歯V1805-Final.PDF

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2001. 6. 11, 1990 1999 10% 1996 1999 1996 10%, 1%. 1996, 1999 1996 10%. 2000 8%, 1999. 1) ( : TOE) 1990 1996 1998 1999 1 668.0 887.0 842.6 752.6 110.3 174.4 190.3 200.0 533.6 676.9 614.0 511.0 13.

2 , % %, 1%. 1996, % %, ) ( : TOE) : BpAmoco, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, % 1996,,,. 1) J.E. Sinton & D.G. Fridley, "Hot Air and Cold Water: The Unexpected Decline in China's Energy Consumption", LBNL, Presented at the 4th China-Korea-US Economy and Environment Modeling Workshop, May

3 Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5., 1994, %. 2,,. GDP TOE/ $ TOE/ $. GDP TOE/ $(1990 ) TOE/ $ TOE ,155 1,232 1,257 1,269 GDP 10 $ TOE / GDP TOE/ $ : GDP : BpAmoco, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, (US DOE/EIA). 20 GDP % ( 7.75% ) (7.3%). LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory),.,. Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 3

2001. 6. 11,. CO2., 1990 7 4,.,.,. 1990 7 4.,.,,. 1990,. (US DOE/EIA), 2020 6.

4 ,. CO2., ,.,., ,.,,. 1990,. (US DOE/EIA), %, 4.7%. 2) ,. 2) US DOE/EIA, "International Energy Outlook",

5 Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5 2., %. CNPC(China National Petroleum Corporation) %. 11% , 17%., GDP 2% ,, GDP 10 $ 1,036 2,276 4, % TOE 806 1,394 2, % ( ) ( ) ( ) ( b/ d) ( ) (tcf) (4.3) (1,075) (0.9) (6.7) (1,810) (2.9) (10.4) (2,586) (6.4) (4.3%) (4.3%) (10.1%) ( ) (TWh) (14) (75) (147) (11.8%) CO2 TC 669 1,131 1, % / GDP TOE/ $ % CO2/ GDP TOE/ $ % : GDP : (US DOE/EIA), International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA.. LBNL Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 5

6 %, (CDM) CDM., (CDM) CDM..,, ,,., 2,,.,,., CDM,.. 6

7 Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5 Exxo n-mo bil, Royal Dutc h/s he ll, BpAmo co Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell, BpAmoco 5 (Philips Petroleum, TotalFina Elf, Marathon Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Conoco Inc.) %. BpAmoco Exxon-Mobil Al-Ghawar ( ) 40, Royal Dutch/Shell Shaybah.,,, 15% Ali al-naimi.. OPEC OPEC 24.2 b/d 6 5. OPEC OPEC / 6 4. OPEC 1.7 b/d. OPEC 7 3, Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 7

8 OPEC., PTT Petronas 3., ,000 PTT. PTT PTT 100, 20021,000., Thomas Daschle. Daschle Feinstein-Smith FERC, Dianne Feinstein Gordon Smith. Feinstein-Smith FERC 11 (just and resonable)., 8

9 Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5., (Public Utilities Commission, PUC). Chevron, 2. Chevron Richmond 225 b/d, El Segundo 260 b/d 24%., Gaz pro m Gazprom 129 bcm (billion cubic meters) 3% 133 bcm %. Gazprom Komarov., GW, GW, 5 bcm. 5 OGP.. PetroChina bcm Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 9

10 bcm, bcm., DOE NPC. (NPC) ,,, /,,,,,, /,,,, 1/3, E. On AG, RWE AG, Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG, HEW AG RWE AG. 4 10

11 Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No DM,, 3., (CEC) MW(45 MW, 49.5 MW) CEC MW 9., 9 12,,..., DOE (interstate) %.,. -, Al-Arish( ) Aqaba(). Aqaba,. Korea Ene rgy Economics Institute 11

12 O P EC OPEC. WTI Brent 5. Brent WTI, 7 Brent. 6 5 OPEC, 7 3. OPEC 3 $28/bbl OPEC basket. OPEC. OPEC 73/4. $27/bbl. ( : /Bbl) / 31 6/ 1 6/ 4 6/ 5 6/ 6 WTI Brent Dubai

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歯m1902.PDF 2002 1 28 50 PIW(Petroleum Intelligence weekly) 120 50 50,,,,,, (emerging market) 50 50 OECD 50 33 2001 50 50 8 2 Ove rsea s Ene rgy Ma rket Inte llige nce Vol 18 No 4, 9 50 2001 Nippon-Mitsubishi Anadarko

歯V1805-Final.PDF

歯V1805-Final.PDF