: *1 ), **2 ) 15~20%.,. -. 3 (2000 ) 15 29.,..... 1996 2.0%, 426.,,. 19805.2%(748 )1987 3~4%. 1990 1993 2.8%, 1988 2%., 1997. 19981999 6.8%, 6.3%... 1990 2.0%, 15~19 8~11%, 20~246~8%, 25~29 * **
3~5%.,,. (overshooting).. 199815~19 11.0%20.9%(86 ), 20~24 14.8%(258 ), 25~29 9.3%(268 ). 1999 2000 374 2001..,,. -.. (search effort) (intensity) (extensiveness) (job search process).,,, (zero).,,, (employment) (nonemployment)., -. 15%. 30% 20%.
(labor market attachment),,. -..,,,. - (nonemployment duration)..,.,, ().. (KLIPS) 3(2000 ), (nonemployment duration).. (sample separation)..,.. 1. (Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey). 1995 10% (21,938) 1997 2,497 5 6. 1) 5,000 15 13,738. 1) (1999), pp.5 7
,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,. 15,,,. 3 (2000 ) 13. 2000 5 1 15 30 (,,,, ).,,,.,,.,,,,,. 2. 3,302. (sample selection process) 1,615., ( ),. (1,563 ), 1,739.,. 40 1,627.,,, 1,615. < 1>. 1,615 665 (41.2%), 950 (58.8%). 1,009 (62.5%), 315 (19.5%), 291
(18.0%) 37%., 1993 548 (33.9%), 1994 536 (33.2%), 531 (32.9%). 1,915 1,299 316 (censored). 1/4 345.,. < 1> 1,615 (100.0) 1299 345 (26.6) 316 665 (41.2) 519 122 (23.5) 146 950 (58.8) 780 223 (28.6) 170 1,009 (62.5) 788 215 (27.3) 221 315 (19.5) 269 72 (26.8) 46 291 (18.0) 242 58 (24.0) 49 1993 548 (33.9) 471 117 (24.8) 77 1994~1997 536 (33.2) 473 110 (23.3) 63 1998 531 (32.9) 355 118 (33.2) 176 :, 3 (2000). 3. (nonemployment duration). ( ) ( ).,, < 2>.,., 21 -. (24 ) (18 )., 67 6, 50 6 2 33..,, 23
, 2120.., 1998 22.. 25 1998., 1993 34, 1994 1997 28, 1998 5. 2000 1998, 2. < 2> <> 0 345 (21.4) 122 (18.3) 223 (23.5) 1 3 431 (26.7) 139 (20.9) 292 (30.7) 4 6 194 (12.0) 69 (10.4) 125 (13.2) < > 215 252 110 (21.3) (25.0) (10.9) 72 90 40 (22.9) (28.6) (12.7) 58 89 44 (19.9) (30.6) (15.1) <> 117 146 24 1981 1993 (21.4) (26.6) (4.4) 110 159 33 1994 1997 (20.5) (29.7) (6.2) 118 126 137 1998 2000 (22.2) (23.7) (25.8) : ( ) 7 12 119 (7.4) 48 (7.2) 71 (7.5) 58 (5.7) 31 (9.8) 30 (10.3) 38 (6.9) 35 (6.5) 46 (8.7) 13 24 159 (9.8) 66 (9.9) 93 (9.8) 101 (10.0) 29 (9.2) 29 (10.0) 34 (6.2) 48 (9.0) 77 (14.5) (:, %) 25 367 1,615 15.5 (22.7) [316] 221 (33.2) 146 (15.4) 273 (27.1) 53 (16.8) 41 (14.1) 189 (34.5) 151 (28.2) 27 (5.1) 665 [146] 950 [170] 1009 [221] 315 [46] 291 [49] 548 [77] 536 [63] 531 [176] [ ] :, 3 (2000). 21.6 11.3 18.5 12.7 8.4 25.9 14.8 5.6
< 3> - (:, %) - 119 0 1 3 4 6 7 12 13 24 25 345 (21.4) 431 (26.7) 194 (12.0) 119 (7.4) 159 (9.8) 367 (22.7) 1,615 [316] 15.5 79 (18.4) 76 (17.7) 42 (9.8) 21 (4.9) 39 (9.1) 173 (40.2) 430 [116] 26.1 28 (23.0) 32 (26.2) 9 (7.4) 14 (11.5) 11 (9.0) 28 (23.0) 122 [10] 15.5 15 (13.3) 31 (27.4) 18 (15.9) 13 (11.5) 16 (14.2) 20 (17.7) 113 [20] 11.2 136 (23.5) 176 (30.4) 68 (11.7) 37 (6.4) 62 (10.7) 100 (17.3) 579 [105] 12.8 44 (22.8) 58 (30.1) 31 (16.1) 17 (8.8) 18 (9.3) 25 (13.0) 193 [36] 11 43 (24.2) 58 (32.6) 26 (14.6) 17 (9.6) 13 (7.3) 21 (11.8) 178 [29] 6.6 1981 1993 40 (16.4) 44 (18.0) 10 (4.1) 15 (6.1) 11 (4.5) 124 (50.8) 244 [44] 36.2 1994 1997 39 (18.0) 51 (23.5) 6 (2.8) 18 (8.3) 19 (8.8) 84 (38.7) 217 [28] 20 1998 2000 43 (21.1) 44 (21.6) 53 (26.0) 15 (7.4) 36 (17.6) 13 (6.4) 204 [74] 6 1981 1993 77 (25.3) 102 (33.6) 14 (4.6) 23 (7.6) 23 (7.6) 65 (21.4) 304 [33] 17.7 1994 1997 71 (22.3) 108 (33.9) 27 (8.5) 17 (5.3) 29 (9.1) 67 (21.0) 319 [35] 11.2 1998 2000 75 (22.9) 82 (25.1) : ( ) 84 (25.7) 31 (9.5) 41 (12.5) 14 (4.3) [ ] :, 3 (2000). 327 [102] 5.3 < 3>., 40 2 17. 13, 24.
,. 2 1981 1993 251. < 2> 2.. 1. (Type-I censoring) (duration model) T = Min(T *, c), T, T * (uncensored duration), c (censoring time). (indicator function) d = 1 () 0 ( ). Kalbfleisch Prentice (1980) t (hazard function) h(t) = lim t 0 Prob[t T < t + t T t]/ t. Prob[A] (event) A. (integrated hazards) H(t) = 0 t h(u) du. (survival function) S(t) = exp[- H(t)] = e - t 0 h ( u ) du t (failure time subdensity function) f(t) = h(t)s(t). (mixed proportional hazard model) (baseline hazard) (observed heterogeneity), (Unobserved heterogeneity),
h(t) = ho (t) exp(x )., ho (t) 0 (duration dependence). exp(x ) X j... (grouped duration data method) ho (t) = exp( k ) k- 1< t/w k, k=1, 2,..., K ho (0) = exp( o) k = 0. (step function), w (step length) K (the number of steps). 21. T =0 (mass point) ho (0). w=1 K=1212. 2. (reservation wage)..,. 1998, 1998. 1998. < 4> [1]. [1]..
[1] < 4> : h(t) = exp( k) exp(x ) 0-1.429 (0.045) - 1.634 (0.052) - 2.441 (0.053) 1-1.559 (0.050) - 1.731 (0.055) - 2.525 (0.056) 2-2.450 (0.064) - 2.612 (0.065) - 3.398 (0.065) 3-2.147 (0.061) - 2.301 (0.063) - 3.084 (0.063) 4-3.045 (0.071) - 3.192 (0.071) - 3.975 (0.071) 5-3.492 (0.073) - 3.636 (0.074) - 4.418 (0.074) 6-3.546 (0.074) - 3.684 (0.074) - 4.468 (0.074) 7-3.231 (0.073) - 3.349 (0.073) - 4.179 (0.073) 8-3.035 (0.072) - 3.147 (0.073) - 3.980 (0.073) 9-3.657 (0.075) - 3.763 (0.075) - 4.597 (0.075) 10-3.443 (0.075) - 3.541 (0.075) - 4.379 (0.075) 11-4.005 (0.076) - 4.090 (0.076) - 4.935 (0.076) 12-3.508 (0.075) - 3.592 (0.075) - 4.436 (0.075) - 0.457 (0.050) - 0.479 (0.051) 0.101 (0.056) 0.148 (0.056) - 0.002 (0.058) 0.071 (0.058) 0.010 (0.053) 0.006 (0.054) - 0.018 (0.051) - 0.025 (0.052) ( ) 0.593 (0.053) 0.602 (0.054) 1993 0.576 (0.051) 1994 1997 0.460 (0.051) 0.051 (0.012) 0.160 (0.012) : ( )
[1] 5 24.0%4.8% 3.0%., 3~4., (negative duration dependence), (scar) (turning point).,,,,.. (- ).,.,,...,., 1993 1994 1997. 3... < 5> 1998..,,,,..,
.,. < 5> 1998 h(t) = exp( k) exp(x ) 1998 0-1.448 (0.055) - 1.069 (0.065) - 1.074 (0.065) 1-1.483 (0.060) - 1.067 (0.067) - 1.072 (0.067) 2-2.457 (0.078) - 2.028 (0.080) - 2.033 (0.080) 3-2.073 (0.074) - 1.629 (0.077) - 1.633 (0.077) 4-3.157 (0.087) - 2.701 (0.088) - 2.704 (0.088) 5-3.365 (0.089) - 2.899 (0.089) - 2.904 (0.089) 6-3.514 (0.090) - 3.040 (0.090) - 3.042 (0.090) 7-3.551 (0.090) - 3.067 (0.091) - 3.070 (0.091) 8-3.108 (0.088) - 2.618 (0.088) - 2.622 (0.088) 9-3.926 (0.092) - 3.425 (0.092) - 3.429 (0.092) 10-3.700 (0.092) - 3.193 (0.092) - 3.198 (0.092) 11-4.285 (0.093) - 3.767 (0.094) - 3.770 (0.094) 12-3.754 (0.092) - 3.228 (0.092) - 3.233 (0.092) - 0.583 (0.062) - 0.581 (0.062) - 0.009 (0.070) - 0.023 (0.070) - 0.226 (0.075) - 0.246 (0.076) - 0.101 (0.066) - 0.102 (0.066) - 0.029 (0.063) - 0.028 (0.063) ( ) 0.703 (0.065) 0.699 (0.065) 1994 1997 0.045 (0.062) - 0.084 (0.022) - 0.089 (0.023) : ( ) < 6> 1998..,,.,., 1999, 2000..,. [2] 1998 98 5 24.9%5.7% 4.8%. 98 5 23.5%4.3% 3.0%.
< 6> 1998 h(t) = exp( k) exp(x ) 1998 1-1.391 (0.077) - 4.154 (0.094) - 11.079 (0.097) 2-1.732 (0.091) - 4.412 (0.101) - 11.113 (0.102) 3-2.436 (0.110) - 5.027 (0.113) - 11.536 (0.114) 4-2.309 (0.110) - 4.836 (0.113) - 11.247 (0.113) 5-2.858 (0.120) - 5.344 (0.121) - 11.706 (0.122) 6-3.799 (0.130) - 6.272 (0.130) - 12.628 (0.130) 7-3.613 (0.129) - 6.068 (0.129) - 12.429 (0.129) 8-2.574 (0.125) - 5.273 (0.126) - 11.257 (0.126) 9-2.811 (0.128) - 5.492 (0.128) - 11.446 (0.128) 10-3.036 (0.130) - 5.705 (0.130) - 11.652 (0.130) 11-2.828 (0.129) - 5.482 (0.129) - 11.424 (0.129) 12-3.341 (0.132) - 5.982 (0.132) - 11.918 (0.132) 13-2.881 (0.130) - 5.517 (0.130) - 11.440 (0.130) - 0.268 (0.090) - 0.246 (0.090) 0.350 (0.096) 0.189 (0.096) 0.355 (0.094) 0.339 (0.094) 0.189 (0.095) 0.152 (0.095) - 0.008 (0.094) 0.013 (0.094) ( ) 0.316 (0.093) 0.193 (0.093) 0.396 (0.017) 1.264 (0.017) 1998 0.447 (0.096) 2000 3.502 (0.089) : ( ) [2] 1998
. 1997.. -,.. -.. -. 3 (2000 ) -. 1~3..., (1998 ).,,.,,,. 12 12,., (good jobs, decent jobs), (bad jobs) (job offers). ( ) ( ) (competing risks model).
(accepted wage) (reservation wage)... (retrospective). -.