탈원전·탈석탄·신재생 에너지 확대 정책에 따른 신규 전원구성의 수급 안정성 평가

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1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 1~35 탈원전 탈석탄 신재생에너지확대정책에따른 신규전원구성의수급안정성평가 - 1 -

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10 P r

11 < 표 1> 몬테카를로시뮬레이션기반의 LOLP 추정방법

12 min min min

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15 < 표 2> 시나리오정의 < 표 3> 시나리오 2 에서활용될전원구성계획을위해추가적으로 필요한발전설비용량및도입년도

16 < 표 4> 시나리오 3 에서활용될, 제 8 차전력수급기본계획 에서제안될 것으로예상되는수요전망과전원구성계획

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18 [ 그림 1] 2014 년부하지속곡선

19 < 표 5> 첨두부하시전력수요변동성 ( 전력수요의경험적확률분포 ) < 표 6> 전통적전원별기술특성치자료

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21 < 표 7> 신재생에너지및집단에너지기술특성치자료 < 표 8> 신재생에너지부하지속곡선단계별평균출력량 ( 이용률 ) < 표 9> 첨두부하시풍력 / 태양광출력량변동성 ( 신재생에너지발전량의경험적확률분포 )

22 < 표 10> 온실가스및환경오염물질배출계수

23 < 표 11> 예비율과공급신뢰도분석

24 ~

25 [ 그림 2] 설비예비율과공급예비율의차이 < 표 12> 발전비용분석 1) ( 단위 : 십억원 )

26 < 표 13> 온실가스및환경오염물질배출량분석 ( 연평균 )

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28 접수일 (2017 년 10 월 18 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 11 월 9 일 )

29 ,,,, ,, :,, 10(2), ,, ,, ,,, RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard),, 58(3), ,,,,,, I ( , ,, 37(3), ,,,,,, :,,,,,,,

30 : (2016) : KIER Focus Anderson, D Models for determining least-cost investments in electric supply Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 3(1): pp Aghaei, J., Akbari, M.A., Roosta, A., Gitizadeh, M. and Niknam, T Integrated renewable-conventional generation expansion planning using multiobjective framework IET Generation Transmission & Distribution, 6: pp Aghaei, J. Akbari, M.A., Roosta, A., and Baharvandi, A. 2013, Multiobjective generation expansion planning considering power system adequacy Electric Power Systems Research 102: pp8-19 Bessiere, F Investment 85 model of electricite de France Management Science 17(4): pp Billington, R. and Allan, R Reliability evaluation of power systems, New York, Plenum Press Birge, J. R., and Louveaux, F Introduction to stochastic programming. Springer Science & Business Media. Black and Veatch. (2012). Cost and performance data for power generation technologies. Technical Report Prepared for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Bloom, J.A Long range generation planning using decomposition and probabilistic simulation IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems PAS-101(4): pp Choi, D.G. and Thomas, V.M An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response Energy Policy 41: pp

31 Choi, D.G., Park, S.Y., and Hong, J.C Quantitatively exploring the future of renewable portfolio standard in the Korean electricity sector via a bottom-up energy model Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 50: pp Cote, G. and Laughton M.A Prediction of reserve requirements in generation planning International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 2(2): pp87-95 Farghal, S.A. and Aziz, M.R.A Generation expansion planning including the renewable sources IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 3: pp Feng, Y. and Ryan, S.M Scenario construction and reduction applied to stochastic power generation expansion planning Computers and Operations Research 40: pp9-23 Gitizadeh, M., Kaji, M., and Aghaei, J Risk based multiobjective generation expansion planning considering renewable energy sources. Energy, 50: pp Hobbs. B.F Optimization methods for electric utility resource planning European Journal of Operations Research 83: pp1-20 Hu, Z. and Jewell, W.T Optimal generation expansion planning with integration of variable renewable and bulk energy storage systems Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability, pp1-8 Kim, Y.-C., and Ahn, B.-H Multicriteria generation-expansion planning with global environmental considerations IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 40(2): pp Jin, S., Ryan, S.M., Watson, J.P. and Woodru, D.L Modeling and solving a large-scale generation expansion planning problem under uncertainty Energy Systems 2: pp Jonghe, C.D., Delarue, E., Belmans, R. and D'haeseleer, W Determining optimal electricity technology mix with high level of wind power penetration Applied Energy 88: pp Meza, J.L.C., Yildirim, M.B., Masud, A.S.M. 2007, A model for the multiperiod multiobjective power generation expansion problem IEEE Transaction on Power Systems 22(2): pp

32 Min, D. and Chung, J Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case of South Korea's energy policy Energy Policy 62: pp Min, D., Ryu, J. and Choi, D.G A long-term capacity expansion planning model for an electric power system integrating large-size renewable energy technology Computers & Operations Research In Press Noonan, F. and Gigolio, R.J Planning electric power generation: a non-linear mixed integer model employing Benders Decomposition Management Science 23(9): pp Park, S.Y., Yun, B.-Y., Yun, C.Y. Lee, D.H., Choi, D.G An analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom-up model: Focusing on the electricity generation sector in South Korea Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 53: pp Peterson, E.R A dynamic programming model for the expansion of electric power systems Management Science 20(4): pp Pisciella, P., Vespucci, M.T., Bertocchi, M.. and Zigrino, S A time consistent risk averse three-stage stochastic mixed integer optimization model for power generation capacity expansion Energy Economics 53: pp Sanghvi, A.P., Balu, N.J., Lauby, M.G Power system reliability planning practices in north America IEEE Transactions Power Systems 6(4): pp Scherer, C.R. and Joe, L Electric power system planning with explicit stochastic reserve constraint Management Science 23(9): pp Stremel, J.P Production costing for long-range generation expansion planning studies IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems PAS-101(3): Tekiner, H., Coit, D.W., and Felder, F.A Multi-period multi-objective electricity generation expansion planning problem with Monte-Carlo simulation Electric Power Systems Research, 80: pp

33 < 표 A1> 분석결과 시나리오 1 &

34 < 표 A2> 분석결과 시나리오 3 &

35 ABSTRACT The Korean government has recently decided to dramatically expand renewable energy technologies (RETs) while reducing the portion of nuclear and/or coal power generations. The large deployment of RETs could possibly hurt the power system reliability because of the unreliability of RETs. This paper proposes a model for analyzing the effects of unreliable RETs on the reliability of power supply and the level of reasonable reserve margin. Numerical analysis provides some interesting findings. First, the 7 th basic power supply plan (the 7 th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand) could fail to meet the target level of power system reliability after In addition, the power system reliability could possibly worsen in the 8 th basic power supply plan, which reduces the portion of nuclear and coal power generation and increases RETs, even though the 8 th basic power supply plan sets the installed reserve and capability margin as 20% and 18% respectively, which are higher than those in the 7 th basic power supply plan, 16% and 12% respectively. Key Words:Power generation mix, Renewable energy, Supply uncertainty, Power system reliability

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 11, Number 2, September 2012 : pp. 1~26 실물옵션을이용한해상풍력실증단지 사업의경제성평가 1

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 11, Number 2, September 2012 : pp. 1~26 실물옵션을이용한해상풍력실증단지 사업의경제성평가 1 2 3 4 5 6 ln ln 7 8 9 [ 그림 1] 해상풍력단지건설로드맵 10 11 12 13 < 표 1> 회귀분석결과 14 < 표 2> 미래현금흐름추정결과