w» wz, 12«1y(2010) Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 12, No. 1, (2010), pp. 1~10 e x w w ³» mw»z 1 Áx ù 1 *Á 2 1 w y lw, 2 w (2009 11 19 ; 2010 3 24 ; 2010 3 24 ) A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using Dynamical Downscaling with a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Ahn, Joong-Bae 1, Jina Hur 1 * and Kyo-Moon Shim 2 1 Division of Earth Environment, Pusan National University, 30 Changjeon-dong, Keumjeong-ku, Pusan 609-735, Republic of Korea 2 National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA, Suwon, Korea (Received November 19, 2009; Revised March 24, 2010; Accepted March 24, 2010) ABSTRACT A regional climate model (RCM) can be a powerful tool to enhance spatial resolution of climate and weather information (IPCC, 2001). In this study we conducted dynamical downscaling using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a RCM in order to obtain high resolution regional agroclimate indices over the Korean Peninsula. For the purpose of obtaining detailed high resolution agroclimate indices, we first reproduced regional weather for the period of March to June, 2002-2008 with dynamic downscaling method under given lateral boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data. Normally, numerical model results have shown biases against observational results due to the uncertainties in the modelís initial conditions, physical parameterizations and our physical understanding on nature. Hence in this study, by employing a statistical method, the systematic bias in the modelís results was estimated and corrected for better reproduction of climate on high resolution. As a result of the correction, the systematic bias of the model was properly corrected and the overall spatial patterns in the simulation were well reproduced, resulting in more fine-resolution climatic structures. Based on these results, the fine-resolution agro-climate indices were estimated and presented. Compared with the indices derived from observation, the simulated indices reproduced the major and detailed spatial distributions. Our research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate on high resolution and agro-climate indices by using a proper downscaling method with a dynamical weather forecast model and a statistical correction method to minimize the model bias. Key words : Agro-climate index, Dynamical downscaling, Numerical weather prediction model, Statistical correction method I. IPCC 4 sƒ š w ù 100 l y w s³» 0.74 o Cƒ w, s y» wš w * Corresponding Author : Jina Hur( hjn586@pusan.ac.kr)
2 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 12, No. 1 ùkû. w»z y»z ƒ Á w ƒ œ ¾ zá w w e. p»z y Áü š ƒ» w z œy»w (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2001).»z y q z ƒ»z d v ƒ w. ù» w w w»z œ j w.»z w w»z d œ y d w (Ministry of Science and Technology, 1990). Yun(2007) Kim and Yun(2008) 30m ûw»z w,»z y w ƒ š. y wš w Ÿ d» œ ü mw w e w w, w. w w»z» yù»z dw» w w» ƒ w. m w d x ƒ w wš»z w ƒe w w v wz. w, ³x w v w (IPCC, 2007). w»z w» w x 200km ü w ƒ ³ y x y. ³ s³»p š w ww y v w»z œw» j w (Ministry of Science and Technology, 1990). w y x wš w»z» w p š w txwš p y š w»z x w w ³ š (IPCC, 2007; Im et al., 2008a). y x»z x w w ³ w IPCC 3 š z y w š (IPCC, 2007). y x»z x w wš»z d y ƒ, Lorenz(1975) y x»» x y w m (systematic bias) l š w (IPCC, 2007).» x w»z wš mw»z w» w w x š ƒ m w v w. wr Ahn et al.(2002) w w m m w. w»z xwš y w»z wš w. w 2002 l 2008 ¾ National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) w» x x Weather Research and Forecast Model(WRF) w w ³ w. 3km¾ w ³ l x ùkù m m mw w z x w w»z w.»z w»z w d»z w» x w»z d ƒ r. II. x»z w» w 6 NCEP/NCAR»z x WRF x» w 2002 3 1 l 7 w ³ w w. e x WRF x» l(ncar)» d x. w 27km, 9km, 3km s ƒ 3 w. x s x z ƒ š 3km w w
Ahn et al.: A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using... 3 Table 1. The summary of the regional climate model Dynamic core Center point Horizontal resolution (Vertical resolution) of Domain 1 Horizontal resolution (Vertical resolution) of Domain 2 Horizontal resolution (Vertical resolution) of Domain 3 Physical scheme ARW (Advance Research WRF) Seoul metropolitan 27 km 27 km (28 levels) 9 km 9 km (28 levels) 3 km 3 km (28 levels) Microphysics WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (Hong and Lim, 2006) Cumulus Kain-Fritsch scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1990, 1993) Planetary boundary Yonsei University scheme (Hong and Dudhia, 2003) Land surface model Noah land surface model (Ek et al., 2003) Shortwave radiation Dudhia scheme (Dudhia, 1989) Longwave radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (Mlawer et al., 1997) (Ahn et al., 2002). w x Table 1 ùkù (Ahn et al., 2009).»z x w»z s³ k» s³ k m. m mw»z x m w» z d w k q (Ahn et al., 2002).»z x w»z d»z x y w š q wš m w Ahn et al.(2002) m w. t» tx. T = correcred T + model T d +( γ T 1)T model (1)» T model T ƒƒ»z x model r, T d m, γ T d» r z l. m w w ü Ahn et al.(2002). w ³ m mw ûw»z w»z w.»z x, x, þw» x x». x w»z»z w» w70» d l d 345» d e(automatic Weather Station; w AWS) l d w y w. III. š 3.1.»z sƒ w»z w» w ƒ w»z ƒ v w.»z sƒw», w ³ m mw w»»z sƒw. 415 d w w», w ³ ww w», š m w» 2002 l 2008 ¾ s³w Fig. 1 ùkü. d» s û w ù p œ ql ùkùš. w ³ ûw ùkù û» w w w x ù küš. ù»z x ƒ m w d w» w ùk ù (Fig. 1(b)). w w x m w. Fig. 1(c) m x m ƒ d» œ ql»z x w ûw w x p ùküš. Fig. 2 2002 l 2008 ¾ 3 s³ t» ùkü
4 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 12, No. 1 Fig. 1. Distribution of averaged seven years(2002-2008) by (a) observed, (b) uncorrected and (c) corrected surface air temperature (unit: o C). Fig. 2. Time series of observed (dashed line), uncorrected (solid line) and corrected (circle solid line) surface air temperature at the Busan and the Seoul for March(unit: o C).. Fig. 2» z x» d» ql w wš. ù m x m w w ùkù. Fig. 1 x» s ùkù. w x ql w w g., Fig. 1 Fig. 2 m x m w x w w d œ e jš. w mw y œ ql j y x m ƒ. Fig. 3 d» mw y w z x w» s w š, Table 2 d d» d Á w w x w» w.»
Ahn et al.: A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using... 5 Fig. 3. Correlation coefficients between simulated and observed surface air temperature for the period of 2002-2008. Table 2. Correlation coefficients between simulated and observed surface air temperature for each station Month Station MAR APR MAY JUN Rusan 0.84 0.8 0.72 0.57 Chuncheon 0.82 0.82 0.68 0.57 Daegu 0.84 0.85 0.74 0.67 Daejeon 0.85 0.83 0.66 0.57 Gwangju 0.85 0.86 0.67 0.55 Kangreung 0.82 0.87 0.75 0.75 Seoul 0.87 0.86 0.68 0.44 z ƒ ql w» ƒ š Fig. 3 Table 2. d»»z x w x 3, 4» 0.8 š x d ql w. x ql x ƒ ƒw 5, 6 w»»»z w ƒ. ù Fisher y œ w w 99% 95% w w ƒƒ 0.13, 0.18 š w, 0.4 0.7 ƒ 5, 6»z x m d w (Fisher, 1915). 3.2.»z sƒ w ³ m mw»z yw»z sƒwš w. 3.2.1. x sƒ s³» 5 o C» š wš,» w
6 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 12, No. 1 Fig. 4. The first appearance date of vegetation temperature (days over 5 o C) for the period of 2002-2008 (unit: Julian day). w tƒ (Shim et al., 2008). e x w ³ w z»z w» x xw. Fig. 4 2002 l 2008» w (a) d» l, (b) x, š (c) z x x s³w ùkü. d x s³ 67 w û x w. x d w r j w»z x ƒ w ƒ s³ 4 71 xw. p»» w y w,» x d s³ 67 x 70 3 w, d x 67 x 4 71 w. z x ûw s³ x 67 d l 66 x w ùkû. z x x r ƒ j», s³ 66, 69 wš d x r ƒ x w w. m ww x»z x ƒ j r w d w xw w w. 3.2.2. x sƒ» (base temperature) s³» 10 C» o w,» 10 o C wš,, y w y (Shim et al., 2008). Fig. 5. The first appearance date of crop growth temperature (days over 10 o C) for the period of 2002-2008 (unit: Julian day).
Ahn et al.: A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using... 7» ƒ s³» 10 o C š w, 10æ x» š w.»z x x mw w»z w x» x xw. Fig. 5 s³» 10 o C x ùkü. d x s³ 79, û,, ûw 78 xw p ƒ. x w s³ x d» w x s³ 9 88 ùkû d ùkû û,, ûw p š. p x w z w š w x w w. z x x x s³ 3 wù x w w d w x p wš ùkù x ql m mw ùký š w. wr, w 15 o C ƒ ƒ w» z 15 o C ü» ƒ» t y (Shim et al., 2008). Fig. 6 2002 l 2008 ¾ (a) d, (b) x, š (c) z x z 15 o C s³ x s ùkü. d s³ 104 e» 4 xw. x w s³ x d» x s³ 8 112 ùkû, z x s³ 110 ùkû. p Á û x s³ 111 d x s ³ 100 11 w mw s³ 103 8. m mw x w j w w. wr x w w r ƒ z x ùkù. z x ƒ x ùkù x wš. 3.2.3.» x sƒ y» þw y x j vw (RDA, 1986). y» vw 5 15 l 6 5 ¾ s³» 13 o C w ú x w x y t y w.» þwvw xw. Fig. 7 2002 2008» s³ x ùkü. x 9.1% w þw vw w, d»» þw x 9.1% k š w (Agricultural Technical Institute, 1986). x d x 2% Fig. 6. The appearance date day of daily mean temperature 15 o C for the period of 2002-2008 (unit: Julian day).
8 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 12, No. 1 Fig. 7. Occurrence rate of low temperature during rice transplanting period for the period of 2002-2008 (unit: %). Fig. 8. The last frost date for the period of 2002-2008 (unit: Julian day). û w w 9.1% w x wš. z x m m w»z x x w w w d w Á x ùkü. 3.2.4. sƒ ƒ w vw ƒ. p š» w»» ü ƒ. š w, w vwƒ w w. p y»ƒ v w» vw x p w š ù p w. x mw vw sƒ w. Fig. 8 (a) d, (b) x, š (c) z x s³ ùkü. d s³ š š ƒ ùkù p y w. x d ƒ œ w wš s³ 30 w š»z x m w» š. z x m ƒ Á x p wš d w wš.» d x w w»z wš w. w NCEP/ NCAR»z x WRF» w 2002 3 l 7 w»z wš, w»z m m w»»z xw w w»
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