조사연구 using odds ratio. The result of analysis for 58 election polls registered in National Election Survey Deliberation Commission revealed that progr

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1 조사연구 권 호 DOI 연구논문 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 : 2017 년대통령선거의경우 * The Accuracy of Election Forecasts and the Chance of Winning for Multiple Candidates: In Case of the 2017 Presidential Election 1) a) 주제어 다수후보 예측오차 당선가능성 오즈 In this study, we analyzed the accuracy of the election polls and measured the chance of winning for the multiple candidates in the 2017 presidential election. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the election forecast for multiple candidates, we used the measure of Arzheimer and Evans(2014) which generalized the measure of Martin et al. (2005)

2 조사연구 using odds ratio. The result of analysis for 58 election polls registered in National Election Survey Deliberation Commission revealed that progressive or centrist candidates were overestimated and conservative candidates were severely underestimated. Based on the results of the election polls, odds were used to measure the chance of winning an election for candidates. In future election polls, it is also desirable to present the chance of winning an election as well as approval ratings for candidates. Key words : multiple candidates, forecasting error, chance of winning, odds Ⅰ. 서론

3 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 표 제 대 제 대대통령선거결과 이상득표한후보 단위 19 (2017 ) (2012 ) (2007 ) (2002 ) (1997 ) (1992 ) (1987 )

4 조사연구

5 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 Ⅱ. 다수후보에대한연구방법 1. 정확성평가

6 조사연구 ln ln

7 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 ln for ln ln

8 조사연구 2. 당선가능성예측

9 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 Ⅲ. 사례분석 1. 다수후보에대한정확성분석

10 조사연구

11 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 또는 그림 조사시점별 후보의지지율변화 무응답비례조정

12 조사연구 표 일반화척도 를이용한후보별정확성비교 구분 3 인후보 5 인후보 문재인홍준표안철수문재인홍준표안철수유승민심상정 ( ) ( )

13 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 그림 인후보의일반화척도 에대한상자그림 그림 인후보의일반화척도 에대한상자그림

14 조사연구 < 표 3> 제19대대통령선거예측조사의총체적예측오차 구분 후보들의당선가능성

15 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성

16 조사연구 < 표 4> 지지율에따른세후보의당선가능성 지지율 문재인 홍준표 안철수 : : : : : :1 1:1 1: :1.8 1: :3.5 1: :7.2 1: :16.4 1: :43.7 1: : : : : :3, :1, :31, :13, :469, :151, :14.360, :3,301,064.7

17 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 Ⅳ. 결론

18 조사연구

19 다수후보에대한선거예측의정확성과당선가능성 참고문헌 : (3): (1): (2): Agresti, A Categorical Data Analysis. 2nd ed. John Wiley & Son, Inc.

20 조사연구 Arzheimer, K. and J. Evans A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias. Political Analysis 22: Buchanan, W Election Predictions: An Empirical Assessment. Public Opinion Quarterly 50(2): Cantú, F., V. Hoyo, and M.A. Morales, The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Election: Mexican Polling Firms in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 28(1): Durand Claire The Polls of the 2007 French Presidential Campaing: Were Lessons Learned from the 2001 Catastrophe? International Journal of Public Opinion Research 20(3): Hummel, P Pre-election Polling and Third Party Candidates Social Choice & Welfare 42(1): Jackman, S Pooling the Polls over an Election Campaign Australian Journal of Political Science 40(4): Martin, E.A., M.W. Traugott, and C. Kennedy A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy. Public Opinion Quarterly 69(3): Mitofsky, W.J The Poll-Review; Was 1996 a Worse Year for Pools than 1948? Public Opinion Quarterly 62(2): Mosteller, F., H. Hyman, P.J. McCarthy, E.S. Marks, and D.B. Truman The Pre-Election Polls of 1948: Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts. New York: Social Science Research Council. Wright, M.J., D.P. Farrar, and D.F. Russell Polling Accuracy in Multiparty Election. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 26(1): < 2018/04/25, 2018/06/04, 2018/06/10>

조사연구 aim of this study is to find main cause of the forecasting error and bias of telephone survey. We use the telephone survey paradata released by N

조사연구 aim of this study is to find main cause of the forecasting error and bias of telephone survey. We use the telephone survey paradata released by N 조사연구 권 호 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.20997/sr.17.3.5 연구노트 2016 년국회의원선거전화여론조사정확성분석 Analysis of Accuracy of Telephone Survey for the 2016 National Assembly Elections 1)2) a) b) 주제어 선거여론조사 전화조사 예측오차 편향 대국회의원선거