The recent (2001-2010) changes on temperature and precipitation related to normals (1971-2000) in Korea* Kyoungmi Lee** Hee-Jeong Baek*** ChunHo Cho**** Won-Tae Kwon*****. 61 (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010). 10 0.5,. 9, 9. 97.4 mm, 7 81.7%. 7 7.,. 7, 8.,,,, 10 Abstract : This paper analyzes the recent (2001-2010) changes of temperature and precipitation in the aspect of temporal and spatial features using 61 observed station data in Korea. Annual mean temperature for the last decade in Korea increased by 0.5 over the normals (1971-2000). In particular, the minimum temperature in autumn showed highest increase. The most significant decrease in diurnal temperature range in September had a strong negative correlation with minimum temperature and precipitation in September. Annual precipitation for the last decade in Korea increased 97.4 mm over the normals. And an increase of precipitation in July accounted for 81.7 percent of that. The precipitation in July had s strong positive correlation with number of days with precipitation 50 mm in July. Maximum precipitation peak during the Changma period showed an increase in precipitation intensity, while the timing of peak during the post-changma period was about 20 days earlier. The increase of precipitation in July was largest in Jungbu region, while the that in August was relatively larger in Honam region. Key Words : climate change, temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, changes in the last decade. 100 (1906 ~2005) 0.07 /10 (IPCC, 2007), 1954~1999 * NIMR-2011-B-2( ). **, (Researcher, Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, leekm80@korea.kr) *** (Team leader, Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, heejbaek@korea.kr) **** (Director, Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, choch0704@korea.kr) ***** (Director General, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, wontk@korea.kr)
0.23 /10 (Jung et al., 2002) (, 2009a)., 10 (2001~2010) 1880, (, 2010). 1980,,,. 2001~2008 2 3 1990 3, 1916 10 6 2001 (, 2010)..., ( 2000; Choi, 2002; Jung et al., 2002;, 2004; Ryoo et al., 2004; Choi et al., 2008).,,. 1973~2007 61 ( ) 0.60 /10 (0.54 /10 ) (Choi et al., 2008). Jung et al. (2002) 1954~1999 12,. 1980, -5.5 (Ryoo et al., 2004). (2000).,. 1920~1999,,, (Choi, 2002), (, 2009b, 2010). (2004) 14 1941~1970 1971~2000 8 9, 2 9 8. Choi et al. (2008) 7~8 40 mm. (Houghton et al., 1996).... 10 (2001~2010) 61 1971~2000 10. 238
Figure 1. The locations and data periods of the weather stations used in this study.,,, 40 (1971~2010). 61, 1971 25, 1972 1973 3, 33 (Figure 1). 1972 1973 2000. 61. (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010),,,.. (1~365 ), 11., 1, 2 (, 1995)..,. (3~5 ), (6~8 ), (9~11 ), (12~2 ). 10 61,,,.,,, 1973~2010 t- 5%. 10 (2001~2010) 61 13.3, (1971~2000) 12.7 0.5 (Figure 2). 10 18.3, 8.2, 0.5, 0.6., 28.1 28.3 0.2. 239
Figure 2. Seasonal difference between the recent decade (2001-2010) and the past 30 years (1971-2000) for T max, T min, T ave and DTR (diurnal temperature range). 0.8, 0.7. 10 10.1, 0.1.. 0.3. 0.2, 0.1...., 9 10 0.9. 9., 9 9 (r=-0.812) (r=-0.818) (Figure 3). 1973~2010 9-0.3 /10 (p=0.062). 9 0.5 /10 (p=0.009), 9 16.5 mm/10 (p=0.278)., 9 9. Figure 4 10,,. (1.1 ) Figure 3. Correlation between the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and minimum temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in September in Korea, 1973-2010. ** p<0.001. 240
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of the difference between the recent decade (2001-2010) and the past 30 years (1971-2000) for T max, T min, T ave and DTR. 241
Table 1. Number of stations with positive or negative time trends of T max, T min, T ave and DTR Positive Negative Significant No-significant Significant No-significant T max 49 10 0 2 T min 42 16 0 3 T ave 52 8 0 1 DTR 13 15 22 11,,, 1.0.. 0.6. (, 1991), (, 2010). 10. Table 1 1973~2010, 80%.. -0.001 /, -0.012 /..,. (Mitchell, 1961). 10, 1.5.. (0.5 ),. (Table 1).., 10. (-0.001 / ), (-0.009 / ), (-0.011 / ),. 10. (1.2 ),.. (-0.2 ) (-0.3 ),,. Table 1.. 242
10. (1.5 ),.,, 1.0. Table 1 (28, 45.9%) (33, 54.1%). 36.1%. Jung et al. (2002), 1954~1999 12 ( )... 10 1,411.9 mm, 1,314.5 mm 97.4 mm(7.4%) (Figure 5a).,,, 268.4 mm, 781.2 mm, 255.8 mm, 106.5 mm 55.3%.,, 8.2 mm(3.2%), 86.7 mm(13.7%), 6.8 mm(6.8%) 4.3 mm(1.7%). 89.0%. 10 (Figure 5b). 7 79.6 mm Figure 5. Seasonal (a) and Monthly (b) difference between the recent decade (2001-2010) and the past 30 years (1971-2000) for precipitation.. 7 81.7%, 91.8%., 10 7. Choi (2002),. 1973~2010 7 50 mm 0.3 /10 (p=0.020), 7 (29.6 mm/10, p=0.065). 7 50 mm (r=0.976) (Figure 6). 7 7,. 8 9 21 mm, 5 15.7 mm. 6, 10, 11 14.1 mm, 10.3 mm, 16.0 mm. 12 4 243
5 mm. 3, 4, 10, 11. 1973~2010 4 (-12.6 mm/10, p=0.071) 7 (29.6 mm/10, p=0.065) 10% Figure 6. Correlation between precipitation and number of days with precipitation 50 mm in July in Korea, 1973-2010. ** p<0.001... Figure 7 1 1 12 31 11. 7 10, 8, 10 mm/. 7 15 mm/. 8 10, 11 mm/., 1.5, 20. 9 ~. (2002) 1979~1991 7 Figure 7. Daily precipitation of the past 30 years (1971-2000) and the recent decade (2001-2010) in Korea. 244
Figure 8 10., (429.5 mm) (235.3 mm), (223.9 mm), (206.0 mm), (203.7 mm) 200 mm. (66.3 mm), (41.7 mm), (13.0 mm), (4.3 mm). 1973~2010 1 (Table 2).,,,,,,,,, 10 (16.4%).,. 7. Figure 8. Spatial distribution of the difference between the recent decade (2001-2010) and the past 30 years (1971-2000) for precipitation. 8 1991~2001 7 8. (2004) 1941~1970 1971~2000 8 9, 8 9., (2008) 10. 100 mm,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Figure 9). 100 mm 7 133.7 mm. 7 1973~2010 49.7 mm/10 (p=0.039). 8 9, 6. 8 1973~2010 30.0 mm/10 Table 2. Number of stations with positive or negative time trends of annual and July precipitation. Positive Negative Total precipitation Significant No-significant Significant No-significant Annual 10 50 0 1 July 5 56 0 0 245
Figure 9. Monthly difference of precipitation between the recent decade (2001-2010) and the past 30 years (1971-2000) in Jungbu, Honam and Eastern coast. (p=0.094), 7. 7, 9 11 4. 7 1973~2010 30.6 mm/10 (p=0.065), 9 22.3 mm/10 (p=0.190)...,,,., 7 8~9 (, 2008). 8 (, 2003;, 2007). 7. (2005),. 7., 8. Choi and Kim (2007). (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010).,,, 10 0.5, 0.5, 0.6,. 9, 9 246
.,.,. 10., 10 97.4 mm, 86.7 mm. 7 81.7%. 7. 7. 8 20.,, 7. 100 mm 7, 8.,.,,.,., 2009a, II - : -,., 2009b, III - -,., 2010, VII - -,., 1995,,., 2010, 2010,., 2002,, 12(3): 348-351., 2008,, 43(3): 324-336., 2003, 2, 13(1): 362-365., 2004, - -, 39(6): 819-832., 2007, 8, 2007 : 488-489., 2010,, R&D 2010. 8. 23-24,., 2000, 20, 35(4): 519-528., 2005,,, 41(6): 927-942., 1991,, 27(3): 197-203. Choi, G., W.T. Kwon, K.O. Boo, and Y.M. Cha, 2008. 247
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