6 5 DBO TAN CL1 ( 전년대비수익률 ) 4 3 2 1 YLCO FAN ICLN PBD PBW USL XLE QCLN GEX AMLP USO IEZ -1-2 5% 1 15% 2 25% 3 ( 연률화된표준편차 )
( 달러 / 배럴 ) 12 11 WTI, Brent, 11.53 116.61 ( 백만배럴 /day) 11 ( 백만배럴 ) 6 1 9 8 Brent, 78.43 1 5 7 6 WTI, 71.31 9 4 5 4 8 3 3 WTI, 26.21 Brent, 27.88 2 13.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.1 WTI Brent 7 14.1 14.6 14.12 15.5 15.11 16.4 16.1 17.3 17.9 18.2 일평균원유생산량 (L) 미국주간원유재고 (R) 2
( 달러 / 배럴 ) 14 16-2-11 16-11-1 12 17-5-24 18-2-2 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 18-5-15-8 SP1 SP2 SP3 SP4 SP5 SP6 SP7 SP8 SP9 SP1 SP11 ( 원월물-최근월물 Spread) ( 달러 / 배럴 ) ( 달러 / 배럴 ) 12 3 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 213 214 215 216 217 218 SP1(R) WTI(L) 2 1-1 -2-3
15 1 15% 1 DBO US equity IEZ US equity y = -.8319x 2 +.5481x +.3 R 2 =.4451 5-5 (ETF 일별로그수익률 ) 5% -5% -1-15 213 214 215 216 217 WTI USO US equity XLE US equity -1 y = -1.515x 2 +.7492x + 8E-5 R 2 =.8338-15% -15% -1-5% 5% 1 15% (WTI 일별로그수익률 )
8 CL1 8 CL1 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 16.12 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.11 18.2-4 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 16.12 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.11 18.2 USO US equity DBO US equity USL US equity XLE US equity IEZ US equity AMLP US equity
1 이부분의글 / 그림은모두다음의보고서를참조한것. 류제현외 4명. Clean Energy 원가혁신, 에너지지형을바꾼다, Special Report, 미래에셋대우리서치센터, 218.4.2
(%) 35 3 (GW) 5 4 211-216 217-222 예상 25 2 15 1 5 석탄가스원자력수력풍력태양광 3 2 1 15 16 17 18F 19F 2F 25F 3F
(216USD/kWh) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Soft cost Installation Hardware ex-module Hardware Module (GW) 2 15 1 아프리카 중동 라틴아메리카 5 5 India Germany China Chile Japan US 7 9 11 13 15 17 19F
(US$/kWh).3.25.2.15 발전단가범위 평균발전원가 (MW) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 216 년누적발전용량 217 년누적발전용량.1 2,.5 1, 아시아유럽중국미국아시아유럽중국미국해상풍력육상풍력
4 (%) 1 2 8 6-2 4-4 2-6 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 16.12 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.11 18.2 18.5 ICLN PBW PBD QCLN GEX YLCO TAN FAN ICLN PBW PBD QCLN GEX Y LCO TAN FAN 신재생발전전력설비반도체독립발전
年率 8 6 4 2-2 -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 DBCM OCLT Index XOP us equity CL1 USO US equity (USO return) 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1 y =.892x -.4 R 2 =.7955 y =.7988x +.8 R 2 =.7114-1 -5% 5% 1 15% (CL1 return)
6 4 2-2 -4-6 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 NRGSCL12 Index IEO us equity DBO-CL1 DBO US equity (DBO return) 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1 y =.8144x +.8 R 2 =.7472 y =.6551x +.12 R 2 =.633-1 -5% 5% 1 15% (CL1 return)
6 4 2-2 (USL return) 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% y =.6285x +.14 R 2 =.6599-4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 USL-NRGSCL12 PXE us equity NRGSCL12 Index USL US equity -6% -8% y =.7353x - 5E-5 R 2 =.7195-1 -5% 5% 1 15% (CL1 return)
4 5.5%.1% 2 13.5% -2 Oil&Gas Oil&Gas Services Pipelines Sovereign -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 DJSOEST Index XES us equity 21939 KR XLE US equity 8.8%
4 3.5% 1..1% 2 21.8% -2 Oil&Gas Services Oil&Gas Mining Transportation Sovereign 73.6% -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 AMZIX Index FCG us equity 21939 KR IEZ US equity
4 2.1% 1.1%.1% 2-2 Pipelines Oil&Gas Oil&Gas Services Sovereign -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 SPSUET Index OIH us equity 21939 KR AMLP US equity 96.6%
4 (%) 5 4 2 3 2 1-2 -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 NEXUST Index VDE us equity 276 KR PBW US equity Energy-Alternate Sources Chemicals Electrical Compo&Equip Electric Building Materials Engineering&Construction Miscellaneous Manufactur Semiconductors Auto Parts&Equipment Commercial Services etc
4 (%) 4 2 3 2 1-2 -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 CEXX Index IYE us equity 276 KR PBD US equity Energy- Alternate Sources Electric Electrical Compo&Equip Semiconductors Building Materials Chemicals Closed-end Funds Auto Manufacturers Hand/Machine Tools Electronics etc
4 (%) 3 2 2 1-2 -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 AGIXLT Index FENY us equity 276 KR QCLN US equity Semiconductors Energy- Alternate Sources Electrical Compo&Equip Chemicals Auto Manufacturers Electric Electronics Building Materials Miscellaneous Manufactur Diversified Finan Serv Computers
4 (%) 4 2 3 2 1-2 -4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 IYLCOT Index FXN us equity 276 KR GEX US equity Energy- Alternate Building Materials Miscellaneous Manufactur Electric Auto Manufacturers Electronics Electrical Compo&Equip Environmental Control Semiconductors Hand/Machine Tools Food Chemicals
4 (%) 5 2 4 3 2-2 1-4 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 ECOTR Index RYE us equity 276 KR YLCO US equity Energy- Alternate Sources Electric Closed-end Funds Investment Companies Diversified Finan Serv
4 (%) 7 2 6 5 4 3-2 2 1-4 -6 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 GWETR Index PUW us equity 21842 KR TAN US equity Energy- Alternate Sources Electrical Compo&Equip Electric Chemicals Diversified Finan Serv Semiconductors Hand/Machine Tools Building Materials Sovereign Banks Commercial MBS
4 (%) 5 2 4 3 2-2 1-4 -6-8 16.1 16.7 16.12 17.6 17.12 SOLEX Index IXC us equity 21842 KR FAN US equity Electric Energy-Alternate Sources Electrical Compo&Equip Miscellaneous Manufactur Metal Fabricate/Hardware Engineering&Construction Machinery- Constr&Mining Distribution/Wholesale Chemicals Electronics Building Materials Sovereign