( ) Development of Regional Input - Output Analysis Model( )
2001,
2001 61 ( ) Development of Regional Input-Output Analysis Model ( )
2001-61, / / 2-22 / 2001 12 28 / 2001 12 31 1591-6 (431-712) 031-380-0426( ) 031-380-0114( ) / 031-380-0474 6,000 /ISBN 89-8182- 166-6-93300 http://www.krihs.re.kr 2001,.
...,....... 3. 1. 2 3
... 2001 12
..,..,......,...,.
.,..,.. 7. 1,,,. 2 3..... 4... RAS. RAS < > 1 2 3 RAS LQ, LQ,,
. LQ. 5,. 16,,, 4 26 104 104.,,.,. 4 26. 4.,. LQ LQ. LQ < (RAS) > < 433 243 329 347 338 338 366 310 10% 50% 100% 500% 638 (94.4) 461 (68.2) 210 (31.1) 15 ( 2.2) 614 (90.8) 398 (58.9) 228 (33.7) 7 ( 1.0) 613 (90.7) 401 (59.3) 215 (31.8) 4 ( 0.6) 604 (89.3) 341 (50.4) 170 (25.1) 6 ( 0.9) : ( ) (%)
1 1.. 6.,.. 2.7114 2.1939.,,.,,,,..,. 7,. 1. 2002 2 (5 ) 16. 2003 3.
1 1. 1 2. 3 3. 5 2 1. 9 2. 15 3 1. 21 2. 24 3. 29 4. 33
4 1. 49 2. 53 3. 65 4. 66 5 1. 81 2. 82 3. 89 4. 99 6 1. 101 2. 101 3. 103 4. 105 7 1. 107 2. 109 111 SUMMARY 117 121
< 2-1> 15 < 3-1> 24 < 3-2> 29 < 3-3> 32 < 3-4> ( ) 48 < 4-1> 50 < 4-2> 51 < 4-3> 67 < 4-4> 68 < 4-5> 69 < 4-6> ( ) 70 < 4-7> 73 < 4-8> 76 < 5-1> 81 < 5-2> ( ) 83 < 5-3> 86 < 5-4> 87 < 5-5> 88 < 5-6> 91 < 5-7> 1 94 < 5-8> (4 ) 96
< 6-1> 102 < 6-2> 104 < 6-3> 106 < 7-1> 108
< 2-1> 10 < 4-1> 54
1 C H A P T E R 1....,..... 16 16 16=296. 1 1
20 5 1...... 1) 2). 3).,.,.,... 1) (1983, 1984), (1993, 2001), (1994), (2000),. 2) (2000), (2001) (1996). 3) (1990), (1998). 2
... 2.,.......... 1 3
.........,..,... 4
...,....,.,... 3....,. 1 5
.,.......,....., 2-3.. 6
. 1...,....,,.,, 13 4. 3 2 16. 5.. 1. 1998. 1998 1 7
... 8
2 C H A P T E R 1. 1) (1) (CRTS) (constant retuurns to scale). (increasing returns to scale) (decreasing returns to scale)., (fixed technical coefficient).., X 1 = a 11 X 1 + a 12 X 2 +...... a 1i X i...... a n X n + Y 1 X 2 = a 21 X 1 + a 22 X 2 +...... a 2 i X i...... a 2 n X n + Y 2. X i = a i1 X 1 + a i2 X 2 +...... a ii X i...... a i X n + Y i. X n = a n 1 X 1 + a n2 X 2 +...... a n i X i...... a n n X n + Y n (2-1). 2 9
(2) ( ) (isoquant) (isoquant)., 2 ( Z 1i, Z 2 i ).,. 4). < 2-1> Z 2 i Z 1i Z 2 i Z 1i 4) X Z., X j = min ( Z 1j a 1j, Z 2j a 2j (CRTS) X (isoquant) Z. ). 10
(3)..,.. (4) (black box)....,,. (5)..,.. 2 11
.. (6).,,.. (7),. (linear programming).,,..,..,,.., (static model), (dynamic model).. 12
2) 1 ( a ij ). a ij = X ij X j (2-2) ( X j j X ij i j.) (A) (X) (Y). X = AX + Y (2-3) A = a 11 a 12.. a 1i.. a 1n a 21 a 22.. a 2 i.. a 2 n............ a i1 a i2.. a ii.. a n a n 1 a n2.. a n.. a n n X = X 1 X 2. X i. X n Y = Y 1 Y 2. Y i. Y n. (2-3)., X = ( I - A ) - 1 Y (2-4) 2 13
(I - A ) - 1 (Leontief Inverse Matrix)..,., (Y) (X) (2-4)..,,,.,. 3) (open system) (closed system)... (closed input-output model). (open input-output model). (type ) (type ). type type. 14
< 2-1> 1 2 W1 W2 V1 V2 X1 X2 1 X11 X12 C1 Y1 X1 2 X21 X22 C2 Y2 X2 2. 1)....,. (regional I-O model) (single-region input output analysis) (inter-regional I-O model), (multi-regional I-O model).. 2 15
2) (single-region I-O model)...,. L a L L. a L L ij = z L L ij X L j (2-5) 3) (Inter- Regional I- O Model, IRIO) 2 (Inter-Regional I-O Model, IRIO). L M ( ). Z = [ Z L L Z L M ] Z M L Z M M (2-6). a MM ij = z MM ij X M j (2-7) 16
a L M ij = z L M ij X M j (2-8). (I - A L L ) X L - A L M X M = Y L - A M L X L + (I - A M M ) X M = Y M (2-9), I 0 {[ 0 I ]- A [ L L A L M X A ] M L A }[ L ] M M X M = [ Y L ] Y M (2-10).. 4) (Multi- regional I- O Model, MRIO) (IRIO).. n n n... (Multi-regional I-O Model, MRIO). 2 17
( A L L ) ( A L ).. A L ij = Z L ij X L j (2-11).. (inter-regional trade coefficient). (C). C L M i = Z L M i T M i (2-12). 5) (single region) 1.,... 18
(inter-regional I-O model)...,.. 16 16 16 16, 296. IRIO. (Multi-regional I-O Model). MRIO., 16 16.. MRIO. 5). (MRIO) (IRIO). 1, 2. 1. 2. 5) (1998). 2 19
,. IRIO. Moses-Chenery IRIO. (balanced regional model) 6). 6) Miller & Blair(1985). 20
3 C H A P T E R 1. (Non Survey Technique).. 5 6.. (regional weights approach).... 7). 8) 7) Shen(1960). p18., (1998). 8) Round(1972), (2001). 3 21
(location quotient approach).,. (LQ) 1.. L Q R i = [ X R i / X R X N i / X N ] (3-1) i, R, N.. a R R ij = { a N ij ( L Q R i ) a N ij, L Q R i 1, L Q R i 1 (3-2), (purchase only LQ), (cross industry LQ), (expenditure LQ)., (supply demand pool approach). 9) - X R i = a N ij X R j + c N if Y f (3-3) j f c N if. 9) R. E. Miller & P. Blair, 1985, pp. 300-302. 22
a R R ij = { a N ij ( X R i / b i = X R i - - X a N ij - X R i ), b i 0, b i 0 R i. (3-4), (regional purchase coefficients approach). 10) R P C R i = Z R R i / ( Z R R i + Z - R R i ) (3-5) Z R R i i R R Z - R R i R., RAS.....,. 11).,.. 10) J. I. Round, (. p20 ). 11) (2000), (1992), (2000). 3 23
2. 1). Morrison Smith. RAS, (Simple-Location Quotient).. (< 3-1 >). 12) < 3-1> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mean Absolute Difference RAS SLQ POLQ RMOD CMOD SDP RND CILQ Correlation Coefficient RAS SDP SLQ POLQ RMOD CMOD RND CILQ Mean Similarity Index RAS SLQ POLQ SDP RMOD RND CMOD CILQ : CILQ(Cross-Industry Location Quotient) CMOD(Modified Cross-Industry Quotient) POLQ(Purchasea Only Location Quotient) RAS(RAS) RMOD(Logarithmic Cross-Industry Quotient) SDP(Supply-Demend Pool) SLQ(Simple Location Quotient) RND(Logarithmic Cross Quotient), Information Content RAS SLQ POLQ CMOD RMOD RND CILQ SDP Chi-Square RAS CMOD SLQ RMOD POLQ RND CILQ SDP 12) (1994). 24
,.,.,. RAS. RAS. A. (Simple-Location Quotient). (Location Quotient)..,. 2). 3 25
(1) RAS RAS., non-negativity...,.,......... RAS.. RAS.. 26
(2) (Locaton Quotient Method) (Locaton Quotient Method).......... (Location Quotient) 1. LQ 1.. LQ... LQ. LQ,,. LQ. (3) (Weighting Method) 3 27
..,. RAS LQ,,......... RAS LQ....,..,.. 28
< 3-2> RAS (RAS Method) (Location Quotient Method) (Weighting Method) non-negativity,, I- O ( ) ( ) LQ ( ) ( ) 3. 1) 1936 (W. Leontief) (W. Isard), (Moses and Chenery). (Ronald E. Miller). 13).. 13) R. E. Miller & P. Blair (1985). 3 29
. W. Isard. Isard(1951) Kuenne(1953), Miller(1957). 1960. (1967) (1967), (1969). 1970 (non-survey method), (partial survey method)... 1980. (dynamic).. 2).. (H. Richardson, 1985). 14). (regional weights method), RAS, LQ (location quotient method) (commodity balance approach), 14) (1998),. 30
(regional purchase coefficient method). (short-cut method). 15) 16), (comprehensive general equilibriummodel) 17).... 3).... (1983, 1984), (1994, 2001), (1995), KDI(2000), (2001).. (1994), (1994), (2000)... 15) (2000).. 16). 15 27.. 17). :.. 27 4. 1992. 3 31
< 3-3> K. Han (1963) 19 1958,, (1983) 40 1980 5 : LQ, RAS :, (1984) 17 41 1980 5 : survey, RAS :, (1990) 19 20 1970 1978 1985,,,, : (1993) 21 1988, : MRIO( ) (1993) 31 1990, MRIO KRIO, KMRIO 26, LQ (1995) 26 1990 15 : (1998) 18 1993,, : : H. Ji(1999) 15 1993 5 : :, ( ) (2000) 26 1995 15 RAS (2000) 26 1995 (2000) 16 1994 (2001) 24 1998 RAS LQ 32
4. 1) (1).,.....,,....,. 3 33
... (2),,, LQ..,... (Inter-Regional I-O Model) (Multi-Regional I-O Model)... (W. Isard). 34
.,... Isard.. 1980. 18). Chenery Moses 19) Chenery-Moses. L M i M i, (Regional trade coefficient). M M. 20). C L M i = Z L M i T M i (3-6) Zi LM : L M i Ci L M : Ti M : Z i 1M + Z i 2M +... + Z i L M +...+ Z i p M ( M i ) 18). 1984. 19) 20) Chenery(1953), Moses(1955). 3 35
i. M i M i 0.1 j i i 0.1 j+1 i i 0.1. i......,,,, RAS., -,.,.. 21) 36
.,.,... x m ij = K m X m i Y m j f m ( d m ij ) (3-7) x m ij K m : i j m ( : ) : X m i : i ( ) ( :, Y m j ) : j ( ) ( :, ) f m ( d m ij ) : i j m : i : j :, 21) Wilson, A. G., 1970. Entropy in Urban and Regional Modelling. London: Pion Ltd. pp39-46. 3 37
.,.,....,.,.,. 22). (forecasting dilemma). (3-7) X m i 2 Y m j 2 4. 2. 23) 22) Senior, M. L., 1979. From Gravity Modelling to Entropy Maximizing: A Pedagogic Guide. Progress in Human Geography. Vol. 3 No2. pp. 175-210. (, 2000. (MRIO). pp33-34 ) 23) Wilson,. p16. 38
.,.,.,...,.. 2. ( ). (3-8) - (3-9), m. m i j i. m i j j. (3-10).., 3 39
. xij m = Xi m (3-8) j xij m = Yj m (3-9) i xij m cij m = C m (3-10) i j xij m m i j Xi m i m Yj m j m cij m m i j C m m m W({xij m })= ij T! T ij! m {xij }. {xij m } Lagrangian. 24) = ln W+ i ( 1) i ( X i - j x ij ) + j ( 2) j ( Y i - i x ij ) + ( C - i j x ij c ij ) (3-11) xij m xij m 0 ( ).,.., 24) Wilson,. pp17-19. 40
. 25) (LQ) LQ 2. LQ. LQ. LQ. LQ LQ 1, LQ 1. LQ.,,.,. 2 3 LQ., 2, LQ 1, LQ 1. LQ 1 LQ 1. 25),. p36. 3 41
. 3. 3 6.. 26) 4.. LQ. 27)...,.,.,,.. 26) A, B, C 3, LQ 6., A>1, B>1, C<1,, A>1, B<1, C<1,, A>1, B<1, C>1,, A<1, B>1, C<1,, A<1, B>1, C>1,, A<1, B<1, C>1.., C A B LQ 1.. 27) 4 LQ 1 LQ 1 LQ 1.. 42
2).,,,.. 1980.., 1982.. 28) (1996). 29).,.,.. (1998),,,, LQ 28), 1984. 1980. :. pp92-95. 29), 1996. - -.. pp67-70. 3 43
. 30)..,,,,, LQ. LQ, 3. LQ, LQ LQ 1,. 1 0. LQ 1. LQ, 1 LQ 1 LQ, LQ 1 LQ.. ) A I LQ 0.31, B I LQ 1.3, C I LQ 1.7 A 0.31, B 1.00, C 1.00 B- >A = (1.3/(1.3+1.7))*(1.00-0.31) C->A = (1.7/(1.3+1.7))*(1.00-0.31) 30), 1998. MRIO.. pp53-58. 44
LQ,.,, LQ. 31) (1995),. 32). 15,.,,,,.. r s logz ij r = logg + logp i s + loge j + logd r s r s + ij Zij rs : r i s j G : Pi r Ej s D rs : r i : s j : r s a, b, c: log 31), 2001... pp23-26. 32), -.. 1996. 12 1. pp1-15. 3 45
.., 1990 I-O.. 33),, (1994)... 3),.,,. LQ, LQ.. LQ LQ 33),. pp112-119. 46
LQ 1 LQ (, ). LQ.,. 3. 4 LQ..,,...,.... ( : 3 ) 1 3 47
..,... LQ.. < 3-4> ( ) ( : 3 ),, 48
4 C H A P T E R 1. 1). 1. 1.... 34)... 34) (1998), (2000). 4 49
.... 5...,. 2),.. 3,, 13 4.... < 4-1> 1 2 3 4 (,,,,,,,,,,,, ) 50
.,. (code28). 26. 26.. < 4-2> Code (28 ) Code (77 ) Code (26 ) 0001 1 2 1 3 4 0002 5 6 2 7 8 0003 9 10 3 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0004. 19 20 4 21 22 0005. 23 24 5 0006, 25 26 6 0007. 27 28 7 0008 29 30 8 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 4 51
( ) Code (28 ) Code (77 ) Code (26 ) 0009 38 9 39 40 41 0010 1 42 10 1 43 1 44 1 0011 45 11 0012 46 47 12 0013 48 49 13 50, 51 0014 52 53 14 0015 54 55 15 0016 56 57 16 58 0017 59 17 60 0018 61 18 0019 62 63 19 0020 64 20 0021 65 21 0022 66 22 0023 67 23 0024 68 69 24 0025 70 25 0026 71 72, 26 0027 73 74 0028 75 76 77 52
2. 1) (open system).... ( ). 2.,... 1, 2.. RAS. RAS,. 5. LQ. LQ. LQ. (Multi-regional I-O). MRIO 4 53
RAS LQ,.. RAS-LQ, RAS-. RAS-LQ- -.. 2) (1) RAS.,.. RAS. < 4-1> 1 2 1 2 U ( ) V ( ) 54
, A(o), U,. V A 1 = R 1 A ( O) R 1 = [ U ( 1) ][ U 1 ] - 1 (4-1) S 1 = [ V ( 1) ][ V 1 ] - 1 (4-2) 2 A Matrix, A 2 = R 1 A ( o) S 1 (4-3) R S n A 2n = [ R n.... R 1 ] A ( o)[ S 1.... S n ]. (2). LQGE 4 55
(Location Quotient-Gravity-Entropy Model). LQ. LQ LQ 1 LQ 1., LQ 1 1.. 1999., 1..... Chenery-Moses..,, 56
.. 35).,. LQ,,. LQ,,..... LQ, 4. LQ. 3. 4,.. LQ LQ. 35), 1983.. pp63-69.,,. pp23-25.,,. p20. 4 57
6.,,,,,.. LQ. LQ LQ 1, LQ 1, 1. 36) LQ, LQ. LQ. LQ,. LQ. S r i I r i = X r it - X r tt * ( W i W t ) 36) Isserman, A. M., "Estimating Export Activity in Regional Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternative Methods". International Regional Science Review. 5(1980). pp155-184.,, 1998.. p19.,, 2001.. pp23-26. 58
S r i : X r it - X r tt * ( I r i : X r it - X r tt * ( W i W t ) > 0 W i W t ) < 0 X r it X r tt Wi Wt : r i : r : i :..,.,.,,,.,. 37) 37),,,,. 4 59
logz rs = logg + logp r + loge s + logd rs + r s Z r s : r s G : P r E s D rs : r : s : r s a, b, c:..,.....,.. 60
r i i,. r i s, s s i, r i. r. s. r r. s s..,... S ir C r = O irs (4-4) S ir : I [ S i1, S i2 S ir S in ] C r : [ C 1, C 2 C r C n ] O irs : 4 61
O i11 O i12 O i1n O i21 O i22 O i2n : O n 1 O n2 O in n I is = I is + n s = 1 O irs (4-5) I is i [ I i1, I i2 I is I in ] If I is 0, T hen C r = 0 Other wise C r = C r S ir = S ir - n r = 1 O irs (4-6) If A ll S ir = 0, T hen en d Go To (4-4).... LQ 62
1. LQ 1 LQ 1. LQ 1. E r it = E r tt * ( W i W t ) E r it : r i E r tt Wi Wt : r : i :. i z.. Chenery- Moses. 3 (3-6). (3-6) 4 63
.... 38) A L = a ( L 11 a L 12, A a ) M = a L 21 a ( M 11 a M 12 ) L 22 a M 21 a M 22 C LL = c ( L L 1 0, 0 c ) L L 2 C LM = c ( L M 1 0 0 c ) L M 2 C M L = c ( ML 1 0, 0 c ) ML 2 C M M = c ( MM 1 0 0 c ) MM 2 C LL A L = c ( L L 1 a L 11 c L L 1 a L 12, c ) L L 2 a L 21 c L L 2 a L 22 C LM A M = c ( L M 1 a M 11 c L M 1 a M 12 c ) L M 2 a M 21 c L M 2 a M 22 C M L A L = c ( ML 1 a L 11 c ML 1 a L 12, c ) ML 2 a L 21 c ML 2 a L 22 C M M A M = c ( MM 1 a M 11 c MM 1 a M 12 c ) MM 2 a M 21 c MM 2 a M 22 C LL A L, C M M A M L M. C LM A M, C M L A L. 38), 1993. - I. :. pp18-24. 64
,.,. 3. 1) RAS,,., (A(o)). r i (V) (X) (Q)., V r i = X r i - Q r i.. (X) (Y) (U)..,,,,, 6. 4 65
. ( : KDI ).,,,.... 4. 1).,...,. < 4-3> < 4-4>. 66
< 4-3> ( : ) 1 836,088 473,702 2,038,653 11,527,548 2 23,952 110,192 146,421 618,025 3 1,866,599 2,937,530 8,305,230 17,968,718 4. 7,650,559 847,350 7,030,482 13,053,656 5. 492,535 1,314,709 3,907,656 5,843,957 6, 4,811,784 77,578 695,399 553,042 7 0 2,517,737 44,764 15,676,934 8 1,172,704 2,749,113 11,486,281 39,949,507 9 363,944 654,829 3,194,035 8,039,415 10 1 358,834 4,521,822 3,454,120 25,092,311 11 497,167 1,771,322 3,948,951 6,742,599 12 963,247 3,676,836 5,582,942 12,685,662 13 5,537,843 2,759,067 32,849,761 26,186,137 14 377,029 404,046 975,166 1,549,406 15 145,105 5,203,645 7,706,295 30,550,974 16 888,413 1,761,724 2,165,135 1,559,009 17 975,042 1,497,790 2,732,872 7,730,051 18 16,070,453 5,099,117 14,083,059 37,853,628 19 35,911,156 2,821,935 4,863,490 15,582,588 20 9,568,026 1,395,536 3,371,131 11,374,369 21 14,593,773 3,167,303 1,069,415 15,881,240 22 7,009,353 1,094,669 657,128 2,998,914 23 24,833,944 1,321,856 1,809,205 5,960,808 24 40,198,531 2,753,694 3,544,555 10,148,890 25 5,270,601 784,054 1,040,416 3,444,987 26 23,010,949 2,674,570 3,568,171 13,465,485 4 67
< 4-4> 1 323,877 184,786 4,184,228 30,634,840 2 18,898 59,170 292,860 1,347,387 3 1,245,714 2,376,014 11,491,930 24,339,855 4. 5,221,024 599,450 9,993,625 18,857,738 5. 322,865 937,546 5,444,462 8,311,366 6, 2,693,012 48,021 1,100,906 950,835 7 0 1,928,966 67,537 19,087,803 8 711,728 1,916,014 18,142,039 54,771,084 9 248,996 460,502 4,913,186 11,662,961 10 1 279,415 3,589,400 4,430,379 33,438,863 11 333,506 1,203,826 5,872,653 10,430,509 12 616,037 2,663,265 8,307,270 18,520,634 13 4,064,911 1,983,093 49,250,703 36,635,688 14 254,781 293,599 1,474,974 2,297,896 15 88,034 3,379,677 10,376,548 42,496,704 16 600,907 1,226,483 3,217,345 2,240,835 17 418,237 796,793 4,602,413 15,041,909 18 8,868,327 2,851,580 23,911,899 65,438,547 19 20,456,201 1,491,169 9,047,064 34,546,477 20 7,452,163 1,117,181 4,753,281 16,412,701 21 7,497,653 1,959,812 2,658,503 26,903,252 22 2,593,120 449,310 1,725,204 7,873,589 23 8,812,631 522,610 4,689,450 15,633,262 24 15,149,853 799,323 11,548,727 29,454,835 25 1,854,734 244,786 2,899,431 11,504,088 26 9,342,000 925,748 10,413,990 37,163,964 68
2) (1) (,, )...... (2)..,,. < 4-5> ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ), ( ), ( ) ( / ) ( ), ( ) ( ), ( ), ( ) 4 69
,... KDI 70 29, 28, 13.. 39). < 4-6> ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 39),. pp103-107. 70
. 40). (3). (X) (VA).., = (X)- (VA)"..,.,...... 40) (1980), (1998). 4 71
, GDP.,.... 3).....,.. 72
. 100%..... < 4-7>. < 4-7> ( : ) 1 711,054 402,862 3,558,493 26,053,517 2 322,099 1,481,829 3,938,293 18,119,255 3 539,438 848,931 3,321,110 7,034,096 4. 2,959,352 327,768 3,865,686 7,294,459 5. 563,967 1,505,380 6,234,067 9,516,755 6, 3,984,950 64,247 911,732 787,448 7 0 2,158,124 57,891 16,361,457 8 1,162,648 2,725,539 17,986,470 54,301,418 9 430,832 775,177 5,816,160 13,806,449 ( ) 4 73
( : ) 10 1 413,705 5,213,277 5,107,851 38,552,172 11 412,458 1,469,517 4,872,047 8,653,318 12 713,060 2,721,841 6,149,599 13,710,217 13 3,519,588 1,753,531 31,301,392 23,283,891 14 352,124 377,356 1,377,543 2,146,107 15 57,691 2,068,857 4,125,491 16,895,769 16 319,372 633,315 1,156,591 805,549 17 824,078 1,265,889 3,889,828 12,712,993 18 1,909,855 605,993 2,841,753 7,776,890 19 12,169,191 956,267 3,065,773 11,706,743 20 0 0 0 0 21 7,170,529 1,556,228 1,306,233 13,218,689 22 4,583,695 715,848 1,128,180 5,148,854 23 18,624,275 991,329 3,516,864 11,724,202 24 30,394,205 2,082,075 8,732,020 22,270,871 25 0 0 0 0 26 4,649,653 540,431 2,104,278 7,509,448 74
4).. 2......,. 41) 41) 28 1998. 4 75
< 4-8> 1 2 3 4 5 6.., 1 0.04726 0.00204 0.39774 0.02155 0.04358 0.00000 2 0.00003 0.00000 0.00058 0.00034 0.00487 0.00000 3 0.13411 0.00000 0.14534 0.02000 0.00116 0.00000 4. 0.00375 0.00073 0.00032 0.30004 0.00942 0.00159 5. 0.00648 0.00871 0.01518 0.00878 0.40401 0.25626 6, 0.00044 0.00080 0.00174 0.00261 0.00357 0.07725 7 0.02422 0.04669 0.00832 0.01369 0.01721 0.00836 8 0.06647 0.01792 0.03098 0.14140 0.06271 0.05621 9 0.00034 0.00030 0.00473 0.00066 0.00412 0.00020 10 1 0.00087 0.00156 0.00020 0.00036 0.00156 0.00012 11 0.00090 0.00317 0.01283 0.00276 0.00284 0.00039 12 0.00740 0.01527 0.00173 0.00457 0.00501 0.00573 13 0.00237 0.00435 0.00059 0.00114 0.00143 0.00371 14 0.00109 0.00012 0.00010 0.00020 0.00038 0.00034 15 0.00257 0.02922 0.00124 0.00096 0.00223 0.00412 16 0.00015 0.00023 0.00200 0.00469 0.00045 0.00012 17 0.00585 0.04548 0.00896 0.01839 0.03239 0.00789 18 0.00088 0.00268 0.00036 0.00072 0.00047 0.00014 19 0.00817 0.00343 0.02347 0.02521 0.03055 0.02158 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.01087 0.02396 0.01143 0.01174 0.01675 0.01769 22 0.00323 0.00458 0.00230 0.00433 0.00574 0.01380 23 0.05843 0.04231 0.01681 0.03798 0.04067 0.03962 24 0.04128 0.08306 0.02681 0.03684 0.02862 0.08791 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.00427 0.00392 0.00292 0.00614 0.00502 0.02099 76
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14. 1 1 0.00000 0.00788 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 2 0.55049 0.00584 0.11893 0.05031 0.00020 0.00042 0.00043 0.00014 3 0.00002 0.00605 0.00004 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00003 0.00000 4 0.00010 0.00508 0.00149 0.00037 0.00119 0.00125 0.00091 0.00270 5 0.00020 0.00859 0.01375 0.00078 0.00839 0.00418 0.00609 0.00741 6 0.00074 0.00307 0.00176 0.00037 0.00170 0.00150 0.00218 0.00222 7 0.03273 0.08657 0.06226 0.04153 0.01279 0.01173 0.00407 0.00569 8 0.01105 0.43801 0.04438 0.00772 0.03035 0.03327 0.04891 0.04508 9 0.00067 0.00525 0.16739 0.01403 0.00370 0.00662 0.03362 0.01092 10 0.00099 0.00455 0.00921 0.54951 0.31882 0.14985 0.04618 0.02793 11 0.00407 0.00739 0.00725 0.00247 0.09690 0.04558 0.00737 0.01117 12 0.00556 0.01156 0.01284 0.00754 0.02273 0.22967 0.00909 0.01030 13 0.00080 0.00137 0.00271 0.00251 0.00668 0.05348 0.43933 0.17195 14 0.00081 0.00075 0.00043 0.00052 0.00135 0.01167 0.00662 0.15259 15 0.00046 0.00136 0.00793 0.00081 0.00208 0.00556 0.00049 0.00110 16 0.00007 0.00018 0.00015 0.00003 0.00593 0.00034 0.00015 0.00114 17 0.00753 0.02707 0.04218 0.03611 0.01854 0.01137 0.00745 0.00975 18 0.00021 0.00051 0.00052 0.00089 0.00073 0.00060 0.00045 0.00031 19 0.00342 0.02158 0.01881 0.01297 0.02452 0.02799 0.02314 0.02845 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.00546 0.01257 0.03172 0.00937 0.01331 0.01465 0.00902 0.01221 22 0.00280 0.00404 0.00774 0.00423 0.00434 0.00447 0.00512 0.00460 23 0.00781 0.02474 0.04247 0.01399 0.03162 0.01836 0.01886 0.02980 24 0.01237 0.03205 0.02880 0.01903 0.02534 0.03049 0.02703 0.05910 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.00308 0.01905 0.00886 0.00870 0.00647 0.02060 0.02688 0.09988 4 77
15 16 17 18 19 20 1 0.00000 0.00472 0.00000 0.00148 0.00000 0.00206 2 0.00003 0.00100 0.19392 0.00491 0.00000 0.00000 3 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 4 0.00642 0.04072 0.00034 0.00119 0.00033 0.00372 5 0.00349 0.12288 0.00004 0.01949 0.00598 0.01575 6 0.00073 0.00394 0.00069 0.00127 0.00644 0.00459 7 0.00735 0.01143 0.05822 0.00814 0.02013 0.06355 8 0.06111 0.11475 0.02329 0.02219 0.00235 0.01289 9 0.00653 0.01340 0.00090 0.09543 0.00028 0.00239 10 0.07756 0.05656 0.00312 0.06109-0.00023 0.00016 11 0.02134 0.02587 0.00118 0.06669 0.00050 0.00471 12 0.06822 0.00618 0.00624 0.03027 0.00136 0.00148 13 0.05287 0.01682 0.00961 0.03120 0.00195 0.00954 14 0.01849 0.00054 0.00234 0.00186 0.00050 0.00002 15 0.26299 0.00145 0.00063 0.00134 0.00144 0.00073 16 0.00734 0.02794 0.00011 0.00460 0.00086 0.01086 17 0.00747 0.01351 0.14501 0.00175 0.01027 0.04429 18 0.00027 0.00039 0.03344 0.00026 0.00121 0.00116 19 0.02222 0.03425 0.00539 0.02302 0.01653 0.00915 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.00686 0.02116 0.00713 0.01587 0.02344 0.00635 22 0.00357 0.00474 0.00318 0.00343 0.05825 0.01213 23 0.03056 0.04493 0.01887 0.02475 0.05147 0.03495 24 0.02610 0.05192 0.01611 0.09516 0.15107 0.23986 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.01890 0.00996 0.01153 0.00862 0.00636 0.01326 78
21 22 23 24 25 26 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00030 0.00116 0.00211 2 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00027 0.00002 3 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00008 0.00069 0.00054 4 0.00084 0.00064 0.00084 0.00053 0.00378 0.00246 5 0.00052 0.00023 0.00012 0.00103 0.00307 0.00113 6 0.00342 0.00556 0.01042 0.01713 0.01140 0.01324 7 0.13222 0.00573 0.00405 0.00704 0.02955 0.01896 8 0.01192 0.00196 0.00045 0.00518 0.01279 0.05608 9 0.00008 0.00010 0.00001 0.00005 0.00092 0.00083 10 0.00013 0.00000 0.00000 0.00004 0.00035 0.00116 11 0.00180 0.00028 0.00015 0.00016 0.00517 0.00105 12 0.00191 0.00046 0.00019 0.00209 0.05334 0.00357 13 0.00464 0.02702 0.00382 0.00520 0.00874 0.00841 14 0.00073 0.00135 0.00002 0.00098 0.00308 0.00982 15 0.02958 0.00052 0.00070 0.00158 0.05263 0.00308 16 0.00027 0.00129 0.00044 0.00130 0.00232 0.00546 17 0.00482 0.01115 0.00697 0.01435 0.02382 0.01854 18 0.00044 0.00354 0.00055 0.06843 0.07749 0.00302 19 0.00882 0.00258 0.00116 0.00205 0.00888 0.00960 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.17599 0.00807 0.01613 0.00701 0.02465 0.00757 22 0.00558 0.07086 0.01702 0.02206 0.02561 0.00995 23 0.01822 0.01383 0.08385 0.03055 0.00541 0.01198 24 0.12115 0.06166 0.09253 0.11725 0.05390 0.11064 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.00772 0.01529 0.00540 0.00514 0.00936 0.03059 4 79
5 C H A P T E R 1. 26 (A(0)) RAS 1... 1 4. 2.. 3.. < 5-1> 1 2 3 RAS LQ, LQ,, 5 81
2. 1) RAS 10 1. 71.. 0.047 0.02536 0.0097. 0.12738 0.03619.,,..,,.... 3. 4. 82
< 5-2> ( ) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.,. 1 0.02583 0.00343 0.26646 0.01236 0.03734 0.00000 0.00000 0.00754 0.00001 2 0.00002 0.00000 0.00042 0.00021 0.00451 0.00000 0.42241 0.00603 0.12433 3 0.11521 0.00000 0.15307 0.01803 0.00156 0.00000 0.00002 0.00910 0.00006 4. 0.00409 0.00245 0.00043 0.34400 0.01615 0.00188 0.00014 0.00973 0.00288 5. 0.00120 0.00493 0.00343 0.00170 0.11688 0.05116 0.00005 0.00277 0.00449 6, 0.00068 0.00381 0.00333 0.00426 0.00871 0.12996 0.00150 0.00836 0.00485 7 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 8 0.01246 0.01031 0.00712 0.02782 0.01843 0.01140 0.00269 0.14376 0.01474 9 0.00005 0.00014 0.00091 0.00011 0.00101 0.00003 0.00014 0.00144 0.04652 10 1 0.00012 0.00065 0.00003 0.00005 0.00033 0.00002 0.00017 0.00108 0.00222 11 0.00018 0.00191 0.00308 0.00057 0.00087 0.00008 0.00104 0.00254 0.00252 12 0.00266 0.01683 0.00076 0.00172 0.00282 0.00222 0.00260 0.00727 0.00817 13 0.00153 0.00863 0.00047 0.00077 0.00145 0.00259 0.00067 0.00155 0.00310 14 0.00064 0.00022 0.00007 0.00012 0.00035 0.00022 0.00062 0.00077 0.00045 15 0.00012 0.00405 0.00007 0.00005 0.00016 0.00020 0.00003 0.00011 0.00063 16 0.00007 0.00034 0.00114 0.00229 0.00033 0.00006 0.00004 0.00015 0.00012 17 0.00129 0.03091 0.00243 0.00427 0.01124 0.00189 0.00217 0.01049 0.01654 18 0.00040 0.00372 0.00020 0.00034 0.00033 0.00007 0.00012 0.00041 0.00042 19 0.03483 0.04492 0.12264 0.11273 0.20413 0.09951 0.01893 0.16103 0.14203 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.01270 0.08600 0.01638 0.01440 0.03070 0.02237 0.00830 0.02572 0.06567 22 0.00246 0.01070 0.00214 0.00345 0.00683 0.01135 0.00277 0.00538 0.01042 23 0.12069 0.26830 0.04258 0.08232 0.13171 0.08855 0.02096 0.08947 0.15540 24 0.04330 0.26746 0.03447 0.04054 0.04706 0.09976 0.01686 0.05885 0.05349 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.00683 0.01927 0.00573 0.01031 0.01260 0.03634 0.00641 0.05337 0.02512 5 83
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00363 0.00000 0.00121 2 0.09070 0.00024 0.00038 0.00034 0.00009 0.00003 0.00083 0.17150 0.00433 3 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00003 0.00000 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 4. 0.00125 0.00272 0.00212 0.00135 0.00305 0.01219 0.06269 0.00056 0.00195 5. 0.00044 0.00324 0.00120 0.00151 0.00141 0.00112 0.03195 0.00001 0.00537 6, 0.00178 0.00553 0.00363 0.00457 0.00357 0.00198 0.00863 0.00161 0.00294 7 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 8 0.00442 0.01191 0.00971 0.01237 0.00874 0.01993 0.03031 0.00654 0.00621 9 0.00672 0.00122 0.00162 0.00712 0.00177 0.00178 0.00296 0.00021 0.02234 10 1 0.22802 0.09070 0.03168 0.00846 0.00392 0.01833 0.01083 0.00064 0.01238 11 0.00148 0.03975 0.01389 0.00195 0.00226 0.00727 0.00714 0.00035 0.01949 12 0.00827 0.01709 0.12831 0.00440 0.00382 0.04260 0.00313 0.00336 0.01621 13 0.00496 0.00903 0.05374 0.38272 0.11476 0.05939 0.01530 0.00930 0.03006 14 0.00094 0.00166 0.01069 0.00526 0.09286 0.01894 0.00045 0.00207 0.00164 15 0.00011 0.00020 0.00039 0.00003 0.00005 0.02066 0.00009 0.00004 0.00009 16 0.00005 0.00579 0.00025 0.00010 0.00055 0.00595 0.01836 0.00008 0.00320 17 0.02441 0.00859 0.00392 0.00222 0.00223 0.00287 0.00421 0.04809 0.00058 18 0.00123 0.00069 0.00042 0.00027 0.00014 0.00021 0.00025 0.02264 0.00018 19 0.16884 0.21884 0.18560 0.13302 0.12531 0.16475 0.20571 0.03445 0.14638 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.03346 0.03259 0.02665 0.01423 0.01475 0.01395 0.03486 0.01250 0.02767 22 0.00981 0.00690 0.00529 0.00525 0.00362 0.00472 0.00508 0.00362 0.00389 23 0.08829 0.13678 0.05900 0.05256 0.06360 0.10980 0.13077 0.05840 0.07627 24 0.06097 0.05565 0.04975 0.03824 0.06405 0.04762 0.07673 0.02531 0.14888 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.04254 0.02168 0.05131 0.05803 0.16520 0.05260 0.02245 0.02766 0.02059 84
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 1 0.00000 0.00199 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00021 0.00084 0.00154 2 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00021 0.00002 3 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00009 0.00078 0.00062 4. 0.00047 0.00717 0.00107 0.00115 0.00097 0.00074 0.00545 0.00359 5. 0.00145 0.00512 0.00011 0.00007 0.00002 0.00024 0.00075 0.00028 6, 0.01313 0.01258 0.00620 0.01422 0.01704 0.03390 0.02340 0.02751 7 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 8 0.00058 0.00426 0.00261 0.00060 0.00009 0.00124 0.00317 0.01405 9 0.00006 0.00066 0.00001 0.00003 0.00000 0.00001 0.00019 0.00017 10 1-0.00004 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00006 0.00021 11 0.00013 0.00163 0.00041 0.00009 0.00003 0.00004 0.00134 0.00028 12 0.00064 0.00094 0.00080 0.00027 0.00007 0.00095 0.02528 0.00171 13 0.00165 0.01086 0.00349 0.02870 0.00259 0.00427 0.00745 0.00725 14 0.00038 0.00002 0.00050 0.00131 0.00001 0.00074 0.00240 0.00773 15 0.00009 0.00006 0.00156 0.00004 0.00003 0.00009 0.00314 0.00019 16 0.00052 0.00893 0.00015 0.00099 0.00022 0.00077 0.00143 0.00340 17 0.00298 0.01728 0.00124 0.00406 0.00162 0.00404 0.00696 0.00548 18 0.00072 0.00093 0.00023 0.00263 0.00026 0.03935 0.04622 0.00182 19 0.09238 0.06875 0.04385 0.01810 0.00520 0.01113 0.04997 0.05468 20 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 21 0.03593 0.01310 0.24000 0.01551 0.01983 0.01043 0.03803 0.01182 22 0.05804 0.01626 0.00495 0.08857 0.01360 0.02134 0.02569 0.01010 23 0.13941 0.12729 0.04390 0.04699 0.18214 0.08032 0.01475 0.03306 24 0.20777 0.44360 0.14823 0.10638 0.10205 0.15651 0.07462 0.15505 25 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 26 0.01334 0.03741 0.01442 0.04025 0.00908 0.01046 0.01977 0.06542 5 85
2),.. 50% 12 10% 34.. 4. < 5-3> 1 0.43143 0.38735 0.39007 0.48723 0.37628 2 0.34054 0.78900 0.53695 0.49995 0.45867 3 0.71669 0.66734 0.80882 0.72273 0.73823 4 0.66508 0.68246 0.70743 0.70350 0.69216 5 0.72477 0.65548 0.71314 0.71770 0.70312 6 0.62401 0.55966 0.61903 0.63168 0.58165 7 0.65144 0.50862 0.76619 0.66283 0.82133 8 0.73514 0.60695 0.69693 0.63308 0.72939 9 0.63164 0.68420 0.70324 0.65010 0.68931 10 1 0.78383 0.77869 0.79382 0.77965 0.75039 11 0.63770 0.67082 0.67961 0.67238 0.64643 12 0.68364 0.63954 0.72433 0.67206 0.68493 13 0.72342 0.73405 0.71880 0.66697 0.71480 14 0.69445 0.67573 0.72664 0.66113 0.67425 15 0.71042 0.60670 0.64950 0.74264 0.71893 16 0.62906 0.67636 0.69617 0.67297 0.69571 17 0.54132 0.42895 0.53199 0.59383 0.51388 18 0.52405 0.55184 0.55920 0.58894 0.57844 19 0.36047 0.56964 0.52842 0.53758 0.45106 20 0.49359 0.77890 0.80051 0.70922 0.69298 21 0.53079 0.51374 0.61877 0.40227 0.59030 22 0.23211 0.36994 0.41046 0.38092 0.38088 23 0.24483 0.35481 0.39537 0.38580 0.38129 24 0.30953 0.37688 0.29026 0.30697 0.34452 25 0.41840 0.35189 0.31222 0.35882 0.29943 26 0.32981 0.40597 0.34614 0.34259 0.36235 86
. 4,,,,.,,,. 1.. 42) < 5-4> ( : ) 2 0 1 16 2 0 19 1 12 3 4 13 26 6 15 20. 0 23 24 21, 26 0 10 0 0 20 0 8 0 13 21 22 0 11 21 18 1 0 23 2 18 0 24 21 11 2 26 24 18 8 10 26 11 3 24 24 9 0 26 23 20 2 26 24 2 0 20 13 14 2 25 26 24 2 25 26 24 26 13 10 20 0 0 0 0 26 20 0 9 13 8 0 3 26 6 3 4 25 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 26 7 8 9 : 26 42) 26. 5 87
.,.,. 3) RAS.. 4.. 676 90% 10% 30% 100%.. < 5-5> < 10% 50% 100% 500% 433 243 638 (94.4) 461 (68.2) 210 (31.1) 15 (2.2) 329 347 614 (90.8) 398 (58.9) 228 (33.7) 7 (1.0) 338 338 613 (90.7) 401 (59.3) 215 (31.8) 4 (0.6) 366 310 604 (89.3) 341 (50.4) 170 (25.1) 6 (0.9) : ( ) 88
3. 1).,... LQ. LQ LQ LQ 1 LQ (, ). LQ.,. LQ. LQ,. LQ. LQ. 5 89
2) 4. 4. 16.. 4,.. 43). 16,. 4 4. 4. (1) < 5-6> LQ 4.,,.. 15,,, 1, 43), 1998.. p54. 90
10, 10 3..,,. < 5-6> ( : ) -6,692,164-1,457,895-2,313,619 10,463,678-299,445 24,320-36,596 311,720-5,047,202 965,900 2,183,849 1,897,453 776,675-1,099,354 796,387-473,709-2,176,195 547,564 1,581,703 46,925 3,702,304-296,673-452,804-2,952,834-4,054,329 1,336,379-3,450,848 6,168,793-11,772,709-747,257 1,800,494 10,719,472-2,640,785-159,268 917,375 1,882,678 1-7,710,247 2,191,690-3,800,640 9,319,195-2,828,798 809,872 1,322,014 696,911-4,770,912 1,982,447 966,123 1,822,341-10,784,220-1,681,562 20,992,687-8,526,910-418,339 170,649 351,520-103,832-10,475,681 2,184,372-1,715,125 10,006,431-504,970 1,289,743 1,057,629-1,842,407 5 91
( ) -3,633,560 315,317 624,600 2,693,643-6,958,852-809,735 4,034,656 3,733,932 18,756,571-1,579,584-5,759,544-11,417,447 2,873,121-322,241-1,025,282-1,525,599 4,733,009 637,231-5,852,602 482,360 3,320,578 148,205-1,458,683-2,010,101 15,149,112-1,163,076-3,669,803-10,316,241 22,704,475-1,734,926-3,550,888-17,418,663 1,007,686-309,724-780,013 82,052 7,744,875-1,242,395-2,762,591-3,739,887 (2) 1,..,. 44),. 44),. pp5-6. 92
logz rs = -13.4142 +1.6801log Pr +1.3545log Es -1.0878logD rs + rs (-9.0846) (10.6453) (8.0758) (-8.5468) ( ) t, R 2 = 0.5133. 4. 16 ( pp. 131-145 ). (3) < 5-6>. 4,. 1. LQ 1,,,,,,....,. 5 93
< 5-7> 1 16. 26. < 5-7> 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,117,971 0 974,558 18,461 0 3,854 5,815 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 363,035 0 193,206 101,874 0 12,854 32,179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 739,345 0 346,250 510,231 0 24,062 55,931 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,174,901 0 920,817 224,366 0 525,181 75,083 4,233,624 0 1,343,543 880,138 0 91,959 435,044 81,371 0 22,266 30,552 0 2,705 12,746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,710,247 0 3,800,640 1,765,623 0 660,616 616,799 94
( ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9,899 22,774 27,420 10,453 0 0 0 485 2,191,690 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22,628 60,095 32,021 47,698 0 0 0 5,363 870,955 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61,190 92,396 49,508 73,693 0 0 0 22,333 1,974,941 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42,465 166,382 163,060 272,781 0 0 0 25,923 3,590,960 0 666,398 503,765 195,222 372,849 0 0 0 346,344 9,068,885 0 17,272 9,634 3,797 10,270 0 0 0 19,451 210,064 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 819,852 855,047 471,029 787,743 0 0 0 419,899 17,907,500 (3) < 5-7>,., 1 LQ 1 3836 600. LQ 1 1 2 767 1800..,. 5 95
4 4, 16 4. 4 < 5-8>. < 5-8> (4 ) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8..,. 0.11106 0.074919 0.283339 1 0.194817 1 0 0.09624 0 0.044122 0.123665 0 0.173543 0 0.160698 0 0 0 0.129876 0 0.215898 0 0 0.114965 0.88894 0.880959 0.46312 0 0.415743 0 0.839302 0.788795 0 0 0 0.150354 0 0.802029 0 0 0.245239 1 1 0.421153 1 0.197971 1 0.776425 0 0 0 0.101084 0 0 0 0.017853 0.754762 0 0 0.327408 0 0 0 0.205723 0 0 0 0 0 0.36389 0 0 0 0.004481 0 0 0 0 0.169373 0 0.643941 0.869012 1 1 1 0.63611 0.013876 1 0.356059 0.126507 0 0 0 0 0.816751 0 0 0 0 0.024763 0 0.764428 0 0 0 0.005558 0.005033 0 0.010843 0 0.008483 0 0 0 0.067259 0.030475 0.13784 0 0 0.006969 1 0.994442 0.927708 0.944762 0.851317 0.235572 0.991517 0.993031 96
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 0.128412 0.047395 0.158168 0.177522 0.354407 0.490698 0.014592 0.652874 0.21157 0 0.138126 0.225199 0.317297 0 0.175819 0.140103 0.279324 0.064631 0.157358 0 0.286829 0.124497 0.504995 0.148267 0 0.054663 0.125431 0.71423 0.814479 0.329805 0.380683 0.140598 0.185216 0.845306 0.013139 0.598368 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.795128 1 1 1 0.607662 1 1 1 1 0.020126 0 0 0 0.298613 0 0 0 0 0.184746 0 0 0 0.093725 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.139501 0 0 0 0 0.060542 0 0 1 0.455966 1 1 1 1 0.813081 1 1 0 0.404533 0 0 0 0 0.126378 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004572 0.005902 0.009131 0 0.011919 0.004896 0.226644 0.001414 0.052346 0 0.039783 0.015696 0.251962 0.104385 0 0.250943 0.003769 0.947654 0.995428 0.954315 0.975173 0.748038 0.883696 0.995104 0.522413 0.994818 5 97
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 0.697826 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.057961 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.244213 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.322768 0.115233 0 0 0.463587 0.378388 0.123681 0.170547 0.862962 0.641127 0.812408 1 1 0.531949 0.613483 0.716831 0.682817 0.020519 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.116519 0.036104 0.072359 0 0 0.004464 0.008129 0.159489 0.146636 0 0.327006 0.083363 0.410155 0.358458 0.431806 0.225717 0.057462 0.068589 0 0 0 0.065626 0.031648 0 0 0 0 1 0.611015 0.822572 0.312357 0.541855 0.560989 0.764836 0.788008 0.790341 0 0.061978 0.094066 0.211863 0.068039 0.007205 0.009447 0.15453 0.14107 0 0.271819 0.12226 0.047014 0.220482 0.400299 0.375432 0.011523 0.150917 0 0 0 0.002978 0.004808 0 0 0 0 0.008603 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.991397 0.728181 0.87774 0.950008 0.774709 0.599701 0.624568 0.988477 0.849083. 26., 0. 98
..... LQ 1 LQ 1.., LQ 1,.,. LQ 1,,.. 4. 1). RAS. 5 99
4..... 4 26, 104 (104 104) 0,,., LQ 1. ( pp204-234. ). 100
6 C H A P T E R 1.. 1, (output multiplier), (income multiplier), (employment multiplier).,,.,. 2. 1. ij ( O j ). 6 101
O j = n i = 1 ij (6-1), (column). 4 < 6-1>.. 1,,, 3... 2.7114 2.1939... < 6-1> 1 1.79296 2.09571 2.21937 1.87274 2 2.43086 2.43595 2.22913 2.14994 3 2.37162 3.21816 2.73949 2.46290 4 2.54690 2.96595 2.87937 2.83829 5 2.36603 3.08720 3.03324 2.78513 6 2.11394 2.73926 2.72182 2.54367 7 2.08692 2.96447 2.47857 2.83862 8 2.31472 3.02212 2.61994 3.09760 9 2.37476 2.94610 2.56693 2.78234 10 1 2.85375 3.88736 3.21934 3.34091 11 2.47632 3.36473 2.93120 2.96612 12 2.48467 3.42128 2.88988 3.01694 102
( ) 13 2.79351 3.17331 2.86299 3.06491 14 2.45374 3.08598 2.75786 2.79209 15 2.33779 3.01614 3.15945 3.14931 16 2.41262 3.08379 2.82679 2.91876 17 1.88623 2.37358 2.37768 2.22195 18 2.13023 2.71341 2.54982 2.58327 19 2.00305 2.13842 2.06581 1.93124 20 2.38868 2.93741 2.55863 2.57273 21 1.95968 2.64786 1.91771 2.49741 22 1.68077 1.92016 1.88001 1.83700 23 1.60356 1.79395 1.74599 1.74315 24 1.68579 1.69770 1.71548 1.80153 25 1.72367 1.88933 1.94343 1.79408 26 1.76823 1.87767 1.80310 1.89781 2.19388 2.71142 2.48819 2.51925 3. 1. j (simple houshold income multiplier) - H j. - H j = n + 1 i = 1 a n + 1, i ij (6-2) a, ( w) (x). Ȳ j. 6 103
- Y j = - H j a n + 1, i (6-3),,,.. (1.80566) (1.01276). 45) < 6-2> 1 0.40884 0.26877 0.23051 0.23830 2 0.43095 0.32534 0.33319 0.95746 3 0.30332 0.32206 0.26193 0.37649 4 0.49686 0.49419 0.33362 0.84022 5 0.46267 0.40489 0.30763 0.56325 6 0.43564 0.43729 0.35581 1.80566 7 0.41344 0.27010 0.38590 0.77585 8 0.39769 0.37711 0.27788 0.55689 9 0.44248 0.38603 0.31935 0.68446 10 1 0.46932 0.30774 0.37443 0.52849 11 0.49095 0.39576 0.37608 0.77407 12 0.52977 0.46658 0.37590 0.80554 13 0.40387 0.41055 0.24446 0.66321 14 0.53320 0.45151 0.34884 0.82095 15 0.66353 0.38772 0.38326 0.75712 16 0.47303 0.46966 0.34056 1.01276 17 0.66279 0.24189 0.27445 0.43632 18 0.51819 0.51737 0.47709 0.62013 19 0.35533 0.33502 0.34667 0.38906 20 0.40222 0.37796 0.39535 0.50763 21 0.46757 0.38300 0.47474 0.53858 22 0.38336 0.31937 0.33521 0.39872 23 0.49373 0.64537 0.64668 0.74093 24 0.32666 0.23267 0.29438 0.32245 25 0.75672 0.77311 0.74128 0.84117 26 0.60391 0.60750 0.56998 0.67569 45)... 104
.,.,,,,.. 4. ( E j ) ( ) ( w).. E j = n i = 1 W n + 1, i ij (6-4) 0.03918 0.022 0.025..,,,, 0.05..,. 0.01... 6 105
< 6-3> 1 0.01022 0.00806 0.00816 0.00656 2 0.05879 0.01588 0.01499 0.02321 3 0.03772 0.01875 0.01428 0.01354 4 0.04492 0.03202 0.02057 0.02697 5 0.04909 0.02553 0.01783 0.01691 6 0.02902 0.04156 0.02415 0.03917 7 0.01283 0.01335 0.01492 0.01904 8 0.05031 0.01467 0.01085 0.01218 9 0.04527 0.02030 0.01542 0.01984 10 1 0.04152 0.01543 0.01608 0.01395 11 0.06333 0.02625 0.02204 0.02220 12 0.05450 0.02634 0.02172 0.02104 13 0.03038 0.02511 0.01272 0.01752 14 0.05175 0.04236 0.02214 0.02580 15 0.11374 0.01584 0.01847 0.01872 16 0.04903 0.02796 0.02331 0.03173 17 0.02035 0.00940 0.01052 0.01143 18 0.03132 0.01601 0.01399 0.01645 19 0.03307 0.04481 0.04722 0.04517 19 0.03307 0.04481 0.04722 0.04517 20 0.04716 0.05650 0.05663 0.05929 21 0.02722 0.02171 0.04128 0.02634 22 0.01252 0.01005 0.01521 0.01538 23 0.01541 0.02624 0.02450 0.02944 24 0.01664 0.01608 0.01639 0.01628 25 0.03127 0.03983 0.03702 0.03843 26 0.04132 0.04672 0.04359 0.03951 0.03918 0.02526 0.02246 0.02408 106
7 C H A P T E R 1..,. (Regression analysis) (Econometrics). (constant returns to scale), (isoquant).. RAS LQ. 7 107
.,. 3. < 7-1> 1 RAS,, 2 LQ, LQ 3 1 RAS, 2 (location quotient). 3. RAS. (3 ) ( ) 4.. 4. (5 ),, 108
.... (6 ), ( LQ). 2.. RAS LQ.,. RAS...... 7 109
.......,... 1.. 2.. 3.. 110
. 2000.. :.. 1994.. :.. 1982.. :.. 1984. 1980. :.. 1984. 1980. :.. 1983.. :.. 1993. -. :.,. 1997.,. 1996. -.. 12 1.., 2000. 15 27..,. 1994. Gravity. 3.. 1992. :.. 27 4.. 1990.... 2001.. :.. 1997. 1 -. : 111
. 1996. 1995. :.. 2000.. :.. 1996.. :.. 1992. MRIO... 1994.. :.. 2001.. :.. 1994.. 1994 1.. 1998. MRIO... 1994.. 31 2.. 2000... 1996.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 1999.. :.. 2000.. :.. 2000.. :.. 2000. (MRIO). :. 1993. 1990 ( ). :. 112
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SUMMARY Development of Regional Input- OutputAnalysis Model( ) Sang - Woo Park, Jong - Y eol L ee The regional input-output table performs a crucial role in identifying the industrial relationships and predicting the effect of investment in an industrial sector on other sectors including itself. The usefulness of the table has induced significant effort to produce more stable and accurate input-output coefficients at regional level. The regional input-output table has, however, been produced only intermittently by several organizations and researchers for their own purposes becau se to produce a table is an expensive and time-consuming task at regional level as well as for nation. There is necessity to improve a method to facilitate regional input-output analysis. The fundamental goal of this research is to develop a regional input-output model that provide a region with a table of input-output coefficients with less effort than previous models. The coefficients should describe accurate relationships between inputs and outputs for a particular economy. This research also aims to carry out experimental SUMMARY 117
regional input-output table based on the model suggested in thisresearch to examine its' practicability. This research has seven chapters. Following the introductory material in Chapter One, Chapter Tw o summarized the theoretical background, and some of more widely used general approaches were examined. Overall procedures of regional input-output table construction w ere explored. Chapter Three reviewed previous researches. Individual approaches for technical coefficients or regional trade were explored. Besides this, the characteristics of regional input-output analysis were discussed to compare with national input-output analysis. Chapter Four proposed a new model combining RAS, Location qu otient, Gravity, and Entropy (LOGE) model. In the absence of an input and output table at regional level, one has to depend on the national coefficients. RAS method was suggested to adapt a national coefficients for a different economy at regional level to produce regional technical coefficients with simplifying input data. The surplu s or deficiency of product in each industrial sector at each region was assessed u sing LQ. The measurement of surplus in a region was distributed into regions that had deficiencies by regional trade rate. The interregional trade was constrained by the amount of surplus or deficiency in each sector at each region. The results of regional trade were aggregated to generate regional trade coefficients with adding internal trade of each region. Finally, regional input and output coefficients were produced according to the result that the regional technical coefficients were adjusted by the regional trade coefficients. Chapter Five examined the su ggested model in the previous chapter. The regions for experimental input-output table were composed of four such as Seoul, Incheon, Kyounggi and other. The industrial sectors in this experiment were classified into 26. The national input-output coefficients were adjusted into four regions' technical coefficients with RAS method. The result was modified by LOGE model suggested in this 118
study to estimate regional input-output coefficients. In Chapter Six, the stability and the reasonableness of experimental input-output coefficients were tested for four regions by several ways. Finally, Chapter Seven gives the overall conclusions and suggestions for future studies of regional input-output analysis. This research produced a new method of regional input-output analysis specifically designed for a non survey method. An important part of this work is to improve the RAS method that is adaptive with much less information. This method makes possibility to save a lot of time and effort, and activate regional input-output analysis study. LOGE model results in progress at reflecting regional trade on input-output analysis. It takes the advantages for LQ and entropy approaches and eliminates the limits of them partially. The new method results in reasonable result. How ever, the research represents a method in developing regional input-output analysis specifically non-survey method. Future work should consider several issues to improve results, such as more accurate regional technical coefficients, and regional trade, etc. SUMMARY 119