Executive Cotton Update U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain February 2019 www.cottoninc.com 거시경제개요 : 국제통화기금 (IMF) 은 4 월과 10 월에예측에대한포괄적인수정내용을발표함. 1 월과 7 월에는업데이트가이루어짐. 지난달업데이트내용을보면, 2018 년전세계 GDP 성장추정치는.7% 로변동이없었고, 2019 년과 2020 년에대한전망은하락하였음 (2019 년.7% 에서.5% 로, 2020 년.7% 에서.6% 로 ). 2019 년과 2020 년에대한하향수정은지난 10 월이미하락할것이라전망이있은후나온것임. 가장최근하락의이유로미국-중국의무역분쟁의영향, 독일의둔화, 이탈리아의부채관련우려, 그리고터키경제위축이이전예측보다더심각할것들이언급되고있음. IMF 는위험요소들이경기하락에무게를두고있다라고강조함. 주요위험요소로는무역의긴장상태가더확대되고, 재정상황은타이트해지며, 유럽연합으로부터영국의 no-deal 엑시트의가능성, 그리고중국의경제둔화가현재보다더심해질것들이있음. 중국정부는지난달 2018 년전체 GDP 성장추정치를발표하였음. 이발표자료에따르면 2018 년중국경제성장 (6.6%) 은 1990 년이후최저성장을보였음. 중국정부는또한 2017 년경제성장추정치를더하락시켰음 (6.9% 에서 6.8% 로 ). 미국과의무역분쟁이도움이되지는못했지만수출이외중국경제를확대하기위한도전임. 중국정부의비공식분야전반에대한대출관련조사는그림자금융시스템 (shadow banking system) 으로부터의신용거래통로를규제하고개별기업들의차입 / 투자를위축시키는것으로여겨지고있음. 미국은, 노동시장은일자리증가는강세를보이고있고임금상승은가속화되면서지속적으로강세신호를보내고있음. 그러나, 다른지표는경고신호를보내고있음. 그예로제조업상승둔화와주택판매약세등이있음. 미래에대한우려는금융시장변동성을통해서분명해졌고연준 (Federal Reserve) 에주목하고있음. 2018 년 4 번의금리인상이후, 지난 1 월말연준의장은제한된인플레이션위험그리고성장둔화전망이향후금리인상가능성을고려할때중앙은행이조심스럽게접근하도록해야한다고밝혔음. 이외에도, 연준은금융위기이후나왔던양적완화프로그램의일부로써누적된자산을해제하는처리를늦출수도있다라고시사하였음. 최근미국성장에영향을주는또다른요인은 12 월 22 일시작해서 1 월 25 일종료된 ( 사상최장기간 ) 정부의일부셧다운이었음. 셧다운으로인해많은경제지표의발표가연기되면서, 그비용을수량화하는업무가도전을받고있음. 초당적인의회예산처는 1 분기의 GDP 성장률이셧다운이없었을때보다 0.4 포인트더하락할것으로추정하고있음. 고용 : 1 월미국경제의일자리는 04,000 개증가할것으로추정됨. 이는 개월연속월간일자리가증가한것이며, 사상최장으로일자리가지속적으로증가한것임을의미함. 이는또한지난해 2 월이후월간일자리가가장크게증가한것임을나타냄. 기존추정치에대한수정은혼조세를보였음. 11 월수치는 +176,000 개에서 +196,000 개로증가하였고 12 월수치는 +12,000 개에서 +222,000 개로감소하였음. 이와같은수정이있은후, 지난 12 개월동안의월평균일자리증가수는 24,000 개임. 지난해같은기간동안, 평균증가수는 17,000 개였음. 고용가속에도불구하고, 실업률은.9% 에서 4.0% 로상승하면서 2 개월연속상승하였음. 실업률은직업을원하는사람수 ( 노동력 ) 에대한직업이없는사람수의비율임. 지난 20 년동안완만하게하향추세를보인후, 전체인구에비례한노동력의규모 ( 노동참여율로알려짐 ) 는완만한감소추세를보였음 (67% 선수준에서 62% 선수준으로 ). 여름이후, 노동참여율의추세가반전되었음. 비록최근반전이장기추세에비해일시적인것이지만, 미국경제에서잠재적인근로자의수가크게증가할것임을의미함. 8 월한달만보면, 1.4 백만명이상의미국인이구직활동을한것으로추정됨. 경제가더많은근로자를가지고있을때더큰경제성장이이루어짐. 소비자신뢰와지출 : 1 월 Conference Board 의소비자신뢰지수는 개월연속하락하였음. 1 월지수 120.2 는 2017 년 7 월이후최저치임. 그러나, 1 월지수가비록하락하였지만장기평균인약 보다는아주높은수준임 정부셧다운으로인해, 소비자지출데이터의발표는연기되었고이수치들을언제이용가능할지도명확하지않음. 소비자가격과수입실적 : 의류에대한소비자가격지수 (CPI) 로측정되는소매의류가격의가장최근자료인 12 월자료를보면전월대비 (+0.0%) 와전년대비 (+0.02%) 와는사실상변동이없었음. 무역자료는셧다운으로인해업데이트가되지않았음. U.S. Macroeconomic & Cotton Supply Chain Charts Macroeconomic Indicators Industry & Textiles Retail Currencies Cotton GDP Growth Leading Indicators Industrial Production Consumer Spending Weighted Index U.S. Balance Sheet Interest Rates Consumer Conf. Inventory/Shipments Inventory/Sales Asia Fiber Prices ISM Indices Employment U.S. Yarn Exports Consumer Prices The Americas Housing Polyester PPI Europe
Executive Cotton Update U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators & Cotton Prices February 2019 5 1 6 Q1 : 2018 Q2 : 2018 Q : 2018 (GDP) 2.5% 2.%.8%.4% 2.2% 4.2%.4% % 1 1 5 1 6 11 12 1 ISM 54.8 55.8 58.2 56.9 58.8 54. 56.6 ISM 56.8 56.9 59.1 59.5 60.4 58.0 56.7 107.1 116.8 1.1 1.6 16.4 126.6 120.2 Conference Board 214.7 198.5 210.5 21.7 196.0 222.0 04.0 1,000 4.9% 4.4%.8%.8%.7%.9% 4.0% 5 1 6 11 12 1 0.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.% 2.4% 10 2.4% 2.4%.0%.0%.1% 2.8% 2.7% 101.6 104.8 111.5 111.7 111.9 111.6 111.8 Conference Board 11.5 12.1 12. 12.4 1. 1.2 1.2, 5. 5.5 5. 5.2 5. 5.2 5.2, 12 10 11 5 1 6 12 12 12 104.6 104.5 109.0 109.6 109.1 109.6 109.9, 2002= PPI 107.2 107.4 106.1 105.1 98.2 97.9 98.2, 200 12 = 5 1 6 12 12 10 & ( ).2.1.0.0.0 2.9.0 (480 ) USDA 5 1 6 12 12 11 / 1.27 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.28 1.29 1. 11 5 1 6 12 12 11 2.9% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%.0% 2.8% % 2.8% 2.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% 4.1% % 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% % -0.4% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% -0.% 0.0% % 10 / 5 1 6 12 12 10 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Executive Cotton Update Daily Cotton Price and Currency Data February 2019 5 1 6 12 12 1 NY 72.1 7.6 79.6 76.2 77.4 76.9 7.1 / ICE A 80.6 8.0 88.9 85.4 86.8 85.6 82. / Cotlook 5 1 6 12 12 1 118.1 122.6 126.8 127.7 127.7 128.1 127., 1997 1 = & 6.50 6.67 6.86 6.87 6.89 6.84 6.86 / 65.22 66.87 71.12 70.9 72.50 70.54 69.74 / 111.74 110.26 111.74 111.42 11.11 11.01 108.1 / 107.4 110.88 10.15 16.2 12.1 17.65 18.90 /.22.4.84.75.70.8.72 / 1.26 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 / 17.27 18.98 19.51 20.01 20.05 20.51 19.47 / 0.71 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.79 0.79 / 0.86 0.88 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 / 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 /.2.88 5.69 5.9 5.42 5.9 5.5 /
% 10 GDP* 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 09:Q1 10:Q1 11:Q1 12:Q1 1:Q1 14:Q1 15:Q1 16:Q1 17:Q1 18:Q1 ; : U.S. Department of Commerce 8 7 10 6 5 4 2 1 0 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : U.S. Federal Reserve
Index Values over 50 Indicate Expansion Index Values over 50 Indicate Expansion 70 65 ISM Manufacturing Activity Manufacturing Employment 60 55 50 45 40 5 0 25 20 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : Institute for Supply Management 70 ISM 65 60 55 50 45 40 5 0 25 Service Sector Activity Service Sector Employment 20 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : Institute for Supply Management
(1985 = ) (2004 = ) 120 110 90 80 70 60 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : The Conference Board; Revised data 140 120 80 60 40 20 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : The Conference Board
% 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 -800-0 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : Bureau of Labor Statistics 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0.0 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 ; : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1.4 1. 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 ; : U.S. Department of Commerce 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0.5 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 ; : U.S. National Association of Realtors
% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : U.S. Federal Reserve. 1997. 2.0 / 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1. 1.2 1.1 1.0 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 ; : U.S. Department of Commerce
December 200- Million Bales US Cotton Yarn Exports 4.0.8.6.4.2.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-1 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 : 10 125 120 115 110 105 95 90 85 80 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 :, (BLS)
% % 6% 5% 4% % 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 ; : U.S. Department of Commerce 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 ; : U.S. Department of Commerce
% /.0 2.8 Department Stores Apparel/Accessory Stores 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-1 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 ; : U.S. Department of Commerce 8% 6% Total Apparel 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-1 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Same month, five years ago= January 1997 = 10 120 110 90 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 : The Federal Reserve 140 120 80 60 40 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 : oanda.com
Same month, five years ago= Same January month, 1999 five years = ago= 10 160 110 140 90 120 70 50 80 0 60Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 : Reuters 140 120 80 60 40 20 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 : Reuters
/ ( 480 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 11 12 2.4.7.8 2.8 4. 4. 16. 12.9 17.2 20.9 18.4 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7 16.6 21.0 2.7 22.7 22.9.6.5..2.. 11.2 9.2 14.9 15.8 15.0 15.0 14.8 12.6 18.2 19.1 18. 18..7.8 2.8 4. 4. 4.4 / 24.6% 0.2% 15.1% 22.5% 2.5% 24.0% : 105 Cotlook A 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18