에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 13, Number 2, September 2014 : pp. 131~169 구조변화를고려한우리나라전력소비의 변동성증가에관한연구 131
132
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max ln exp 136
< 표 1> 구조변화에따른비조건부분산 137
max max 138
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max max 145
.15 [ 그림 1] 우리나라전력소비증가율 ( 로그차분 ).10.05.00 -.05 -.10 -.15 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 146
< 표 2> 자료들의연도별변동성 147
148
< 표 3> 전력소비의조건부평균과조건부분산의구조변화검정결과 < 표 4> 전력소비의비조건부분산변화 149
150
[ 그림 2] 부문별전력소비증가율및 Growth Contribution 151
< 표 5> 부문별전력소비증가율의변동성변화 152
153
< 표 6> 전력소비증가율에대한다수의구조변화검정결과 < 표 7> 부문별전력소비의변동성변화 154
< 표 8> 생산 가격충격을고려한전력소비증가율의변동성변화 155
156
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< 표 9> 기온충격을고려한전력소비증가율의변동성변화 158
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접수일 (2014 년 3 월 31 일 ), 게재확정일 (2014 년 9 월 4 일 ) 161
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< 부표 1> 부문별 연도별전력소비와관련변수들간의상관관계 166
< 부표 2> 부문별전력소비와 GC 에대한구조변화검정결과 < 부표 3> 생산 가격및각충격에대한구조변화검정결과 167
< 부표 4> 부문별전력소비증가율및 GC 에대한추정결과 < 부표 5> 개별충격을고려한전력소비모형추정결과 168
ABSTRACT This study examines volatility changes of electricity consumption in South Korea. The results of empirical analysis using quarterly data from 1970:1 to 2013:2 shows the volatility increase. Structural changes of conditional mean and variance result in this increase. Electricity use in industrial, commercial service and residential sector are examined for identifying the main sources of the increase. With respect to the reasons of these changes, economic shocks, such as GDP and price of electricity, and temperature shock, such as HDD CDD, are checked. The specific results show that the main source which have charge of the volatility increase is commercial service sector whose electricity consumption has a relatively large proportion in its total energy use. In addition, increase in the effect of GDP, Price and temperature shock to the electricity use leads to the volatility expansion. These empirical results suggest that effective management in the volatility of electricity consumption should consider the effect of economic climatic shock as well as the volatility of electricity use itself. Key Words : Electricity consumption, Volatility change, Multiple structural breaks analysis, economic climatic shock JEL Codes : C22, C34, Q43 169