99-53 21 (1) A Preliminary Study on the Optimal Modal Split of the National Transportation Systems ( )
99-53 21 (1) A Preliminary Study on the Optimal Modal Split of the National Transportation Systems ( )
5,.,.,,,,,..,.
6.. 21,.. (EU).,,,,. 21. 21,. 199912
7 5 13 1 17 1. 17 2. 18 3. 18 4. 19 5. 19 2 2 1 1. 21 2. 28 3. 33 3 37 1. 37 2. 53 3. 58
8 4 63 1. 63 2. 73 3. 80 4. 83 5 95 1. 95 2. 95 3. 98 4. 98 6 10 1 1. 101 5. 105 109 ABS TRACT 112 1 117 2 127
9 <2-1> 21 <2-2> 29 <2-3> 31 <2-4> 31 <2-5> 32 <2-6> 35 <2-7> 35 <3-1> 38 <3-2> 39 <3-3> 40 <3-4> 41 <3-5> 41 <3-6> 42 <3-7> 42 <3-8> 42 <3-9> 43 <3-10> 43 <3-11> 44 <3-12> 47 <3-13> 48
10 <3-14> 49 <3-15> 50 <3-16> 50 <3-17> 50 <3-18> 51 <3-19> 52 <3-20> 53 <3-21> 54 <3-22> 55 <3-23> 55 <3-24> 59 <3-25> SOC 60 <4-1> (1996) 64 <4-2> (1996) 65 <4-3> 65 <4-4> 66 <4-5> (1996) 67 <4-6> (1996) 68 <4-7> 68 <4-8> 69 <4-9> 71 <4-10> 71 <4-11> 72 <4-12> 73 <4-13> (1970-1996) 76 <4-14> 82 <4-15> 84
11 <4-16> 91 <4-17> 93
12 < 1-1> 20 < 2-1> 28 < 2-2> 33 < 2-3> 34 < 3-1> 47 < 3-2> 52 < 3-3> 56 < 3-4> 56 < 4-1> (1980-1994) 74 < 4-2> 79 < 6-1> 107
13 21,. 21,,. 60, 80.,,,,.
14. 1980.. 19801 GNP.. (ITS),, (Intermodalism),.,,,.,., ITS
15.,.. 2000., 1 21,., 2020 (O/ D)., 1,,,.,.,, 21 SOC.
17 1 1.,,..,, 21.,. 4,, SOC,,
18. 2. 21,,. 2000. 3. 21,,,.,,,,.,..
1 19 4. 21. 4. SOC. 5. 21 6,,,... < 1-1>.
20 < 1-1>
2 1 2 1.,,,,, 5 <2-1>. <2-1> 1945 1970 ( ( ) 1971 1980 1981 19901991 ( ) ( ( ) ) )
22 <2-1 > 1945 1970 <1961> 1971 1980 1981 1990 1991 1, 2, ( (68) (1,200km), 88 10 ( ) 2,3,4,, ( 5, ) (94) - - ( (69) 2 ( (88)
2 23 1) 1899 1945: 4330., 1,2,,. 191119381,2 24,500km ( 2.4%), 1945 25,550km, 199784,968km ( 62,866km)30%. 1898, 19051945 6,362km (2,642km) 1997 85%. 1883,, 3 1945 18,000 1997 (295,257 )6.1%. 2) 1970: (19541957), 13, 1 8, 22. (19581962),,, (86.7%82.1%), (9.7%14.9%), (3.6% 3.0%), (67.0%60.5%), (30.8%37.5%),
24 (2.2%2.0%). 1,2 5 (19611971),, (-km, -km ), (87.5%57.6%), (8.6%10.8%), (3.9%31.6%), (52.2%32.3%), (45.9%66.0%), (1.3%0.8%)., 6.25, (, ),,,. 1961, 1962 1967, 1968, 40,635km (14.2%). 1961, 1997 97% 3,020km 50%. 5 (1955 1959)1962 48,000 (1972), ( ), 1948 1969 ( ).
2 25 3) 1971 1980: 3,4 5 (197 11981),, (-km, -km ),. (32.3%23.7%), (66.0% 75.2%), (0.8%0.5%), (57.6%37.5%), (10.8%35.0%), (31.6%27.5%).,,,, ()., ( 70.7),,,, 19805km (34.6%) 60%. 19721976 2, 19771981 31.6%. 1970,. 2 (1988) 70 80, 2947,
26 1979 166117, 1980 (-km, -km)1997 5.8%, 3.4%. 4) 1981 1990: 5,6 5 (19811991),, (-km, -km ), ( ),, (23.7%25.6%), (75.2%71.5%), (0.5%0.3%), (37.5%19.6%), (35.0%46.9%), (27.5%33.4%).,, 88, ( )2,3,4,, 2 (). 5,6 5 (198 21991) 58,088km, 76.4%, 1980,. 20%.,,
2 27 1989 10. 5) 1991 : -km 9720.9%, 74.3%, 0.3%, 4.5%, -km 9710.8%, 50.4%, 38.6%, 0.1%.,,,, ( 94),. 1997 84,968km, ( 97 4,323km), 21. 199763.9% ( 97 295,257, 462,090 ),,.
28 2. 1),,,,,,,,,,,,.,,, < 2-1>. < >< ><>< > 1911 1938 1,2 19451,2 1970.7 5 1995 1905 1898, 1961.7 50% (1945) 18833(,,) 19555 1962 5 1969, 1988 1948 2, 1900 19101920 1930194019501960 1970198019902000 < 2-1>
2 29 2) (1) 190340() 1, 191119381,2 24,500km, 194525,550km ( 4.2%), 9784,968km ( 62,866km)30%. 1961, 1962 1967, 1968,, ( 70.7),,,. <2-2> 1903 1945 1969 1970 1903 1911 1938 (1,200km) 10 1,2, 88 : 25,550km : 40,244km : 84,968km (30% ) (30% ) : 62,866km : 1,067km : 3,864km (:74%) (: 4.2%) (: 9.6%) ( )
30 1980,, 199784,968km, ( 97 4,323km). (2) 1898, 1905, 1945 6,362km (2,642km) 1997 85%. 1961, 1997 97% 3,020km 50%. 19721976 2, 19771981 31.6%, 20%. 21.
2 3 1 <2-3> 1898 19041905 19451945 19701971 19901991 1898 1905 1961 - - :2,642km :3,020km : ( 85% ) ( 3,121km 97% ) (20%) : 3,118km - (3) 1883,, 3 1945 18,000 1997(295,257 )6.1%. 5 (19551959)1962 1997 295,257, (), 1970. <2-4> 1883 1945 1883,, 5 3, : 18,000 (6.1% ) : 295,257
32,,,. (4) 1948 ( )1969, 2 (1988) 70 80, 2947, 1979 166117, 1980(-km, -km)1997 5.8%, 3.4%. 1989 10,,. <2-5> 1948 1969 1970 1948 2( (88)) ( (69))
2 33 3. 1) 401980, -km60 52.2%, 46.0%, 1.6%, 0.2%9720.9%, 74.3%, 0.3%, 4.5%. 60, 6.25 1 5. < 2-2>
34 2), -km 6387.5%, 8.6%, 3.9%, 0.0%9710.8%, 50.4%, 38.6%, 0.1%. 80,,. 70,,. < 2-3>
2 35,,. <2-6> 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 (%) (km) 25,550 ( :16,241) 40,244 46,950 56,715 84,968 2.3 (km) (%) 1,067 (4.2) 3,864 (9.6) 15,599 (33.2) 40,544 (71.5) 62,866 (74.0) 8.1 (5.7) (km) (km) 6,362( :2,642) - 3,020 5,500 3,199 6,007 3,121 6,435 3,118 6,580 0.3 0.6 ( ) 18,000( :10,000) 18,781 82,261 224,323 359,929 6.0 : 19601945 :, ( ), <2-7> ( : km, km) 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 4,344 46.0 20,045 66.0 72,391 75.2 126,338 71.5 148,247 74.3 4,935 52.2 9,819 32.3 22,785 23.7 45,361 25.6 41,764 20.9 147 1.6 241 0.8 479 0.5 524 0.3 571 0.3 21 0.2 257 0.9 557 0.6 4,447 2.5 9,052 4.5 429( 63) 8.6 1,441 10.8 10,085 35.0 34,780 46.9 59,082 50.4 4,358( 63) 87.5 7,709 57.6 10,815 37.5 14,494 19.6 12,710 10.8 194( 63) 3.9 4,232 31.6 7,927 27.5 24,737 33.4 45,299 38.6 0.2( 63) 0.0 1.5 0.0 6 0.02 79 0.1 149 0.1 : 1980, : ( ),
37 3 1...,,,,.,,,. 1).,.
38.. <3-1>. <3-1> :,,
3 39 2) (1). <3-2> 3. <3-2>,,,, km
40 (2),,.. /. <3-3>, 94km/ h, 80km / h, 71km/ h.,, 13.67%, 55.71%, 30.62%. <3-3> (km) 444.5 418.5 359.9 449.4 404.3 444.0 437.8 255.7 4:10 4:34 3:43 5:30 4:11 4:47 4:51 3:55 107 92 97 82 97 93 90 95 4:50 5:08 4:10 6:00 4:53 5:37-4:18 92 82 86 75 83 79-60 5:31 5:43 4:23 6:51 - - - 4:47 81 73 82 67 - - - 54 94 80 71 313.9 359.0 5:17 6:05 59 59 5:40-55 - 6:08 7:00 51 51 :,, 21, 1998
3 4 1 <3-4> () 15,323,095 62,440,773 34,320,747 112,084,615 (%) 13.67 55.71 30.62 100 :, ( ), 1998,, 79km / h, 80km / h, 80km/ h, 350km/ h. 4 57 4 40, 5 20, 1 5. 55 11. <3-5> (km/h) 79 80 80 350 23.6 (km/h) 150 180 100 - - 4:57 5:14 6:05-4:40 4:10 3:20-5:20 5:00 3:50-1:05 1:00 0:55 0:55 - - - 11:30 :,, 21, 1998, www.koreanair.co.kr, ( ), 1998 http:/ / www.kicc.co.kr/ info/ bus/ bus.htm
42 19700, 15700, 44300.. <3-6> ( : ) (km) 444.5 418.5 359.9 313.9 359.0 26,300 24,800 21,300 18,600 21,300 32,800 31,300 26,000 23,300 26,000 18,100 17100 14,700 12,800 14,700 24,000 23,000 18,000 16,100 18,000 - - 9,400 - - - - 12,900 - - :, www.korail.go.kr, 1999 <3-7> 6,000 11,100 15,700 11,900 14,100 9,200 () 8,700 16,400 23,400 17,700 20,900 13,500 1:50 3:50 5:20 3:55 5:20 3:50 : http:/ / www.kicc.co.kr/ info/ bus/ bus.html, 1999 <3-8> () 44,300 59,100 34,800 37,000 28,100 48,900 43,900 32,100 41,700 1:05 1:10 0:55 1:00 0:55 1:00 1:00 0:50 1:00 :, www.koreanair.co.kr, 1999
3 43 <3-9> 1 2 3 () 4 5 1,200 1,200 1,200 2,000 2,000 3,200 3,300 3,400 5,700 5,800 5,700 6,000 6,100 10,300 10,500 9,900 10,300 10,600 18,000 18,300 10,800 11,300 11,500 19,600 19,900 14,100 14,800 15,100 25,500 26,000 :, www.freeway.co.kr, 1999 <3-10> ( : / ) 91 92 93 94 95 96 13.60 13.87 13.89 13.43 12.86 12.97 :, www.kores.or.kr <3-11>1,,,,,. 961 1200 2 1.73, 30.
44 <3-11> Total 0 1100 500 1600 0:0 0:05 0:10 0:10 1:10 0:20 1:55 Total 500 1,300 500 2,300 0:10 0:10 0:10 2:20 0:30 1:00 0:20 Total (10km) (31.2km) (10km) 930 4100 930 5,960 0:10 0:20 0:10 0:40 Total 0 6,800 500 7,300 0:0 0:15 0:10 0:10 2:00 0:20 2:55 Total 500 6,000 500 7,000 0:10 0:07 0:10 0:30 1:50 0:20 3:07 Total (10km) (152.3km) (10km) 930 20,400 930 22,260 0:10 1:30 0:10 1:50 :,, 21, 1998, www.koreanair.co.kr, www.korail.go.kr, www.freeway.co.kr http:/ / www.kicc.co.kr/ info/ bus/ bus.htm
3 45 Total 0 13,200 500 13,700 0:0 0:15 0:10 0:10 3:50 0:10 4:35 Total 500 11,100 500 12,100 0:10 0:15 0:10 0:30 3:50 0:10 5:05 Total (10km) (288.5km) (10km) 930 37,000 930 38,860 0:10 3:00 0:10 3:20 Total 1,100 34,800 1,100 37,000 0:10 0:30 0:10 1:00 0:55 0:40 3:25 Total 0 26,300 500 26,800 0:0 0:15 0:05 0:10 4:10 0:30 5:10 Total 500 15,700 500 16,700 0:10 0:08 0:10 0:30 5:20 0:20 6:38 Total (10km) (428km) (10km) 930 54,400 930 56,260 0:10 4:20 0:10 4:40 Total 1,100 44,300 1,100 46,500 0:10 0:30 0:10 1:00 1:05 0:30 3:25
46 Total 0 24,800 0 24,800 0:0 0:30 0:10 0:10 4:34 0:10 5:34 Total 500 14,100 0 14,600 0:10 0:15 0:10 0:30 5:20 0:10 6:35-1( ) ( ) Total (10km) (453.4km) (57km) 930 53,300 5,200 59,830 0:10 4:30 0:45 5:25 Total 1,100 43,900 1,100 46,100 0:10 0:30 0:10 1:00 1:00 0:40 3:50 Total 500 21,300 500 22,300 0:05 1:00 0:10 0:20 5:17 0:20 7:12 Total 500 9,200 500 10,200 0:10 0:08 0:10 0:30 3:50 0:10 4;58 Total (10km) (229.6km) (3km) 930 31,200 300 32,430 0:10 2:40 0:05 2:55 Total 1,100 37,000 1,100 39,200 0:10 0:30 0:10 1:00 1:00 0:30 3:20
3 47 76.4 38.51.9865.8 1.16. 6,416 2.7, 1.5 1.35, 1.26. 16,554 2.581.87. <3-12> (/km) (/km) (/) 136.2 43 11,442 38.5 65 2,125 66.0 62 3,823 108.0 32 12,214 < 3-1>
48 167 165 98.8%. 100 59.9%, 16 9.6%, 28 16.8%.,,. <3-13> B/A C/A D/A E/A (%) (%) (%) (%) (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) 7 7 100.0 7 100.0 5 71.4 3 42.9 31 30 96.8 21 67.7 0 0.0 1 3.2 18 18 100.0 8 44.4 3 16.7 5 27.8 15 15 100.0 8 53.3 0 0.0 4 22.2 11 11 100.0 9 81.8 1 9.1 0 0.0 20 20 100.0 10 50.0 1 5.0 7 35.0 23 22 95.7 16 69.6 2 8.7 1 4.3 24 24 100.0 13 54.2 2 8.3 4 16.7 14 14 100.0 8 57.1 1 7.1 1 7.1 4 4 100.0 0 0.0 1 25 2 50.0 167 165 98.8 100 59.9 16 9.6 28 16.8 1997 343,159, 11,603673, 357, 26, 232, 285.
3 49 144.7, 772. 8.7, 3., 1997 246,452, 937 263 0.3810.0478. 62.2. <3-14> - 148,247 41,764 9,052 571 246,452 937 4 840 343,159 673 26 11,603 357 232 285 2.315 0.016 0.003 / - 0.078 0.009 0.026 0.500 1.392 0.718 6.5 / 0.047 0.381 58 0.280 2,314,916 4,540 175 () 2,045,152 62,925 40,892 50,234 () 47,336 3,345 96,850 - () 4,407,404 70,810 137,917 50,234 :, 1997 :,, 1998,, 1998,, 1992 (3),,. km.
50 4km 320 428 41.34. <3-15> (4 ) () 320 / 428 / : 98 97 :, 1998, 1998,, 1998 <3-16> <3-17>, 2.2. <3-16> (m) 13.2 23.4 30.6 37.8 45.0 52.2 59.4 (/1 / ) 4,012 14,330 21,495 28,660 35,825 42,990 50,155 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 :,, 1991 <3-17> (m) 13.2 22.3 30.9 40.6 49.2 58.9 67.5 (/1 / ) 21,000 42,000 63,000 84,000 105,000 126,000 147,000 3 4 5 6 7 :,, 1991
3 5 1 (Train).(,, 1998:37) <3-18> 4 2.8 7.3. <3-18> ( ) (4 ) (m) 9.3m 24.4m 12 50 1,000 750 40 4 10 3 4 15 3 10 20 15 360 1,800 540 20,000 11,250 14,400 7,200 5,400 1m 2,151 1,210 590 295 221 :,, 1995. 25p.,. 1995 20.6%24,442.7. 77.6%,,. 1000kcal 7.19-km0.4-km 18, 0.35-km 20.8.,
52 1000kcal10.24-km0.47 -km 21.6, 5.98-km 1.7. <3-19> ( ) (%) 18,962.2 77.6 453.8 1.9 3,163.8 7.6 1,862.9 12.9 24,442.7 100.0 (kcal/- km) 2,522.41 139.10-2895.54 5557.05 (kcal/- km) 2,111.67 97.69-167.16 2376.52 (- km/1000kcal) 0.40 7.19-0.35 0.18 (- km/1000kcal) 0.47 10.24-5.98 0.42 18.1 1.0-20.8-21.6 1.0-1.7 - :, :,,, 1997 77.6%18,962,. ( 3-2 ) < 3-2>
3 53 (4) :.,. CO2 43%, 20%. 3.4. <3-20> ( : g/ -km, -km) CO2 CO NOx CxHy 180 78 160 11 0.13 0.28 2.1 0.46 0.71 2.3 0.30 0.31 207 41 1,160 2.4 0.05 1.4 3.6 0.2 5.3 1.1 0.08 0.8 : C.C.E. 1995. Vers une tarification equitable et efficace dans les transports: Options en matiere d'internalisation des couts externes des transports dans I'U.E. Livre Vert. COM(95) 2.. O/ D.
54 1) (1) 751994O/ D O/ D 50km, 50km100km, 100km 200km, 200km300km, 300km400km400km.,,,, 75 11. 1998 248 O/ D., 1998.,,,. -, -. <3-21>. <3-2 1> (/) (/) 2.1 3.7 15.3 0.9 2.9 6.3 : :,, 1998
3 55, 1998. (2). ( 3-3, 3-4 ) <3-22> ( :, ) 50km 50~100km 100~200 200~300 300~400 400km 63,473 20,082 18,710 19,580 7,879 7,262 136,987 3,367,088 1,065,788 853,674 158,960 44,187 42,026 5,531,724 0 0.1 333 4,398 10,804 3,970 19,504 3,430,561 1,085,871 872,717 182,937 62,871 53,259 5,688 14,100 4,758 8,014 18,822 5,208 6,058 57,859 359,385 199,781 238,425 109,163 41,882 14,345 962,981 0 0 0.9 37 165 153 361 374,385 204,539 246,440 128,027 47,255 20,561 1,021,202 : 1994O/ D, 1998O/ D :,, 1999 <3-23> ( : %) 50km 50100km 100200km 200300km 300400km 400km 1.85 1.85 2.14 10.70 12.53 13.64 98.15 98.15 97.82 86.89 70.28 78.91 0.00 0.00 0.04 2.40 17.18 7.45 100 100 100 100 100 100 4.01 2.23 3.25 14.70 11.02 29.46 95.99 97.67 96.75 85.27 88.63 69.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.35 0.77 100 100 100 100 100 100
56 < 3-3> < 3-4>
3 57 2),,,,..,. 87 262km '97 4,323km 29.0%, 915 9718 20.1%., 97696 (GDP)16.5%, 97(GDP 10.7%) 1.6, 18 46., 1997 246,452, 937, 4, 840, 62.2., 1995 20.6%24,442.7
58. 77.6%,,.,,. 3. 1) 19701980.,..
3 59 2) 40. 5 196261991 30., 1 5 60.6%6 10.1%117.2% 6 79.6%. <3-24> ( : %) 1 2 3 4 5 6 1962-1966 1967-1971 1972-1976 1977-1981 1982-1986 1987-1991 60.6 28.7 29.4 21.7 12.1 10.1 17.2 52.0 51.6 47.1 46.7 79.6 / 22.2 15.5 16.3 15.0 10.6 9.2-3.8 2.7 16.2 30.6 1.1 :,, 1992 5, 55% 3, 5 14277 44,1683.2
60.,,.. <3-25> SOC ( :, %) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 17,555 21,049 28,396 32,444 40,833 61.1 56.4 57.0 54.4 55.6 4,720 7,303 7,973 10,598 13,574 16.4 19.6 16.0 17.8 18.5 2,500 3,810 6,500 8,292 8,399 8.7 10.2 13.1 13.9 11.4 1,089 2,079 3,200 3,628 4,452 3.8 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.1 2,874 3,075 3,714 4,671 6,147 10.0 8.2 7.5 7.8 8.4 28,738 37,316 49,783 59,633 73,405 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 23.5 30.3 35.4 42.2 24.6 26.4 :,, 1996
3 6 1.,. 3),,.,,.
63 4,.,.,.. 1. 1) (1)
64 15.5km / 5.52km / 10.6km /. 1 6.9km / 1.8km/. 0.31/ () 4.61/ (). <4-1> (1996) 143 ( ) 62 69 138 345 317 372 127 893 633 3099 304.4 14.1 11.7 6.9 15.5 8.78 5.52 6.33 8.20 15.29 7.73-10.6 (/ ) 4.61 (/) 1.44 0.75 0.31 0.68 1.05 1.52 3.10 1.63 1.77-1.40 :, OECD, 1998 http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm (, ),, (<4-2> ). 8 2.
4 65 <4-2> (1996) 3.4 (km) 2.4 3.1 10.3 12.6 16.1 16.9 2.8 32.3 41.4 141.3 14.4 0.33 0.45 0.31 1.16 0.32 0.28 0.29 0.18 0.55 0.51-0.54 (km/ ) 19.7 (/ ) 55.7 33.7 22.9 25.0 53.4 69.0 68.3 58.8 116.0-56.2 :, OECD, 1998 http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm (2). 100% 10 90%93.7%, 6.3%15. 92.9%94.7%. <4-3> ( :%) 93.5 94.2 96.1 92.7 92.5 92.9 94.7 91.4 91.9 91.8 93.7 6.5 5.8 3.9 7.3 7.5 7.1 5.2 8.6 8.2 8.2 : : http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm 6.3
66. 91.9% 67.2%, 66.2%58.2%. 37.6%21.0% 5.0%6.2%. 5.2. 33.2%. <4-4> ( : %) 75.0 82.9 90.3 62.4 91.9 85.3 85.0 58.2 67.2 66.2 77.9 12.7 6.2 9.7 37.6 5.0 9.2 7.5 2.9 21.0 15.9 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 33.2 2.4 14.4 2.6 10.9 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.4 7.3 5.6 9.3 3.4 : http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm 15.1 2.7 4.2
4 67 2) (1) 10 3,099km2.3 7,269km, 52.5 km/ 10.6 km/ 5.,. 0.39 / 28%. <4-5> (1996) ( ) 6420.3 849.1 7269.4 3635.1 (/ ) 24.2 28.3-52.5 (/) 0.68 0.09-0.39 :, OECD, 1998 http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm 190km10 141km 0.56km/ 10 0.54 km/. 9.9/ 10(56.2/ ).
68 <4-6> (1996) ( ) 176 14 190 94 (/ ) 0.66 0.45 0.56 (/ ) 18.4 1.4 9.9 : http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm (2) 1% 88.7%. 10%,. <4-7> ( : %) 88.9 88.4 88.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 10.5 11.3 10.8 : http/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm.,
4 69 35.8%49.5%. (10.7%) (18.7%). <4-8> ( : %) 29.7 41.9 35.8 40.9 58.0 49.5 10.7 0.1 5.4 18.7 - - : http/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm 3) (1) 1,160,000km, 9.2km /, 3.07/, 10 10 2. 20,300km, 0.16km/, 53.7/ 10 10 32%. 2.3, 1.7.
70 (2),,, 65.9%, 29.1%, 4.5%, 0.4% (Statistical Bureau Managem ent and Coordination Agency in Governm ent of Jap an, 1996).. 1960.,,, 51.5%, 4.5%, 0.2%, 43.8%. 11.4.. 4) (1) 78.0%22.0%,
4 71.. <4-9> (1996) ( : %) 78.0 93.7 99.4 69.4 22.0 6.3 0.6 30.6 : 1997. 82.4%17.6% 83.8%16.2%. 2. <4-10> (1996) ( : %) 82.4 83.8 42.0 92.0 17.6 16.2 58.0 8.0 1: 1997 2:
72 (2) 1.8km/ 10.6km / 9.2km / 20% 1 GNP8.8km / 6.9km/. 0.83km / km 2 59%, 27%. <4-11> (1996) 1) ( ) 82 304 3635 1160 1670 (/ ) 1.8 10.6 52.5 9.2 24.1 (/) 0.83 1.41 0.39 3.07 1.62 : 12 0.07km / 0.54km/ 13%, 44% (0.28km / ), (km / km 2 )..,
4 73. <4-12> (1996) ( ) 3.1 14.4 94 20.3 42.9 (/ ) 0.07 0.54 0.56 0.16 0.42 (/ ) 31.3 56.2 9.9 53.7 39.9 : 12 5)., 1996,,,,,,, 1 GNP,. (, ). 2.,.
74 1) (1) < 4-1> 1980199410 1.0. 102.2,, 3.0, 2.8, 2.5. 1014 2.2. 15 (ECMT, 1983/ 1998). 1) 1990. < 4-1> (1980-1994) 1),
4 75 1970 1996 10 237400km 306500km29.1% 17100km 15700km 8.2%. 10, 11299km11km. 1970 1996, 197010 13.9 12.6. 26.522.0 2.98.4. 1996 101970 10 19.6. 26.5 1970 10. 19701996 100.41 (1.75) (1.87) (0.06)(0.08). 1.10, 2, 1970.
76 <4-13> (1970-1996) (km) 1970 1996 1996 / / (km) (km) (km) (A) ((B-A)/A) (B) 12100 4232 2.9 14300 3380 4.2 0.48 62300 2352 26.5 71600 2349 30.5 0.15 432100 29527 14.6 633000 40826 15.5 0.06 139400 13668 10.2 345000 12284 28.1 1.75 792900 36117 22.0 893000 31852 28.0 0.28 284200 16069 17.7 317000 16014 19.8 0.12 30300 3591 8.4 69000 2850 24.2 1.87 72100 5870 12.3 77800 5881 13.2 0.08 191900 12203 15.7 272900 10300 26.5 0.68 357300 19691 18.1 372000 17128 21.7 0.20 237400 17100 13.9 306500 15700 19.6 0.41 1023600 27104 37.8 1160000 20300 57.1 0.51 40200 3194 12.6 82000 3100 26.5 1.10 : :, OECD, 1998,, 1997 http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm,, 1999 (2) 1970 10, 197088% 1996 93%, 1970 12% 19967%
4 77.,,, 197091.2%, 91.1%, 89.2%, 88.7% 1996 94.6%, 91.8%, 91.3%, 92.6%. 1970., 10 197019962.23.1%.,,, 19701996 1.8, 1.6, 2.0, 2.6. 6.6,. 15 19701996 82.4%, 2.5%, 8.2%, ( ) 0.9%, 6.0% (http/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm/, 1999). 1970, 1970 61% 1996 84% 39% 16%. 19701996. 1.8 2.2%. 2.7, 1.05, 1.30.77 (http/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm/, 1999).
78 2) (1) 1960 972,000km1996 1,160,000km 1.2 27900km 20,300km7,600km (, 1992).. (2) 1950 < 4-2>., 1950 92.1%, 7.9%1960 76.9% 23.1% 1970 37.2%, 63.6%. 1970 1996 69.0% 31.0%. 1970. 1960 1960
4 79. 20.. 1996. 1970587,200km 19961,408,600km2.4. < 4-2> ( ) 1970 73%, 27% 1996 92%8%.
80 3.. 1) <4-14> 1019701996 26 1), 2) 1 GNP, 3). 3 (stepwise).. = - 0.143 + 0.932 + 0.268 (R 2 =0.88), 3. 1 GNP. 1
4 8 1. 1.. (, ) ( ).. 2..
82 <4-14> 1970-1 GNP 2 ($) 1970 1996-1996 1970-1970- 1970 1996 1996 1970 1996 1996 (A) (B) (C) (D) ((B-A)/A) ((D- C)/C) 1 0.48 2417 23792 8.84 214 424 0.98 0.91 0.15 2992 32146 9.74 218 329 0.51 0.35 0.06 2738 28870 9.54 230 501 1.18 0.11 1.75 985 14350 13.57 70 413 4.90 2.68 0.28 2505 26280 9.49 234 376 0.61 0.27 0.12 1585 19880 11.54 189 571 2.02 0.68 1.87 1126 10160 8.02 49 277 4.65 3.14 0.08 1998 23314 10.67 155 379 1.45 0.21 0.68 4011 25735 5.42 284 413 0.45 0.21 0.20 2035 19600 8.63 183 369 1.02 0.69 0.41 2036 22413 10.00 183 405 1.21 0.80 0.51 1690 40940 23.22 169 552 2.27 0.30 1.10 250 10543 41.17 4 226 55.50 0.39 : 1) <4-13> 2) :, OECD, 1998 Internet Website (http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm),, 1980 2).
4 83.. 1000 1/ 5 1/ 8,. 1 GNP( 1996 $10640) 1980, 1000 ( 1996226 ) 1970. 1 1970 (, 1980;, 1995). 1,. 1970 1 GNP. 4.. 1)
84.,,.. <4-15>. <4-15> - - - - -,, - - - TEA-21 - - (Road Traffic Reduction Act) - ABC - Voonerf -,,,, (Road Safety Audit) - - TEA-21
4 85. (1) 1971, 1988 21,. 1998 5 ( ),,,,.,,,, (, 1999)..,. (, 1999).
86 (2) 19927 92(BVWP'92) ( 53.8%). 1991~2012 2,136, 2,096, 303., 200km / h 3,200km. 19912010, 1), 2) (, 1996)... 19922 (N ettetal) (Bundesministerium fuer Raumordng Bauw esen und Staedteban, 1993).....
4 87 (3) (Road Safety Audit). 1980 (Safety Checking) 1991(Motorway) (Trunk Roads).. (/, 1999). 1), 2), 3), 4). 1990 5,217 19943,65030%. 14:1 (TRL, 1999).,,,. (Road Traffic Reduction Act)1997 19987.. 199032%
88 1.6km,. 3 6(, 1998). (4). ABC,.. ABC. A :.. B :. (District),. C :. ABC.
4 89 A : B :,,,,, C : (, ) ABC. " Voonerf. 1976,,, 20, 30km (, 1998). (5) 1998 Transportation Equity Act for the 21-st Century (TEA-21)19982003,,. 0.08
90 ISTEA program ITS. TEA-21 1998 2003(Clear Air Act) $81,,,.. TEA-21. (Swift Rail Development Act) 1998 2001$140(http :/ / www.fhw a.dot. gov/ tea21/, 1999). 70% (LEV: Low Emission Vehicle) (, 1999). 2) --
4 9 1.. (1) <4-16>1981. 19811997 25.3% 74%. 1981 13.3%199718.5%. 10%. 2000. <4-16> 1981 1986 1991 1997 (km) 1,069 1,805 1,805 1,835 ( km) 314,500 334,800 386,300 394,000 ( km) 41,790 55,943 72,172 72,816 :,, 1981, 1991, 1998 (2) (Commission for Transport)
92 5%. 2010 TGVICE. 1981301km 150km 1997 85km, 20km, 427km, 471km, 1272km, 248km, 25km (<4-17> )., 1991 HambrugFrankfurtICE 127,000177,000 27.9% 38.7%( /, 1998). MuenchenFrankfurt ICE 30%(, 1996). TGV 199031% 199656%. TGV. MadridSevilla AVE 1993 280 86%. ICE 228%38% 1 60%80%(/, 1998).
4 93 <4-17> ( : km) 1981 - - - - 301 150-451 1983 - - - - 417 150-567 1988 - - 90-417 224-731 1990 - - 90-699 224-1013 1991 - - 427-699 224-1350 1992 - - 427 471 737 248-1883 1993 - - 427 471 1057 248-2203 1994 - - 427 471 1185 248 25 2356 1996 14-427 471 1272 248 25 2457 1997 85 20 427 471 1272 248 25 2548 : http/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm/ 3) 1 1980. 219801. 11 GNP,. 21,, (: ). 2 (, )
94 ITS. <4-18> 1 : 1980 2 : 1980 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (, ) - - - - - (ITS) 4),..
95 5 1.,. 2. 1) (1) 71 ( -, 2004)2 ( -, 2010 ), 2.
96 2.6(152 ), 8.6. (2) 3060. -, - 2001 40%., -,,. 2) (1) (ITS) 90ITS3 2010.,.
5 97 (2).,,,. 3),.. 4) SOC (1999) 2019 20SOC. ( 2 ).
98 3. WTO 13 20206.,,,. (Interm odalism),. 4., 21. 1),,,.
5 99 ( 1 ). 2).,.,.. 3) ITS.
100 4). 5) 10.
10 1 6 1... 21,,., 60, 6.25 1 5
102. 80,,. 70,,..,,,,. 19701980, 40.,,.
6 103,.,... 1970. 1970 1980. 1000. 1000 1/ 5 1000 1/ 2, 1/ 8. 1 GNP19801000 1 1970. 1 1980. 219801
104. 2. 19801 GNP.., (ITS) 21,. (Intermodalism),..,,,.,.
6 105,., ITS..,.,.,. 10. 2.. 1) 21 1 21 4,,
106 SOC., SOC, SOC. 2) O/D 2020 (O/ D).. 3) 1,,,.,. 4),
6 107 (AHP; Analytic Hierarchy Process). 5) SOC 21. 21 O/ D SOC NO YES < 6-1> ()
109,, 1998,,,, 1999,, 1998, ITS, 1997, (1998-2020), 1998,, 1980, :, 1994.5, (), 1998.1,, 1991, ( ), 1991,, 1997,, 1998,, 1994,, 1998,, 1995.2 / /,, 1990 /, 21, 1998,, 1995, 21, 1996,, 1996.6
110, 50-21, 1996, 21, 1999.1,,, 1996.2, pp.80~87,,, 1982.11 /,, Workshop, 1999.12, 21, 1999.7,, 1992, 21, 1992.3,,, 1992,,, 1989,,, 1998, 21,,, 1998 21, 1999(5 ),,1992, " ", 991126,, 1992,, 1997,, 1995, OECD, 1998,, 1997, 21, 1995, 25, 1968.2
111,, 1998, 1998, 1998,, 83,, 1981, 1991, 1998,, 1990,, 1999, - -, 1995 Bundesministerium fu er Raum ordng Bauw esen und Staedteban, Raum ordnungsbebcht, 1993 Dongbu Engineering, Inland Waterw ays in Korea Pre-feasibility Stu dy, 1997 Statistical Bureau Management and Coordination Agency in Government of Japan, Statistical Hand Book of Japan, 1996 Statistical Trends in Transport 1965-1994, The European Conference of Ministers of Transport, 1998 Transport Research Laboratory, Accident Investigation and Prevention and Road Safety Audit Techniques, 1999, www.kores.or.kr, www.koreanair.co.kr, www.freeway.co.kr, http :/ / kr.biz.yahoo.com/ exchange, www.keei.re.kr, www.korail.go.kr http:/ / europa.eu.int/ en/ comm/,1999 http:/ / www.fhwa.dot.gov/ tea21/,1999,1999 http:/ / www.kicc.co.kr/ info/ bus/ bus.html
112 ABSTRACT A Preliminary Stu dy on the Optimal Modal Split of the N ational Transportation Systems Lee, Sang-Keon Lim, Young-Tae Park, D ong-joo During the last century, the m odal split structure of the Korea transportation system has been shifted from a rail-oriented to a road-oriented structure. The shortage of the infrastructure to accom m odate the rapidly increasing travel dem and has brou ght socio-econom ic losses such as severe traffic congestion and high logistic cost, and thereby w eakens the competitiveness of the country. In this context, the objective of this study is to provide a conceptual guideline of the transportation policy which enhances the efficiency of the national transportation system in the 21st century. Firstly, this stu dy diagnoses the historical trend of the m odal split structure and analyses the deficiencies and causes of the current m odal split structure. Secondly, this stu dy examines the cases of the m odal split structure of the advanced countries. Lastly, basic principles for building an efficient and environm ent-friendly m od al split structure of the regional transportation system is proposed. One of the im portant feature in the m odal split changing trend of
113 the passenger transportation system is that the dominance of the rail over the road w as reversed in the early 1960' s. On the other hand, in the freight transp ortation system, the dominance of the rail over the road w as reversed and the marin mode became dominant over the rail from the early 1980' s. The m ost critical deficiency of the regional transportation system is that overall the roads are being used too much in transporting not only passenger but also freight, especially for the m id- and long-distance transp ortation. This w eakness has created direct problem s inclu ding severe traffic congestion, high logistic cost, and external costs including high traffic accident rate, air pollution, and enormous fuel consumption. The current m odal split of the passenger and freight transportation of the advanced countries is road-oriented, which is similar to the one of Korea. This result has com e from the fact that for last several decades m ore bu dgets have been sp ent on the road rather than the rail in ord er to accomm odate the increasing road-oriented dem and resulting from the increasing car-ownership. Since mid-1980' s, based on the recognition of the socio-environm ental issu es evoked by the dem and-oriented transp ortation infrastructure supply, the advanced countries have initiated numbers of socio-environm ental oriented travel dem and m anagem ent and transp ortation infrastructure investm ent strategies. Even if there has been no radical effect yet, a positive effect on the m odal split structure is exp ected for a long term. From the experience of the advanced countries, it is expected that m ore bu dget will be sp ent on the road than the rail becau se of the increasing p er capita GN P and car-ow nership, and thereby the m od al split of the road against the rail will be increased. In this context, the
114 shift of the national transportation policy is required to enhance the efficiency of the transp ortation system before becom ing m ore road-oriented transportation system. In the near future a num ber of changes inclu ding the introduction of express rail and light rail system, exploration of Intelligent Transp ortation System s(its), advance of tell-com munication system, and em erging environm ental and traffic safety issu es are exp ected. Internationally with the increm ent of the free trad e and acceleration of the econom ic cooperation in the far-east region, Korea is exp ected to role as center of interm odalism. Additionally in case of unification betw een South and N orth Korea an inter-connecting transp ortation network betw een two Koreas is required. By taking into account these aspects, this study proposes following directions in establishing optim al m odal split structure of the regional transp ortation system. Firstly, total social cost should be minim ized by u sing system-efficient m odes in term s of several asp ects such as energy efficiency, traffic safety, and environm ental effect, etc. Secondly, the existing transportation system s should be utilized efficiently by implem enting ITS technologies. Thirdly, public transp ortation should be activated and the passenger car trips should be reduced. Followings are the sum m aries of the m ain tasks of the next year study which follow this study. Firstly, a number of scenarios of the m odal split structure are proposed based on the exp ected changes in transp ortation facility supply and dem and characteristics. Secondly, the travel dem and (i.e. O-D m atrix) in 2020 is estim ated and the future netw ork is cod ed in order to run the transp ortation planing softw are. Thirdly, the m easure of optim ality of the m odal split structure based
115 on a num ber of criteria outlined above is established and a m athem atical m odel which m easures the appropriateness of the m odal split structure is prop osed. Lastly, u sing the m od el each m odal split scenario is evaluated and the optim al one is chosen, and the strategy of providing transportation infrastructure of the selected m odal split structure is proposed.
117 1 1. 1) ( ),. (1) < 1>. (/ ) 1 (/ ) (/ km,/ km) (/ - km,/ - km) < 1>
118 (V OC : Vehicle Operation g Cost ),,,,,,,,,.,,,. km km. <1>< 2>. <1> () (10 6 - km) (/- km) () (10 6 - km) (/- km) 148,247 26.02 8,573,880 4,013,863 101,078 6,769,029 () () 41,764 3.99 193,912 1,462,631 129,669 184,666 9,052 67.35 2,110,481 2,110,481 59,082 4.16 12,710 36.61 149 4091.50 : 19971995 :, ( ), 1998,, 1996
119 <2> (/) (/) (/) (/) (/) 302.39 315.06 288.86 72.1 : :,, 1999, http:/ / www.keei.re.kr (V OT : V alue of T im e) km km.,. 4,. <3> (/ (/ (/km) ) (/ km) (/km) ) (/ km) 54 45.68 43 96.85 62 3,045.5 52.45 68 8,108 153.15 32 27.07 32 72.07 :,, 1999 (2) < 2>
120. (/ ) < 2> 3.. <4> () ( km) (/ km) 4,407,404 148,247 29.73 70,810 45,361 1.70 137,917 9,052 15.24
12 1 1. <5> (g/ km) (/) (/ km) (g/ km) (/) (/ km) 195 12.58 214 13.79 79 64,405 5.08 41 64,405 2.66 161 10.39 1,168 75.19 : 1 = 588.42 :, Inland Waterways in Korea Pre-feasibility Study, 1997, http :/ / kr.biz.yahoo.com/ exchange/ (3) <6>. <6> (/ km) (/ km) 26.02 45.68 29.73 12.58 36.61 92.07 13.79 3.99 52.45 1.70 5.08 4.16 153.15 2.66 55.94 27.07 15.24 10.39 692.95 72.07 75.19
122 <7>, < 3>, < 4>. <7> () 25 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1,793 3,585 5,378 7,170 10,755 14,341 17,926 21,511 25,096 28,681 32,266 1,411 2,822 4,233 5,644 8,466 11,288 14,110 16,932 19,754 22,576 25,398 2,075 4,151 6,226 8,301 12,45 16,602 20.753 24,903 29,054 33,204 37,355 3,217 6,434 9,651 12,868 19,302 25,736 32,170 38,604 45,038 51,472 57,906 2,704 5,408 8,112 10,816 16,224 21,632 27,040 32,448 37,856 43,264 48,672 19,126 38,251 57,377 76,502 114,753 153,004 191,255 229,506 267,757 306,008 344,260 : < 3> < 2>
123 < 8>, < 5>, < 6>. <8> () 25 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2,850 5,701 8,551 11,402 17,103 22,803 28,504 34,205 39,906 45,607 51,308 1,581 3,161 4,742 6,322 9,483 12,644 15,805 18,966 22,127 25,288 28,450 2,716 5,432 8,148 10,864 16,296 21,728 27,160, 32,024 38,024 43,456 48,888 3,562 7,123 10,685 14,247 21,370 28,494 35,617 42,741 49,864 56,988 64,111 2,771 5,541 8,312 11,082 16,623 22,164 27,705 33,247 38,788 44,329 49,870 21,005 42,011 63,016 84,021 126,032 168,043 210,053 252,064 294,075 336,086 378,096 : < 5> < 6>
124 2) 3. 25km, 75km, 150km, 250km, 350km, 450km. (1) < 7>< 8>. < 7>
125 < 8> <9> 435,554 427,704 7 850, 1745. <9> ( ) 435,554 427,704 7,850 167,623 165,878 1,745 ( ) 277,701 275,343 2,358 152,310 151,179 1,131 ( ) 157,853 152,361 5,492 15,313 14,699 614
126 2., (:, man-hour,,, ). <10><11>. <10> ( km) (km) 3,447 862 4,546 206 1,550 691 4,209 3,180 2,042 1,118 1,709 433 122 369 45 588 110 63 ( 100 ) :,, 1990 21, /, 1998 <11> man- hour 552kcal 34712,300km2 592,000 100.0 447kcal 2499,400km2 418,000 60.0 105kcal 98 2,900km2 174,000 40.0 10,700 137,000 72,500 2,400 18,430 5 / km2 578,000/ (20 25/ kcal () 1,400 ) :,, 1990 21, /, 1998
127 2 21 (1998-2020). 1. 2020 20 1.12 5,2365. 20202.16 2,192. 10.220.42 2. IMF 2. 6.6%2020 4.3. (1 )
128 <1> 1997(A) 2020(B) B/A 1997-2020 (%) ( ) 46,885 52,360 1.12 0.48 ( ) 10,143 21,922 2.16 3.4 (-) 236,943 408,545 1.72 2.4 (-) 138,189 269,480 1.95 2.9 (-) 74,570 324,595 4.35 6.6 (-) 4,180,272 9,347,833 2.24 3.6 :, (1998-2020), 1998 2. 1) ( 7 9), 213.7 2020 5,642km, 14,000km. 2) X ( -, -, -, - ) 1,2 2010.,,,, 5.
129 3) (Hub Airport). 4) (Major Hub Port),. <2> ( :, 90) 1971 19721981 19821991 19921996 20002019 * 42,855 (56.6%) 16,816 (22.2%) 1,329 (1.8%) 14,697 (19.4%) 75,697 (100%) 110,682 (55.8%) 38,165 (19.2%) 2,724 (1.4%) 46,849 (23.6%) 198,391 (100%) 609,479 (72.9%) 123,323 (14.7%) 8,714 (1.0%) 94,589 (11.3%) 836,105 (100%) 265,405 (58.5%) 132,876 (29.3%) 19,246 (4.2%) 36,044 (7.9%) 453,572 (100%) 1,862,517 (56.3%) 940,248 (28.5%) 136,690 (4.1%) 368,328 (11.1%) 3,307,783 (100%) 60.0% 22.8% 2.5% 14.7% 100% * :, 200020191999, : 4,, 1998,, 1999
130 <3> 1977-2020 1977(A) 1997(B) 2020(C) - (km) 1,225 8,232 1,889 12,459 5,642 14,000-79 - (km) (km) (%) (km) (%) 3,142 603 19.2 415 13.2 3,118 901 28.9 661 21.2 4,908 3,926 80.0 4,025 82.0 - ( /) ( /) 341 13 4,280 202 12,840 929,,,, - () 41 295 1,288,,
99-53 21(1) / /,, / / 19991230 2-22 1591-6 (431-712) 0343-380-0429()0343-380-0114( ) 0343-380-0474.