올랑드시대 ( ) 로살펴본프랑스대외정책변천추이와향후전망 올랑드시대 ( ) 로살펴본프랑스대외정책변천추이와향후전망 노인규 * 1) Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 올랑드시대주요대외정책이슈평가 Ⅲ. 올랑드시대한불안보협력발전추이 Ⅳ. 올랑드시대평가및함의 Ⅴ. 마크

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1 노인규 * 1) Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 올랑드시대주요대외정책이슈평가 Ⅲ. 올랑드시대한불안보협력발전추이 Ⅳ. 올랑드시대평가및함의 Ⅴ. 마크롱시대프랑스대외정책전망과한불안보협력발전방향 Abstract The Developments of France s Foreign and Security Policy during the Holland Era and Future Prospects As the power transition is under way in France, this article tries to examine the developments of France s foreign and security policy during the presidency of Francois Hollande and make future prospects. During the Hollande presidency, France independently pursued its agenda in various areas while deepening its partnership with the United States. Such a trend is particularly notable in multilateral diplomacy and Africa, where France has traditionally strong influences. On the other hand, the disorder and division in the European Union, the friction with Russia coming out of the Ukraine conflict and Syrian Civil War, increased terror threats, notably from IS, and the limited resources of the military all contributed to the difficulties in the execution of France s foreign policy. It will be increasingly an important task for the new Macron administration to mitigate and manage risks and burdening factors while utilizing opportunities. Key Words : Hollande, France s Foreign and security policy, France s Africa interventions (Mali & CAR), Syrian Civil War, IS terror *,, nohinkyu@kida.re.kr

2 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) Ⅰ. 서론 5 (En Marche!, ) (Emmanuel Macron) 66% 34% (Front National) (Marine Le Pen) (Guardian, ). (Francois Hollande) 5 1) (LR, Les Republicains), (PS, Parti Socialite) (Grunstein, 2017; Guardian, ; Guardian, ). (BBC, ). NATO.,. 5 ( ),. 1) (Charles de Gaulle) 5 ( ) ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), (2017- ). 66

3 5, -...,.,, IS,.. Ⅱ. 올랑드시대주요대외정책이슈평가 1. 기회요인과성과 : 동맹및다자외교, 그리고결단력있는행보를 통해안보리상임이사국으로서의프랑스위상을제고하다 가. 미국과의범대서양동맹강화 (Nicolas Sarkozy, ) 67

4 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) (Gowan, 2017). 2, (Gildea, 2002, pp ) ) (Gowan, 2017) (Jean-Yves Le Drian) (Piser, 2016) ,, (, ). 나. 파리기후변화협약체결, 2) Obama, B. and Hollande, F. (2014, Feb 10). Obama and Hollande: France and the US enjoy a renewed alliance. Washington Post. 68

5 , (Guardian, ).,,, (Guardian, ).,., (Guardian, ). 다. 아프리카 : 짧은영광뒤의오랜숙제 (leading from behind) (Gowan, 2017).,. 69

6 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ).. (Operation Serval) (Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb) , (Guardian, ). (Operation Serval) 2014 (Operation Barkhane). 2,.. (Piser, 2017; Thuston, 2016) , (CAR: Central African Republic),, (Guardian, )

7 .,., Francafrique 3) (Piser, 2017) 라. 중동 / 마그레브 : 아랍의봄 이후새로운관계구축시도. 3) Francafrique (France) (Afrique) 1960,,,. 1960,. 71

8 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) P5+1 (New York Times, ). 2. 위험 부담요인과한계 : 유럽의분열, 러시아와의불화, IS 테러, 그리고좁혀진 기회의창 가. 임계점에놓인프랑스군 , ,000 34,000, GDP 1.5% (Gomis, 2015). 2014,. (Telegraph, ) (Charlie Hebdo) 7,500, 72

9 . 10, ,. 28,000 40,000,. (Dorrie, 2015). 나. 흔들리는유럽연합. EU EU (New York Times, )., (Grunstein, 2016a)

10 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) (Gowan, 2016a)., (Grunstein, 2016b)... 2., (Gowan, 2016a). 다. 갈림길에선프랑스 - 러시아관계., (MacDowall, 2016)., , 4 74

11 (Gowan, 2016b; Guardian, ).. (State Armaments Plan) 1,200 ( 1 5 ) EU (AFP, ) (Aleppo) ,, (Piser, 2016) , IS (Guardian, )

12 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) 라. 프랑스대외정책의한계를드러낸시리아내전 (IS: Islamic State).,, (Tertrais, 2015; Guardian, ) (Guardian, ) IS , IS, IS (Guardian, ). IS IS (Guardian, ).. IS, IS (Ghitis, 2015). 76

13 마. 테러리즘 (Charlie Hebdo)., (IS: Islamic State), IS.,,.. IS (Grunstein, 2015b; Savel, 2015)., (BBC, ). 1,500 IS 77

14 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ). (Grunstein, 2015a). IS.,. 1 (Piser, 2016b).,.. Ⅲ. 올랑드시대한불안보협력발전추이 ( , , , )., , 21 (, ) (, )

15 130...,.. (, ;, ).,,,., , % (, ) (, ) , 9 (, )

16 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) Ⅳ. 올랑드시대평가및함의,..,... (prudent but decisive interventionist) (Gowan, 2017)... 80

17 Ⅴ. 마크롱시대프랑스대외정책전망과한불안보협력발전방향 EU. (Guardian, ). IS,.,, (Guardian, )..,... - (New York Times, ). (AP, ). 3 81

18 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ). NATO , G-20 (, ). 5.,..., 논문접수 : 논문수정 : 게재확정 :

19 참고문헌. ( ).,... ( ).,,... ( ).,... ( ) ( )., 佛,... ( )., 佛... ( ).,... ( ).,... ( )., 11.. AP. (2017, May 9). On Foreign Policy, France s New Leader Is Untested, Unclear. AFP. (2015, July 31). France Settles Warship Compensation Claim With Russia. BBC. (2017, May 2). Macron v Le Pen: what are their visions for France?. (2016, July 15). Nice attack: at least 84 killed by lorry at Bastille Day celebration. Borger, J. (2012, Aug 12). Francois Hollande calls on Syrian rebels to form provisional government. Guardian. Breeden, A. (2016, June 3). Trying to Fill Void, France holds talks on Mideast peace process. New York Times. Chrisafis, A. (2017, May 8). What now for Macron? Jihadi threat and economic woes mean no honeymoon. Guardian.. (2017, May 8). Emmanuel Macron vows unity after winning French presidential election. Guardian.. (2017, April 23). It s Macron or Le Pen after first round of France s 83

20 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) presidential election. Guardian.. (2016, Dec 1). Francois Hollande will not seek re-election as the president of France. Guardian.. (2013, Jan 13). Mali: high stakes in Hollande s war. Guardian. Dorrie, P. (2015, Dec 15). France s overstretched military not enough to stabilize the Sahel. World Politics Review. Ghitis, F. (2015, Nov 19). Despite initial solidarity, Paris attacks will deepen Europe s divisions. World Politics Review. Gildea, R. (2002). France since New York: Oxford University Press, pp Gomis, B. (2015, April 2). France double downs on battle-hardened but overstretched military. World Politics Review. Gowan, R. (2017, April 17). Already forgotten in France, Hollande will be missed in the global arena. World Politics Review.. (2016, Feb 1). Strategic withdrawal leaves EU dependent on others to solve its problem. World Politics Review.. (2016, Jan 4). Diplomacy still trumps confrontation for Russia and the West. World Politics Review. Grunstein, J. (2017, Feb 8). France s next president could spell trouble for ties with the US and NATO. World Politics Review.. (2016, Dec 7). Has the EU won the battle Over austerity only to lose the war? World Politics Review.. (2016, Oct 12). The EU s best hope for survival. World Politics Review.. (2015, Nov 16). Paris attacks signal new phase in France s war against Islamic State. World Politics Review.. (2015, Jan 9). As shock fades, France must balance response to Charlie Hebdo attack. World Politics Review. Harvey, F. (2015, Dec 14). Paris climate change agreement: the world s greatest diplomatic success. Guardian.. (2015, Oct 19). France launches global drive for climate deal. Guardian. Haski, P. (2015, Nov 15). The Paris attacks will force France to change its Syria policy. Guardian. 84

21 Henley, J. (2015, Nov 16). France to intensify air-strikes against ISIS in Syria. Guardian. MacDowall, A. (Aug ). Are NATO deployments enough to deter Russia in Central and Eastern Europe? World Politics Review. MacFarquhar, N. (2017, May 8). French voters defy Putin s meddling, but you d hardly know it in Russia. New York Times. Morris, H. (2013, Jan 22). France and Germany: no longer a couple, but divorce is impossible. New York Times. Obama, B. and Hollande, F. (2014, Feb 10). Obama and Hollande: France and the US enjoy a renewed alliance. Washington Post. Piser, K. (2017, Jan 20). Under Hollande, old ills plague French policy in Africa. World Politics Review.. (2016, Oct 14). Will tensions over Syria derail France and Russia s long-term relations? World Politics Review.. (2016, July 19) After Nice, politicized security debate heightens France s partisan divide. World Politics Review.. (2016, Sept 9). As ties with Vietnam grow, France must tread carefully with China. World Politics Review. Rankin, J. (2017, May 9). Macron victory gives Brussels confidence boost over EU s future. Guardian. Samuel, H. (2014, May 23). French military heads threaten to resign over grave defense cuts. Telegraph. Savel, M. (2015, May 6). French surveillance bill tries to address evolving terror threat. World Politics Review. Tertrais, B. (2015, May 20). France s Hollande exploits political openings to deepen Gulf ties. World Politics Review. Thuston, A. (2016, April 26). West Africa s regional force against Boko Haram is a political prop. World Politics Review. Tisdall, S. (2015, Nov 23). France s anti-isis coalition: where the key countries stand. Guardian. Vidal, J. et al.. (2015, Dec 13). World leaders hail Paris climate deal as major leap for mankind. Guardian. 85

22 국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) Weaver, M. and Luhn, A. (2015, Feb 13). Ukraine ceasefire agreed at Belarus talks. Guardian Willsher, K. and Sparrow, A. (2013, Dec 6). French troops sent into Central African Republic in effort to stop bloodshed. Guardian. Willsher, K. (2013, Sept 15). Francois Hollande struggles to deflect jibes as France is left out in the cold. Guardian. 86

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