Distributions of Cold Surges and Their Changes in the Joongbu Region, the Republic of Korea* Youngeun Choi** Changyong Park***.,,.,,, 1980 1990..,,.,,,, Abstract : This paper examined distributions and changes of cold surges in the Joongbu region using the cold surge related extreme climate indicators over the Republic of Korea. Also, the relationships between indicators and global annual mean temperature and selected atmospheric indices were defined. The number of the extreme cold days, the cold wave duration index(cwdi) and the cold surge days in the western inland of the Taebaek mountain range were greater than those in the west coast region. The ice days(id), CWDI, and extreme cold days showed decreasing trends at most of stations with the abrupt decrease during 1980s to 1990s. Global annual mean temperature and arctic oscillation index(aoi) showed negative correlation with all the cold surge related indicators. Using both global annual mean temperature and AOI, R-squared value was getting higher for the Id, extreme cold days and CWDI than when only either global annual mean temperature or AOI was considered. Key Words : cold surge, extreme climate indicators, Joongbu region, global annual mean temperature, arctic oscillation index.,, (Alexander et al., 2006; Caesar et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007).., 10 * (RACS 2010-4013). **, (Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Konkuk University, yechoi@konkuk.ac.kr) *** (Doctoral student, Department of Geography, Konkuk University, kpotato@konkuk.ac.kr)
(cold nights) (Moberg and Jones, 2005). NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NCDC(National Climatic Data Center) 2009 1880 (20 0.56 ) (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). 2009,,. 2010 1 59 (33cm) 40 (-16 ). 2009 80, -20. 2010 1 30, 50 (-29 ). 2009 13.0 1971~2000 0.7 ( 1). 2009 2 2 (3.5 ), 12 9., 7, 8 2009. 2009 (, 2010a; 2010b). 25.8cm (2010 1 4 ), 1971~2000 1 (-1.0 ) 2010 1-1.2. 2009,,.,.... Alexander et al.(2006) 2,223 (cold nights, 10 ) ( 74%). Moberg and Jones(2005) Moberg et al.(2006) 714
. Vincent et al.(2005), (warm nights, 90 ). New et al.(2006) (cold days, 10 ) (warm days, 90 ).,, (frost days, 0 ) (Vincent et al., 2006),, (DeGaetano et al., 2002; Brunet et al., 2005). 2003 3 5,, (Beniston, M., 2004; Beniston and Diaz, 2004;, 2005;, 2005;, 2007)., (, 1989;, 1994, 1995; Boo and Lim, 1998;, 2002;, 2003; Takaya and Nakamura, 2005).,, (Choi, 2004; Choi et al., 2008)., ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation), MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation) (Chen et al., 2004; Jeong and Ho, 2005; Jeong et al., 2005;, 2006; Hong and Li, 2009),. 36.5 18 ( 3) 1973 2009,. 12, 1 2 1973 1973 12 1974 2.. 18. STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions) ( 1). 0-10. 5 5 6 6., 1 5, 6. 1971~2000 30 1972,,,,,,,,,,, 11 1973 2000. 10 4 10 2010 12 1-12 2.. 10 1973 1980 10. 715
(1973~2009 ) (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). Kendall,. 0-10 (1971~2000 ) 5 6 10 4 10 NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Niño 3.4, (SOI: Southern Oscillation Index), (AO: Arctic Oscillation) (1973~2009 ) (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). NOAA NCDC 1973~2009 50.6 (90~91 ) 56%. 22.4. 12.2, 13~14%.., ( 4(a))., 1990 1980 40% ( 4(b)). 2009 28.4 15.7 12.7, 1990 1973 716
-4.0* -3.7* -3.7** -4.7** -2.9-5.2** -4.7** -4.1** -6.1** -2.1-3.6* -3.5* -3.0* -3.7** -2.6-2.0-4.1** -1.6 * a=0.05, ** a=0.01-3.2* -4.2* -2.7-6.9** -3.7** -4.4* -3.2** -3.1-7.3** -3.8* -7.4** -1.7-4.3* -2.2-2.2-6.9** -6.9** -1.6 * a=0.05, ** a=0.01. 10 1980 25.5, 1990 15.3, 2000 17.3. 1973~2009 2.,,,, 13. 1973~2009 50.6. 8.0 9%., ( 5(a))., 1980 1990 ( 5(b)). 2009 28.1 19.8 8.3. 10 1980 30.9, 1990 22.1, 2000 21.2. 1973~2009 3. 6 (,,,,, ) 12. 37 (1973~2009 ) 1973~2009. 1973~2009 124, 17., 49 18 ( 6(a)). 717
. 10 6(b).,, 15 1980 1980 105. 1990 10 18 61% 11. 1980, 1990 2000. 2000 1990 6, 11 1990. (2.7 ), (2.5 ), (2.5 ), (1.4 ) 9 ( 4)., 1980-0.4-0.8-1.2-2.7* -1.4** -1.1-1.2* -1.1-2.5** -1.1-2.2** -0.8-2.5** -0.9-0.9-1.1* -1.7** -0.7* * a=0.05, ** a=0.01. 1980 72.5, 1990 4.9, 2000 16.1 1973~2009 36.5 20.4, 56%. 1990 11.2. ( 6(c)). 718
42, 1987, 1992, 2000, 2008 1 4 ( 7(a)). 10 7(b). 10 1980. 4,,, ( 5). 18.. 1980 8.2, 1990 6.0, 2000 5.2. -0.1 0.0-0.2-0.2* 0.0-0.2 0.0 0.0-0.3** -0.1 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1 0.1-0.1-0.1* 0.0 * a=0.05, ** a=0.01. 18 719
Niño Niño 3.4 3.4-0.38** -0.02-0.10-0.60** -0.55** -0.05-0.09-0.52** -0.47** -0.02-0.12-0.61** -0.32* -0.14 0.08-0.70** * a=0.05, ** a=0.01 ( 6).. Niño 3.4.. ( 8). 17..,, 2.. ( 9). 720
y = _ 28.6x 1 + 375.8 (r 2 = 0.57) y = _ 22.1x 1 _ 6.5x 2 + 294.6 (r 2 = 0.83) y = _ 28.9x 1 + 385.1 (r 2 = 0.60) y = _ 22.6x 1 _ 6.4x 2 + 305.5 (r 2 = 0.85) y = _ 172.9x 1 + 2187.3 (r 2 = 0.59) y = _ 136.5x _ 1 36.4x 2 + 1731.7 (r 2 = 0.82) y = _ 12.232x 1 + 159.0 (r 2 = 0.74) x 1 :, x 2 :,,,,,. ( 7). 7 10~13.,,, 57%, 60%, 59%, 74%.,, 83%, 85%, 82% 13~16%,. 721
,.,,,,,. 4,,, 1980 1990. 4 722
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