2017.09 Vol.255 C O N T E N T S 02 06 26 58 63 78 99 104 116 120 122 M O N T H L Y P U B L I C F I N A N C E F O R U M
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13 0 13 1,007 3 1,004 (100.0) (0.0) (100.0) (100.0) (0.3) (99.7) 31 0 31 2,295 57 2,238 (100.0) (0.0) (100.0) (100.0) (2.5) (97.5) 138 9 129 10,144 875 9,269 (100.0) (6.5) (93.5) (100.0) (8.6) (91.4) 196 19 177 13,525 1,322 12,203 (100.0) (9.7) (90.3) (100.0) (9.8) (90.2) 138.5 138.5 127.9 1,800.0 122.9 345.2 316.1 342.0 1,435.1 314.2 42.0 111.1 37.2 33.3 51.1 31.7 1,407.7 1,261.5 1,243.1 43,966.7 1,115.4 9
8 6 2 460 446 14 (100.0) (75.0) (25.0) (100.0) (97.0) (3.0) 17 15 2 997 957 40 (100.0) (88.2) (11.8) (100.0) (96.0) (4.0) 66 32 34 4,433 2,620 1,813 (100.0) (48.5) (51.5) (100.0) (59.1) (40.9) 86 12 74 5,372 1,748 3,624 (100.0) (14.0) (86.0) (100.0) (32.5) (67.5) 112.5 150.0 0.0 116.7 114.6 185.7 288.2 113.3 1,600.0 344.6 173.8 4,432.5 30.3 62.5 117.6 21.2 33.3 99.9 975.0 100.0 3,600.0 1,067.8 291.9 25,785.7 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 2017.9
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400 400 628 628 628 200 200 276 276 276 221 525 525 525 370 370 370 7 7 24.4 24.4 24.4 600 821 1,799 1,799 1,799 88 88 38.7 38.7 73 21 15
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1) 2) 3) 28 2017.9
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2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 49.6 10.0 50.0 46.1 46.4 10.2 12.7 14.8 14.5 12.7 5.9 10.7 8.4 8.4 7.5 4.0 8.8 5.6 5.8 4.9 2.7 6.3 3.3 3.6 3.1 24.0 54.3 14.0 18.2 21.7 4) 30 2017.9
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50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 36 2017.9
50 40 30 20 10 70 60 50 40 30 0 20 10 10 20 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 37
250 200 150 100 50 0 50 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 38 2017.9
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2.7 2.4 1.7 1.2 6.5 6.7 16.4 24.0 42 2017.9
0.969 12% 30% 0.0256 0.0135 0.967 1.912 0.753 0.69 0.13 0.86 0.014 12) 43
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1.4 1.2 1 0.8 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 40 20 0 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 4 2 0 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 47
0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2 1.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 2.5 3 3.5 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 0 10 20 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 0 2 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 48 2017.9
2 0 10 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 0 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 49
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0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 20 10 0 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 2 0 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 51
0.2 0.25 0.18 93 85 96 7 15 4 7.1 12.6 2.0 2.9 5.1 0.8 0.43 0.76 0.13 0.54 0.95 0.16 52 2017.9
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15) 2.7% 2.4% 1.7% 1.2% 6.5% 6.7% 16.4% 24.0% 34% 34% 0.286 0.287 0.125 0.130 56 2017.9
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414.3 423.1 447.1 7.9 5.7 471.4 492.0 513.5 5.5 242.3 251.1 268.2 10.7 6.8 287.6 301.0 315.0 6.8 26.4 26.4 26.7 1.1 1.1 28.1 27.4 26.7 0.3 145.6 145.6 152.2 4.5 4.5 155.7 163.6 171.8 4.2 400.5 410.1 429.0 7.1 4.6 453.3 476.7 500.9 5.8 274.7 280.3 295.0 7.4 5.2 313.3 328.1 343.4 5.7 125.9 129.8 133.9 6.4 3.2 140.0 148.5 157.5 5.8 197.0 201.1 217.9 10.6 8.4 233.3 246.5 260.1 7.2 203.5 209.0 211.0 3.7 1.0 220.0 230.2 240.9 4.3 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.9 19.9 19.9 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.4 28.3 28.9 28.6 33.0 38.4 44.3 ( 1.7) ( 1.7) ( 1.6) ( 1.8) ( 2.0) ( 2.1) 13.7 13.0 18.1 18.0 15.3 12.5 (0.8) (0.8) (1.0) (1.0) (0.8) (0.6) 682.4 669.9 708.9 749.1 793.0 835.2 (40.4) (39.7) (39.6) (39.9) (40.3) (40.4) 4.6( 17.7.25) 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 64 2017.9
2) 3) 4) 1.3 2.0 0.7 1.6 4.3 6.9 7.1 6.1 5.5 7.2 65
5) 1.4 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.3 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 3.7% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 4.4 5.1% 3.1% 6.3% 7.2% 7.2% 19.9% 66 2017.9
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 67
400.5 429.0 471.4 492.0 513.5 5.5 129.5 146.2 159.4 172.7 188.4 9.8 57.4 64.1 68.1 72.7 75.3 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 1.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 1.6 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.0 0.7 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.4 15.1 1.5 22.1 17.7 17 16.5 16.2 7.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 0.5 40.3 43.1 45.3 47.7 50.4 5.8 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 2.3 18.1 18.9 19 19.2 19.5 1.9 63.3 69.6 74.2 77.9 81.3 6.5 6) 68 2017.9
5.9 7.5 0.5 7.9 7.4 7.5 4.1 5.5 7.0 8.5 1.0 10.7 8.3 6.4 5.8 6.8 6.0 6.5 4.6 7.1 6.3 6.2 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.8 0.7 2.1 0.9 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.8 0.8 28.9 32.3 36.5 39.6 28.3 31.9 35.8 40.1 69
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60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 50.0 30.0 40.0 25.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 73
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77.2 66.8 76.5 66.4 0.8 0.4 21.8 20.1 21.1 19.9 0.8 0.2 55.4 46.8 55.4 46.5 0 0.2 59.6 56.4 59.3 56.1 0.3 0.3 3.5 3.0 3.4 2.9 0.03 0.02 9.6 9.0 9.5 8.9 0.09 0.02 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 0.05 0.05 159.6 144.8 158.4 144.0 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 160.6 145.4 158.9 144.4 1.7 1.0 6) 89
7) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 90 2017.9
8) 9) OECD 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 91
Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10) 11) 12) 13) 92 2017.9
1,027,740 975,417 52,322 (1 2) 555 51,766 (3 4) 47,389 4,377 (5 6) 3,743 ((1) (2)) 11,588 3,913 2,325 10,000 15,331 2,680 2,495 601 633 ((3) (4)) 39 594 594 39 3,743 (7 8 9) 14) 93
15) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 4.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 5.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.3 5.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 3.7 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.9 1.5 6.0 0.7 0.0 2.2 0.9 2.4 9.9 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 1.3 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 2.5 0.6 5.1 21.9 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.8 2.8 11.7 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.1 1.9 0.5 1.9 1.2 0.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 5.6 94 2017.9
16) 1.5 0.6 3.3 0.5 1.7 0.3 1.3 0.4 3.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 17) 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.5 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.8 95
18) 2.6 (2,071) 2.7 (2,071) 3.9 (2,107) 3.7 (2,113) 1.4 (2,127) 3.2 (2,135) 2.2 (2,149) 1.8 (2,155) 2.3 (2,171) 1.8 (2,171) 294.5 304.8 2.6 0.2 315.9 329.6 1.9 0.4 291.6 304.6 2.4 0.1 24.4 25.0 0.5 0.3 21.4 24.8 0.7 0.3 96 2017.9
19) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.8 0.6 1.2 0.2 4.2 3.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 3.1 1.9 2.9 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.1 97
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Given stagnant wages for many workers soaring incomes for those at the top and strong corporate profits as well as future fiscal pressures stemming from the aging of the population and rising health care costs tax reform should adhere to these core principles: strict revenue neutrality no net tax cuts for the most well-to-do and a focus on ordinary working families. The global surge in independent fiscal councils (IFCs) raises three related questions: How can IFCs improve the conduct of fiscal policy? Are they simultaneously desirable for voters and elected policymakers? And are they resilient to changes in political conditions? We build a model in which voters cannot observe the true competence of elected policymakers. We use a model of automation to show that with the current U.S. tax system a fall in automation costs could lead to a massive rise in income inequality. This inequality can be reduced by raising marginal income tax rates and taxing robots. But this solution yields mediocre outcomes both in terms of efficiency and inequality. Tax cuts often look like free lunches for taxpayers but they eventually have to be paid for with other tax increases or spending cuts. We examine the distributional effects with and without financing of a tax plan consistent with the outline the Trump Administration produced in April. When ignoring financing the plan would be regressive most households would be better off but the highest income households would get the largest percentage boosts in after-tax income. Since the Great Financial Crisis several scandals have exposed a pervasive light on banks presence in tax havens. Taking advantage of a new database this paper provides a quantitative assessment of the importance of tax havens in international banking activity. 102 2017.9
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400.5 429.0 28.4 7.1 414.3 447.1 32.8 7.9 242.3 268.2 25.9 10.7 105
400.5 7.5 18.7 414.3 440.5 11.5 7.5 18.7 402.8 414.3 402.8 429.0 2017 2018 28.3 28.6 0.3 ( 1.7) ( 1.6) (0.1%p) 669.9 708.9 39.0 (39.7) (39.6) ( 0.1%p) 106 2017.9
4.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 1.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 107
400.5 429.0 28.4 7.1 129.5 146.2 16.7 12.9 17.1 19.2 2.1 12.4 57.4 64.1 6.7 11.7 42.9 49.6 6.6 15.4 6.9 6.3 0.6 8.2 6.9 6.8 0.1 2.0 19.5 19.6 0.1 0.9 16.0 15.9 0.1 0.7 22.1 17.7 4.4 20.0 19.6 19.6 0.02 0.1 40.3 43.1 2.8 6.9 4.6 4.8 0.2 5.2 18.1 18.9 0.8 4.2 63.3 69.6 6.3 10.0 40.7 46.0 5.2 12.9 108 2017.9
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414.3 423.1 447.1 471.4 492.0 513.5 5.5 242.3 251.1 268.2 287.6 301.0 315.0 6.8 400.5 410.1 429.0 453.3 476.7 500.9 5.8 (3.7) (6.1) (7.1) (5.7) (5.2) (5.1) 28.3 28.6 33.0 38.4 44.3 ( 1.7) ( 1.6) ( 1.8) ( 2.0) ( 2.1) 669.9 708.9 749.1 793.0 835.2 (39.7) (39.6) (39.9) (40.3) (40.4) 112 2017.9
1.0 1.2 1.4 16~ 20 1.7 17~ 21 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 17 18 19 20 21 16~ 20 40.9 40.7 40.7 40.4 40.4 40.3 17~ 21 39.7 39.9 39.6 17 18 19 20 21 113
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115 400.5 429.0 453.3 476.7 500.9 5.8 (3.7) (7.1) (5.7) (5.2) (5.1) 129.5 (4.9) 146.2 (12.9) 159.4 (9.0) 172.7 (8.3) 188.4 (9.1) 9.8 57.4 (7.9) 64.1 (11.7) 68.1 (6.2) 72.7 (6.8) 75.3 (3.6) 7.0 6.9 (4.0) 6.3 ( 8.2) 6.4 (1.6) 6.5 (1.6) 6.6 (1.5) 1.0 19.5 (1.9) 19.6 (0.9) 19.7 (0.5) 19.8 (0.5) 20.0 (1.0) 0.7 16.0 ( 1.5) 15.9 ( 0.7) 15.7 ( 1.3) 15.4 ( 1.9) 15.1 ( 1.9) 1.5 22.1 ( 6.6) 17.7 ( 20.0) 17.0 ( 4.0) 16.5 ( 2.9) 16.2 ( 1.8) 7.5 19.6 (1.2) 19.6 (0.1) 19.5 ( 0.5) 19.4 ( 0.5) 19.2 ( 1.0) 0.5 6.9 (0.8) 6.8 ( 2.0) 6.7 ( 1.5) 6.6 ( 1.5) 6.5 ( 1.5) 1.6 40.3 (4.0) 43.1 (6.9) 45.3 (5.1) 47.7 (5.3) 50.4 (5.7) 5.8 4.6 ( 2.4) 4.8 (5.2) 4.9 (2.1) 5.0 (2.0) 5.0 (0.0) 2.3 18.1 (3.7) 18.9 (4.2) 19.0 (0.6) 19.2 (1.1) 19.5 (1.6) 1.9 63.3 (6.4) 69.6 (10.0) 74.2 (6.6) 77.9 (5.0) 81.3 (4.4) 6.5
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374,436 100.0 386,573 100.0 398,053 100.0 195,283 52.2 199,509 51.6 202,541 50.9 174,970 46.7 183,379 47.4 191,946 48.2 4,183 1.1 3,685 1.0 3,566 0.9 2,425,617 2,510,768 2,681,947 13.4 13.3 12.9 14.7 14.4 14.1 117
25,978 28,314 30,094 24,094 25,401 26,161 20,945 22,933 18,643 20,666 22,164 18,444 17,683 18,610 15,776 14,897 22,709 18,862 19,722 16,390 15,017 13,085 13,174 13,810 12,045 19,475 17,028 15,139 12,155 13,252 11,659 11,845 13,198 11,611 11,086 11,792 10,529 10,826 10,168 10,704 12,349 11,130 11,591 9,419 10,257 10,175 11,433 10,284 118 2017.9
8,546 8,690 8,544 8,190 8,565 7,297 5,983 5,704 5,948 9,159 6,369 5,980 119
242.6 242.3 251.1 268.2 17.1 6.8 25.9 10.7 235.7 235.1 244.0 260.9 16.9 6.9 25.7 10.9 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.3 0.2 2.8 0.2 2.8 120 2017.9
242.6 242.3 251.1 268.2 17.1 6.8 235.7 235.1 244.0 260.9 16.9 6.9 68.5 65.7 69.6 73.0 3.4 4.9 52.1 54.0 57.3 63.1 5.8 10.2 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.2 0.1 2.1 61.8 61.5 62.6 67.3 4.8 7.7 8.9 9.0 9.0 10.1 1.1 11.9 15.3 15.4 15.4 16.4 1.0 6.6 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.4 0.4 4.8 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.3 0.2 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 0.2 4.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.0 0.9 2,425,617 2,422,618 2,510,766 2,681,947 171,181 6.8 259,329 10.7 2,357,160 2,351,450 2,439,598 2,608,818 169,220 6.9 257,368 10.9 2,061,926 2,042,866 2,131,014 2,280,459 149,445 7.0 237,593 11.6 684,970 656,873 695,793 729,810 34,017 4.9 72,937 11.1 143,477 144,808 150,155 166,749 16,594 11.1 21,941 15.2 136,833 109,819 121,097 103,717 17,380 14.4 6,102 5.6 309,938 308,592 330,887 357,069 26,182 7.9 48,477 15.7 521,154 539,535 572,678 631,061 58,383 10.2 91,526 17.0 53,501 54,422 60,262 61,519 1,257 2.1 7,097 13.0 618,282 615,353 625,598 673,474 47,876 7.7 58,121 9.4 88,813 90,103 90,103 100,781 10,678 11.9 10,678 11.9 44,681 40,174 40,174 39,985 189 0.5 189 0.5 9,058 8,840 8,840 9,361 521 5.9 521 5.9 41,467 37,566 37,566 34,468 3,098 8.2 3,098 8.2 153,030 153,782 153,782 163,902 10,120 6.6 10,120 6.6 80,454 89,906 89,906 94,178 4,272 4.8 4,272 4.8 48,808 50,747 50,747 52,478 1,731 3.4 1,731 3.4 12,939 14,149 14,149 17,801 3,652 25.8 3,652 25.8 68,457 71,168 71,168 73,129 1,961 2.8 1,961 2.8 32,087 33,338 33,338 34,941 1,603 4.8 1,603 4.8 36,370 37,830 37,830 38,188 358 0.9 358 0.9 121
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