FUTURES MARKET OUTLOOK&STRATEGY SAMSUNG FUTURES MONTHLY No. 15 / 216. 6. 29 7 브렉시트, 긴호흡으로접근하기

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15 /() () 125 12 12 99 6 96 93 9 15Y.11 15Y.12 16Y.2 16Y.4 16Y.5 115 11 24

15 99 93 87 81 () 75 14Y.1 14Y.8 15Y.3 15Y.1 16Y.5 () 6 67 74 81 88 95 2-2 -4 4 (%) 15 16~ 25

6 2-2 -6-1 1(%) 6 48 36 24 12 (bps) 13Y.1 13Y.1 14Y.7 15Y.4 16Y.1 26

4% 2% (yoy) 216($4 ) 216($5 ) 215 2 15 (%) (yoy) (yoy) % -2% -4% -6% -8% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 1 5-5 6/3 8/7 1/11 13/3 15/7 27

-9-18 -27 55 5 (%) -36-45 () 45 4 35 3 15Y.9 15Y.12 16Y.3 16Y.5 16Y.6 28

28 21 14 (%) 1 5 ( ) PBBOC net FX purchase 7-7 -5-14 -1-15 14/8 14/12 15/4 15/8 15/12 16/4 29

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4% 35.7% 3% 2% 29.2% 28.4% 14.7% 17.9% 15.1% 25.7% 15.% 1% % -1% 5.7% 8.4% -7.2% -6.6% 1.7% -5.9% -1.% -7.4% -8.7% 3.2% -4.8% -7.4% -11.1% 5.4% 5.5% 2.4% -1.4% 7.4% 1.6%.8% -4.3% -.2% -2% RBOB

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6 Concentrate Imports 7 5 Refined Output 6 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 13-5 13-11 14-5 14-11 15-5 15-11 16-5

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15, 14, 13, 14338 1354 19, 18, 18392 12, 17, 167 11, 1547 15 1, 9, 8, 9472 854 87 95 16, 15, 15676 154 1527 1547 164 162 7, Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 14, Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16

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18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Oil Rig () 14-7 15-1 15-7 16-1 98 96 94 92 9 88 86 84 82 8 15.5 15. 14.5 14.

4 35 3 14 12 1 216 215 5 25 2 15 1 8 6 4 2 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1. 18 9. 17 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 16 15 14 13 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,4 2,2 1,2 1, 216 215 5 2, 1,8 8 1,6 1,4 216 215 5 6 4 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1, 8 216 215 5 75 7 216 215 5 6 4 65 6 2 55 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14 21 ($/oz) ($/oz) 13 18 12 11 15 1 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 12 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 35 34 33 32 31 3 29 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 ($) 1 15Y.6 15Y.1 16Y.2 16Y.6

월간금융시장동향 채권 Korea United States Europe (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 12 전월말 ( 우 ) 2 (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 4 전월말 ( 우 ) 2 (bp) 변동 (%) 최근 ( 우 ) 2 전월말 ( 우 ).3 US 1Y Yield & MOVE Index (bp) MOVE INDEX US 1Y( 우 ) (%) 85 2.5 2 1.8 2 1.5 1 8 2-8 -18 1.6 1.4 1 -.3 75 7 1.5 1-28 1.2-2.5-1 -.6 65.5-38 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 1-4 3M 6M 2Y 5Y 1Y -2 3M 6M 2Y 5Y 1Y -.9 6 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 주식 Advanced Markets Emerging Markets S&P5 & VIX Index 2% % -2% -4% -6%.6% -1.6% -2.9% -4.4% 5% % 3.8% 3.2% 2.3%.5%.3% 2,2 2,1 2, S&P5 VIX( 우 ) 3 25 2-8% -1% -12% -7.9% -9.7% 영국캐나다미국호주유로존일본 -5% -1.4% 인니브라질러시아중국인도한국 1,9 1,8 16Y.2 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 15 1 환율 Advanced Markets 달러대비월간변동률 1% 7.9% Emerging Markets 달러대비월간변동률 12% 1.6% EUR/USD & EUR 3M Volatility (%) EUR/USD 변동성3M EUR/USD( 우 ) ($) 12 1.14 5% % -5% 2.2%.5%.% -.3% 8% 4% % 4.3% 3.7% 2.7% 11 1 9 1.11 1.8-1% -7.2% JPY AUD CAD 달러지수 EUR GBP -4% -.6% -.9% BRL RUB IDR KRW INR CNY 8 16Y.2 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 1.5 원자재 Energy/Agriculture 25% 23.2% 2% 15% 1% 5.3% 5% % -5% -2.2% -2.7% -3.7% -5.% -1% 천연가스대두브렌트 WTI 밀옥수수 Non-Ferrous Metal 16% 14.3% 12% 1.7% 8.6% 7.9% 8% 4.4% 4% 3.1% % 은니켈금아연알루미늄구리 CRB Index 2 CRB Index 19 18 17 16 15 16Y.2 16Y.3 16Y.4 16Y.5 16Y.6 국내외국인현 / 선물순매수동향 ( 억원 ) KOSPI 현물 ( 억원 ) KOSPI 2 선물 ( 억원 ) 채권현물 ( 계약 ) 3 년국채선물 ( 계약 ) 1 년국채선물 ( 계약 ) USD 선물 5, 5, 25, 4, - - - -5, -1, - -5, -1, 5일누적 2일누적 5 일누적 2 일누적 2, 15, 1, 5, - 3, 2, 1, - -1, 5일누적 2일누적 5 일누적 2 일누적 -5, -1, -15, 5 일누적 2 일누적 -1, -2, -3, -4, 5 일누적 2 일누적 216년 6월 29일수요일기준작성