2009-029 한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안
차례 요약 ⅰ~ⅸ
표차례 < 표 1-1> FTA 발효후효과 < 표 2-1> EU의형성과경제규모및인구 < 표 2-2> 한-EU FTA 및한-미 FTA 개관 < 표 2-3> 한-EU FTA 추진현황 < 표 2-4> 한-EU FTA 향후일정 < 표 2-5> 공산품관세철폐내용 < 표 2-6> 관세철폐주요품목및시기 < 표 2-7> 주요품목별원산지합의안및한-미 FTA와의비교 < 표 2-8> 한국의주요수출국과수출추이 21 < 표 2-9> 한국의주요수입국과수입추이 22 < 표 2-10> EU의주요수출국 22 < 표 2-11> EU의주요수입국 23 < 표 2-12> 우리나라의주요국과의교역현황 24 < 표 2-13> 한-EU 10대교역품목현황 25 < 표 2-14> 2008년우리나라지역별수출통계 25 < 표 2-15> 2008년우리나라지역별수입통계 26 < 표 2-16> 우리나라의경제권별수출액추이 26 < 표 2-17> 우리나라의경제권별수입액추이 27 < 표 2-18> 대구경북의 EU지역수출입추이 28 < 표 2-19> 대구지역경제권별수출액추이 28 < 표 2-20> 대구지역경제권별수입액추이 28 < 표 2-21> 대구지역품목별수출액추이 29 < 표 2-22> 대구지역품목별수입액추이 29 < 표 2-23> 2008년대구경북의대EU 품목별수출입추이 30 < 표 2-24> 2008년대구의대EU 품목별수출입추이 30 < 표 2-25> 경북지역품목별수출실적 32
< 표 2-26> 경북지역품목별수입실적 33 < 표 2-27> 한국의대EU 품목별수출입구조 35 < 표 3-1> 한-EU FTA의경제적효과 39 < 표 3-2> 한-EU 와한-미 FTA의경제적효과 40 < 표 3-3> 한-EU 간섬유류품목별관세율구조 42 < 표 3-4> 한-EU FTA 자동차부문관세인하안 43 그림차례 한-EU FTA 추진현황 한-EU FTA의특징
요약 FTA. FTA,. 2009 7 13 - -EU FTA. -EU FTA, -EU FTA. -EU FTA,,..,. 2003 8 FTA EU FTA -EU FTA, 2005 7 EFTA () FTA, 2006 7 9 EU i
. -EU FTA, 2007 5 -EU FTA, 2008 8 27 EU- FTA, 2008 11 12-13 -EU, 2009 3 23-24 - EU FTA 8, 2009 7 13 - -EU FTA, 10 15 (Catherine Ashton) EU EU FTA. EU 5, 7. EU 99.4%, 93.3% 3, 95.8%, 91.8% 3.,. 3~5. 3~5.. EU (25%) - FTA (2014 ) 10.,,. EU ( + ) ( ii
). 1. 45%, 50%. EU 2005 2. 2005 EU 2, EU EU 2004. 2008 584 13.8%. 2008 8,573, 1,683 19.6%, EU 984 11.5%. EU 584, 400 184. 97.7%, 2.1%. -EU 10,,,,,,,, TV,.,,,,,,,,,. 2008 EU 583 7,500, 87 3,700 15.0%, 5 13.6%. 2008 521 4,600 EU 87 3,700 16.8%. 2008 iii
45 3,400, EU 6 3,400 14.0%. 2008 476 1,200, EU 81 300 17.0%. -EU FTA GRDP 2.5% 3%, GRDP 2 6,000, 5. 2007 GRDP 88 6,439, 9.7%. -EU FTA,, IT,,,,. 7.6%.. 4-8%.,,. 10% 3 5. EU, (2.5%). iv
. -EU FTA EU 22.5%( )-25%( ) 10 EU. 1kg 7 700, EU 5 100, 4 500 FTA 4 200. -EU FTA 15%.,..,.,. RD( ),,.. -EU FTA EU, v
, R&D...,,., EU.,,,. TV, ( 對 ) EU.,,. EU FTA. LCD-TV.,.. IT IT, vi
, LED, EU. 2004 EU..,,, FTA. -EU FTA,,,..,. EU. EU., EU,,.. ABS, vii
,,,.,.,,.,,,, MICE, MISE., (, ), R&D,,,, e-. -EU FTA - FTA,. -EU FTA, - FTA., FTA viii
.,.,. FTA, -EU FTA - CEPA... - -EU FTA,.. 2 3. ix
1 제 1 장서론 1) FTA 1) 이자료는지난 8 월 13 일대구시에서개최된실무대책간담회에서 1 차발표되었고, 10 월 15 일가서명된후일부보완하여완성한것임. 2) 세계무역기구 (WTO), http://www.wto.org
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 자료 : 세계무역기구 (WTO) FTA FTA. FTA. FTA. FTA.
1 FTA. FTA (trade liberalization) FTA. EU FTA,. EU. FTA. - FTA 1 14.8 2 20.2. -EFTA FTA 2 60%. - FTA() FTA. (%) 2004. 4 60.3 35.2 4 2006. 3 28.8 14.2 2 EFTA 2006. 9 12.6 45.3 2 2007. 6 24.9 21.0 1
한-EU FTA의지역경제영향과대응방안 자료 : 외교통상부자유무역협정, http://www.fta.go.kr 2) -EU FTA EU GDP 2006 14 5 (13 2 )???. EU 2006 (485 ) (432 ). EU 2006 405 -EU FTA EU 27 - FTA. EU FTA.
1 EU EU. EU. EU. FTA. EU EU, FTA( FTA, -ASEAN, - ) EU FTA. FTA. EU 11 4~5%, EU 20 6. - FTA -ASEAN, - FTA EU, - FTA FTA. EU (test bed). EU 27 5, (GDP) 18 3,941 (2008 ). ( 對韓 ), FTA. FTA. EU FTA EU., FTA.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 2009 7 13 - -EU FTA, -EU FTA, -EU FTA..,. -EU FTA. -EU FTA,,,. 3). 3)
한 -EU FTA 추진경과및타결내용
2 제 2 장한 -EU FTA 추진경과및타결내용
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 ( :, ) GDP E C C ( 1 9 5 8. 1 ),,,,, 6 - - E C ( 1 9 6 7. 7 ), 1 ( 1 9 7 3 ) 9,, 10,414 273.3 2 ( 1 9 8 1 ) 10 10,638 288.3 3 ( 1 9 8 6 ) 12, 11,948 338.5 4 ( 1 9 9 5 ) 15,, 12,808 372.0 5 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 25,,,,,,,,, 13,503 479.9 6 ( 2 0 0 7 ) 27, 18,394(2008 ) 509.3 EU 4 9 3 G D P 14 5 13 2 G D P p. c. 29,465 44,190 8 1 2 6 485 432 301 337 F D I ( ) 405 366 4 (, /, 17 (,,,, ) /,, ),,, ISD,,,, 4.2% 3.7% () ()
2 2008 8 27 EU- FTA, 2008 11 12-13 -EU, 2009 3 23-24 - EU FTA 8, 2009 7 13 - -EU FTA. 4) 열거방식은포지티브방식으로개방대상을열거하는방식이고, 비열거방식은네거티브방식이라고하며비개방대상을열거하고나머지를개방하는방식이다.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 2 0 0 3. 8 FTA, EU FTA 2 0 0 6. 5. 1 5 2 0 0 6. 7. 1 9 2006.9.26 27 EU ( ) 10 EU FTA, EU FTA 2 0 0 6. 9. 2 7 EU FTA 2 0 0 6. 1 1. 7 FTA EU FTA 2 0 0 6. 1 1. 1 3 EU DDA FTA, FTA 2 0 0 6. 1 1. 2 4 EU FTA, 2 0 0 6. 1 2. 6 FTA, 2 0 0 6. 1 2. 1 8 EU FTA 2 0 0 7. 4. 9 FTA EU FTA 2 0 0 7. 4. 2 0 2 0 0 7. 4. 2 3,, 2006.12.22, 12.26 EU EU, ASEAN, (mandate) EU FTA 2 0 0 7. 5. 1 EU FTA 2 0 0 7. 5. 6 EU () 2 0 0 7. 5. 7 1 1 EU FTA 1 () 2007.7.16 20 2007.9.17 21 2007.10.15 19 2007.11.19 23 2008.1.28 2.1 EU FTA 2 ( ) EU FTA 3 ( ) EU FTA 4 () EU FTA 5 ( ) EU FTA 6 () EU FTA 7 ( ) EU FTA 8 () -EU FTA () -EU FTA
2 2003. 8 EU FTA FTA 2006. 7 ~ 9 2007. 5 -EU FTA 2007. 5 ~ 2009. 3 8 3, 8 2009. 7. 13. - 2009. 10. 15. (2~3 ) 2009 2010 24
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 EU 5, 7. EU 99.4%, 93.3% 3, 95.8%, 9.8% 3.,. 3 5. 3 5., /( 1,500cc ) 3, ( 1,500cc ) 5. EU / 10% 3 3.3%. 2.5%, FTA.. EU (25%) - FTA (2014 ) 10. EU 90.7% 69.4% 97.3% 76.7% 3 5.1% 22.4% 2.1% 16.6% 95.8% 91.8% 99.4% 93.3% 5 3.7% 6.9% 0.6% 6.7% 7 0.5% 1.3% - - 100% 100% 100% 100%
2 EU ( 對 EU ) (EU 對 ) 3 5 (4.5), (1.9), (2~5), (3.7), (8) (2.5~4.5), (5), (6.5), (8), (10) (6.7), (8), TV(14), TV (14), (8) 7 - (8), (8~13) (8), TV(8), (8), (8), (8) (6.5), (5~8), (8), (8), (8), (8) (6.5), (8), (8), (8) (8), (8), (8), (13), (16),,. EU ( 5) + ) ( ).,.,,. 1. 45%, 50%.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 -EU FTA - FTA, (50-63 ) (39 ) (74-81 ) (84,85,90 ) (87 ) : Yarn-forward : Fabric forward * Yarn-forward (4) (50%) (4) (50%) <> * (4) or (50%) <> * (4) or (45/50%) (45%) Yarn-forward (4/6) (4) (4/6) (55%) (45%) or (35%) 2, (4) or (50%) (4/6) ( ) EU,. - FTA. ( 2, 5 ). EU,,,,,,,,,. EU,,,. EU,,,,, ( )., - FTA. EU - FTA.
2,, - FTA 5 3. - FTA. EU., EU,. 5. EU FTA, EU FTA, 3. WTO,. (, ),.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안, UN/ECE 6). UN/ECE UN/ECE, UN/ECE. 42 34 UN/ECE, 5 (SDoC 7) ). 6) UN/ECE : United Nations Economic Commission for Europe(UN 유럽경제위원회 ) 7) SDoC : Self Declaration of Conformity
2, EU 2005 2. 2005 EU 2, EU EU 2004. 2008 584 13.8%. 2007 2008 EU (400 ), 3. EU 2002 2007 2008. 2008 EU 984 1998 EU 5 2004. 2008 184. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 132.3 143.7 172.3 150.4 162.5 193.8 253.8 284.4 325.5 371.5 422.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EU 18.2 20.2 23.4 19.6 21.7 24.9 37.8 43.7 48.5 56.0 58.4 13.7% 14.1% 13.6% 13.0% 13.4% 12.8% 14.9% 15.4% 14.9% 15.1% 13.8% 11.9 13.7 18.5 18.2 23.8 35.1 49.8 61.9 69.5 82.0 91.4 9.0% 9.5% 10.7% 12.1% 14.6% 18.1% 19.6% 21.8% 21.3% 22.1% 21.7% 22.8 29.5 37.6 31.2 32.8 34.2 42.8 41.3 43.2 45.8 46.4 17.2% 20.5% 21.8% 20.7% 20.2% 17.7% 16.9% 14.5% 13.3% 12.3% 11.0% 12.2 15.9 20.5 16.5 15.1 17.3 21.7 24.0 26.5 26.4 28.3 9.2% 11.0% 11.9% 11.0% 9.3% 8.9% 8.5% 8.4% 8.2% 7.1% 6.7%
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 (:, %) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 EU 93.3 119.8 160.5 141.1 152.1 178.8 224.5 261.2 309.4 356.8 435.3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 10.9 12.6 15.8 14.9 17.1 19.4 24.2 27.3 30.2 36.8 40.0 11.7% 10.5% 9.8% 10.6% 11.2% 10.8% 10.8% 10.4% 9.8% 10.3% 9.2% 6.5 8.9 12.8 13.3 17.4 21.9 29.6 38.6 48.6 63.0 76.9 7.0% 7.4% 8.0% 9.4% 11.4% 12.3% 13.2% 14.8% 15.7% 17.7% 17.7% 20.4 24.9 29.2 22.4 23.0 24.8 28.8 30.6 33.7 37.2 38.4 21.9% 20.8% 18.2% 15.9% 15.1% 13.9% 12.8% 11.7% 10.9% 10.4% 8.8% 16.8 24.1 31.8 26.6 29.9 36.3 46.1 48.4 51.9 56.3 61.0 18.1% 20.2% 19.8% 18.9% 19.6% 20.3% 20.6% 18.5% 16.8% 15.8% 14.0% 1995 2000 2005 (%) (%) (:, %) (%) United States 103.3 19.8 United States 237.6 27.7 United States 251.7 23.5 Switzerland 51.0 9.8 Switzerland 72.4 8.4 Switzerland 82.4 7.7 Japan 32.9 6.3 Japan 45.5 5.3 Russia 56.6 5.3 Norway 17.5 3.3 Turkey 30.7 3.6 China 51.7 4.8 Russia 16.1 3.1 Norway 26.4 3.1 Japan 43.6 4.1 Hong Kong 15.8 3.0 China 25.8 3 Turkey 41.9 3.9 China 14.7 2.8 Russia 22.5 2.6 Norway 33.8 3.2 Turkey 13.4 2.6 Canada 21.0 2.5 United Arab Emirates 25.3 2.4 South Korea 12.3 2.4 Hong Kong 20.8 2.4 Canada 23.8 2.2 Brazil 11.4 2.2 Brazil 16.8 2 Romania 21.9 2.0 Singapore 10.9 2.1 South Korea 16.7 1.9 India 21.1 2.0 Australia 10.5 2.0 Australia 15.9 1.8 Australia 20.7 1.9 Canada 10.3 2.0 Singapore 15.8 1.8 Hong Kong 20.4 1.9 Taiwan 10.1 1.9 Taiwan 15.1 1.8 South Korea 20.2 1.9
2 EU EU EU 1995, EU 2000 1.9%. 2006 228, 1.9%. 2005 EU 8 ( EU 8 ), 1995. EU EU (,, ),, 2000 2.7~2.9%. 2006 EU 383, 2.8%. 1995 2000 2005 (:, %) (%) (%) (%) United States 103.7 20.6 United States 205.6 20.6 United States 162.6 13.7 Japan 54.3 10.8 Japan 91.8 9.2 China 158.5 13.4 Switzerland 43.2 8.6 China 74.4 7.5 Russia 109.6 9.3 China 26.3 5.2 Switzerland 62.3 6.3 Japan 73.4 6.2 Norway 25.5 5.1 Russia 60.9 6.1 Norway 67.1 5.7 Russia 21.5 4.3 Norway 47.2 4.7 Switzerland 66.1 5.6 Taiwan 11.8 2.3 Taiwan 28.3 2.8 South Korea 33.9 2.9 Canada 11.7 2.3 South Korea 26.7 2.7 Turkey 33.6 2.8 South Korea 10.9 2.2 Canada 18.9 1.9 Taiwan 23.8 2 Brazil 10.8 2.1 Brazil 18.4 1.8 Brazil 23.5 2 Turkey 9.2 1.8 Malaysia 18.3 1.8 Saudi Arabia 22.6 1.9 Malaysia 9.2 1.8 Turkey 18.2 1.8 Libyan 19.8 1.7 Saudi Arabia 8.8 1.8 Singapore 17.4 1.7 India 18.9 1.6
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 2008 8,573, 1,683 19.6%, EU 984 11.5%. EU 584, 400 184. 97.7%, 2.1%. () () 8,573 (100.0%) 4,220 4,353-133 1,683 (19.6%) 914 769 145 EU 984 (11.5%) 584 400 184 847 (9.9%) 464 384 80 892 (10.4%) 283 610-327 -EU 10,,,,,,,, TV,.,,,,,,,,,. 8) (2007), p. 5.
2 ( ) () ( ) () (0~2.7%) 100 17.2% (8%) 16 4.0% (0%) 75 12.8% (0%) 16 3.9% (10%) 52 8.9% (8%) 15 3.9% (3.7%) 39 6.7% (8%) 15 3.9% (1.7~4.5%) 24 4.1% (6.5%) 12 3.1% (0%) 19 3.3% (0%) 12 3.0% (3.5~4.7%) 16 2.7% (6.5%) 10 2.4% (3.5~3.7%) 16 2.7% (8%) 9 2.4% TV(14%) 14 2.5% (8%) 9 2.1% (2.9~6.7%) 14 2.3% (8%) 8 2.0% 369 63.3% 123 30.7% 584 100.0% 400 100.0% 16, 2008 4,220 732, 45 3,404 1.1%, 476 1,211 11.3%. 2008 2009(1 ~06 ) 422,007,328 13.6 165,668,195-22.6 1 78,802,425 23.2 29,915,954-26.1 2 56,872,901 55.8 28,665,710 11 3 61,083,814-5.4 22,468,204-31.4 4 47,612,115 5.2 18,494,493-23.9 5 42,936,207-10.2 16,560,403-24 6 33,296,374 23.4 14,085,662-19.1 7 29,037,019 32.1 10,122,056-28.5 8 20,512,944-2 7,130,346-32 9 12,859,729 26.6 4,733,139-24.9 10 9,412,071-7.2 3,814,210-23.9 11 9,213,140 3.3 3,780,745-21.2 12 6,842,081 7.7 2,351,752-35.2 13 4,534,037 12.2 1,769,728-24.7 14 2,989,513 15.8 1,236,190-19.6 15 1,423,528 26.5 503,602-24.1 16 83,299 44 35,901-2.4 17 4,496,132 8,067.9 100-100
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 2008 2009(1 ~06 ) 435,274,737 22 144,572,269-34.5 1 87,320,745 26.1 33,567,953-24.5 2 79,251,876 16.6 27,810,101-33.8 3 70,580,371 27.8 20,104,402-43.9 4 32,049,155 44.6 13,051,428-15.1 5 45,517,389 44.7 11,374,180-49.6 6 29,498,706 22.4 10,988,754-22.7 7 29,556,113 10.8 8,513,633-43.8 8 21,365,485-18.3 6,265,222-40.9 9 15,037,424 33.3 4,778,045-36 10 8,298,768 10 2,299,869-48.3 11 4,877,044-2.2 1,752,812-35.4 12 4,103,871 34 1,492,840-26.8 13 2,754,306-2.1 1,109,843-21.1 14 3,058,806 7.4 953,909-41.1 15 1,408,853 47 424,133-33.6 16 201,627 11.4 85,108-19.3 17 394,197 118.7 36 -, EU 2008 583 7,475, 4.3%. 2009 229 2,062 24.2%. 2008 EU 399 8,075 8.6%. 2008 2009(1 ~06 ) 422,007,328 13.6 165,668,195-22.6 290,575,066 18.7 116,631,454-20.4 A P E C 278,617,756 10.6 105,515,890-26.9 211,507,957 11.3 80,960,306-26.8 OECD 153,158,517 4.7 57,427,072-27 131,432,262 3.8 49,036,740-27.3 116,039,786 15.9 44,800,743-26.1 EU 58,374,752 4.3 22,920,624-24.2 N A F T A 59,523,793 4.9 22,731,534-24.4 EC 57,501,858 4.7 22,723,829-23.6 ASEAN 49,282,849 27.2 17,850,274-29.5 OPEC 31,240,745 29 12,338,323-18.7 GCC 15,034,460 37.4 6,190,535-9.6 SAPTA 11,571,851 42.8 4,617,280-14.8 (CIS) 13,636,980 20.5 3,026,103-58.1 CER 5,996,124 11.2 2,595,881-13.5 MERCOSUR 6,697,028 62.8 2,013,985-38.2 COMESA 3,553,810 81.4 1,176,946-9.9 EFTA 2,521,169 124.6 654,473-48.8 CACM 1,010,348-1.9
2 / 2008 2009(1 ~06 ) 435,274,737 22 144,572,269-34.5 A P E C 268,025,733 15.2 94,086,784-31.4 269,082,942 30.6 84,362,740-38.1 216,936,350 15.6 76,994,471-31.2 OECD 167,849,853 10.2 60,882,060-28.7 166,191,794 10.2 60,209,528-28.8 96,232,033 24.3 30,839,232-35.9 OPEC 104,293,974 47.1 27,401,658-47.8 GCC 85,520,697 55.1 21,581,588-49 ASEAN 40,917,467 23.6 15,882,053-26.2 N A F T A 43,817,589 5.6 14,789,773-34.2 EU 39,980,746 8.6 14,642,702-29.3 EC 39,709,758 8.2 14,554,679-29.1 CER 19,121,979 32.8 7,337,085-13.9 (CIS) 9,825,152 22.7 2,717,506-41.6 MERCOSUR 5,340,989 49.7 2,347,735 12.3 EFTA 4,137,742 16.4 2,019,921-3 SAPTA 7,441,943 40.3 1,821,247-51.4 COMESA 3,590,354 18.3 1,134,370-45.9 CACM 228,419-13.9 156,573 10 2008 521 4,600 EU 87 3,700 16.8%. 2008 45 3,400, EU 6 3,400 14.0%. 2008 476 1,200, EU 81 300 17.0%. 2008 EU 583 7,500, 87 3,700 15.0%, 5 13.6%.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 EU EU 2005 3,333 2,208 278 322 38,709 22,789 8,813 1,480 2006 3,546 2,608 367 360 39,517 24,455 8,687 1,761 2007 4,040 2,849 557 366 45,266 26,167 9,143 2,079 2008 4,534 3,059 634 390 47,612 21,365 8,103 1,811 2009(1~5 ) 1,446 781 208 88 15,202 5,199 2,316 391 2008 EU ( 2-18) 6 3,394 13.0%. 2007 2008(1 ~12 ) OPEC 345,524 22.6 435,482 26 OECD 1,877,355 17 2,051,142 9.3 ASEAN 380,316 13.8 428,544 12.7 A P E C 2,753,608 8 3,024,872 9.9 N A F T A 788,307 8.2 786,770-0.2 (CIS) 100,259 43.4 107,480 7.2 1,990,207 9.9 2,268,631 14 EU 557,126 51.8 633,937 13 2007 2008(1 ~12 ) OPEC 32,437 17.3 48,521 49.6 OECD 1,273,089-1.1 1,381,679 8.5 ASEAN 156,652 17.2 193,825 23.7 A P E C 2,387,563 11 2,560,464 7.2 N A F T A 273,579 31.8 288,225 5.4 (CIS) 18,320 4 17,366-5.2 2,353,531 7 2,521,568 7.1 EU 365,842 1.6 389,981 6.6
2 2007 2008 (1 ~12 ) 4,039,853 13.9 4,534,037 12.2 1,572,178 15.7 1,792,141 14 1,064,331 3.4 1,117,660 5 623,889 42.6 703,802 12.8 250,971 8.2 342,817 36.6 250,978 17.6 300,278 19.6 115,218 14.7 119,370 3.6 101,625-11.6 106,664 5 38,015 0.2 28,267-25.6 20,979 12 21,560 2.8 1,667-28.1 1,478-11.3 2007 2008(1 ~12 ) 2,849,208 9.2 3,058,806 7.4 700,323 2.2 747,093 6.7 514,827 32.1 624,921 21.4 490,271 10.8 506,203 3.3 421,924-7.2 442,387 4.9 303,965 5.1 276,132-9.2 216,891 19.6 266,538 22.9 71,752 10.5 72,206 0.6 71,517 21.3 70,384-1.6 26,614 35.2 32,758 23.1 31,123 37 20,183-35.1
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 10,241 100% 2,969 100% 7,272 5-24 8-19 347 3.4 56 1.9 291 152 1.5 6 0.3 146 (,) 195 1.9 50 1.6 145 995 9.7 668 22.5 327 162 1.6 28 0.9 134 833 8.1 640 21.6 193 6,036 58.9 372 12.5 5,664 2008 EU ( 2-23) 2 8,349,,,,,. 633,935 100 389,642 100 244,293 9 986 0.1 9 4,488 1.2-3,502 10 35-10 1,171 0.3-1,136 6 21,492 3.4 2 80,438 20.7-58,946 7 6,836 1.1 8 5,656 1.5 1,180 3 73,165 11.6 5 7,793 2.0 65,372 59,863 9.5 842 0.2 59,021 (,) 13,302 2.1 6,951 1.8 6,351 8 3,708 0.6 6 7,243 1.9-3,535 5 34,394 5.4 4 39,225 9.8-4,831 1 283,488 44.7 1 187,431 48.1 96,057 55,480 8.8 15,205 3.9 40,275 228,008 35.9 172,226 44.2 55,782 2 158,029 24.9 3 50,505 13.0 107,524 4 51,802 8.2 7 5,692 1.5 46,110
2 2008 2008 12 476 1,211 5%, (46%), (33%), (8%). 10%. (57%), (22%), (10%). 2008 213 6,548 18%. 20%, 69%. 93%, 92%,. (25%), (19%), (7%), (7%).
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 2007 2008 ( %) 100,580-127,711-27 242,657 1 226,144 - -7 379,690 1 424,538 1 12 351,261 1 477,095 1 36 426,481 1 500,778 1 17 38,372-21,523 - -44 482,840 1 394,678 1-18 485,892 1 525,858 1 8 2,164,536 5 2,344,470 5 8 1,254,558 3 1,685,957 4 34 1,086,195 2 1,011,535 2-7 1,201,884 3 1,378,543 3 15 1,351,610 3 3,419,384 7 153 1,052,497 2 1,989,550 4 89 342,775 1 444,127 1 30 1,164,161 3 935,073 2-20 943,294 2 1,241,596 3 32,142,416 16 10,419,808 22 46 5,569,510 12 3,721,723 8-33 2,504,190 6 2,484,944 5-1 165,969-174,015-5 16,190,207 36 15,940,546 33-2 TV 872,727 2 905,112 2 4 1,073,027 2 1,046,109 2-3 412,772 1 374,077 1-9 3,067,162 7 2,340,662 5-24 29,855,564 66 26,987,188 57-10 833,056 2 975,056 2 17 2,576,785 6 3,570,160 7 39 3,409,841 8 4,545,216 10 33 844,551 2 745,314 2-12 120,518-155,166-29 965,069 2 900,480 2-7 130,943-375,141 1 186 42,758,391 94 44,913,790 94 5 45,266,164 100 47,612,115 100 5
2 2007 2008 ( %) (, ) 148,746 1 257,656 1 73 ( ) 172,368 1 190,910 1 11 ( ) 410,572 2 312,101 1-24 ( ) 123,492 0 113,751 1-8 855,178 3 874,418 4 2 1,044,245 4 2,630,833 12 152 33,622 0 42,646 0 27 1,266,949 5 2,139,478 10 69 1,760,105 7 1,152,289 5-35 925,806 4 876,847 4-5, 36,962 0 47,393 0 28 29,168 0 25,881 0-11 15,757 0 8,552 0-46 66,509 0 90,347 0 36 12,102 0 6,210 0-49 194,961 1 165,312 1-15 86,143 0 85,128 0-1 34,143 0 32,171 0-6 1,534,270 6 1,424,022 7-7 1,794,720 7 2,211,104 10 23 1,740,760 7 2,650,086 12 52 631,733 2 647,191 3 2 495,188 2 95,140 0-81 658,251 3 612,184 3-7 673,948 3 895,996 4 33 (, ) 1,187,128 5 1,226,983 6 3 14,222,470 54 17,065,793 80 20 180,707 1 182,737 1 1 27,549 0 31,755 0 15 61,947 0 50,834 0-18, 515,354 2 398,409 2-23 879,650 3 996,989 5 13 1,506,725 6 782,960 4-48 2,776,657 11 235,219 1-92 4,253,672 16 302,324 1-93 611,388 2 162,203 1-73 91,383 0 87,210 0-5 () 101,103 0 130,827 1 29 82,994 0 63,807 0-23 11,089,129 42 3,425,274 16-69 26,166,777 100 21,365,485 100-18
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 EU (MTI 2 ), EU,,, 71.2%.,,,,. EU,,,,,,,,,,. 2007 1,,,,.,,,,..
2 MTI ( :, %) 55,982 100.0 36,824 100.0 19,158 74 1 18,415 32.9 1 4,436 12.0 13,979 81 2 11,419 20.4 3 3,073 8.3 8,346 83 3 6,861 12.3 8 2,008 5.5 4,853 82 4 3,138 5.6 16 464 1.3 2,674 72 5 2,471 4.4 4 2,409 6.5 62 61 6 2,423 4.3 6 2,325 6.3 98 71 7 1,623 2.9 5 2,392 6.5-769 21 8 1,150 2.1 11 1,046 2.8 104 13 9 1,054 1.9 19 392 1.1 662 32 10 922 1.6 24 175 0.5 747 75 11 783 1.4 9 1,589 4.3-806 43 12 568 1.0 23 231 0.6 337 22 13 514 0.9 2 3,785 10.3-3,271 31 14 470 0.8 22 277 0.8 193 44 15 323 0.6 15 575 1.6-252 79 16 313 0.6 14 751 2.0-438 84 (heavy electric) 17 267 0.5 10 1,413 3.8-1,146 62 18 238 0.4 12 1,011 2.7-773 41 19 222 0.4 33 81 0.2 141 42 20 213 0.4 31 89 0.2 124 85 21 177 29 100 0.3 77 73 22 170 0.3 7 2,302 6.3-2,132 11 23 121 0.2 18 458 1.2-372 29 24 112 0.2 13 789 2.1-677 4 25 107 0.2 - - - - 24 26 105 0.2 17 462 1.3-357 25 27 92 0.2 21 336 0.9-244 94 28 86 0.2 28 124 0.3-38 51 29 86 0.2 20 377 1.0-291 55 30 68 0.1 42 39 0.1 29
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향
3 제 3 장한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향 -EU FTA GDP 2.02 3.08%, 1.28 3.59%, 3.08%. 9) GDP 2.02%-3.08% 3.08% 1.28-3.59% 64.7 110.4 64.7 98.26 215. 89 30 1,200 59 7,060-11 4,500 35 (2005) -EU FTA,. -EU FTA GDP 2.02%, 3.08%. 1 2.16%, 2.96%.. 2.62%, 4.47%, 3.81%, 4.92%. -EU FTA 9) 김흥종, 한 -EU FTA 의경제적효과분석과정책적대응방안, 대외경제정책연구원, 2006. 1. 한국경제연구원, FTA 의경제적효과분석을위한 KERI-CGE 모형개발연구, 2009. 1. 삼성경제연구소, 한 -EU FTA 의주요타결내용과시사점, 2009. 7. 13.
한-EU FTA의지역경제영향과대응방안.., -EU FTA GDP 15.7, 24.0, 1 48, 59 7. < 3-2> CGE, 50%, ( III).. EU 15 10 FTA 2004. EU FTA FTA GDP, FTA. -EU EU+ -U EU+ GDP 1.26% 1.28% 2.83% 6.01% 5.97% 7.61% 58 40 112 222 209 277 10 8 8 3 22 6 43 3 33 6 55 3 10) Copenhagen Economics(2007) 보고서는유럽연합 (EU25) 과한국과의무역자유화의잠재적조치에대한영향을분석하였다. 최근의 GTAP(Global Trade Analysis Project) 데이터베이스를포함한세계무역의연산일반균형모델 (CGE) 을사용하여한 -EU FTA 의 2 가지시나리오를분석하고그결과를완전한자유무역협정시얻을수있는잠재적최대효과와비교하였다.
3 -EU FTA GRDP 2.5% 3%, GRDP 2 6,000, 5. 11) 2007 GRDP 88 6,439, 9.7%. -EU FTA -EU FTA,. -EU FTA.,, IT,,,,. -EU FTA, 7.6%.. EU. 4-8% 11) 2007 년지역별 GRDP 를기준으로추정하고, 고용유발효과는 2003 년권역별산업연관모형에의해추정함.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안.,,. EU 0-5 2-8 2-5 0-8 0-5 0-8 0-5 8 3.8-5 8 3-7.2 13 3.2-8 13 8 10 4-8 2-8 8 8-10 6.5-8 10 4-8 8 3-8 10 / 6.3-12 13/8-13 0-12 9.7 -EU FTA,. 10% 3 5. EU, (2.5%).. (10%) 1 300
3. 4.5%..,. EU, EU,. EU 1.5l 8% 5 5 10% 3 1.5l 8% 3 10% 1.5l SUV 5 8% * 5 10% 10%~22% 5 3 5~20 10% 3 22% 5 20 10% 10% 10~16% 8%() 4.5%() 94% 3~19% ( 5% 3 ) 주 : * 는투싼, 스포티지, 싼타페, 쏘렌토등이해당자료 : 대구광역시, 한 -EU FTA 영향과대응방안, 2009. 7. 17, p. 23. -EU FTA, IT. TV,,. 12-14% TV TV,, DVD, CD, VCR,,
한-EU FTA의지역경제영향과대응방안. ()., FTA.. 1-2%, TV LCD. FTA. 2004 -EU FTA. 7.2% 4.2%.,,,,. (ABS, PET),,,,, EU. EU,. EU,,.
3 ABS,, PS,,,, PC, PP.,. EU (FTA).. 2009 (EU) 69%, 50%. 2009 1~6 (4 8,507t) EU 69%(3 3,233t). 1 1,477 67%. EU 6,713t (6,009t), (5,439t), (5,310t), (3,357t). 2004 FTA (1 778t), (2 350t), (1 888t), (258t)..EU FTA EU 22.5%( )-25%( ) 10 EU. 1kg 7 700, EU 5 100, 4 500 FTA 4 200. 2009, EU 5,451t (1 825t). 3,079 56%. EU (1 909t) (1 650t), (1 434t), (298t), (121t),
한-EU FTA의지역경제영향과대응방안 (22t), (16t), (1t). (2 328t) (1 437t), (877t), (276t), (245t). -EU FTA 15%.,.. 2009 7 EU 13%.,,,,,,..,,,,,.. EU 46.5%.
한 -EU FTA 의산업별대응방안
4 제 4 장한 -EU FTA 의산업별대응방안 -EU FTA...,,,.,,,.,.,.,,, (, ),. FTA.
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안... -EU FTA(). -EU FTA..
4,.,. R&D( ),,..,,,,,. -EU FTA EU,, R&D..,. FTA. FTA. EU 27,
한-EU FTA의지역경제영향과대응방안..., EU.,..,,.,,.,.,,,. TV, ( 對 ) EU.,,. EU FTA.
4 LCD-TV.,.. IT IT,, LED, EU. 2004 EU..,,, FTA. -EU FTA,,,..,. ( ). EU
한-EU FTA의지역경제영향과대응방안. EU., EU,,.,.,.. ABS, 12).,,,.,.,,. 12) KOTRA, 한 수출유망품목및활용방안
4 EU,,.,,, EU. 79.0% (20.5%) GRDP.,,,, MICE, MISE 13)., (, ), R&D,,,, e-. 13) MICE(Meeting, Incentive, Convention and Exhibition) 의약자로기업회의, 보상관광, 국제회의, 전시회연계산업등을나타냄.
결론
5 제 5 장결론 -EU FTA - FTA,. -EU FTA, - FTA., FTA. 3, 4,.,. FTA, -EU FTA - CEPA... FTA TF. FTA., KOTRA. -EU FTA. CE(CE EC ) REACH(, ), RoHS( ), WEFE(, ).
한 -EU FTA 의지역경제영향과대응방안 - -EU FTA,.. 2 3.
참고문헌
연구자소개 (Lee, Choon-Keun) ( )