특집논문 4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는 미해군의분산해양작전 정호섭 * 1) Ⅰ. 들어가면서 Ⅱ. 미해군의분산해양작전과전력소요 Ⅲ. 혁신기술을지향하는전력건설 Ⅳ. 예상되는장애물 Ⅴ. 결론및함의 ( 含意 ) Abstract US Navy s Distributed Maritime Operation looking for Technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution Era Recently, US naval forces are developing a new way. In dealing with the A2/AD strategy of China, the US navy is particularly trying to build forces, such as Ghost Fleet(unmanned maritime systems), new frigates, based on the technologies of the 4th industrial revolution era in its pursuit of Distributed Maritime Operation(DMO). DMO is designed to complicate surveillance and targeting capability of Chinese navy, and to improve survivability of US forces by distributing many, small platforms equipped with strengthened lethality. By integrating these new tools with legacy forces via networking, the US navy is also trying to accomplish an effect of quick build-up in both quality and quantity terms, and to defeat challenge from the Chinese navy. Although there exist some obstacles to overcome, this new approach in US naval build-up has many implications for the security of Republic of Korea as well as for the maritime security of the Asia-Pacific region. Key Words : US Naval Forces, Maritime Security in the Asia-Pacific Region, US-China Competition, Anti-Access/Area Denial(A2/AD), Distributed Maritime Operation, Unmanned Maritime Systems *, ),,, jhs-90012@naver.com
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) Ⅰ. 들어가면서. ( ), 11 355. 7,500 US$ 2020 ( ) 2,056 2025 (Truman) ( 同 ) 2024 (Office of the Navy Chief of Information, US Navy, 2019; Kenney, 2019). (hypersonic) (AI), 4. 65, ( 年 ) 10 25 250 300 (Eckstein, 2019i).,. 12 2020 11 10 (Eckstein, 2019e).,., ( ) 2024 68 100, 2,000 (Large USV) 10 (ghost fleet) 2 4 (LaGrone, 2019b). USV (VLS). 4 17m (11m RHIB 28
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전 Cyclone PC ), USV 1, (Harkins, 2019b)., FFG(X) 20 2030 ( 同 ) ( )., USV, UUV FFG(X).,,?? Ⅱ. 미해군의분산해양작전과전력소요, USV, UUV FFG(X) 4 / (A2/AD: Anti-Access/Area Denial) ( 主 ). 1), (numerous), (small) (unmanned), 對 1) A2/AD ( 對美 ). ( 反介入, counter-intervention).., (anti-access)., (area denial) (, 2011, pp. 5-32; O Rourke, 2011, p. 89). 29
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ),.,..,, (LCS: littoral combat ship). 2002 9.11 (CSG: Carrier Strike Group) ( 中東 ) (power projection from the sea ).., (readiness). ( 戰費 ). 2) (, 2018, pp. 5-23). 2), 2002 2017,,, 2.8 US$ (Mehta, 2018). 15 1,866.,, 2017 2011 US$,., 9.11 5.9 US $ 48 ( 7,000, 8,000, 10, 244,000, 10 ) (Grisales, 2018). 30
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전. 2017 (National Security Strategy) 2018 (National Defense Strategy) (high-end warfighting) 4 (Colby & Miller, 2019).,,, A2/AD, 240 (Friedberg, 2018). (home team) ( 內線 ), (Haddick, 2014, p. 203). 2019 6, 289. 30 600., 3. (Modly, 2019)., 11 355. 355 (fantasy) (Werner, 2018).. ( 思考 ). (DMO: distributed maritime operations) 31
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ). 2018 12 John Richardson A Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority, Version 2.0.. 2017 1 (Distributed Lethality).,, (Commander, Naval Surface Forces, US Navy, 2017)., (If it floats, it fights) (Eyer & McJessy, 2019). A2/AD (CSG: carrier strike group) 高 (package) (ISR) 4 ( ) ( 重心, centers of gravity) (Garrett-Glaser, 2018). ( 數 ), (tools),., AI,, (Vincent, 2019). DF-21D, DF-26, ( 數的 ), (Grady, 2019, 2018)., 3), 32
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전. A2/AD.,,,,. (space based sensor arrays) (directed energy weapons).,,,,. (Air-Sea Battle) (, 2011, pp. 5-32). 355,., A2/AD (survivable) (lethal), (many) (urgently) (viable)?. Richardson ( ), ( 早期 ) (Eckstein, 2019h). 2020 ( ) 4. A2/AD 2020 USV, UUV 3) 2018 James Mattis, Ford 2, (Seligman, 2019). 33
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) FFG(X),,, AI, (machine learning), (autonomy) 4,. 4), (legacy) 4 ( 大長程 ). 355 +(plus) (Modly, 2019, p. 29). Ⅲ. 혁신기술을지향하는전력건설 (FSA: Force Structure Assessment) 2019. 2016 FSA 355. FSA FFG(X)., 30 (30-year shipbuilding plan), 2019 289 2024 314, 2034 355,. 5) 4) Patrick Shanahan ( ) (Eckstein, 2019g). 5) USV, UUV 355. Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Warfare System Requirements- OPNAV N9) US Navy. 2019. p. 4. 34
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전 1. 다수의소형무인체계 4 USV (Doornbos, 2019; Eckstein, 2019f; LaGrone, 2019b). Richardson 355 (Seck, 2018). 2020 ( ), USV,, 2020 4, USV, UUV.. ( ),,,,, (autonomy),. (Eckstein, 2019d). USV Sea Hunter USV UUV. Sea Hunter 44m (medium) USV ( 母基地 ) 4,500 90, 20 (kts) San Diego (Eckstein, 2019b). 2018 (NAVSEA) < 1> (LaGrone, 2019c), USV. USV,,, (medium) 35
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) USV, (small) USV, (very small) USV ISR. USV (game-changer) (situational awareness) (Larter, 2019e). < 그림 1> 미해군의 USV 구상 30 (30-year shipbuilding plan) ( 全 ),, -,,. 6),,, 36
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전 (Unmanned DMO).,?,,, FFG(X), (tender) (C2),.,,, (sensor) (weapon) /, / (sensors) (shooters). ( ) USV, (sensor),, (swarming) A2/AD.,,? 1,,, 2 ( 對地 ) (Ziezulewicz & Larter, 2019). ( 數 ). 6) Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Warfare System Requirements-OPNAV N9) US Navy. 2019. 37
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ).,.,. (LaGrone, 2019b).,,., USV (optionally) USV. USV ( 戰場 ) USV (ROE). (presence). USV UAV UUV ( 敵 ) ( 乘船 ). USV (sensor) (ISR) ( 逆 )ISR,,. USV, ( 無人 ) ( 有人 ), (Eckstein, 2018).,, (MIW: mine warfare). (get the man out of the minefield) (Larter, 2019a). (MH-53E), Avenger, EOD (ROV) (mammal) 38
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전 (MCM: mine counter-measures).. MH-60S (LCS), EOD, Swordfish, Kingfish UUV (Expeditionary) MCM (Lucas & Cameron, 2018, pp. 70-74). ( 船齡 ) 30 11 Avenger (LCS) LCS MCM (RMS: Remote Minehunting System),,. RMS UUV (RMMV: remote multi-mission vehicle) AQS-20A LCS (LaGrone, 2013). 10. USV(Common USV) UUV(knifefish) (UISS: unmanned influence sweep system). 7) UISS (module)., LCS AQS-20, (SSS: side scan sonar), (SAS: Synthetic Aperture Sonar) UISS,, /, USV, USV UISS (hunting) (sweeping) (Naval Today, 2019). 2019 2 (Boeing) Orca (Extra Large) 7) LCS MCM MH-60S, MQ-8B(Fire Scout), UISS Knifefish UUV (Office of the Navy Chief of Information, US Navy. 2016). 39
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) UUV 4 (Large Diameter) UUV (Werner, 2019). Orca UUV Echo Voyager UUV(, 17, 50, 3,700, 6,500nm, 70 ) (SAS) (MCM), (ASW), (SuW), (EW). UUV Virginia Orca,., LCS ( 母艦 ) USV UUV, USV UUV (Side Scan Sonar, Synthetic Aperture Sonar ) (,, ROV ) / (hunting) (sweeping),. 8) NATO. MMCM(Maritime Mine Counter Measure), USV(,, ROV, SAS, ), (UK Ministry of Defence & Harriett Baldwin, 2016)., / 8),. USV, UUV (autonomous robot minesweepers). (MCM), (REA: Rapid Environment Analysis), (Defense News, 2019, p. 4). 40
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전.. 70,. 2009 30 50,000 100,000 (Erickson, Goldstein & Murray, 2009: Nelson, 2018, p. 64 ). ( ), MCM. 3, MCM (Lucas & Cameron, 2018).,,., MCM. (MHC), (MSH), /, (MDV), (EOD), (ROV) (MSH, MHC),. MCM. (sonar), USV, UUV / MCM. 41
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) 2. 차세대소형수상전투함으로서호위함 FFG(X) (mix of ships) (Larter, 2019d). ( ) 2030 FFG(X) 20 1 13. 8 9 (Congressional Research Service, 2019; LaGrone, 2019a) FFG(X) (LCS), (Aegis) (CEC),,, (multi-mission) (32cell VLS), (LRASM: Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) (integrated Navy tactical battle network) (node). 9) FFG(X) (open architecture). FFG(X) (OOTWs) (Combatant Commands)., FFG(X) USV, UUV (tender) A2/AD (lethality) 9) (cruiser) ( 旣 ) (Eckstein, 2019h). 42
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전., FFG(X),,. (assets). 10) 3. 네트워크화및공통전투체계,,. (network),, (commonality) (Kreisher, 2019)., (super-connected), ( 電磁氣 ) (cross-domain interoperability). (nodes) (an agnostic network of weapons and sensors),, sensor-to-shooter (cycle), kill-chain 10) 2022 1,000 (patrol vessels, 30 ) 12. ISR(,, ) ( 供與 ) (Kusumoto & Robson, 2019). 43
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ). 1990 (AAW) (CEC: Cooperative Engagement Capability).., (common combat system). ( 艦種 )., (Aegis), Ford Ship Self-Defense System, LCS 2 (Larter, 2019g).,....,,,. iphone (open architecture) (Larter, 2019f).... 44
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전 (nodes) sensor-to-shooter cycle.,.., /,,,, (DEW: directed energy weapon), (nodes).,,, (platform-agnostic) (nodes),, (payload-centric). Ⅳ. 예상되는장애물,.. 1. 군 산 의회복합체 차원의저항, John McCain (military- industrial-congressional complex). 4 45
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) (Congress). Virginia Tim Kaine Ford, 20. Rob Wittman 前 (Larter, 2019c, p. 19). (Seapower and projection forces subcommittee) Joe Courtney (FSA) (mothball) (Larter, 2019c, p. 19). 2019 6 11 (Harkins, 2019a)., Thomas Callender,,, (Callender, 2019). 50,,, (Callender, 2019). Bill Merz 46
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전, ( 代案的 ), (distributed lethality), (cost-imposing) (Eckstein, 2019c),, (Harkins, 2019c).,. (sequestration),.,.,, (TTPs),, (Brose, 2019, p. 134). 2. 억제기능의약화,., Ohio (SSGNs) Orca/Echo Voyager (XLUUV) A2/AD 47
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ). (presence).,., (CSG).?..,, (ghost fleet)?... 11. 11 2 3 30 (surge)., 8 9 (Callender, 2019).., (reacting).,.,. Duterte (a has-been power) 48
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전. 2012 4 EEZ Scarborough Shoal, Duterte (Beech, 2018).. (Dickstein, 2019; Larter, 2019b).. ( ) 11 1,700 US$ (Gould, 2019).,, (FDO).. FSA (combatant commands) ( 戰域 ).. 3. 더높아진분쟁가능성, 4. 2018 9 30 (Spratly) Gaven Reef 49
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) (FONOPs) DeCatur 45. (Gershaneck & Fanell, 2019).,,,?. ( 誤認 )..., (Brose, 2019, p. 132).,., Philip Davidson 2018 4 (US Senate Armed Services Committee, 2018, p. 18). (O Connor, 2018). 50
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전 4. 윤리적저항. (killer robots). AI (Google). AI. ( 同 )., USV, ( 無人 ) ( 有人 ).,,., (Brose, 2019, p. 133).,. Ⅴ. 결론및함의 ( 含意 ),.,,, 51
국방정책연구제 35 권제 2 호 2019 년여름호 ( 통권제 124 호 ) ( 代替 ),,.,,, (platform-centric) / (payload-centric).,., 4 ( 質 ) ( 量 ),.. A2/AD (FONOPs) (ISR). (high-end warfighting). ( ) FFG(X)..?, (role model)..,. 52
4 차산업혁명기술을지향하는미해군의분산해양작전. ( 自力 )., (out-innovate). (disruptive) (risk)., ( 量 ) ( 質的 ).., 3,., USV, UUV (sonar) (AI) (ASW).. (interoperability)..?.. 53
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