에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 13, Number 1, March 2014 : pp. 83~119 거시계량모형을이용한유가변동및 유류세변화의파급효과분석 * 83
84
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[ 그림 1] 모형의해결정과정 87
[ 그림 2] 거시계량모형의흐름도 (flow chart) 88
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< 표 1> 유류세현황 (2013 년 12 월 ) 90
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ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 92
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 93
ln ln ln 94
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 95
ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 96
R MSP E T t Y a t T Yt f Y t a 97
< 표 2> 주요거시변수의 RMSPE 및 MAPE ( 단위 :%) 98
< 표 3> 산업부문의 RMSPE 와 MAPE ( 단위 :%) 99
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< 표 4> 국제유가 10% 상승에대한정책모의실험결과 ( 주요거시변수 ) 102
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< 표 5> 국제유가 10% 상승에대한정책모의실험결과 ( 산업별효과 ) 104
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< 표 6> 유류세 10% 상승에대한정책모의실험결과 ( 주요거시변수 ) 107
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< 표 7> 유류세 10% 상승에대한정책모의실험결과 ( 산업별효과 ) 109
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[ 그림 3] 주요거시변수의반응 ( 단위 :%) 111
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접수일 (2013 년 9 월 24 일 ), 수정일 (2014 년 2 월 19 일 ), 게재확정일 (2014 년 2 월 24 일 ) 113
, 1993, -BOK92,,, 2012,,,, 2005,," 2005-14,., 2007,, ISSUE PAPER 2007-229,, 2008, -,, 7 1, pp. 1 41., 2000,, 2000-02,., 2011, KERI 2010,, 2013, 2013, Klein, L. R. and R. S. Preston, 1967, Some New Results in the Measurement of Capacity Utilization, American Economic Review, 57(1), pp. 34-58. Lucas, R. E. Jr. 1976, Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique, In The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Brunner K. and A. H. Meltzer eds. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, North-Holland, Amsterdam. Tinbergen, J., 1967, Economic Policy: Principles and Design, Rand McNally, 4th revised eds. NOTE: Tinbergen was a co-recipient (with Ragnar Frisch) of the 1969 Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. 114
1년차 2년차 3년차 4년차 115
변수명 변수내용 단위 116
변수명 변수내용 단위 117
변수명변수내용단위 118
ABSTRACT In this study, a macroeconometric model which incorporates the error-correction model is constructed to examine the effects of changes in international oil prices and oil taxes on the Korean economy, as well as industrial production. An increase in both oil prices and oil taxes induces stagflationary pressures on the Korean economy in accordance with the economic theory. However, it is found that these negative effects of oil taxes are smaller than oil prices. This is because the increase in oil prices brings about more profound and wide effects on the economy, raising the price of imported goods, while oil taxes only increases the consumer and producer price index directly. Also, as expected, energy-consuming industries are mainly vulnerable to the increase in both oil prices and oil taxes. However, since it is possible for these industries to impute rises in costs to the price of their products, the mining, financial and construction industry are most seriously affected by the rise in oil prices and oil taxes rather than those industries. Moreover, in the case of oil taxes, it is also found that some industries closely related with private consumption are also influenced by the rise in oil taxes. Key Words : Macroeconometric Model, Oil Prices, Oil Taxes, Policy Simulation JEL Codes : C32, Q40 119