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1 A B,, D, E, F A.. B.. D. E. F.

2 .,. 1980,, ,.....,.., (price-cap regulation) - 1 -

3 .,,,., SLS

4 ...,. 1). Denny, Fuss & Waverman(1981) Divisia,,. Kiss(1983), Denny, et al., Tornqvist,. Nadiri & Schankerman(1981) Divisia,.,,.,, (1994- ), (1995), (1995) (1996). (1994) , (1996) ) (1994), pp

5 ., (1995) Staranczak, Sepulveda, Dilworth and Shaikh(1994) , Pacific Telesis, Bell Atlantic, NYNEX, DBPT, DGT, Telefonica FT 8., (1995). Oniki, Oum, Stevenson and Zhang(1994). (1994) (1996). 9.7%, 2.8%.,,.,

6 .... (aggregation) Divisia,.., (F*) (Y*).. Divisia Y * F *.. Y * = j P j Y j R Y j (1), P j j, Y j, Y j, R = j P j Y j., F * = i w i X i X i (2), w i, X i, X i, = i w i X i., TF P = Y * / F *, - 5 -

7 ( T F P ). T F P = Y * - F * (3) (PFP, Partial Factor Productivity) ( F i ) ( Y * ), Divisia PFP. PF P = Y * / F i (4) PF P = Y * - F i (5), (discrete), Tornquvist. log Y = log ( Y t Y t - 1 ) = 1 2 j ( r j t + r j, t - 1 ) log ( Y j t Y j, t - 1 ) (6) Y j t t Y j, r j t = P j t Y j t / Y j. j P j t Y j t t log F = log ( F t F t - 1 ) = 1 2 j ( s j t + s j, t - 1 ) log ( X j t X j, t - 1 ) (7) X j t t X j, s j t = w j t X j t / X j. j w j t X j t t (8) (3) - 6 -

8 T F P = log Y - log F (8) < 1>. 2) < 1>,., Tornquvist, Gollop & Jorgenson(1980) (capital service index). 3) < 1> T F P , %, 7.17% %, 2) 1. 3)

9 %., %, %. 4) %, 13.64%, 0.05%., 10%, % %, 3.33% % %, %.,., % 7.17% %, %, 4.01%.., Tornquvist 4) 1982, ,,

10 ,. Tornquvist

11 .,,,.,. NTT Oniki, Oum, Stevenson & Zhang(1994). 5) Pindyck Rotemberg(1983). m in K t E {t = 0 R t [ ( w i, t, K t, I t ) + w k, t K t ] } (9) R t,, 6) w i, t, Y, K, w k, t, I t = K t - K t - 1. I (quasi-fixed),. (9) (intertemporal dynamic optimization problem) (Euler s condition). X i = w i (10) 5) Oniki, Oum, Stevenson & Zhang(1994) Pindyck & Rotemberg(1983) ( ) NTT, Denny, Fuss & Waverman(1981) TFP NTT TFP. Oniki. 6) (quasi-fixed)

12 t K t + w k, t + t I t I t K t + E [ R t + 1 R t t + 1 I t + 1 I t + 1 K t ] = 0 (11) (10) X i. (11) t t+1 t. (translog cost function),. 7) ln = a a i I 2 + a T E T E + a l ln w l + a m ln w m + a k ln K + a y ln Y + + b lm ln w l ln w m b ll( ln w l ) b kk ( ln K ) b m m ( ln w m ) b yy ( ln Y ) 2 + b ky ln K ln Y + b lk ln w l ln K + b m k ln w m ln K (12) + b ly ln w l ln Y + b m y ln w m ln Y + c ra tio ln R atio I, 8) TE, 9) w l w m, K Y R atio. 1. 7) (TE) Solow 2. 8) (I). 9),,

13 a l + a m = 1, b ll + b lm = b m m + b lm = 0, b lk + b m k = b ly + b my = 0 (13) (12) (10). S i = ln ln w i (14) Si i. 10) (11), (12), (14) (11) (perfect foresight), (11), (11), (12), (14) (instrument variable) 3SLS. (14), Iterative 3SLS (singularity),.. 11),. 30,,.. < 2>. < 2> -1 (Ratio), Tornquvist, -2 Tornquvist ) Xi = / wi, wi / wixi/ = Si = (wi/)( / wi) = ln/ lnwi 11) EVIEWS Iterative 3SLS

14 ,, -2. (TE) (-). (I). (Ratio) (-).,,., (concave) (convex) 12) )14) 12) ) (-), (+) 2. 14) (+)

15 < 2> ( ) coefficient Iterative 3SLS 1/ 2/ I-1 I-2 II-1 II-2 constant I 2 TE WL WM l nk l ny WL 2 WM 2 WL*WM l nk 2 l ny 2 l nk*l ny WL*l nk WM*l nk WL*l ny WM*l ny l nratio * * (92.64) -7.84E- 15 (-0.80) * * (-3.35) * * (6.74) * * (6.74) ** (-8.45) ** (10.51) (-0.53) (-0.53) (0.53) * * (-4.15) (-0.08) ** (2.38) (1.29) (- 1.29) (- 1.23) (1.23) * * (43.82) -8.83E- 15 (-0.90) ** (-4.57) * * (7.36) * * (7.36) ** (-8.84) * * (10.99) (- 1.35) (- 1.35) (1.35) ** (-4.14) (-0.89) * * (2.32) (1.67) (- 1.67) (- 1.57) (1.57) ** (-3.27) * * (91. 64) E- 15 ( ) * * ( ) * * (6.50) * * (6.50) * * ( ) * * (8.95) ( ) ( ) (0.66) * * ( ) (0. 16) (1.85) (1.03) ( ) ( ) (0.97) * * (38.68) E- 15 (- 0.75) * * (- 4.98) * * (6. 89) * * (6. 89) * * ( ) * * (9.48) (- 1.08) (- 1.08) (1. 08) * * (- 3.28) (- 0.49) (1. 70) (1. 41) (- 1.41) (- 1.34) (1. 34) * * (- 2.67) 1/ = Tornquvist. 2/ =. 3/ 5% = ** 4/ ( ) t

16 ... Denny, Fuss & Waverman(1981) Nadiri & Schankerman(1981), (15),,. T F P = [ 1 - Y T ] Y - [ w K K + K T - ] K T [ I di `+ T E d T E + R a tior atio] (15) y = ln ln Y, k = ln ln K, I = ln I TE = ln T E, ra tio = ln ln R atio. 15) (15) ( [ ( 1 - / T ) Y ] Y). ( - [ ( w k K + k )/ T ] K), ( w K K ),. ( - ( / T ) I di ), ( - ( / T ) T E d T E ) 15) (17)

17 ( - ( / T ) R a tio R atio). < 3> , 7.17% 7.77%, 1.86%., 0.03% ,. 7.17% 6.66%, 2.39%, 1.34% , %, 80., %, %,, %

18 %, % %,., ,. < 3> (TFP) (Iterative 3SLS) T F P I I I II II II %, % % %, % %

19 . 90,

20 ...,, , Tornquvist.,, %.,,,.. Tornquvist, GNP,,

21 , 1998.,

22 1. : 1...,,,,,,,,,, 12. (1996), 1982, 12. Tornquvist g t = ln ( Y t Y t - 1 ) = 1 2 j (r j, t + r j, t - 1 ) ln ( Y j, t Y j, t - 1 ) (i) gt Yj,t rj,t : t : t j : t j. (i) (ii). TYt = TYt-1 exp{ gt } (ii) TYt = Tornquvist

23 , ,,,,,,, 7.,,. (A), < -1> I i, t = A i, t - A i, t - 1 (A) A i, t = i t. R I i, t = I i, t P i, t (B) Pi,t, RIi,t.., ( K i, t ). K i, t = T = 0 i = ( 1 - i ) R I i, t - = ( 1 - i ) K i, t R I i, t ()

24 < 1-1> * ( 66 75) ( 75 95) GNP deflat or GNP deflat or PPI( ) PPI(, '66 '80) PPI(, '80 '95) PPI( ) PPI( ) : (1996).. Tornquvist, Gollop & Jorgenson(1980). 1) : Tornquvist,,,,,,, 7 Tornquvist.,. g t = ln K t - ln K t - 1 = i 1 2 ( v i, t + v i, t - 1 ) [ ln K i, t - ln K i, t - 1 ] ()

25 , v i, t = R i, t K i, t / R i, t K i, t, R i, t =. (rental price) (1996). R i, t = P i, t i P i, t (D) , (1991), i. Tornquvist. TKt= TKt-1 exp { g t t } (E) TKt = Tornquvist 2) :, Gollop & Jorgenson(1980).. ln K S t - ln K S t - 1 = i v t [ ln K S i, t - ln K S i, t - 1 ] (F) v t = 1 2 [ v i, t + v i, t - 1 ], v i, t = R i, t K i, t / i R i, t K i, t, R i, t =, K S i, t =. (H), (I) (J)

26 K S i, t = Q i K i, t - 1 (H) K t - 1 = i K i, t - 1 (I) K S t = Q t K t - 1 (J) (A) (K). ln Q t - ln Q t - 1 = i v t [ ln K i, t ln K i, t - 2 ] - [ ln K t ln K t - 2 ] (K) Q t (J) ( ), ' (1996)', ' ' ' '.... = + = / = / 4..,

27 ,..,.. = + = = / 5.. F = S L L + S M M + S K K L, K, M.,,.. = + + S L S M S K ( ) = / ( ) = / ( ) = /

28 2... w i, Y, K, TE R atio (1). = g ( w i, t, Y t, K t, I t, TE, R atio ) (1) (1) t (2). d d t = i + g w i g I I t w i t + + g Y g T E Y t + T E t g K + K t g R atio R a tio t (2) (2) ( 1 / ), = 1 d d t = i + w i w i + 1 Y T E d T E + Y Y + K R a tio K K + 1 R a tio R atio I di (3) (3), = w i X i t (4)

29 . = 1 d dt = i w i X i w i + i w i X i X i (4) (4) (3) (5). 0 = - = - + i T T w i X i w L L T w K K T X i + Y Y + K K + I di + T E d T E + R a tio R atio L - T w M M T M - T w K K T K + Y Y + K K + I di + TE d T E + R a tio R a tio K (5) y = ln ln Y, k = ln ln K, I = ln I TE = ln T E, ra tio = ln ln R atio., T F P = Y - F (5) (6). T F P = [ 1 - T Y ] Y - [ w K K + K T - ] K T [ I di `+ T E d T E + R a tior a tio] (6)

30 3. < 3-1> I

31 < 3-2> I

32 < 3-3> II

33 < 3-4> II

34 1.,. 2., 1987,. 3., (1991),,, (1995),,. 5. (1996),,,. 6., (1996),,. 7. (1990.7) 8. (1995),, 94,. 9. (1994), -,. 10., ,. 13.,, (1994),, Denny, M., M. Fuss and L. Waverman (1981) "the Measurement and Interpretation of Total

35 Factor Productivity in Regulated Industries, with an Application to anadian Telecommunications", In owing, T.G. and R.E. Stevenson (eds.) Productivity Measurement in Regulated Industry, Reading, M.A. : Academic Press. 16. Gollop, F. M. and Dale W. Jorgenson(1980)."U.S. Productivity Growth by Industry, ", New Develope in Productivity Measurement and Analysis, NBER, Studies in Income and Wealth Volume Oniki, Hajime, Tae Hoon Oum, Rodney Stevenson, Yimin Zhang,(1994) "The Productivity Effects of the Liberalization of Japanese Telecommunication Policy", The Journal of Productitivity Analysis, Kiss, Ferenc(1983), "Productivity Gains in Bell anada", in ourville, L., A. de Fontenay and R. Dobell(Eds.) Economic Analysis of Telecommunications : Theory and Application, North-Holland. 19. Nadiri, M. I. and M. A. Schankerman(1981), "The Structure of Production, Technological hange, and the Rate of Growth of Total Factor Productivity in the U.S. Bell System", In owing, T.G. and R.E. Stevenson (eds.) Productivity Measurement in Regulated Industry, Reading, M.A. : Academic Press. 20. Pindyck, R.S. and J.J. Rotemberg.(1983) "Dynamic factor demands and effects of energy price shocks. American Economic Review,73, pp Staranczak, G.A., E.R. Sepulveda, P.A. Dilworth and S.A. Shaikh,(1994) "Industry Structure, Productivity and International ompetitiveness : The ase of Telecommunications", Information Economics and Policy, vol.6,

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에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 10, Number 1, March 2011 : pp. 1~24 국내화력발전산업에대한연료와자본의대체성분석 1 2 3 ~ 4 5 F F P F P F ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 6 ln ln ln ln ln 7 ln

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