18-10( 통권 785 호 ) 2018. 03. 09 관세전쟁발수출절벽대응을위한내외수균형전략 - 최근경제동향과경기판단 (2018 년 1 분기 )
비상업목적으로본보고서에있는내용을인용또는전재할경우내용의출처를명시하면자유롭게인용할수있으며, 보고서내용에대한문의는아래와같이하여주시기바랍니다. 경제연구실 : 주원이사대우 (2072-6235, juwon@hri.co.kr)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary i
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iv
1. ㆍ 4 5.4%, 4.1% ㆍ 1.0% 3.8% 0.6% ㆍ 1 : 17 10 100.2p, 11 100.2p, 12 99.8p, 18 1 99.9p ㆍ 8 : 17 10 100.8p, 11 100.7p, 12 100.7p, 18 1 100.8p ㆍ 1
< 분기경제성장률 > < 경기동행및선행지수순환변동치 > 2. ㆍ1 (YoY): 17 10 0.5%, 11 5.3%, 12 1.4%, 18 1 1.4% (YoY): 17 10 3.1%, 11 11.0%, 12 0.9%, 18 1 17.2%, 1 ㆍ 2017 12 2
(YoY): 17 10 1.4%, 11 12.9%, 12 13.0%, 18 1 25.2% (YoY): 17 10 15.9%, 11 0.2%, 12 6.5%, 18 1 17.9% < 상품군별소매판매액지수증가율 > < 소비재수입액및수입물량증가율 > ㆍ2018 1 22.5% (YoY): 17 10 3.9%, 11 6.7%, 12 2.5%, 18 1 22.5% ㆍ 2017 12 6.0% 2018 1 6.2% (MoM): 17 10 7.2%, 11 2.5%, 12 6.0%, 18 1 6.2% 3
ㆍ 2017 4 ㆍ 2017 11 20% (MoM): 17 11 22.5%, 12 22.7%, 18 1 25.7% < 설비투자지수증가율 > < 국내기계수주액및자본재수입액증가율 > ㆍ2018 1 19.9% (YoY): 17 10 3.4%, 11 5.9%, 12 4.3%, 18 4
1 19.9% ㆍ 1 4.3%, 27.1% (YoY): 17 10 7.3%, 11 11.6%, 12 7.8%, 18 1 4.3% (YoY): 17 10 9.3%, 11 14.2%, 12 11.3%, 18 1 27.1% (YoY): 17 10 44.2%, 11 11.8%, 12 4.8%, 18 1 30.8% (YoY): 17 10 71.8%, 11 17.4%, 12 26.9%, 18 1 45.1% (YoY): 17 10 36.3%, 11 9.5%, 12 2.4%, 18 1 9.1% < 건설기성액증가율 > < 건설수주액증가율 > 1) 민자사업의대부분은강원도삼척ㆍ강릉석탄화력발전소수주로추정되며일시적요인으로간주. 5
ㆍ 2016 11 : 17 11 9.7%, 12 8.8%, 18 1 22.3%, 2 4.0% ㆍ 2 : 17 11 2.4%, 12 3.8%, 18 1 5.8%, 2 2.4% ㆍ 2017 8 2018 2 3.7% : 17 11 20.4%, 12 14.9%, 18 1 24.5, 2 3.7% ㆍ 2 4.9%, EU 17.8%, 10.7% 6
< 월별수출증가율 > < 주요지역별수출증가율 > ㆍ 1 ( 3) 8.6% 0.1%p, 1 22.6% 21.8% ㆍ ( ) 2017 10 20 1 33 4,000 (YoY): 17 10 28.1, 11 25.7, 12 25.7, 18 1 33.4 ㆍ1 ( ) 10.6, 3.9, 9.9 2) 17 년 1 월중제조업의취업자수는 17 만명이감소하였으며, 이에대한기저효과로 18 년 1 월중전년동월에대한제조업취업자수가 10.6 만명이나크게증가하는데에영향을미쳤을것으로판단. 7
< 실업률및체감실업률 (10월기준 )> < 주요산업별취업자증감 > ㆍ2018 1 2.5% 17 12 0.9% (YoY): 17 10 6.8%, 11 4.0%, 12 0.9%, 18 1 2.4% ㆍ2018 1 1.2% 2017 12 2.2% (YoY): 17 10 3.6%, 11 3.1%, 12 2.2%, 18 1 1.2% 8
ㆍ 10 1% (YoY): 17 11 1.3%, 12 1.5%, '18 1 1.0%, 2 1.4% ㆍ 3) 1% (YoY): 17 11 1.3%, 12 1.6%, 18 1 0.8%, 2 1.4% ㆍ 2.8%, 4) < 생산자물가및수입물가상승률 > < 소비자물가상승률 > 3) 소비자물가품목중체감물가를설명하기위해구입빈도가높고지출비중이높아가격변동을민감하게느끼는 141 개품목으로작성한지수. 4) 최저임금위원회추정에따르면농림어업을제외하고음식 숙박업의최저임금영향률 ( 임금인상이필요한근로자의비율예측값 ) 61.1% 로가장높은수준을기록. 9
ㆍ CSI 2018 2 89p 2017 11 CSI: 17 11 98p, 12 95p, 18 1 90p, 2 89p ㆍ CSI 2 100p CSI: 17 11 108p, 12 105p, 18 1 102p, 2 98p ㆍ3 BSI( ) 100p BSI: 17 11 96.5p, 12 96.5p, 18 1 96.5p, 2 92.8p, 3 100.2p ㆍ BSI( ) 80p 6) BSI: 17 11 81p, 12 81p, 18 1 79p, 2 78p, 3 82p < 소비자심리지수 (CCSI)> < 주요기업경기실사지수 (BSI)> 5) 전경련 BSI(600 대기업대상 ) 는대기업의시각을한은 BSI(3,313 개기업대상 ) 는중소기업의시각을더반영하는것으로판단. 6) 2003 년 2 월이후현재까지한은 BSI( 업황전망 ) 은기준치 100p 를넘은적이한번도없으며기간중장기평균치는 80p 임. 따라서 80p 는보통수준의경기에대한시각을나타낼수도있다고판단. 10
ㆍ 2018 1 4.5% 2017 12 0.7% (YoY): 17 10 3.0%, 11 1.4%, 12 0.7%, 18 1 4.5% ㆍ 2017 12 0.5% 2018 1 1.2% ㆍ1 4.6% (YoY): 17 10 5.6%, 11 1.1%, 12 4.6%, 18 1 4.6% ㆍ 1 15.6%, 3.0%, 3.6% < 전산업생산지수증가율 > < 주요산업생산지수증가율 > 7) 구정연휴가 2017 년에는 1 월에 2018 년에는 2 월에있는데에따른기저효과가크게작용. 11
ㆍ 2017 12 6.0% 2018 1 4.3%, (YoY): 17 10 6.2%, 11 1.9%, 12 6.0%, 18 1 4.3% ㆍ 70% : 17 10 73.3%, 11 71.7%, 12 70.2%, 18 1 70.4% ㆍ (YoY): 17 10 6.7%, 11 0.4%, 12 7.5%, 18 1 3.6% ㆍ 2017 (YoY): 17 10 6.4%, 11 4.9%, 12 9.7%, 18 1 9.7% < 제조업생산증감률및가동률 > < 제조업재고및출하증가율 > 12
ㆍ 2017 11 3 (YoY): 17 10 1.4%, 11 3.1%, 12 1.1%, 18 1 3.6% ㆍ 2017 12 0.2% 2018 1 0.8% (MoM): 17 10 1.2%, 11 1.4%, 12 0.2%, 18 1 0.8% ㆍ 2018 1 1.3%, 2017 10 4 ㆍ1 (YoY 20.9%) (YoY 259.1%) 8) (YoY): 17 10 42.6%, 11 17.8%, 12 7.4%, 18 1 20.9% (YoY) 9) : 17 10 49.8%, 11 21.3%, 12 2.9%, 18 1 259.1% 8) 토목부문호조는강원도삼척ㆍ강릉석탄화력발전소민자수주의일시적요인이크게작용. 9) 이동평균이아닌월별전년동월대비증가율임. 13
< 서비스업생산증가율 > < 건축및토목건설수주액증가율 > 3. 14
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