호주축산업시장전망 2019 서울, 3 월 2019 앤드류콕스동북아시아인터내셔널비즈니스매니저
Million head 2018 년도다시돌아온가뭄 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 호주산사육두수 ( 백만두수 ) 2010: 26.6 2013: 29.3 2016: 26.8 2019f: 26.2 Source: ABS, MLA
000 tonnes cwt 2019 년생산량이줄어들예정 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 +1% -16% +8% -4% 쇠고기생산량 ( 000 톤도체중량 ) 2014: 2,554 2016: 2,101 2018: 2,294 2019f: 2,198 1,600 Source: ABS, MLA
000 head 000 head 곡물비육쇠고기증가와퀄리티의향상 1,200 1,100 1,000 940 비육우 1,127 3500 3000 2500 MSA 등급소 45% 40% 35% 30% 900 2000 25% 800 1500 20% 700 600 500 400 584 1000 500 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 15% 10% 5% 0% Year ending June MSA graded cattle MSA % of slaughter (RHS) Source: MLA
000 tonnes swt 제한적인공급으로인한수출감소 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 쇠고기수출량 ( 000 톤선적기준중량 ) 2014: 1,287 2016: 1,018 2018: 1,126 2019f: 1,055 0 일본미국한국중국기타 Source: DAWR, MLA
000 tonnes swt 2018 일본수출량 8% 증가 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 406,000 톤선적기준중량 A$2.23 Billion 316,000 톤선적기준중량 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 A$2.24 Billion +8% year-on-year +6% +8% +17% 목초사육냉장목초사육냉동곡물비육냉장곡물비육냉동 Source: DAWR, ABS
000 tonnes swt 2018 미국으로의호주산수출량 1% 감소 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: DAWR Chilled grassfed Frozen grassfed Chilled grainfed Frozen grainfed Chilled grassfed % of total (RHS)
000 tonnes swt 2018 중국으로의호주산수출량 48% 증가 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 목초사용냉장목초사육냉동곡물비육냉장곡물비육냉동 +78% year-on-year +168% +33% +99% Source: DAWR
000 tonnes swt 주요아시아지역수입량수요증가 소고기수입 (2010-2018) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - 중국일본한국동남아시아 Source: IHS Markit; 2018 is estimate based on latest available twelve months *SEA includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore
Ac/kg live weight 호주와미국소가격비교 500 450 400 Prices ranged from 250-400Ac/kg lwt 350 300 250 Prices ranged from 150-280Ac/kg lwt 200 150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Australia US Source: MLA s NLRS (Australia); USDA/Steiner Consulting Group (US). Finished cattle (steer) specifications vary between indicators.
양고기시장은많은나라의틈새시장 세계소비량 중국 미국 호주 4.5% 21.5% 37.4% 36.6% 유럽 -28 한국 0.3% 소고기돼지고기가금류양고기 Source: OECD-FAO 2018 Outlook 29.0 % 20.4 % 50.2 %
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018e 2020f 2022f 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018e 2020f 2022f 000 tonnes cwt 000 tonnes cwt 2019 년호주산생산량의감소 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 램생산량 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 머튼생산량 Source: ABS, MLA calculations/forecast
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018e 2020f 2022f 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 000 tonnes cwt 000 tonnes cwt 2019 년호주산생산량의감소 600 램생산량 530 이전의감소 2% 6% 500 400 510 490 470 +13% -7% 300 200 450 430 410-5% -2% 100 390 370 0 350 Source: ABS, MLA calculations/forecast
2019 전망요약 기후조건이가축무리의재건을제한 호주에서흔한현상 변함없는한국시장에대한자신감
왜자신이있는가? 소비자선호도 높은명성 긍정적인상황적요소들
한국쇠고기구매소비자들에게가장중요한원산지 한국소비자와글로벌소비자의차이 다른글로벌소비자들에비해한국쇠고기구매소비자들은원산지, 지속가능성, GMO/ 첨가물과같은분야를심각하게고려 다른글로벌소비자들에비해한국쇠고기구매소비자들은포장안의피, 할랄인증, 그리고팩당가격과같은분야에비교적덜예민하게반응 P A G E 18
프리미엄의요소 브랜드이미지를절대화시키는원산지 DRIVERS OF PREMIUM (ranked top to bottom) 호주산쇠고기 미국산쇠고기 뉴질랜드산쇠고기 캐나다산쇠고기 높은품질 32% The industry is environmentally sustainable The animal is well-cared for Guaranteed safe to eat More nutritious Fresh Consistent quality standards 38 46 53 50 47 47 8 11 12 26 18 21 36 31 28 30 19 18 7 8 9 17 8 9 우월성 24% The fat is nicely marbled Is the most superior beef The meat is usually tender 35 40 49 11 25 23 13 15 16 5 3 6 편의성 21% Is easy and convenient to purchase Offers a variety of cuts that suit the meals I make Is my/my family s favourite beef 62 60 72 21 40 58 12 17 13 5 4 11 저지방 9% Low in fat 32 12 14 6 저렴 -14% Cheaper 25 46 8 7 P A G E 19 BBH9. Here are some things which people have said about beef. We would like to know which of the following statements apply to beef from different countries of origin. You may choose as many or as few countries of origin as you wish. It doesn t matter if you don t buy any of them - it s your impressions we d like. Base: (n=634) Attributes are grouped according to level of co-endorsement i.e. when respondents endorse one attribute for a brand, they are likely to endorse the others in the group. In this way the attributes are linked, then the groups are given the most appropriate
소고기파워 VS. 원산지별프리미엄 프리미엄브랜드 1.2 뉴질랜드산쇠고기 1 캐나다산쇠고기 미국산쇠고기 호주산쇠고기 파워프리미엄브랜드 0.8 프리미엄 더많은돈을지불하려는의지가있는가? 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 실적이저조한브랜드 파워 소비자들은당신의브랜드를선택하는경향이있는가? 가치있는브랜드 P A G E 20
브랜드파워 (%) 0 20 Series 1 40 60 Kantar TNS Korea, 2018
소비트렌드 간편성 동물복지 & 지속가능성 육류소비상승
한국 2019 그리고그이상으로 1. 중대한시점 2. 호주산쇠고기의기회 3. 함께노력해서좋은결과전달