IPCC 의제 4 차평가보고서에대한실무그룹 Ⅱ 정책결정자를위한요약서 Summary for Policymakers 200712 환경부
IPCC Ⅱ ꡐSummary for Policymakerꡑ
IPCC( ) Ⅱ 4 정책결정자를위한요약 8 IPCC Ⅱ( 200742~5) IPCC : Neil Adger Pramod Aggarwal Shardul Agrawala Joseph Alcamo Abdelkader Allali Oleg Anisimov Nigel Arnell Michel Boko Osvaldo Canziani Timothy Carter Gino Casassa Ulisses Confalonieri Rex Victor Cruz Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz William Easterling Christopher Field Andreas Fischlin Blair Fitzharris Carlos Gay García Clair Hanson Hideo Harasawa Kevin Hennessy Saleemul Huq Roger Jones Lucka Kajfež Bogataj David Karoly Richard Klein Zbigniew Kundzewicz Murari Lal Rodel Lasco Geoff Love Xianfu Lu Graciela Magrín Luis Josė Mata Roger McLean Bettina Menne Guy Midgley Nobuo Mimura Monirul Qader Mirza José Moreno Linda Mortsch Isabelle Niang-Diop Robert Nicholls Béa Nováky Leonard Nurse Anthony Nyong Michael Oppenheimer Jean Palutikof Martin Parry Anand Patwardhan Patricia Romero Lankao Cynthia Rosenzweig Stephen Schneider Serguei Semenov Joel Smith John Stone Jean-Pascal van Ypersele David Vaughan Coleen Vogel Thomas Wilbanks Poh Poh Wong Shaohong Wu Gary Yohe IPCC 2007: Summary for Policymakers In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ML Parry OF Canziani JP Palutikof PJ van der Linden and CE Hanson Eds Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 7-22
IPCC(International Panel on Climate Change) Ⅱ(Working GroupⅡ) 4 (the fourth Assessment) 1 IPCC 3 ( ( 永久凍土 ) ) 4 : [13] ( 永久凍土 ) [13] ( 海氷 ) [13 44 154] 2 ( 雪 ) ( 熱構造 ) [13] [13] 4 Ⅱ 1970 2001 3 Ⅰ ( 生物種 ) ( 開葉 ) [13] ( 極地 ) [13 82 142] 1980 ( 質 ) ( 綠化 ) 5 [13 142] 3 3 [13] [13] ( 回遊 ) 1 관련정의는 Endbox 2 참조 2 내용의근거는대괄호 [] 에명시됨 예 ) [33] 은 3장 3절을나타냄 대괄호안의 F=Figure T=Table B=Box ES=Executive Summary 를나타냄 3 Endbox 2 참조 4 실무그룹Ⅰ의제4차평가참조 5 정규식생지수에의한측정 ( 위성이미지에의한녹색식생지역적분포의상대적측정 ) 1
정책결정자를 위한 요약(실무그룹Ⅱ) 1750 ( Ⅰ 4 ph01 IPCC ) (外來種) [13] 1970 [14] (模型) 6 30 [14] 5 4 Ⅰ 1 4 20 ( 2 75 29000 7 89% ) (攪亂體制) [13] ( SPM1)[14] [13 82 8ES] 3 ( ( )[13] SPM1)[14] 4 ( ( ) ) [13] [14] [13] [13] 6 7 2 Endbox 2 참조 29000 자료는 577개 연구의 80000개 자료에서 발췌 다음 기준에 따름: (1) 1990년 및 이후에 완료된 연구 (2) 최소 20년 이상의 기간이 소요된 연구 (3) 중요한 변화를 보인 연구
1970-2004 SPM1 ( ( 水文 ) ( 沿岸組織 )) ( ) 1970-2004 29000 577 80000 (1) 1990 (2) 20 (3) 75 ( 70 3 ) 29000 28000 2 2 box ( ) ( / ) ( ) : (i) : (NAM) (LA) (EUR) (AFR) (AS) (ANZ) (PR) (ii) : (TER) (MFW) (GLO) 7 (NAMPR) MFW (PR ) GLO [Working GroupⅡ Fourth Assessment F18 F19 Working Group Ⅰ Fourth Assessment F39b] 3
8 9 IPCC ( : ( 山林火災 ) ) ( ) **N[41 to 46] 21 11 **N[4ES F42] 15-25 20-30% *N[44 T41] 15-25 21 ( 熱帶濕潤 ) 10-40% ( 熱帶乾棗 ) 10-30% ( 生物種 ) **N[44] **D 10 [34] **N[Working GroupⅠ Fourth Assessment Table SPM-2 Working GroupⅡ Fourth Assessment 34] ( 貝類 ) ( ) ( 依存種 ) *N[B44 64] 1-3 ( 鎔解水 ) ( 1/6 ) ***N[36] *D[54] (1-2 ) *D[54] 8 선택기준 : 영향의크기및시기 평가의신뢰성 시스템 섹터 지역에대한대표성 9 온도변화는 1980-1999 년의기간의변화된정도를나타냄 상대기간 1850-1899 년에대한온도변화표시 05 더함 10 본장 (section) 에서는다음의표기형식을따름제 3 차보고서와의관계 : D- 제 3 차보고서의내용을더욱발전시킴 N- 제 3 차보고서에없는새로운결론신뢰도의수준 : ***-very high confidence( 매우신뢰 ) **-high confidence( 높은신뢰 ) *-medium confidence( 신뢰 ) 11 토이지용변화를포함한기타전지구적변화와현재수준유지및이상의연속된온실가스배출을가정 4
1-3 *D[54 56] **D[64 65 T611] ( 住居 ) **D[54 5ES] *N[55] *D[54] **N[74 76] ( 住居 ) **D[71 73 to 75] **D[54] **N[72 74 54] ***D[63 64] ( 熱應力 ) 1-3 ( 熱適應 ) ( 風土馴化 ) ***D[64] **N[74 75] ( 鹽性濕地 ) ***D[64] 2080 ( 熱波 ) ( 群小島嶼 ) ***D[64] **D[84 8ES 82] 5
**D[84] GDP 5-10% 12 **D[84] **N[95] ***N[83] 20-30 ( 水源 ) *N[102 104] 2050 10 **N[104] 2020 7 5 2 5 **D[104] **D[94 34 82 84] **D[105] 2020 50% **N[92 94 96] 21 20% 30% *N[104] 21 **N[94 54 84] ( 水界循環 ) 12 주로산업화된국가에서의연구 6
**N[104] 2030 (Northland) ( 水 ) **D[114] 2020 (Great Barrier Reed) (Queensland Wet Tropics) (Kakadu wetlands) ***D[114] ( ) ( 生物種 ) 2080 60% ***D[124] ( 熱波 ) ( 山林火災 ) **D[122 124 127] 2050 2030 ***D[114 116] ( 熱波 ) ( 泥炭 ) **D[124] **N[114] ) **D[124] ( **N[112 115] ***N[125] ( 生物種 ) ( 熱波 ) ***N[121 124 126] 21 (savanna in eastern Amazonia) ( 生物種 ) **D[134] 7
( 鹽化 ) **N[134 137] ***N[142 144] **N[134 137] **D[134] ( 住居 ) **D[132] ( 氷床 ) ( ) ( 海氷 ) ( 永久凍土 ) ( 永久凍土 ) **D[153 154 152] *D[156 154] ( 雪塊氷原 ) ***D[144 D142] *D[154] ***N[144 B141] 5-20% ( 复元力 ) **D[144] 154 155 157] **D [15ES ***D[144] ( 熱波 ) ( 群小島嶼 ) ( 群小島嶼 ) ***D[161 165] 8
( ) **D[164] ***D[164] ***D[164] ( 群小島嶼 ) ) **N[164] ( 生物種 ) ( IPCC 3 ( ) SPM2 [19ES 191] 3 ( 憂慮 ) ' 3 [193] 9
( ) SPM2 21 [T208] SRES( ) A1Fl A2 B2 ( 3) 10
IPCC 3 21 IPCC SRES ( SPM1 ) 21 1990 1~3 2~3 [9ES 95 106 T109 153 15ES] 4 1~5% GDP ( 氷床 ) ( 海氷 ) 1990-2000 1~4 ( 海 氷 ) 4~6m ( 氷床 ) 5m 7m [Working GroupⅠ fourth Assessment 64 107 Working GroupⅡ fourth Assessment 193] MOC(Meridional Overturning Circulation ) 21 MOC MOC 3 [F203] ( SCC( ) ) 2005 SCC 1 43 ( 1 12 ) 100 1 10 ( 1 3 ) 1 350 ( 1 95 ) [206] SCC [Working GroupⅠ fourth Assessment 103 107 Working GroupⅡ fourth Assessment 126 193] [T203 206 F204] [206 20ES 74] 11
a SRES 21 [74] [44 54] [34] [82 84] [Virtually certain] b ( 解說 ) [Very likely] / ( 熱波 ) ) - [Very likely] / [likely] / [likely] [Likely] d ( ) c a b c d I 4 37 1% 2100 [ I 4 106] SPM1 21 I 4 ( SPM-2) 2 1 12
[76 172 174] ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) IPCC 3 13 165 115] [76 82 86 17ES 172 [3~16 56 172 174 ] 2000 (1980~1999 06 ) ( I 4 ) ( 复元力 ) SPM2 HIV/AIDS SPM2 [74 83 173 203] [172 175] IPCC 3 13 방법들에대한표가기술요약 (Technical Summary) 에주어졌음 13
IPCC SRES( ) ( 3)[24] [24] [24 T206] A2-type ( ) SRES [T206] [T66] [207] 14 [181 185] [203] [172] [172 208] [187] [3-8 7 203 207] MDG( ) MDG [207] II 4 3 ( TS-6 ) 14 이평가서에서지속가능한발전 (Sustainable Development) 용어는 The Brundtland Commission 에서의정의를따름 : development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" 같은정의가 the IPCC Working Group II Third Assessment and Third Assessment Synthesis Report 에서사용되었음 14
Endbox1 IPCC ) ( Endbox2 II 4 IPCC 4 < > [Very high confidence] [High confidence] [Medium confidence] [Low confidence] [Very low confidence] < > 10 9 10 8 10 5 10 2 10 1 < > [Virtually certain] [Very likely] [Likely] [About as likely as not] [Unlikely] [Very unlikely] [Exceptionally unlikely] < > >99% 90 ~ 99% 66 ~ 90% 33 ~66% 10 ~ 33% 1 ~ 10% <1% 15
Endbox3 IPCC SRES( ) A1 A1 21 1 A1 A1 : (A1F1) ( 非化石 ) (A1T) (A1B)( ) A2 A2 1 B1 B1 A1 21 B2 B2 A2 B1 A1 6 A1B A1F1 A1T A2 B1 B2 SRES UNFCCC 16
Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policymaker : http://wwwipccch (IPCC ) 17