2001. 6. 11, 1990 1999 10% 1996 1999 1996 10%, 1%. 1996, 1999 1996 10%. 2000 8%, 1999. 1) ( : TOE) 1990 1996 1998 1999 1 668.0 887.0 842.6 752.6 110.3 174.4 190.3 200.0 533.6 676.9 614.0 511.0 13.2 15.9 17.4 19.3 10.9 19.8 20.9 22.3 : BpAmoco, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2000.. 70% 1996,,,. 1) J.E. Sinton & D.G. Fridley, "Hot Air and Cold Water: The Unexpected Decline in China's Energy Consumption", LBNL, Presented at the 4th China-Korea-US Economy and Environment Modeling Workshop, May 2001. 2
Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5., 1994, 1999 20%. 2,,. GDP 1990 1.72 TOE/ $ 1999 0.81 TOE/ $. GDP 1990 1.72 TOE/ $(1990 ) 1999 0.81 TOE/ $. 1999 1990. 1990 1996 1998 1999 TOE 668.0 887.0 842.6 752.6 1,155 1,232 1,257 1,269 GDP 10 $ 388.8 737.5 862.6 923.8 TOE 0.58 0.72 0.67 0.59 / GDP TOE/ $ 1.72 1.20 0.98 0.81 : GDP 1990. : BpAmoco, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2000. (US DOE/EIA). 20 GDP 1999 198030%. 1980 ( 7.75% ) (7.3%). LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory),.,. Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 3
2001. 6. 11,. CO2., 1990 7 4,.,.,. 1990 7 4.,.,,. 1990,. (US DOE/EIA), 2020 6.9%, 4.7%. 2) 2020 1999 2.6,. 2) US DOE/EIA, "International Energy Outlook", 2001. 4
Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5 2., 2010 50%. CNPC(China National Petroleum Corporation). 2020 2. 2020 4.5%. 11% 2. 2020, 17%., GDP 2%.. 2020 1999 2.6,, 2... 1999 2010 2020 GDP 10 $ 1,036 2,276 4,245 6.9% TOE 806 1,394 2,119 4.7% ( ) ( ) ( ) ( b/ d) ( ) (tcf) (4.3) (1,075) (0.9) (6.7) (1,810) (2.9) (10.4) (2,586) (6.4) (4.3%) (4.3%) (10.1%) ( ) (TWh) (14) (75) (147) (11.8%) CO2 TC 669 1,131 1,683 4.5% / GDP TOE/ $ 0.78 0.61 0.50-2.1% CO2/ GDP TOE/ $ 0.65 0.50 0.40-2.3% : GDP 1997. : (US DOE/EIA), International Energy Outlook, 2001. DOE/EIA.. LBNL Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 5
2001. 6. 11 2.4 3.2%, 2020 1990. (CDM) CDM., (CDM) CDM..,,. 2010.,,., 2,,.,,., CDM,.. (sjkang @keei.re.kr) 6
Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5 Exxo n-mo bil, Royal Dutc h/s he ll, BpAmo co Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell, BpAmoco 5 (Philips Petroleum, TotalFina Elf, Marathon Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Conoco Inc.) 3 250 300 15%. BpAmoco Exxon-Mobil Al-Ghawar ( 150 170 ) 40, Royal Dutch/Shell Shaybah.,,, 15% Ali al-naimi.. OPEC OPEC 24.2 b/d 6 5. OPEC OPEC 7 3... / 6 4. OPEC 1.7 b/d. OPEC 7 3, Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 7
2001. 6. 11 7 3 OPEC., PTT Petronas 3.,... 2002 1,000 PTT. PTT 2005 140 30. 2000 PTT 100, 20021,000., Thomas Daschle. Daschle Feinstein-Smith FERC, Dianne Feinstein Gordon Smith. Feinstein-Smith FERC 11 (just and resonable)., 8
Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5., (Public Utilities Commission, PUC). Chevron, 2. Chevron Richmond 225 b/d, El Segundo 260 b/d 24%., Gaz pro m Gazprom 129 bcm (billion cubic meters) 3% 133 bcm. 125 135 136 8%. Gazprom Komarov., 2005 5 GW, 2005 5 GW, 5 bcm. 5 OGP.. PetroChina 2003 1.6 bcm Kore a Ene rgy Ec onomics Institute 9
2001. 6. 11. 2004 3.74 bcm, 2005 5.7 bcm., DOE NPC. (NPC) 11. 11,,, /,,,,,, /,,,, 1/3, 6 11 6 11. E. On AG, RWE AG, Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG, HEW AG. 2000 6 14 RWE AG. 4 10
Ove rse a s Ene rgy Ma rke t Inte llige nce Vol. 18 No. 5 50 DM,, 3., (CEC) 2. 95 MW(45 MW, 49.5 MW) 2001 9 30. CEC 10 730 MW 9., 9 12,,..., DOE (interstate) 11-440. 2020 50%.,. -, Al-Arish( ) Aqaba(). Aqaba,. Korea Ene rgy Economics Institute 11
2001. 6. 11 O P EC 5 5 6 5 115 OPEC. WTI Brent 5. Brent WTI, 7 Brent. 6 5 OPEC, 7 3. OPEC 3 $28/bbl OPEC basket. OPEC. OPEC 73/4. $27/bbl. ( : /Bbl) 3 4 5 5/ 31 6/ 1 6/ 4 6/ 5 6/ 6 WTI Brent Dubai 27.21 25.32 23.48 27.41 26.25 24.22 28.59 28.61 25.70 28.54 29.50 27.54 27.91 28.93 26.94 28.12 29.26 27.09 28.02 29.70 27.58 27.66 28.93 26.78 12