조사연구 sampling error of polling sites and the additional error which comes from non-response, early voting and second stage sampling error of voters in

조사연구 권 호 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.20997/sr.18.4.7 연구노트 2016 년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 Analysis of Prediction Error of the Exit Polling for 2016 National Assembly Election in Korea 1) 3) a) b) c) 주제어 대국회의원선거 예측오차 편향 투표소추출오차 사전투표 In this study, we analyze the data of the exit poll for the 20th National Assembly election in Korea. The empirical studies show that systematical positive bias of candidates affiliated to Saenuri and Theminjoo Party occurs, whereas systematic negative bias of candidates affiliated to People21 Party occurs. The total survey error in exit poll is divided by

조사연구 sampling error of polling sites and the additional error which comes from non-response, early voting and second stage sampling error of voters in each sampled polling site. Our analysis show that the additional error is lower than the sampling error of Saenuri Party. In case of Theminjoo and People21 Party, the additional error is higher than the sampling error. In addition, we separate the final prediction error into the prediction error of voters on the election day and the prediction error of early voters. We notice that the prediction error of voters on election day is higher than the prediction error of early voters. Key words: 20th National Assembly Election, prediction error, bias, sampling error, early voting Ⅰ. 서론

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석

조사연구 Ⅱ. 정당별예측오차현황 예측오차

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 표 개시도별정당별예측오차현황 단위 개 시도 선거구수 새누리당더민주당국민의당 평균예측오차 선거구수 평균예측오차 선거구수 평균예측오차 247 0.520 234 0.137 171-0.325 47 0.225 49 0.114 41-0.162 18 1.467 18-0.930 6-0.510 11 0.436 7-0.650 1 0.034 13-0.584 11 0.796 12-0.045 7-0.298 8 1.346 8-0.310 7 0.028 7 0.876 7-0.812 6 1.651 4 0.162 3-0.895 1 0.455 1-1.094 1-0.281 60 0.045 60 0.240 48-0.187 8-0.022 8 0.453 2-1.188 8 0.870 8-0.175 5-0.857 11 0.963 11 0.073 8-0.919 9-0.034 10 1.537 10-0.522 10-0.172 10-0.025 10 0.959 13 3.579 6-2.127 1-5.392 15 0.851 13 0.613 6-1.202 3 2.808 3-1.700 2-1.486

조사연구 그림 대국회의원선거시도별새누리당후보자출구조사예측오차

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 그림 대국회의원선거시도별새누리당후보자출구조사예측오차

조사연구 표 당선자예측실패선거구현황 단위 선거구 당선자예측오차 오차한계 -0.1 ±2.7-3.3 ±3.7-1.6 ±3.3-2.0 ±3.3-2.3 ±4.4-1.5 ±2.6-0.2 ±3.2-0.6 ±2.5-0.9 ±3.0-0.5 ±3.2-0.4 ±3.2-0.6 ±4.4-1.0 ±3.4-2.3 ±4.3-1.3 ±3.1-1.3 ±3.1-2.2 ±2.9 Ⅲ. 투표소추출오차와그외의추가오차

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 예측오차 투표소추출오차 추가오차

조사연구 투표소추출오차 투표소추출오차상대비율 투표소추출오차 추가오차

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 표 새누리당시도별투표소추출오차및추가오차 단위 시도 예측오차 투표소추출오차 추가오차 투표소추출오차상대비율 0.520 0.711-0.185 79.3 0.225 0.537-0.306 63.7 1.467 1.329 0.144 90.2 0.436 1.520-1.079 58.5-0.584 0.165-0.744 18.2-0.298-0.163-0.130 55.6 0.028 0.783-0.749 51.1 1.651 1.633 0.023 98.6 0.455-0.850 1.310 39.4 0.045 0.389-0.340 53.4-0.022 1.484-1.500 49.7 0.870 1.603-0.727 68.8 0.963 1.096-0.128 89.6-0.034 0.189-0.217 46.4-0.172 0.009-0.175 4.9 3.579 1.453 2.131 40.5 0.851 0.650 0.206 76.0 2.808 1.231 1.582 43.8

조사연구 표 더민주당시도별투표소추출오차및추가오차 단위 시도 예측오차 투표소추출오차 추가오차 투표소추출오차상대비율 0.137-0.802 0.945 45.9 0.114-0.442 0.584 43.1-0.930-1.223 0.297 80.4-0.650-2.148 1.377 60.9 0.796-0.784 1.584 33.1 1.346-0.157 1.453 9.8 0.876-0.861 1.743 33.1 0.162-0.703 0.870 44.7-1.094-0.190-0.900 17.4 0.240-0.428 0.673 38.9 0.453-1.910 2.369 44.6-0.175-1.802 1.631 52.5 0.073-1.401 1.479 48.7 1.537-0.152 1.811 7.8-0.025-1.162 1.140 50.5-2.127-2.102-0.022 99.0 0.613-0.715 1.333 34.9-1.700-1.158-0.538 68.3

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 표 국민의당시도별투표소추출오차및추가오차 단위 시도 예측오차 투표소추출오차 추가오차 투표소추출오차상대비율 -0.325 0.080-0.414 16.1-0.162 0.003-0.146 1.7-0.510-0.293-0.210 58.3 0.034-0.100 0.140 41.7-0.045 0.285-0.325 46.7-0.310 0.503-0.748 40.2-0.812 0.070-0.877 7.4-0.895-0.077-0.817 8.6-0.281 0.510-0.790 39.2-0.187 0.088-0.271 24.5-1.188-0.286-0.894 24.2-0.857 0.141-0.993 12.4-0.919-0.288-0.627 31.4-0.522-0.088-0.768 10.2 0.959 1.137-0.174 86.7-5.392-1.590-3.800 29.5-1.202-0.612-0.584 51.2-1.486-0.025-1.455 1.7 Ⅳ. 당일투표자및사전투표자추정에서발생하는오차비교

조사연구

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 예측오차 당일투표자예측오차 사전투표자예측오차 당일투표자상대비율 당일투표자예측오차 당일투표자예측오차 사전투표자예측오차

조사연구 표 새누리당당일투표자예측오차및사전투표자예측오차비교 단위 시도선거구수예측오차 당일투표자예측오차 사전투표자예측오차 당일투표오차상대비율 111 0.660 0.572 0.088 86.7 21 0.855 0.822 0.032 96.2 8 0.802 0.550 0.252 68.6 6 0.570-0.210 0.779 21.2 5-0.465-0.222-0.243 47.8 5-0.185-0.051-0.134 27.6 4 0.048 0.223-0.175 56.0 27 0.329 0.381-0.052 88.0 5-0.005 0.040-0.045 46.9 4 0.334 0.150 0.184 44.9 3 2.441 2.159 0.283 88.4 5-0.228-0.148-0.080 65.0 5 1.171 0.895 0.276 76.4 10 1.787 1.571 0.216 87.9 3 2.808 2.175 0.632 77.5

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석 표 더민주당당일투표자예측오차와사전투표자예측오차비교 단위 시도선거구수예측오차 당일투표자예측오차 사전투표자예측오차 당일투표오차상대비율 107 0.053 0.041 0.013 75.9 22-0.464-0.471 0.008 98.4 8-0.252-0.082-0.170 32.5 4-0.254 0.118-0.371 24.1 4 0.423 0.377 0.046 89.1 5 1.062 0.671 0.391 63.2 4 1.247 0.994 0.254 79.7 27-0.065-0.067 0.001 98.1 5 1.026 0.789 0.237 76.9 4 0.531 0.483 0.048 91.0 3-1.430-1.252-0.178 87.5 6 1.731 1.234 0.497 71.3 2-0.387 0.224-0.611 26.8 10 0.121 0.159-0.038 80.8 3-1.700-1.238-0.462 72.8

조사연구 표 국민의당당일투표자예측오차와사전투표자예측오차비교 단위 시도선거구수예측오차 당일투표자예측오차 사전투표자예측오차 당일투표오차상대비율 72-0.448-0.420-0.028 93.8 18-0.310-0.291-0.019 93.9 2-1.549-1.233-0.316 79.6 4-0.264-0.343 0.079 81.3 5 0.246-0.019 0.265 6.7 4-1.260-1.174-0.086 93.2 22-0.006-0.103 0.097 51.6 2-1.188-0.922-0.266 77.6 2-0.694-0.489-0.205 70.5 2-1.667-1.319-0.348 79.1 6-0.590-0.379-0.211 64.2 3-1.652-1.272-0.380 77.0 2-1.486-1.294-0.192 87.1 Ⅴ. 결론

년국회의원선거출구조사오차분석

조사연구 참고문헌. 2013. 2012. 14 (3): 1-17.. 2010. 2008. 11(3): 33-55.. 2007. 2006. 8 (1): 55-79.. 2005.. 6(2):1-32.. 2011. : 2010. 12(3): 25-48.. 2012. 6.2 13(3): 89-104.. 2004. 17 :. 41(1): 110-136.. 2004.. 5(2): 3-29. Martin, E.A., M.W. Traugott, and C. Kennedy. 2005. A Rewiew and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy. Public Opinion Quarterly 69(3): 342-369. < 2017/10/11, 2017/11/17, 2017/11/26>