of increase in domestic oil demand slowed down in stark contrast to the past. Domestic oil demand rose by an annual average of 1.5% from 2010 through 2020, and is expected to record annual average growth of merely 0.4% from 2020 through 2030. Assuming that current refining facilities are operated based on domestic demand, the rate of operation is forecast to reach 76% in 2015 and 82% in 2020. It is expected to reach 85%, which can be said to be an appropriate rate of operation, no earlier than 2030. The rate of operation of refining facilities is expected to be slightly higher than 60% even in 2030 when excluding the directly-imported volume (assuming a direct import ratio of 27%) of large consumers such as petrochemical companies and KEPCO from domestic demand. It is forecast that the number of refining facilities will remain excessive compared to domestic demand. As such, securing a certain portion of demand for petroleum product exports will continue to be an important task for the domestic oil industry. Oil demand in the Asia Pacific is projected to continue to expand, adding annual average of 0.7mmb/d from 2010 through 2030, contributing to 66% of global growth. As such, oil demand in the Asia Pacific is forecast to lead a rise in global oil demand. ii
According to forecasts on demand for each petroleum product in the Asia Pacific, the rate of increase is relatively high for diesel while it is relatively low for fuel oil. Refining capacity is expected to indicate growth of around 8mmb/d in China, India, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan, and other countries by 2020. Most of the growth will be the result of increased facilities in China and India. In terms of demand and supply for each petroleum product by 2020, continued excessive supply of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel will result in the need for export of these products. In contrast, shortage of supply in naphtha, LPG, and fuel oil will result in the need for import of these products. An increase in the number of refining facilities is expected to be short of a rise in demand for petroleum products during the forecast period. For this reason, the level of excessive supply of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel is expected to steadily decline. During the same period, there will likely be greater shortage in the supply of naphtha and less shortage in the supply of LPG. To analyze the competitiveness of Korea's oil industry, a comparison was carried out among countries with a crude oil refining capacity of more than 1.5 million b/d using three indexes: average refining capacity per refining complex, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, and Nelson index. The average size of atmospheric distillation units per refining Abstract iii
complex is approximately 500 thousand b/d for Korea which is the largest among countries. The average size of atmospheric distillation units per refining complex of 14 countries is 190 thousand b/d. A larger size means that average costs for production of petroleum products can be relatively lower. Korea's RCA index stood at 1.5 in 2009 and 2.1 in 2010, thus indicating that the nation has a comparative advantage in petroleum product exports. When the RCA index is larger than 1, a country is considered to have international competitiveness for the respective product. Korea ranks fourth, following Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia. The Nelson index shows how many complicated refining facilities a country has that can be used to produce high added-value products. In the Asia Pacific, Korea remains at 9th place from among 14 countries, although it is right behind Japan. An overall assessment of the three different indexes indicates that Korea's oil industry can maintain a relative competitive advantage in the global downstream market. Efficient execution of petroleum product exports, selective expansion of oil refining facilities, and advancement into the overseas downstream sector are suggested as future downstream iv
strategies for the Korean oil industry. In terms of petroleum product exports, the amount of excessive supply of gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel is expected to steadily go down in the Asia Pacific, leading to forecasts that it will be possible to maintain the current level of profitability. In particular, shortage of fuel oil is expected in the Asia Pacific. This is why an increase in profitability is forecast. For gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, and diesel, for which sales competition is expected in the Asian Pacific market, securing stable export routes is important. What is needed is to actively secure export routes in line with market condition, exchange rate, and institutional changes in each country in the Asia Pacific. There is also a need to consider North America as a strategic export destination based on the season, considering that operation of refining facilities in North America frequently comes to a stop due to hurricanes. It would also be appropriate to build a foundation for export to South America, which is recording sharp economic growth. Investments in oil refining facilities should be based on selective expansion. It is expected that the rise in oil demand in the Asia Pacific will exceed the increase in refining facilities and that there will be shortage in the supply of naphtha and LPG. However, excessive supply of other major petroleum products is forecast to continue. This is why increased investments in crude distillation units will probably not be appropriate. In particular, the simple refining Abstract v
margin can go down because refining capacity investments will likely be made by national oil companies (NOC) in the Asia Pacific that place priority on strategic considerations rather than profitability. However, there is a need for selective expansion of upgrading facilities. Korea's heavy oil upgrading unit ratio is 19% which is relatively low compared to major countries. As such, the country should look into measures that would increase its upgrading ratio by additionally expanding hydrocracking units, whose refining margin is expected to be relatively high, from among heavy oil upgrading units, in the long term. The country should also expand desulfurization units in consideration of continued strengthening of environmental regulations. To advance into the overseas downstream sector, there is a need to establish strategic alliances with national oil companies in emerging economies in the Asia Pacific that have a high possibility of recording a rise in oil demand. The refining technology field is where national oil companies will probably recognize the need to establish business alliances with private oil companies. National oil companies in emerging countries and Southeast Asia do not yet have advanced refining facilities. The advanced technologies that Korean oil companies have can serve as a basis for establishing alliances with national oil companies. What is also extremely important is to set up overseas offices in optimal areas. These offices would perform roles as a hub for information exchange, thus promoting cooperation vi
with national oil companies. Also needed are strategies on making inroads into the downstream sector by making a connection with relevant industries. One approach would be to advance into the oil refining sector of another country by establishing ties with petrochemical companies in the respective nation. Another approach would be to advance into overseas markets by establishing ties with Korean plants companies and resource development companies to offer 'packages'. Also worth considering is an approach that involves using participation in a country's oil distribution industry as the basis for advancing into its refining sector. Last of all, the government's roles remain important for continued growth of the oil industry. The government should extend the tax reduction and exemption system for investments in heavy oil upgrading units and desulfurization units before the system expires. The government should do so in consideration of the fact that there is a shortage of investments in upgrading units in the oil industry. It should also promote petroleum product exports by entering into FTAs. It should especially actively move forward with signing FTAs with Colombia in South America and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that have great oil demand potential. The government should also strengthen diplomatic relations and increase social and cultural exchange with emerging countries to promote foreign direct investment by Korean oil companies. Another important role that the government can perform to increase overseas Abstract vii
advancements is to support relevant public companies in Korea in forming consortiums with oil companies. Lastly, there is a need for government support in relation to raising funds for foreign direct investment. Relevant measures include creating overseas infrastructure funds through public financial institutes and increasing the underwriting volume of the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation. Another way for the government to support overseas advancements of the domestic oil industry is to build a system that can more clearly evaluate risks of overseas projects. viii
1 1 2 3 1. 3 2. 5 3. 8. 8. 13 4. 14. 14. 16. 20 5. 22. 22. 25 3 27 1. 27 2. 30. 85% 31. 33. 36 차례 i
4 39 1. 39. 39. 7 42 2. 56. 56. 7 60 3. 72. 72. 74 5 85 1. 85. 85. (RCA) 87. 90 2. 95. 96. 100 3. 103 4. 108. 108. 110 5. 112 ii
6 117 122 125 차례 iii
< 2-1> 4 < 2-2> 7 < 2-3> 8 < 2-4> (2011 1 ) 9 < 2-5> (2011 9 ) 14 < 2-6> 15 < 2-7> 18 < 2-8> 19 < 2-9> (1 ) 21 < 2-10> 24 < 2-11> 26 < 3-1> 29 < 3-2> ( 85% ) 31 < 3-3> ( 85% ) 33 < 3-4> ( ) 34 < 3-5> ( ) 35 < 3-6> ( ) 36 < 3-7> ( ) 37 < 4-1> 40 < 4-2> (2009-2030) 44 < 4-3> (2009~2030) 46 < 4-4> (2009~2030) 48 iv
< 4-5> (2009~2030) 50 < 4-6> (2009~2030) 51 < 4-7> (2009~2030) 53 < 4-8> (2009~2030) 55 < 4-9> 73 < 4-10> ( ) 75 < 5-1> 86 < 5-2> RCA 90 < 5-3> 92 < 5-4> - Baton Rouge 93 < 5-5> 2012~2020 99 < 5-6> 108 < 5-7> 112 < -1> (2010~2011) 125 < -2> 127 < -3> 130 < -4> (2010~2011) 131 < -5> 134 < -6> (2010~2011) 135 < -7> 137 < -8> 138 < -9> (2010~2011) 139 < -10> 139 < -11> (2010~2011) 140 < -12> 140 차례 v
< -13> 141 < -14> (2010~2011) 142 < -15> 143 < -16> 143 < -17> (2010~2011) 144 < -18> 144 < -19> 145 vi
[ 3-1] 27 [ 4-1] 41 [ 4-2] 42 [ 4-3] 56 [ 4-5] 58 [ 4-6] 59 [ 5-1] 95 [ 5-2] 105 차례 vii
. 1964 SK ( ) 3 5 285 5.,,,, 6.. 2010 20.2%, 1 4. 2008 8.7%, 2010 6.7%,,, 5.,. 1990.. 10.. 제 1 장서론 1
. 2000.,.. 2.,.. 2,,. 3 2030. 4,. 5, (RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage), (Nelson). 4,,. 6. 2
2010 2.6% 9. 1) (GDP) 15.. < 2-1>. 1981 180 174 96.5%.. 1995 1996 1997. 1997 1998 129%.. 1),,,,,,,, (BP(2011)). 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 3
< 표 2-1> 국내석유수급구조변화 1981 183 178 174 13 180 2 3 96.5 1991 399 413 408 111 425 21 70 96.1 1996 722 721 724 231 721 42 158 100.4 1997 873 872 911 190 794 46 231 114.8 1998 819 826 865 179 670 46 297 129.0 1999 874 873 911 192 720 49 298 126.6 2000 894 890 927 210 743 46 306 124.8 2001 859 860 907 205 744 46 295 122.0 2002 791 787 858 229 763 46 239 112.5 2003 805 783 841 220 763 53 209 110.2 2004 826 827 886 195 752 58 236 117.8 2005 843 852 923 179 761 56 263 121.3 2006 889 878 950 192 766 54 289 124.1 2007 873 882 956 209 795 51 292 120.2 2008 865 866 939 225 761 51 334 123.4 2009 835 838 913 268 778 45 331 117.2 2010 872 872 939 277 795 49 342 118.2 2000 110%.,. 2004 118%, 2005 120%. 2008 120% 4
2009 117%, 2010 118%., 2000,,. 2000.. 1997 1998 (< 2-2> ). 1981 180 1997 794 9.7%. 1998 15.6% 670. 2000,,. 2004. 1998 2007 1.9% 1981 1997 9.7% 7.8%p. 2008. 2007 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 5
795 1997 1 2008 761. 2010 794 2007., 1981 2010 8.8%, 9%. 4.7% 4.4% 5.3% 1981 4.4% 21.7% 2010 3.7% 17.0%.,, 1980 1980. 1981 2010 1.3%, 2010 8.3%. LPG 1981 2010 11.1%. 1981 2.8% 2010 13.2%. 1981 2010 10.1%, 11.4% 41.7%. 6
< 표 2-2> 국내석유제품소비추이 1981 1991 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6.0 7.9 39.0 94.4 5.0 5.0 20.6 2.2 180.1 (3.3) (4.4) (21.7) (52.4) (2.8) (2.8) (11.4) (1.2) (100.0) 28.7 25.6 114.5 126.9 12.7 43.1 65.7 7.4 424.7 (6.8) (6.0) (27.0) (29.9) (3.0) (10.2) (15.5) (1.7) (100.0) 71.4 85.0 166.8 164.7 19.3 71.6 194.9 20.1 793.9 (9.0) (10.7) (21.0) (20.8) (2.4) (9.0) (24.6) (2.5) (100.0) 61.1 61.5 120.4 110.6 17.3 68.0 213.9 17.6 670.3 (9.1) (9.2) (18.0) (16.5) (2.6) (10.1) (31.9) (2.6) (100.0) 63.9 76.9 126.1 120.6 18.4 77.0 218.9 17.9 719.7 (8.9) (10.7) (17.5) (16.8) (2.6) (10.7) (30.4) (2.5) (100.0) 62.4 69.9 129.4 129.7 18.2 84.7 229.0 19.2 742.6 (8.4) (9.4) (17.4) (17.5) (2.5) (11.4) (30.8) (2.6) (100.0) 62.7 61.7 132.2 128.1 20.1 84.4 233.3 21.3 743.7 (8.4) (8.3) (17.8) (17.2) (2.7) (11.3) (31.4) (2.9) (100.0) 64.1 58.5 138.0 121.5 20.1 91.4 245.3 24.0 762.9 (8.4) (7.7) (18.1) (15.9) (2.6) (12.0) (32.2) (3.1) (100.0) 60.5 52.9 145.4 115.8 20.6 88.6 252.4 26.8 762.9 (7.9) (6.9) (19.1) (15.2) (2.7) (11.6) (33.1) (3.5) (100.0) 58.2 43.1 143.8 105.0 21.2 88.4 262.9 29.8 752.3 (7.7) (5.7) (19.1) (14.0) (2.8) (11.8) (34.9) (4.0) (100.0) 59.6 39.4 142.5 100.5 25.1 91.7 273.3 29.1 761.1 (7.8) (5.2) (18.7) (13.2) (3.3) (12.0) (35.9) (3.8) (100.0) 59.9 31.5 142.4 96.9 25.2 93.5 287.0 29.2 765.5 (7.8) (4.1) (18.6) (12.7) (3.3) (12.2) (37.5) (3.8) (100.0) 62.5 26.2 145.3 92.8 26.1 97.1 316.9 28.0 794.9 (7.9) (3.3) (18.3) (11.7) (3.3) (12.2) (39.9) (3.5) (100.0) 62.9 27.7 134.5 70.0 25.0 101.9 311.4 27.2 760.6 (8.3) (3.6) (17.7) (9.2) (3.3) (13.4) (40.9) (3.6) (100.0) 65.9 26.0 132.3 69.4 26.3 106.3 322.6 29.7 778.5 (8.5) (3.3) (17.0) (8.9) (3.4) (13.7) (41.4) (3.8) (100.0) 68.9 29.4 134.7 65.5 28.2 105.2 331.7 30.9 794.5 (8.7) (3.7) (17.0) (8.3) (3.5) (13.2) (41.7) (3.9) (100.0) 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 7
< 표 2-3> 기간별석유제품소비증가율 '81-'10 8.8 4.7 4.4-1.3 6.1 11.1 10.1 9.6 5.3 '81-'97 16.7 16.1 9.5 3.5 8.8 18.2 15.1 14.9 9.7 '98-'07 0.3-9.0 2.1-1.9 4.7 4.0 4.5 5.3 1.9 '08-'10 3.1 2.0 0.0-2.3 4.0 1.1 2.1 4.3 1.5 1964 ( SK ) 3.5 b/d. ( ) 0.5 b/d, 1966 ( GS ) 6 b/d. 1971 ( SK ) 4, 27 b/d. 1970 1976 ( S-OIL). 1980 64 b/d 1991 100 b/d. 1997 1996 200 b/d 2010 285.5 b/d. 8
SK 111.5 b/d, GS 77 b/d, S-Oil 58 b/d, 39 b/d. < 표 2-4> 국내정제시설용량 (2011년 1월기준 ) CDU 2,721,500 VDU 476,500 Coking 19,000 Thermal operation - Catalytic cracking 212,000 Catalytic reforming 266,470 Catalytic hydrocracking 305,500 b/cd Catalytic hydrotreating 1,245,210 Alkylation 28,600 Pol./Dim. - Aromatics 127,855 Isomerization - Lubes 46,140 Oxygenates 9,270 Hydrogen MMcf/cd 995.5 Coke 1,200 ton/cd Sulfur 3,971 Asphalt b/cd 44,297 Oil & Gas Journal 2011 1 272.2 b/d. 2) 2) Barrel Per Calender Day(BPCD) Barrel Per Stream Day(BPSD) 0.95 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 9
21.2 b/d, 30.6 b/d 51.8 b/d. ( ) 124.5 b/d.. LPG, LSR,,. Pre-flash Pre-flash. Pre-flash LPG. Pre-flash, 15 ~25 b/d. (AR) (VGO) (VR). (350 ). 0.90. 10
.. ( ).,. LPG,, (H2S) (mercaptan) (disulfide). LPG,.. - 90~95%. 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 11
(,, LGO),,.,. 1990. (reformate).. (SR reforming) (CCR reforming).,.., LPG. 12
MTBE C4 (raffinate) (butylene) (iso-butane). (vacuum gas oil).. 2000. GS 2007 6.1 b/d 2011 5 6 b/d 21.5 b/d. GS 27.9%. 2011 9 5.2 b/d 12 b/d 30.8%. SK 17.6 b/d S-Oil 14.8 b/d., 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 13
. GS 2013 5.3 b/d, 26.8 b/d 34.8%. SK (RFCC) 2013 19.2 b/d 17.2%. < 표 2-5> 국내정유사별정제시설고도화현황 (2011 년 9 월기준 ) 17.6 b/d 21.5 b/d 14.8 b/d 12.0 b/d 16.0% 27.9% 25.5% 30.8% (1.6b/d, 2013 ) (5.3 b/d, 2013 ) - - 1981 172 2010 870 5.., (1981~2010 ) API 34 14
, API 30~34 ( ) API 30 ( ).,. (%) 1981 39.6 45.1 86.8 171.5 1991 238.3 40.8 108.1 387.2 1997 514.5 203.2 155.7 873.4 1998 496.3 184.2 138.6 819.1 1999 526.8 185.5 161.8 874.1 2000 544.0 178.6 171.4 893.9 2001 527.3 157.8 174.3 859.4 2002 502.7 116.3 172.1 791.0 2003 476.0 129.2 199.6 804.8 2004 477.4 139.8 208.5 825.8 2005 482.2 163.1 197.9 843.2 2006 497.1 176.0 215.7 888.8 2007 518.6 182.5 171.4 872.5 2008 487.3 177.0 200.6 864.9 2009 473.6 183.9 177.6 835.1 2010 513.9 170.7 187.9 872.4 < 표 2-6> 유질별원유수입량 '81-'10 9.2 4.7 2.7 5.8 '81-'97 17.4 9.9 3.7 10.7 '98-'07 0.5-0.1 2.4 0.7 '08-'10 2.7-1.8-3.2 0.4 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 15
, 1981 1997 17.4% 10.7%. 1998 2007 0.5% 0.7%. API 34.., 2008 0.4%... 1981 174 2010 939. 1981 1997 10.8%. 1998 16
. 2000 2003. 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 17
< 표 2-7> 국내석유제품생산추이 1981 6.2 8.2 40.6 85.5 5.4 4.1 21.5 2.4 173.8 (3.6) (4.7) (23.4) (49.2) (3.1) (2.3) (12.3) (1.4) (100.0) 1991 28.5 13.6 127.3 148.2 17.6 12.7 53.0 7.3 408.2 (7.0) (3.3) (31.2) (36.3) (4.3) (3.1) (13.0) (1.8) (100.0) 1997 78.6 71.9 264.2 238.1 42.4 20.9 154.3 26.9 897.3 (8.8) (8.0) (29.4) (26.5) (4.7) (2.3) (17.2) (3.0) (100.0) 1998 76.0 62.5 232.5 210.1 63.8 27.5 153.8 25.2 864.8 (8.8) (7.2) (26.9) (24.3) (7.4) (3.2) (17.8) (2.9) (100.0) 1999 75.2 90.5 218.7 240.6 53.1 30.2 164.4 24.7 897.4 (8.4) (10.1) (24.4) (26.8) (5.9) (3.4) (18.3) (2.8) (100.0) 2000 76.2 87.8 228.0 230.5 59.6 34.9 167.0 27.8 911.8 (8.4) (9.6) (25.0) (25.3) (6.5) (3.8) (18.3) (3.0) (100.0) 2001 76.5 74.8 218.9 225.6 65.3 39.4 162.7 29.7 907.3 (8.4) (8.2) (24.1) (24.9) (7.2) (4.3) (17.9) (3.3) (100.0) 2002 76.9 61.6 207.7 189.1 67.7 40.5 163.9 37.0 844.6 (9.1) (7.3) (24.6) (22.4) (8.0) (4.8) (19.4) (4.4) (100.0) 2003 73.0 63.3 202.7 204.0 55.1 38.1 148.9 41.1 826.2 (8.8) (7.7) (24.5) (24.7) (6.7) (4.6) (18.0) (5.0) (100.0) 2004 75.5 49.4 212.5 202.0 76.6 38.6 167.8 63.9 886.4 (8.5) (5.6) (24.0) (22.8) (8.6) (4.4) (18.9) (7.2) (100.0) 2005 73.8 43.3 231.0 211.1 85.3 37.3 176.4 64.7 922.9 (8.0) (4.7) (25.0) (22.9) (9.2) (4.0) (19.1) (7.0) (100.0) 2006 79.7 40.4 238.4 207.4 95.3 36.0 183.1 69.8 950.0 (8.4) (4.3) (25.1) (21.8) (10.0) (3.8) (19.3) (7.4) (100.0) 2007 78.2 28.4 253.2 184.2 106.1 34.0 196.8 75.1 955.9 (8.2) (3.0) (26.5) (19.3) (11.1) (3.6) (20.6) (7.9) (100.0) 2008 92.9 30.9 264.5 150.6 108.4 34.5 173.7 83.2 938.8 (9.9) (3.3) (28.2) (16.0) (11.5) (3.7) (18.5) (8.9) (100.0) 2009 108.7 32.5 261.7 124.6 102.6 35.1 159.1 88.3 912.7 (11.9) (3.6) (28.7) (13.7) (11.2) (3.8) (17.4) (9.7) (100.0) 2010 111.8 38.7 268.4 126.2 105.8 32.6 169.7 85.7 938.9 (11.9) (4.1) (28.6) (13.4) (11.3) (3.5) (18.1) (9.1) (100.0) 2004 18
. 2007 2008 2008 2009. 2010 2.9%. < 표 2-8> 기간별연평균석유제품생산증가율 '81-'10 10.5 5.5 6.7 1.3 10.8 7.5 7.4 13.2 6.0 '81-'97 17.2 14.6 12.4 6.6 13.7 10.8 13.1 16.4 10.8 '98-'07 0.3-7.6 0.9-1.3 5.2 2.1 2.5 11.5 1.0 '08-'10 6.4 7.8 0.5-5.7-0.8-1.9-0.8 1.0 0.0,,, LPG,,. 10.8% 10.5% (6%). 1981 3.1% 3.6% 2010 11.3% 11.9%.. 1981 12.3%, 2010 18.1% 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 19
. LPG 5% 7.5%.,. 1981 23.4%, 2010 28.6%. 2000. 1981 4.7% 1999 10.1%, 1990 2010 4%. 1980. 1981 49.2%. 2010 13.4%. -C 90%. 1990 (,, -C ). 20
.,, < 표 2-9> 단위원유 (1 배럴 ) 투입당석유제품생산량 1981 0.035 0.046 0.228 0.480 0.030 0.023 0.120 0.013 0.975 1991 0.069 0.033 0.308 0.359 0.043 0.031 0.129 0.018 0.989 1992 0.063 0.057 0.299 0.351 0.041 0.029 0.128 0.020 0.988 1993 0.076 0.059 0.309 0.348 0.037 0.026 0.120 0.018 0.993 1994 0.090 0.058 0.301 0.350 0.047 0.026 0.121 0.020 1.014 1995 0.096 0.066 0.287 0.332 0.055 0.025 0.140 0.018 1.020 1996 0.098 0.071 0.300 0.298 0.054 0.022 0.143 0.018 1.005 1997 0.090 0.082 0.303 0.273 0.049 0.024 0.177 0.031 1.029 1998 0.092 0.076 0.282 0.254 0.077 0.033 0.186 0.030 1.031 1999 0.086 0.104 0.251 0.276 0.061 0.035 0.188 0.028 1.028 2000 0.086 0.099 0.256 0.259 0.067 0.039 0.188 0.031 1.024 2001 0.089 0.087 0.254 0.262 0.076 0.046 0.189 0.035 1.038 2002 0.098 0.078 0.264 0.240 0.086 0.051 0.208 0.047 1.073 2003 0.093 0.081 0.259 0.261 0.070 0.049 0.190 0.052 1.055 2004 0.091 0.060 0.257 0.244 0.093 0.047 0.203 0.077 1.072 2005 0.087 0.051 0.271 0.248 0.100 0.044 0.207 0.076 1.083 2006 0.091 0.046 0.271 0.236 0.109 0.041 0.208 0.080 1.081 2007 0.089 0.032 0.287 0.209 0.120 0.038 0.223 0.085 1.084 2008 0.107 0.036 0.306 0.174 0.125 0.040 0.201 0.096 1.084 2009 0.130 0.039 0.312 0.149 0.122 0.042 0.190 0.105 1.088 2010 0.128 0.044 0.308 0.145 0.121 0.037 0.195 0.098 1.076 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 21
,.. 1 1981 0.480, 1991 0.359. 1998 2003 2010 0.145. 1981 0.035 0.030 2010 0.128 0.121 29 4.., 1 1994 1.. 2010 1.076. 1981 3.1 2010 341.8. 1981~1997 31%, 22
. 1998 2007 0.2%. 2008 2010 0.8%.,,. 2000 5~6% 2009 12.1%, 2010 11.5%, 2005 20%. 2010 38.3%. 2010 9.4%. 1990 2000. 1990,. 2000 10% 2010 7.5%. 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 23
< 표 2-10> 석유제품수출추이 1981 1991 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 3.1 (0.0) (22.8) (30.8) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (44.4) (2.0) (100.0) 1.0 0.0 20.7 37.9 3.1 1.3 5.6 0.1 69.7 (1.4) (0.0) (29.6) (54.4) (4.5) (1.9) (8.1) (0.1) (100.0) 10.2 10.3 93.7 50.2 19.9 4.6 36.9 5.2 231.1 (4.4) (4.4) (40.6) (21.7) (8.6) (2.0) (16.0) (2.3) (100.0) 15.6 7.0 109.2 60.2 42.8 50.5 44.8 6.5 296.7 (5.3) (2.3) (36.8) (20.3) (14.4) (17.0) (15.1) (2.2) (100.0) 11.3 15.0 88.4 82.4 34.3 13.6 46.2 6.7 297.9 (3.8) (5.0) (29.7) (27.7) (11.5) (4.6) (15.5) (2.3) (100.0) 14.9 19.9 96.7 72.2 37.7 8.1 48.8 8.1 306.3 (4.9) (6.5) (31.6) (23.6) (12.3) (2.7) (15.9) (2.6) (100.0) 16.2 18.0 90.4 67.0 39.5 4.8 51.2 7.8 295.0 (5.5) (6.1) (30.7) (22.7) (13.4) (1.6) (17.4) (2.7) (100.0) 15.5 10.2 76.2 35.0 42.0 2.9 44.9 12.3 239.1 (6.5) (4.3) (31.9) (14.6) (17.6) (1.2) (18.8) (5.1) (100.0) 13.5 13.1 60.8 45.8 27.7 2.9 31.0 14.2 209.1 (6.5) (6.3) (29.1) (21.9) (13.2) (1.4) (14.8) (6.8) (100.0) 18.3 7.7 68.0 45.5 45.5 1.0 31.2 18.3 235.5 (7.8) (3.3) (28.9) (19.3) (19.3) (0.4) (13.2) (7.8) (100.0) 14.5 4.5 85.9 56.1 54.5 0.7 25.8 20.7 262.6 (5.5) (1.7) (32.7) (21.3) (20.8) (0.3) (9.8) (7.9) (100.0) 19.9 4.8 91.5 58.3 62.4 0.8 28.0 23.4 289.1 (6.9) (1.6) (31.7) (20.2) (21.6) (0.3) (9.7) (8.1) (100.0) 15.3 1.3 103.0 42.7 72.4 0.5 29.4 27.5 292.1 (5.3) (0.4) (35.3) (14.6) (24.8) (0.2) (10.1) (9.4) (100.0) 30.9 2.4 130.9 35.2 76.9 0.4 22.9 34.2 333.8 (9.3) (0.7) (39.2) (10.5) (23.0) (0.1) (6.9) (10.2) (100.0) 40.2 5.4 125.5 25.4 69.8 0.1 26.6 37.9 330.9 (12.1) (1.6) (37.9) (7.7) (21.1) (0.0) (8.0) (11.5) (100.0) 39.3 6.5 130.8 25.6 71.4 0.9 32.1 35.2 341.8 (11.5) (1.9) (38.3) (7.5) (20.9) (0.3) (9.4) (10.3) (100.0) 24
1990 1990. 2008,.. 1990 2000.. 2007 1 0.5%.., 1981 11.8% 2010 68.1%.. LPG. 1990, 2010. LPG 1981 7.1% 제 2 장국내석유제품수급구조분석 25
2010 25.2%. < 표 2-11> 석유제품수입추이 1981 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.5 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.0 13.2 0.0 0.0 (1.0) (80.1) 0.0 (7.1) (11.8) 0.0 (100.0) 1991 0.0 9.8 10.8 34.2 0.0 30.3 25.5 0.1 110.0 0.0 (8.9) (9.8) (31.1) (0.0) (27.5) (23.2) (0.1) (100.0) 1997 0.0 15.8 3.1 26.8 3.6 57.2 79.3 4.3 185.8 0.0 (8.5) (1.7) (14.4) (1.9) (30.8) (42.7) (2.3) (100.0) 1998 0.2 5.1 2.2 12.9 1.2 49.1 105.1 3.5 175.9 (0.1) (2.9) (1.2) (7.3) (0.7) (27.9) (59.8) (2.0) (100.0) 1999 0.4 2.7 2.3 16.5 3.8 57.7 101.1 0.0 184.5 (0.2) (1.5) (1.3) (8.9) (2.1) (31.3) (54.8) 0.0 (100.0) 2000 0.7 6.9 2.8 25.1 1.7 55.8 111.3 0.0 204.3 (0.4) (3.4) (1.4) (12.3) (0.8) (27.3) (54.5) (0.0) (100.0) 2001 2.1 5.3 6.7 22.3 0.3 48.1 119.7 0.2 204.8 (1.0) (2.6) (3.3) (10.9) (0.2) (23.5) (58.5) (0.1) (100.0) 2002 4.0 6.9 12.9 23.7 2.8 56.2 121.9 0.1 228.6 (1.8) (3.0) (5.7) (10.4) (1.2) (24.6) (53.3) (0.0) (100.0) 2003 2.1 6.6 11.1 13.8 3.5 50.8 132.0 0.0 219.9 (0.9) (3.0) (5.1) (6.3) (1.6) (23.1) (60.0) (0.0) (100.0) 2004 1.2 1.7 4.3 8.3 0.2 47.9 131.4 0.1 195.1 (0.6) (0.9) (2.2) (4.2) (0.1) (24.5) (67.3) (0.1) (100.0) 2005 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.0 0.0 49.7 123.3 0.0 179.4 (0.0) (0.2) (1.1) (2.2) (0.0) (27.7) (68.7) (0.0) (100.0) 2006 0.0 0.3 1.6 8.7 0.0 54.0 127.0 0.0 191.6 0.0 (0.1) (0.8) (4.6) (0.0) (28.2) (66.3) (0.0) (100.0) 2007 0.0 0.5 0.8 5.9 0.0 58.2 143.8 0.0 209.1 0.0 (0.2) (0.4) (2.8) (0.0) (27.8) (68.7) 0.0 (100.0) 2008 0.0 0.4 0.4 7.2 0.3 63.0 153.4 0.0 224.6 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) (3.2) (0.1) (28.1) (68.3) 0.0 (100.0) 2009 0.0 0.1 0.8 19.9 0.0 66.2 180.8 0.4 268.2 0.0 (0.0) (0.3) (7.4) (0.0) (24.7) (67.4) (0.2) (100.0) 2010 0.0 0.3 0.8 17.5 0.0 69.6 188.6 0.0 276.8 0.0 (0.1) (0.3) (6.3) (0.0) (25.2) (68.1) (0.0) (100.0) 26
KEEI-LEDS 3). (bottom-up),,,,,. 4) [ 그림 3-1] 장기에너지수요전망모형의구조 3) KEEI-LEDS: KEEI Long-Term Energy Demand System 4) (2009.2) 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 27
(activity),,.,, 2 1 1. 1. 2010 795 2030 957 0.9%. 2010 2015 1.5%, 2015 2020 1.4%, 2020 2030 0.4%. 2020,,.., 2030..,. 2020 0.6%, 0.1% 28
. LPG. < 표 3-1> 국내석유제품수요전망 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (%) 10-15 15-20 20-30 68.9 73.2 76.2 77.4 77.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 29.4 25.8 24.2 22.3 20.3-2.6-1.2-1.7 134.7 138.6 142.9 144.5 143.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2-1.9 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5-1.9 1.5 0.9 62.1 56.5 60.9 64.6 66.8-1.9 1.5 0.9 28.2 32.7 37.9 42.5 46.5 3.0 3.0 2.1 45.8 46.6 49.2 49.7 49.6 0.3 1.1 0.1 59.3 66.1 71.8 75.4 77.7 2.2 1.7 0.8 331.8 379.7 412.1 420.0 426.4 2.7 1.7 0.3 30.9 35.5 39.7 42.6 44.8 2.8 2.2 1.2 794.6 857.6 918.2 942.4 956.6 1.5 1.4 0.4,. 2020 3% 2020 2.1%.. 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 29
, 2015 2015.. 2015, 2030 1%.., 2030. 2010. 85%,,.. 30
85% ( 1) < 3-2>. 85% 953.5. (< 3-1>) < 3-3> 2030. < 표 3-2> 국내석유제품별생산전망 ( 가동률 85% 적용 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 111.8 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 38.7 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.3 268.4 272.6 272.6 272.6 272.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 122.5 124.4 124.4 124.4 124.4 105.8 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 15.8 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 169.7 172.4 172.4 172.4 172.4 85.7 87.1 87.1 87.1 87.1 938.9 953.5 953.5 953.5 953.5 85% 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 31
2025 11. 2030 3. 2030.. 2030. 2030 36.5. 2010 9.3 2030 18.9. 2030 128.8. -C 2030. -C 2030 57.6,. 2020 77.6 2030 60.9., LPG 85%. LPG 2030 1/3.. 2030 32
. 2010 162 2030 254. < 표 3-3> 석유제품별수급밸런스전망 ( 가동률 85% 적용 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 42.9 40.3 37.3 36.1 36.5 9.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 18.9 133.7 134.0 129.7 128.1 128.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0-0.8-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.9 60.4 67.9 63.5 59.8 57.6 77.6 74.7 69.6 64.9 60.9-30.0-30.5-33.1-33.6-33.6-42.5-49.0-54.7-58.3-60.6-162.1-207.3-239.8-247.7-254.0 54.9 51.6 47.4 44.5 42.2 144.3 95.8 35.3 11.0-3.1 ( 2) (< 3-4> ). 2 2020 2010. 2025 2010. 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 33
2 2015 76.3%, 2020 81.7%, 2025 2030 83.9% 85.2%. 2030. 20. < 표 3-4> 국내석유제품별생산전망 ( 내수기준 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 111.8 102.1 109.3 112.2 113.9 38.7 35.3 37.8 38.8 39.4 268.4 245.2 262.5 269.4 273.4 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 122.5 111.9 119.8 123.0 124.8 105.8 96.6 103.4 106.2 107.8 15.8 14.5 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.8 15.3 16.4 16.9 17.1 169.7 155.0 166.0 170.4 172.9 85.7 78.3 83.8 86.1 87.4 938.9 857.6 918.2 942.4 956.6 80.5 76.3 81.7 83.9 85.2 1 (< 3-5> ). 2,, 34
, B-C, 2030. < 표 3-5> 석유제품별수급밸런스전망 ( 내수기준 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 42.9 28.9 33.1 34.8 36.9 9.3 9.6 13.6 16.5 19.1 133.7 106.6 119.6 124.9 129.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.9-0.9 60.4 55.4 58.9 58.4 58.0 77.6 63.9 65.6 63.7 61.3-30.0-32.1-33.7-33.8-33.5-42.5-50.7-55.4-58.5-60.6-162.1-224.7-246.2-249.7-253.4 54.9 42.8 44.2 43.5 42.5 144.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0, 2030 130. 2030 37. -C 2030 61 58. LPG 2. LPG 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 35
162 253, LPG 73 94. ( 3) 2010 (72%).,. < 표 3-6> 국내석유제품별생산전망 ( 정유사내수점유율기준 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 111.8 74.8 80.1 82.2 83.4 38.7 25.9 27.7 28.4 28.9 268.4 179.5 192.2 197.3 200.2 3.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 C 122.5 81.9 87.7 90.0 91.4 105.8 70.8 75.7 77.7 78.9 LPG 15.8 10.6 11.3 11.6 11.8 16.8 11.2 12.0 12.4 12.5 169.7 113.5 121.5 124.7 126.6 85.7 57.3 61.4 63.0 64.0 938.9 628.0 672.3 690.1 700.5 (%) 80.5 55.9 59.9 61.4 62.4 36
3 < 3-6> 2030 701 2010 238., 2030 62.4%. < 표 3-7> 석유제품별수급밸런스전망 ( 정유사내수점유율기준 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 42.9 1.6 3.8 4.8 6.4 9.3 0.1 3.5 6.1 8.5 133.7 41.0 49.3 52.8 56.5 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.0-1.1 60.4 25.4 26.8 25.5 24.6 77.6 38.0 37.9 35.3 32.4-30.0-36.0-37.8-38.0-37.8-42.5-54.8-59.8-63.0-65.1-162.1-266.2-290.6-295.3-299.7 54.9 21.9 21.7 20.5 19.1 144.3-229.6-245.8-252.3-256.1 3 < 3-7>.,,,. 제 3 장국내석유제품수급밸런스전망 37
2010. 2010 43 2030 6, 2010 134 2030 57. -C., 2010 162 2030 300, LPG 2010 73 2030 103., 2030,,,,., LPG.. 38
. 2009 (refining capacity) 32.2%, 3.. 5)., (< 4-1> ). 2009 173 29,977 b/d, 24,876 b/d. 2009 25 25, Sinopec(China 5) 2030 6 b/d ((BP(2010), GlobalData(2011)). 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 39
Petroleum & Chemical Corporation). < 표 4-1> 아시아태평양지역정제현황 2008 2009 2009. 2009.. (ADB) 2010 12 8.8% 2010 GDP 2011 4 9%., 2010 GDP 10.3%, 2011 9.5%. 2010 GDP 8.6%, 2011 8% 40
.... Facts Global Energy(FGE) 2010 1,287 b/d 4.1%, 2011 2.4%(932 b/d), 2012 3.2%(674 b/d) 2020 1% ([ 4-1] ). ([ 4-2] ). [ 그림 4-1] 아시아태평양석유수요전망 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 41
[ 그림 4-2] 세계및아태지역석유수요증가추이및전망 2010 10.3% GDP 890 b/d(10.8%) 9.12 b/d. 6) 2010 35%,,,. 2010, 6) 2004 825 b/d. 42
, (ethylene). 2009 9 2010 60% 6.. 2011 2010 5.6%. 2011 GDP 2010. 7),,, LPG. 2010. GDP 12 5 (2011 ~2015 ),. 2010 2020 4.6 b/d( 4.2%) 13.7 b/d, 2020 2030 2.2 b/d( 1.5%) 15.9 b/d. 5,571 b/d 1, 3,297.6 b/d 2, 2,170.2 b/d 3. 7) 2010. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 43
< 표 4-2> 중국의석유제품수요전망 (2009-2030) 2009 670.0 925.5 1,556.4 407.1 2,806.3 872.7 990.1 8.228.1 2010 691.9 1,039.4 1,682.3 468.1 3,148.8 902.2 1,185.4 9,118.1 2011 721.1 1,116.0 1,768.6 491.4 3,348.1 927.3 1,255.1 9,627.6 2012 734.2 1,241.0 1,887.0 515.6 3,493.7 955.0 1,306.1 10.132.7 2015 788.0 1,372.1 2,254.2 594.3 3,955.0 1,057.2 1,468.7 11,489.6 2020 911.7 1,670.2 2,702.1 725.7 4,845.6 1,155.6 1,719.0 13,729.9 2025 1,006.5 1,920.2 2,965.6 796.8 5,145.3 1,169.7 1,816.7 14,820.9 2030 1,054.8 2,170.2 3,297.6 838.4 5,571.3 1,187.6 1,830.7 15,941.8 2010 4 7~8, 1.4%. 2011 (Tohoku)., FGE(2011) 9.7GW 1.4 b/d. (Tokyo Electric Power Co; TEPCO) 2010, (LNG) 44
. 140 b/d 90 b/d. 2011. 7.1% 935 b/d, 2012.. (Basic Energy Plan). 2011, LNG.. 2011, 20 1.5%.,. < 4-3>. 2020 2010 1.03 b/d, 2030 2020 314 b/d. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 45
< 표 4-3> 일본의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) 2009 498.3 766.4 992.3 548.2 839.3 466.0 260.2 4,370.7 2010 453.6 817.6 1,006.2 550.8 835.2 466.8 250.7 4,380.9 2011 440.0 776.1 935.0 542.0 837.0 633.0 245.0 4,408.1 2012 430.0 781.0 935.0 520.0 827.0 563.0 232.0 4,288.1 2015 400.0 701.0 850.0 530.0 732.0 340.0 206.4 3,759.5 2020 350.0 601.0 770.0 520.0 651.0 270.0 185.1 3,347.2 2025 300.0 601.0 750.0 522.7 631.0 250.0 185.1 3,239.7 2030 295.0 551.0 700.0 525.6 551.0 230.0 180.0 3,032.7 2009 5.7% 2010 8.6%. 2010 1.1% 3.05 b/d. 2009 4 2010 3 26%, 2010 4 2011 2 30%.. 2010 6.9%, LPG 8.4%. 2010 10% 21%. 8) 8) Reliances Industries Ltd KG-D6 2010, 46
2008 2011. 2011 4.8%, 2012 3.5%. 2010 6. 2010 2011 (Panipat) (cracker).. LPG. (Reliances industries) KG-D6,. < 4-4>, 2010 2030. LPG 2010 ~2020 3.7% 2020 ~2030 2.8%.. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 47
< 표 4-4> 인도의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) 2009 413.7 273.0 293.0 296.7 1,139.4 260.8 337.0 3,013.6 2010 448.3 245.0 326.0 298.0 1,217.7 206.7 303.7 3,045.5 2011 477.3 275.8 340.0 308.0 1,272.5 207.7 309.9 3,191.2 2012 502.7 275.8 353.6 315.6 1,326.6 207.6 322.4 3,304.2 2015 571.3 320.9 393.9 329.2 1,467.1 198.6 348.0 3,629.0 2020 623.6 442.7 461.9 486.4 1,790.7 195.2 393.9 4,394.3 2025 734.1 439.8 530.7 544.8 2,206.2 160.1 475.2 5,090.9 2030 866.7 437.7 619.2 601.2 2,619.2 142.9 513.2 5,800.1 (hub) 2008~2009 2010 14.5%., 2010 12%. 2011 7%. (bunkering) 2011,.. 2010 66%, 17%. 1 96% 48
,. 5 13%,. 10 2.5%.. 5. (Shell Eastern Petrochemical), (ExxonMobil). 2015 286 b/d, (feedstock) LPG. 2010 19.5 b/d 61.3b/d 2030 27 b/d 77.2b/d. (Changi Airport) 2030. < 4-5>, 2010 ~2020 2.6% 2020 ~2030 0.3%. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 49
< 표 4-5> 싱가포르의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) 2009 14.8 161.1 19.4 84.8 60.9 665.8 6.3 1,013.1 2010 14.7 191.1 19.5 94.8 61.3 746.7 6.4 1,134.6 2011 14.6 241.1 20.3 101.2 62.4 769.2 6.6 1,215.5 2012 14.5 261.1 21.1 107.2 63.4 793.8 6.8 1,268.5 2015 14.3 286.1 23.5 127.0 66.8 872.0 9.4 1,397.1 2020 15.0 291.1 25.0 136.0 71.5 917.0 7.2 1,462.8 2025 16.3 291.2 26.0 140.5 74.8 925.1 7.0 1,481.0 2030 17.0 296.3 27.0 145.2 77.2 932.6 6.9 1,502.2 2009 2010 10%., 2010 986 b/d 4.7%. 2010,,, 9.8%, 4.1%, 11.4%. 7%,. LPG 9.4% (FGE(2011)). 2011 2010 5.4%. 6.7% 7.5%, LPG 5%. 50
. 2012 ~2030 3~4% 0.7%. 2010~2020 1.4% 2020~2030 0.1%.,., 2020 LPG 2.1% 1.4%. 2030 1% (< 4-6> ). < 표 4-6> 대만의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) 2009 72.5 366.7 167.2 43.2 94.3 128.8 69.3 942.0 2010 65.7 392.2 168.6 47.4 98.2 143.5 70.5 986.1 2011 68.1 413.8 172.8 51.2 104.7 154.3 74.1 1,039.0 2012 70.7 412.7 173.0 52.7 106.8 157.4 75.9 1,049.3 2015 77.4 446.3 177.8 56.1 114.5 190.5 78.0 1,110.6 2020 81.1 450.0 189.8 60.3 119.5 152.5 79.7 1,132.8 2025 84.2 445.1 193.5 64.3 122.5 160.3 80.6 1,150.5 2030 85.4 435.4 192.7 67.0 123.1 164.7 79.9 1,148.3 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 51
2008 2009 4.6%, 2010 5.9%. 2010 2.1%. 2009 1.1%.. 2006 LPG LPG 102 b/d 84 b/d., LPG. LPG.,.. 2010 9) 90%, 40%. 2013 40% 2015. 2010 12, 2011 3 (Jakarta) 2011 (Java) (Bali), 2012 (Sumatra) 9) "RON 88" USD 0.52. 52
.. LPG LPG. PT Perusahaan Listrik Negra 10,000MW 5. ( ),. < 표 4-7> 인도네시아의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) 2009 105.5 61.1 392.4 127.4 433.6 95.4 21.8 1,237.1 2010 143.0 61.3 425.7 120.0 397.8 92.3 22.5 1,262.7 2011 151.0 62.0 436.3 119.0 377.7 74.2 23.3 1,243.4 2012 159.6 63.2 441.6 117.3 366.7 54.1 24.1 1,226.6 2015 188.6 70.1 465.8 112.5 367.6 48.8 26.9 1,280.3 2020 215.2 78.4 518.8 117.4 419.7 58.8 31.7 1,440.1 2025 234.4 81.8 562.8 120.9 449.3 62.1 37.0 1,548.3 2030 254.9 92.2 611.2 123.4 472.9 65.7 43.4 1,663.7 < 4-7>, 2011 ~2012, 2013 ~2015 2030. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 53
,, LPG. 2010 GDP 4.4%. 2010 7, 9.9%. 0.3%. 9.2%,. 2011 2010.,, LPG, 5.4%. 2015. 2015. 10) 5. LPG LPG 10) LNG 2015. 54
., 2010 ~2020 3.5%, 2020 ~2030 2.7%. < 표 4-8> 파키스탄의석유제품수요전망 (2009~2030) 2009 5.4 0.2 54.8 21.4 47.4 8.7 6.0 143.8 2010 5.1 0.2 54.9 19.8 46.0 7.4 6.2 139.5 2011 5.1 0.2 54.7 19.9 46.3 7.4 6.2 139.8 2012 5.2 0.2 54.8 20.0 46.9 7.4 6.3 140.8 2015 5.3 0.2 55.3 20.2 48.7 7.3 6.3 143.4 2020 5.3 0.2 56.2 20.7 51.3 7.3 6.5 147.4 2025 5.5 0.2 57.7 21.1 53.7 7.2 6.6 152.0 2030 5.6 0.2 59.1 21.6 55.8 7.1 6.8 156.2 7 [ 4-3]. 2030 3,, 31%, 18%, 13%. LPG, 10%. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 55
[ 그림 4-3] 아태지역석유제품별수요비율,. 10. (Golden Age) (Dark Age). 2002 2004 2008. 2008 56
,. 2008. 2009 2.2 b/d, 2010 1.9 b/d. (cracking) $4.9.. 2009 [ 4-4]. 2004~2009 8%, ( 30%) ( 15~20%) 50%. [ 그림 4-4] 아시아태평양지역주요국가별정제능력현황 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 57
2011 ~2015 ([ 4-5] ).. 2011~2014 (1.9 b/d) (2.7 b/d),.?.. [ 그림 4-5] 중기아시아태평양석유정제능력전망 58
[ 4-6] (CDU)., 3,.,.,,,. FGE(2011) 2015 62%, 29%, 6%, 3%. [ 그림 4-6] 상압증류정제시설확대를주도할석유기업유형 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 59
2010. 2010 678 b/d 80%. Sinopec Qilu 2010 3 160 b/d 380 b/d, Sinopec Jinling 270 b/d 360 b/d. CNPC/Petrochina 200 b/d Qinzhou (< -1> ). Sinopec, CNPC/Petrochina.. 2010 Petrochina 200 b/d Qinzhou Guangxi, CNOOC 240 b/d Huizhou. 2011 2010, < -2>., Sinopec 40 b/d Qingdao Changling 30 b/d Cangzhou. 2011~2015 3.1 b/d, 0.5 b/d 2.6 b/d. 2016 2020 60
2.2 b/d. 2011 2020 750 b/d 4.8 b/d.. 2.7 b/d, (VDU) 960 b/d, 36 b/d. 2011 1 4.2 b/d. 3 11 3 Cosmo Oil (205 b/d) JX Group (135 b/d), (235 b/d). Cosmo Oil JX Group. Cosmo Oil 163 b/d 47k b/d, 130 b/d 28 b/d. JX 372 b/d 20 b/d.. 2010 7 5 (METI), 10% 2014 3 13%. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 61
. JX Group,, 209 b/d, Fuji Oil 49 b/d. Showa Shell Oil Group 2011 9, 112 b/d, Idemitsu 93 b/d. JX Group 186 b/d. < -4>, < -5>, < -6> 2014. 2014. 2011 4,200 b/d, 2014 390.6 b/d. 558.0 b/d,. 2011 2014. (HDC) (Coker).. 62
2011 3.85 b/d. 13 (,,,,,, ) 2010 4 1 BS-IV ( IV). 2010 10 1 BS-III( III)., Indian Oil(IOCL) Bharat Petroleum(BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum(HPCL). 2008. 70. HPCL 2011 1 125 b/d (FCC; Fluid Catalytic Cracker). HPCL 28 b/d FCC III IV 20 b/d. FCC 2010 11. 12. Vizag 14 b/d 32 b/d 2 FCC 2 2011 1. BPCL 2011 2 120 b/d. Oman Oil Company 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 63
26% 24. < -6> 2011, 3.85 b/d, VDU, FCC RFCC, Coker, HDC. 2020, 0.98 b/d, VDU 0.42 b/d, Coker 0.4 b/d, FCC RFCC 0.27 b/d, HDC 0.13 (< -7> ).. 3,. (ExxonMobil) (Jurong Island) 580 b/d, Pulau Bukom 449 b/d. (SPC) 50 50 275.5 b/d. SPC 2009 PetroChina. < -9>, 1.3 b/d, 0.21 b/d, 0.13 b/d.,, Coker, FCC RFCC, HDC 64
. 2011 4,.. SPC 10ppm,. 2012 IV, 2014~15 V,. Jurong Aromatics Corp.(JAC) 110 b/d 20. JAC 100 BP. JAC 2014. Hin Leong 300~ 500kb/d. < -10>, 2014 2 2016 4 110 b/d, 500 b/d. 2011 1 1.25 b/d, CPC 205 b/d, 280 b/d, 187 b/d. CPC,,, 70%. FPCC 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 65
Yunlin 504 b/d 90%. 2005 CPC. 11) CPC Taoyuan 2008 28 b/d 28 b/d, CPC Dalin 2009 18.7 b/d, CPC Kaoshiung 2010 16.8 b/d. CPC Dalin 2. CPC 2015, 2009 6 (EPA). 2011 4, 2017.. CPC. < -13>. 2013 4 Formosa Petroleum 46.7 b/d, 2017 4 CPC 279.9 b/d, 2019 Formosa Petroleum 180 b/d. 2015 4 CPC 205.3 b/d 301.3 b/d. 11) 2011 7 10ppm, 2012 1 10ppm. 66
7, 2 1,122 b/d. Pertamina. Pertamina. 3.8 b/d Cepu. 6 b/d Bojonegoro PT Tri Wahana Universal(TWU) 2009 Cepu(Banyu Urip). TPPI 100 b/d Tuban Pertamina LSWR. LPG,,, Pertamina. Pertamina 2. LSWR Cilacap RFCC. Pertamina PT Petramit 20:80. Pertamina,. Pertamina RFCC 2011 2013. Plaju/Musi FCC. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 67
Pertamina 2017. Cilacap Plaju 3. Balikpapan 50 b/d. Dumai/Sei Pakning 200 b/d. Balongan 200kb/d. Balongan, 300 b/d Pertamina.. 7., IOCL Koyali 40 b/d. Panipat. IOCL 2011 3 Koyali., IOCL CPCL ( ) 2011 4., 2010 4 BS-IV. CPCL CDU/VDU 2012., Essar Oil Vadinar I- (80 b/d) 2012 68
1. II- 2017,. Essar II- 320 b/d 160 b/d. HPCL Bhatinda (180 b/d) 2012 1 MRPL (64 b/d) 2012 3. MRPL III-. CDU/VDU FCC,, (DHDT),., BPCL 1.8 b/d 2.4 b/d. BPCL III IV. 2012 4. Paradeep IOCL (300 b/d) 2016 4. IOCL DCU FCC,,. 2011 1 295 b/d. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 69
.... Byco Petroleum Pakistan Ltd.( Bosicor Pakistan Ltd.) 120 b/d Balochistan. Byco 2012 1 30 b/d.. Pakistan Refinery Ltd.(PRL) 1 8200 Karachi 2012. Multan Pak Arab Refinery Co(PARCO) -II. 3 b/d 2012. Attock Refinery Ltd. Rawalpindi 11.5 b/d. 2014.. 70
PARCO (IPIC) MOU 2007 11. 2008,, PARCO IPIC 2009 1... < -17>, < -18>. 2016 391.5 b/d.. 7,. 2020,. CDU, 500 b/d CDU. 2020, 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 71
CDU CDU. 2008 2008~2009, 2010. 2010 1,287 b/d 26,166 b/d.,. LPG,, 2005,,, (< 4-9> ). 2020. 2015 2.5% 29.683 b/d, 2020 2.3% 33,163 b/d. LPG 2020 1 b/d, LPG,, 2015. 2015 72
(= - ) 420 b/d 2015~2020 280 b/d. 2015 1,159 b/d, 50% 584 b/d. 2020,, LPG,,,. < 표 4-9> 아시아태평양석유제품수급균형 1,813 3,003 5,488 2,623 9,173 2,066 1,966 26,132 1,065 1,657 922 493 1,034 2,244 439 7,854 183 490 1,370 772 2,018 1,179 239 6,250 2,696 4,170 5,040 2,343 8,188 3,124 2,166 27,726 1,953 3,139 5,896 2,755 9,754 2,115 2,131 27,744 1,113 1,703 1,004 504 1,064 2,217 430 8,036 159 449 1,424 746 1,981 1,155 220 6,135 2,907 4,394 5,474 2,512 8,836 3,174 2,341 29,638 2,177 3,489 6,388 2,949 10,799 2,250 2,391 30,443 1,166 1,742 1,162 587 1,211 2,228 473 8,569 171 413 1,444 653 1,730 1,199 231 5,841 3,171 4,818 6,103 2,883 10,279 3,276 2,633 33,163 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 73
2020 LPG,,. LPG,,, 10 LPG (< 4-10> ). LPG,, LPG.,,, LPG, FGE(2011) 3 2 b/d, 49 b/d, 28 b/d, 36 b/d LPG.. 2020,,,, 2020 474 b/d, 360 b/d, 310 b/d, 179 b/d. 2020 (bunkering port) 694 b/d 188 b/d (1,065 b/d) 88%.,,,,,,,. 7 2020 97%, 98%. 74
2012 2020 < 표 4-10> 아태지역국가별및제품별순수입 ( 수출 ) 전망 (26) (3) 26 29 131 2 17 177 32 86 (190) 76 (98) 244 188 338 171 (205) (308) (109) (388) (173) 21 (991) 101 (11) 238 16 90 (111) (2) 321 305 470 (40) (20) (140) 50 44 669 (38) (39) 120 (22) (18) 6 (7) 3 5 (22) 17 7 72 127 (5) 201 27 (4) 32 16 60 (5) (1) 125 (38) 149 (144) (109) (274) 694 (61) 217 202 416 (178) (247) (423) 32 (29) 227 20 276 (114) (51) (224) 66 20 8 45 52 (33) (35) (111) (62) (10) (155) 34-53 9 102 25 17 242 42 3 71 163 236 170 9 694 882 1,168 (449) (279) (984) 1,065 200 1,604 (22) (2) 37 41 168 1 22 246 (49) 108 (203) 105 (163) 122 176 95 228 (132) (316) (32) (182) (224) 54 (603) 125 (15) 295 (4) 149 (72) 5 482 250 360-10 (40) - 44 624 (28) (32) 193 (12) 10 4 (6) 129 4 (51) 4 (21) 5 119 (15) 46 44 17 43 31 82 (23) (1) 193 (36) 179 (137) (80) (261) 810 (59) 416 227 474 (208) (240) (408) 54 (28) (129) 37 310 (113) (44) (209) 75 26 82 92 108 (32) (33) (94) (68) (10) (37) 67-58 16 109 21 22 293 54 5 97 198 314 211 14 893 995 1,328 (283) (66) (519) 1,029 243 2,728 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 75
2010 8.5 b/d. 2010 120 b/d, 60 b/d... (100 b/d ). RFCC FCC.. 2010. 2011 2015 2.6 b/d 2015 11.0 b/d, 11.1 b/d. 150 b/d,,. 2016 2020 2.2 b/d. 2020 13.2 b/d 13.3 b/d. 100 b/d,, LPG. 76
2010 350 b/d 0.2%( 350 b/d). 2011 3 11 2. 2011 5.4% 340 b/d...,., 2010 14.4%(59 b/d). LPG 2020 360 b/d 250 b/d.. 2011 43 b/d 355 b/d. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 77
. 2010. 2010 4 1 13 BS-IV 2010 10 1 BS-III. ( ). LPG LPG 71% 128 b/d. 2010 (3.94 b/d) 40%, 15%, LPG 11% 8%. 2010 1.18 b/d 19%. 62%, Reliance(RIL) SEF,. RIL Hess,.,,.. LPG LPG. 5 75%. 78
. 2010 (= + ) 751 b/d, 640 b/d 85%. 2010 10%. 2012 694 b/d, 2015 773 b/d, 2020 810 b/d.,.,,,,,,,,..,,,.. 10 2020.. 2015 4 b/d.. 2010 80, 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 79
2011 1. 2015 170 b/d. 2010 876 b/d 70%, 8.3%. 7 FPCC #2 504 b/d Yunlin 2010 65%. GDP 10% 4.7%. 2010. 2003 Yunlin, 2010. 2011~2020 1%.. 2020 75~80%. 2020 82 b/d, 2012 8 b/d. CPC Dalin 75 b/d RFCC. RFCC 10ppm 80
. Dalin RFCC. 2010, 81.5% 82.1%.,, LPG LPG 62 b/d. 2008 LPG. LPG LPG LPG LPG ( UAE) LPG.,.. (LSWR) 2020. LPG 2020, 2015. 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 81
Pertamina Cilacap RFCC 2013 Plaju FCC. 2012 238 b/d, 2015 244 b/d, 2020 295 b/d. 12) 2010 120 b/d, 82 b/d, 21 b/d, 92%.,... 2010. 2010 67%( 7% ), 100 b/d PARCO 1.., (CNG) 13) 12) Pertamina 3 2. FGE(2011) Cilacap Plaju RFCC/FCC. 82
. CNG LPG,. 2016 250 b/d Khalifa. 2011 90 b/d. 2012 120 b/d Boscior. Boscior 2013 55 b/d. 2016 Khalifa 5~10 b/d.. 2015 130~135 b/d. LNG, 2014~15 LNG. 2020. 2012 Bosicor 2014 Attock. 2016, Khalifa 13) 200~250kg/ 제 4 장아태지역석유수급전망 83
. LNG. LPG CNG., 2020 120 b/d 90%,, 50 b/d. 84
...... 14 150 b/d,,,,, 6 272.2 b/d., 47.6 b/d 14, 29.7 b/d 25.7 b/d. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 85
12.6 b/d, 8.6 b/d, 7.9 b/d. < 표 5-1> 주요국가의정제시설현황 17,869 129 139 62 44 13 6,806 54 126 4 11 3 5,431 40 136 51 8 1 4,730 30 158 59 33 6 4,000 21 190 39 24 8 2,722 6 476 79 35 51 2,418 15 161 73 23 13 2,337 17 137 48 19 18 2,080 7 297 64 15 19 1,908 13 147 62 39-1,902 17 112 37 28 12 1,844 13 142 58 30 6 1,766 10 177 86 44 4 1,540 6 257 126 63 -.,,,. 14. 86
. 14),. (RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage). (absolute advantage) (comparative advantage) (David Ricardo).. (1) : : : : : 14). 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 87
1 1.. 2010 2,855 b/d 1,500 b/d 14. OECD,, 9, OECD,, 5. 15) 2010 699.8 608.1. 296.9 3. 192.5 126.3., 716 1 419.1. 200... 2009 2010 2 15) UN OECD (SITC(Standard International Trade Classification) Revision 3 Section 3). 88
. 2010 14 WTO UN 12. RCA 2009 1.5, 2010 2.1. 2009 1.0 2010 1.5. RCA 2009 3.8, 2010 5.7, RCA 2009 3.6. 2009 2.0, 2009 1.1, 2010 1.7. RCA 1.. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 89
< 표 5-2> 주요국가의석유제품 RCA 지수 2009 2010 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.4 3.8 5.7 0.4 0.5 3.6-1.5 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0-0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.5. (conversion). (complexity).,. 1960 (Wilbur L. Nelson) (Nelson Index) 90
. 16), ( ) ( )..,.. 넬슨지수 Qi i ( b/d), i=0 Q0 (distillation). i. i (complexity factor). i i. i.. 100,000b/d $1, 16) Oil & Gas Journal 3 14 p. 189; 9 26 p. 216; 6 19 p. 109 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 91
$10 (=$1 /100,000). 20,000b/d $1.2, $60 (=$1.2 /20,000). 촉매분해 6 (=$60/$10)... 1998 Oil & Gas Journal. < 5-3>,, 감압증류 2.0,, 열분해 2.75. < 표 5-3> 개별정제시설의복잡성요소수치 (Distillation) 1.0 (Vacuum Distillation) 2.0 (Thermal Processes) 2.75 (Coking) 6.0 (Catalytic Cracking) 6.0 (Alkylation) 10.0 Gary, Handwerk & Kaiser(2007) - Baton Rouge 92
. - Baton Rouge 12, ( ) < 5-4>. < 표 5-4> 엑슨 - 모빌 Baton Rouge 시설의넬슨지수 501,000 100 1 1.0 227,000 45.3 2 0.91 112,500 22.5 6 1.20 229,000 45.7 6 2.74 75,500 15.1 5 0.76 24,000 4.8 6 0.29 333,500 66.6 1.7 1.13 140,000 27.9 10 3.07 9,500 1.9 9 0.17 7,000 1.4 10 0.14 12,000 2.4 1 0.02 11.43 Baton Rouge 501 b/d, 227 b/d, 229 b/d. i 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 93
i ( ). Gary, Handwerk & Kaiser(2007) Oil & Gas Journal ( ). Baton Rouge 11.43. 1.5 b/d 14. [ 5-1] Oil & Gas Journal. 17) (10.9), (9.7), (8.9), (8.8). 6.3 14 9. (5.6), (5.0), (3.9), (3.4), (2.5). 14 9.. 10 17) Oil & Gas Journal(2011) 94
. [ 그림 5-1] 넬슨지수를통한정제경쟁력비교,... 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 95
...,,..,,.,. 2020,,.,., LPG,, LPG 2020 96
.. LPG 18). LPG. 2000.,. 19),.. 18) 1, 2, 3 2030. 19) C LNG. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 97
., 2020,. LPG 2020..,,.. LPG LPG. 10,000MW 2020... LNG 2015. 2020 98
. LPG LPG. < 5-5> 2020. LPG.,, 2030. < 표 5-5> 2012~2020 년아태지역국가별초과수요예상제품 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 99
. 2000 2010 75%.,. 1990 2007 16%. 2008 5.2% 2010 11.7%. 2000. 5%, 2009 10.7%.. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008 2010 100
-.., 2000. 8 10..,., -...,. 2011, -EU FTA., -EU FTA 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 101
. OECD.. (EV).,.....,.,,,,..,,. 102
...,. LPG, 2020., LPG 20. LPG. LPG 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 103
. LPG 20%....,.,,,... 2000,,. (HDC). [ 5-2], 2002 2025 HDC 5, 104
. HDC (RCC) 5 HDC 1~2, 2010 2 2025 4. HDC RCC 2012~2025 HDC. HDC [ 그림 5-2] 정제마진전망 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 105
< 5-7> (RCC) 2011 1 7.8%, (reforming) 9.8%., (HDC) 11.2%. HDC. 20%, 25% HDC., 45.8%.. 100%,,,,, 70%.,,, 30%.. 106
LPG. 10%.., OECD,..... 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 107
< 표 5-6> 주요국의원유정제능력대비고도화설비비율 0.2 32.0 19.8 9.3 78.8-8.6 2.6 2.7 7.9 7.0 6.1 13.7 1.1 40.0 0.4 20.9 17.5 3.8 106.0 2.3 12.6 1.3 4.1 6.3-7.8 9.8 11.2 45.8 10.2 14.4 16.8 8.4 83.3 19.2 13.8 12.3 13.0 53.3 6.6 5.0 9.3 6.4 23.7 0.5 26.5 1.3-14.9 6.7 25.1 18.7 10.7 70.0 7.9 21.3 15.8 3.9 72.3 6.1 25.2 19.2 2.0 71.5 24.7 18.1-60.1 4. 20) 20).. 108
.... SK (Petrovietnam) BSR 21). 7800., (hub). AOC(Aramco Overseas Company),,, 21) BSR(Binh Son Refining & Petrocemical) Petrovietnam, Petrovietnam. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 109
. 2020.,,, BTX, P-X, VCM, SM.,..,.,,.. PP 100%,. 110
..,.. 22). (O&M)...,,. (E&P)., IT,,,,. 22) 2009 GS 4 7. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 111
. (forward linkage). < 표 5-7> 국내정제설비건설에대한제도적지원 112
( ) < 5-8>. 10%. 2011 12 31, 2013 12 31.. (FTA). FTA -, -, -EFTA, 23) -, 24) -, -EU, -., FTA. FTA 25) - - FTA. FTA FTA., FTA -, -, -GCC, 26) -, 23) 4 :,,, 24) 10 :,,,,,,,,, 25) 2003 2004 11. 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 113
-, -, -. GCC FTA. FTA. (FDI: Foreign Direct Investment).,.,,. 27),,...,, 26) GCC(Gulf Cooperation Council):, UAE,,,, 6 27) (2010), pp.155-156. 114
...,,,.,.. (PF) PF.., PF.., PF 제 5 장석유산업하류부문전략 115
.,.. 116
2.,.. 2010 20 1.5% 2020 30 0.4%. 2015 76%, 2020 82%, 2030 85%. ( 27% ) 2030 60%.. 2030 85%, (37 ), (129 ), B-C (58 ) (254 ) LPG(94 ). 제 6 장결론 117
2010 30 72 b/d, 66%.,. 2020,,,,,, 8 b/d,. 2020,,, LPG,.,,. 2012 2020, 449 b/d 283 b/d, 279 b/d 66 b/d, 984 b/d 519 b/d. LPG.,.. 150 b/d 14., (RCA: Revealed 118
Comparative Advantage), (Nelson). 50 b/d. 14 19 b/d,. RCA 2009 2010 1.5 2.1. RCA 1, RCA,, 4. 14 9..,,.,,..,,.,,. 제 6 장결론 119
... LPG. (NOC).. 19%. (HDU)..... 120
..,.... (FTA). (GCC) FTA...... 제 6 장결론 121
122
참고문헌 123
124
< 부표 -1> 중국정제시설현황 (2010 ~ 2011) 50.0 14.3-13.0 - - - - 6.0-16.7 1,692.4 623.4 261.8 460.8 237.2 57.4 103.2 7.6 4.0 618.0 68.0 27.7 43.7 1,046.0 319.1 106.8 296.0 134.0 20.0 134.6 4.9-553.0 65.0 9.0 9.7 1,658.0 659.9 262.7 291.6 278.0 8.0 157.6 5.4 2.0 880.8-14.5 38.4 - - - - - - - - - 1.0-100.0 15.7 60.5 - - - 3.0-48.0-0.7 125 570.0 174.0 114.0 178.0-41.4 31.0 3.6 159.4 2.0 6.9
126 < 부표 -1: 계속 > 중국정제시설현황 (2010 ~ 2011) CNPC/Petrochina CNOOC Northwest 605.0 160.4 26.7 190.0 24.0 6.0 42.0 1.4 121.0 10.4 10.0 North 254.0 110.7 17.8 97.6-8.0 20.0-74.2-18.4 South 220.0 80.0-70.0 44.0-44.0-72.0 - - Northeast 1,975.0 687.8 222.6 608.0 250.0 28.0 197.4 7.1 5.0 629.6 100.0 30.9 31.9 Southwest 21.6 2.3-7.0 - - - - - 0.4 West 506.0 190.2 97.9 111.4 52.0 9.0 43.4 2.2 185.0 16.9 19.3 North 240.0 11.8 17.8 8.0-26.0 - - - - 33.5 South 240.0 120.0 74.8 24.0 72.0-40.0 3.2-40.0 40.0 - - Lower Yangtze 160.0 - - - - - - - - - - Local Northwest 376.0 98.3 0.4 132.0 4.0-36.0 - - 36.0 - - North 1,275.6 103.0 115.6 179.0-56.7-2.0 33.0-37.8 South 109.0 - - - - - - - - - - Lower Yangtze 33.0 13.1 17.8 - - - - - - - - Northeast 229.0 16.4 35.6 4.8 36.0 - - - 40.0 0.8 0.2 Southwest 22.0 - - - - - West 3.0 1.7-1.4 - - - - - - - Grand Total 11,385.6 3,402.1 1,432.9 2,672.6 1,131.2 260.5 879.2 37.4 11.0 3,496.0 273.0 113.4 267.2
< 부표 -2> 확정및예정 된중국정제시설 127 2011 1 - - - 20.0 28.0 40.0-2011 3 40.0 - - - - - 2011 4 200.0 - - - - - 2011 4 (100.0) - - - - - 2011 4 20.0 15.0 - - - - 2011 4 55.0-52.0-16.0 - - - 2011 4 30.0 8.9 24.0-6.0 32.0-2011 4 40.0 30.0 - - - - - 2011 4 - - - 40.8-2012 1 - - - 80.0-2012 2 (12.0) (7.4) - (6.0) - - - 2012 2 200.0 80.0 - - - 62.0-2012 3 (30.0) - - - - - 2012 3 80.0-40.0-20.0 44.0 40.0-2012 4 40.0 - - - - - 2012 4 100.0 - - - - - 2012 4 (100.0) - - - - -
128 < 부표 -2: 계속 > 확정및예정 된중국정제시설 2015 1 200.0 - - 34.0 - - 2015 1 300.0 120.0 - - - - - 2015 2 200.0 90.0 - - - - - 2015 4 (100.0) - - - - - 2015 4 40.0 - - - - - 2015 4 300.0 - - - - - 2016 1 90.0 90.0-16.0-54.0 40.0-2016 2 300.0 65.0 - - - 54.0-80.0-2016 4 400.0 180.0 - - - - - 2016 4 (50.0) - - - - - 2017 2 200.0 90.0 - - - - - - - - 2017 2 80.0 - - - 104.0-2017 4 (50.0) - - - - - 2017 4 200.0 90.0 - - - - - 2018 1 240.0 100.0 - - - - -
< 부표 -2: 계속 > 확정및예정 된중국정제시설 129 2012 4 200.0 90.0 - - - - - 2012 4 60.0 - - - - - - 2013 1 70.0 - - - 12.0 - - 2013 1 76.0 17.8 24.0 - - - 2013 1 100.0 - - 64.0 24.0 44.0 60.0 2013 1 30.0 - - 48.0-31.2-2013 2 240.0 100.0 10.7 44.0 48.0 20.0 50.0 70.0-8.0 2013 4 (100.0) - - - - - 2014 1 40.0 - - - - - 2014 2 200.0 90.0 - - - - - 2014 2 240.0 80.0 24.9 48.0 - - - 2014 4 (100.0) - - - - - 2018 2 100.0 70.0 - - - - - 2018 4 (50.0) - - - - - 2019 1 200.0 80.0 - - - - - 2019 4 (50.0) - - - - - 2020 3 400.0 180.0 - - - - - 2020 4 (50.0) - - - - - 2020 4 200.0 - - - - - 4,719.0 1,617.7 77.3 242.0 214.0 180.0 550.8 261.2 60.0 8.0