에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 1~35 탈원전 탈석탄 신재생에너지확대정책에따른 신규전원구성의수급안정성평가 - 1 -
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< 표 1> 몬테카를로시뮬레이션기반의 LOLP 추정방법 - 11 -
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< 표 2> 시나리오정의 < 표 3> 시나리오 2 에서활용될전원구성계획을위해추가적으로 필요한발전설비용량및도입년도 - 15 -
< 표 4> 시나리오 3 에서활용될, 제 8 차전력수급기본계획 에서제안될 것으로예상되는수요전망과전원구성계획 - 16 -
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[ 그림 1] 2014 년부하지속곡선 - 18 -
< 표 5> 첨두부하시전력수요변동성 ( 전력수요의경험적확률분포 ) < 표 6> 전통적전원별기술특성치자료 - 19 -
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< 표 7> 신재생에너지및집단에너지기술특성치자료 < 표 8> 신재생에너지부하지속곡선단계별평균출력량 ( 이용률 ) < 표 9> 첨두부하시풍력 / 태양광출력량변동성 ( 신재생에너지발전량의경험적확률분포 ) - 21 -
< 표 10> 온실가스및환경오염물질배출계수 - 22 -
< 표 11> 예비율과공급신뢰도분석 - 23 -
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[ 그림 2] 설비예비율과공급예비율의차이 < 표 12> 발전비용분석 1) ( 단위 : 십억원 ) - 25 -
< 표 13> 온실가스및환경오염물질배출량분석 ( 연평균 ) - 26 -
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접수일 (2017 년 10 월 18 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 11 월 9 일 ) - 28 -
,,,,. 2013.,,. 2011. :,, 10(2), 169-186. 2014. 4. 2015. 7. 2017.,,. 2015. 7,,. 2012.,,,. 2009. RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard),, 58(3), 467-477,,,,,,. 2013. I -. 2014. (http://epsis.kpx.or.kr). 2016. 2015,. 2012.,, 37(3), 135-149,,,,,,. 2015. :,,,,,,,. 2014. - 29 -
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Min, D. and Chung, J. 2013. Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case of South Korea's energy policy Energy Policy 62: pp1544-1552 Min, D., Ryu, J. and Choi, D.G. 2017. A long-term capacity expansion planning model for an electric power system integrating large-size renewable energy technology Computers & Operations Research In Press Noonan, F. and Gigolio, R.J. 1977. Planning electric power generation: a non-linear mixed integer model employing Benders Decomposition Management Science 23(9): pp946-956 Park, S.Y., Yun, B.-Y., Yun, C.Y. Lee, D.H., Choi, D.G. 2016. An analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom-up model: Focusing on the electricity generation sector in South Korea Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 53: pp319-329 Peterson, E.R. 1973. A dynamic programming model for the expansion of electric power systems Management Science 20(4): pp656-664 Pisciella, P., Vespucci, M.T., Bertocchi, M.. and Zigrino, S. 2016. A time consistent risk averse three-stage stochastic mixed integer optimization model for power generation capacity expansion Energy Economics 53: pp203-211 Sanghvi, A.P., Balu, N.J., Lauby, M.G. 1991. Power system reliability planning practices in north America IEEE Transactions Power Systems 6(4): pp1485-1492 Scherer, C.R. and Joe, L. 1977. Electric power system planning with explicit stochastic reserve constraint Management Science 23(9): pp978-985 Stremel, J.P. 1982. Production costing for long-range generation expansion planning studies IEEE Transaction on Power Apparatus and Systems PAS-101(3): 526-536 Tekiner, H., Coit, D.W., and Felder, F.A. 2010. Multi-period multi-objective electricity generation expansion planning problem with Monte-Carlo simulation Electric Power Systems Research, 80: pp1394-1405 - 32 -
< 표 A1> 분석결과 시나리오 1 & 2-33 -
< 표 A2> 분석결과 시나리오 3 & 4-34 -
ABSTRACT The Korean government has recently decided to dramatically expand renewable energy technologies (RETs) while reducing the portion of nuclear and/or coal power generations. The large deployment of RETs could possibly hurt the power system reliability because of the unreliability of RETs. This paper proposes a model for analyzing the effects of unreliable RETs on the reliability of power supply and the level of reasonable reserve margin. Numerical analysis provides some interesting findings. First, the 7 th basic power supply plan (the 7 th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand) could fail to meet the target level of power system reliability after 2024. In addition, the power system reliability could possibly worsen in the 8 th basic power supply plan, which reduces the portion of nuclear and coal power generation and increases RETs, even though the 8 th basic power supply plan sets the installed reserve and capability margin as 20% and 18% respectively, which are higher than those in the 7 th basic power supply plan, 16% and 12% respectively. Key Words:Power generation mix, Renewable energy, Supply uncertainty, Power system reliability - 35 -