April. 28, 216 Fixed Income Analyst

2 3

2. 1.5 (%) (%).1.5. (%) (%) 1. 1 y 2 y 3 y 4 y 5 y 7 y 1 1 1 2 -.5 2.5 2.2 (%) 1y 3y 5y 1y (%) 1.9 1.6 1.3 1. '15Y.8 '15Y.12 '16Y.4 (%) (%) ()

Apr. 28, 216 FX Analyst

15 125 /() () 12 122 99 119 96 116 93 113 (%) (%) 9 11 15/9 15/1 15/12 16/2 16/4-5 -3-1 1 3 5-5 -3-1 1 3 5

2 (%) 12 8 (%) (-)+(-) - -2 4-4 14 16~ -6-4 -8 9/1 96/1 2/1 8/1 14/1

4 (% of GDP) 4, () 3, 2, -4-8 -12 '8 '87 '94 '1 '8 '15 1, -1, -2, -3, + /3 3/12 7/9 11/6 15/3

7 () 6 () : 5 : 5 4 3 3 1-1 -3 12/1 13/1 14/1 15/1 16/1 2 1-1 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1

15 12 () 6.65 6.59 8 62 ( ) 99 6.53 44 96 6.47 26 93 USD/CNY() 6.41 8 9 6.35 15/12 16/1 16/2 16/3 16/4-1 5/4 7/1 1/4 12/1 15/4

() 12 1 8 6 4 2 NDF() () 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1 125 12 115 11 15 1 () () ( ) 8 1,24 6 1,2 4 1,16 2 1,12-2 1,8-4 1,4-6 1, 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1

() 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1 () 4 2-2 -4 /(,) 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1 () 1,26 1,2 1,14 1,8 1,2 96 9

(%,yoy) 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 (yoy) 2% 1% % -1% -2% 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-9.4-13. (%,yoy) 215-37.5 8.3-36.2 216(~3) -27.5-5.9 (%,yoy) 215 25 216(~3) 15 8.7 5-5 -3.3-15 -11.2-13.1-15.7-25 -2.1-35 -26.7 ASEAN EU

(%,yoy) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 () PMI 13/4 14/1 14/1 15/7 55 54 53 52 51 5 49 48 47 (%,yoy) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 13/1 13/1 14/7 15/4 16/1

12 1 8 6 4 2 () ( ) 2 1-1 -2-3

Apr. 28, 216 Commodity Analyst 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 18.8% 14.% 25.3% 16.4% -7.9% 4.8% 24.4% RBOB 9.3% 17.9% 4.2% 1.2% 1.5% 25.6% 11.8% 9.4% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2% 7.2% 4.2% 19.% 12.1% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 1.4%.6% 1.% -4.1% -6.2%

5 4 3 2 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

5 45 4 35 Product Net Export 3 28 Primary Output(R) 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 13-5 13-11 14-5 14-11 15-5 15-11 3 25 2 15 1 5 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Others Singapore Rotterdam Vlissingen Boltimore Detroit - 13-5 13-11 14-5 14-11 15-5 15-11

6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ( ) 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 6 5 4 3 2 1

1 8 6 4 2 () ($/) 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12,

8 6 4 2-2 15M-3M -4 3M-Cash(R) -6 215-5 215-8 215-11 216-2 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 15M-3M 1 3M-Cash(R) 215-5 215-8 215-11 216-2 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 6 5 4 3 2 1 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) -1 215-5 215-8 215-11 216-2 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 215-5 215-8 215-11 216-2 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 215-5 215-8 215-11 216-2 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 1-1 -2-3 15M-3M -4 3M-Cash(R) -5 215-5 215-8 215-11 216-2 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% 15-4 15-6 15-8 15-1 15-12 16-2 Cu(%) Al(%) Zn(%) 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Pb(%) Ni(%) Sn(%) % 15-4 15-6 15-8 15-1 15-12 16-2

1,55 1,5 1,45 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 14-1 14-7 15-1 15-7 16-1 16-7

85 4 8 75 35 3 25 7 65 6 12-1 13-1 14-1 15-1 16-1 2 15 1 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. (bpd) 216 215 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.5 6. (bpd) 216 214 5 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 (bcf) 1,7 216 1,6 215 1,5 1,4 5 (bcf) 216 1, 215 5 8 6 4 2 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 18 17 16 15 (bpd) 14 13 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 (bpd) 216 215 5 8. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 75 7 65 6 55 5 (bcf) 216 215 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (bcf) 216 215 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

13 12 11 $/oz 1 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.4 25 2 15 1 5 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.3 85 8 75 7 65 6 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.4 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.4 18 $/oz 15 12 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.4 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.3 34 33 32 31 3 29 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.4 4 $ 35 3 25 2 15 1 15Y.4 15Y.8 15Y.12 16Y.4

Apr. 19, 216 FX Analyst 12 8 (%) (-)+(-) - 4-4 -8 9/1 96/1 2/1 8/1 14/1

18 2 (%) 152 124 96 68 4 79/1 87/5 95/9 4/1 12/5-2 -4-6 14 16~

3 18 12 8 (%) (-)+(-) - 6-6 -18 (-)+(-) -3-9/1 1/8 12/3 13/1 15/5 4-4 -8 9/1 96/1 2/1 8/1 14/1

5 7-5 -1-15 -2 ( ) -25 8/3 88/7 96/11 5/3 13/7-8 -16-24 -32 () -4 () () /1 3/7 7/1 1/7 14/1-7 -14-21 -28-35 4, () 3, 2, 1, 8 () () () 6 4-1, -2, -3, /3 3/12 7/9 11/6 15/3 2-2 99/6 2/1 6/2 9/6 12/1

16 14 5 () 3 12 1 8 6 94/1 99/1 4/1 9/1 14/1 1-1 -3-5 '7 '9 '11 '13 '15

/.DXY.% 1.549 29-8-28-216-8-26 (SEL) Price USD 96 23.6% 93.94 92 38.2% 5.% 89.793 86.47 88 61.8% 83.148 84 8 76 1.% 72.392 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 2 21 72

Apr. 28, 216 Analyst