노인규 * 1) Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 올랑드시대주요대외정책이슈평가 Ⅲ. 올랑드시대한불안보협력발전추이 Ⅳ. 올랑드시대평가및함의 Ⅴ. 마크롱시대프랑스대외정책전망과한불안보협력발전방향 Abstract The Developments of France s Foreign and Security Policy during the Holland Era and Future Prospects As the power transition is under way in France, this article tries to examine the developments of France s foreign and security policy during the presidency of Francois Hollande and make future prospects. During the Hollande presidency, France independently pursued its agenda in various areas while deepening its partnership with the United States. Such a trend is particularly notable in multilateral diplomacy and Africa, where France has traditionally strong influences. On the other hand, the disorder and division in the European Union, the friction with Russia coming out of the Ukraine conflict and Syrian Civil War, increased terror threats, notably from IS, and the limited resources of the military all contributed to the difficulties in the execution of France s foreign policy. It will be increasingly an important task for the new Macron administration to mitigate and manage risks and burdening factors while utilizing opportunities. Key Words : Hollande, France s Foreign and security policy, France s Africa interventions (Mali & CAR), Syrian Civil War, IS terror *,, nohinkyu@kida.re.kr
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) Ⅰ. 서론 5 (En Marche!, ) (Emmanuel Macron) 66% 34% (Front National) (Marine Le Pen) (Guardian, 2017. 5. 8). (Francois Hollande) 5 1) (LR, Les Republicains), 4 23 1 (PS, Parti Socialite) (Grunstein, 2017; Guardian, 2017. 4. 4; Guardian, 2016. 12. 1). (BBC, 2017. 5. 2). NATO.,. 5 (2012-17),. 1) 1958. 1958 5. 2 (Charles de Gaulle) 5 (1958-1969) (1969-1974), (1974-1981), (1981-1995), (1995-2007), (2007-2012), (2012-2017), (2017- ). 66
5, -...,.,, IS,.. Ⅱ. 올랑드시대주요대외정책이슈평가 1. 기회요인과성과 : 동맹및다자외교, 그리고결단력있는행보를 통해안보리상임이사국으로서의프랑스위상을제고하다 가. 미국과의범대서양동맹강화 (Nicolas Sarkozy, 2007-2012) 67
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) (Gowan, 2017). 2, (Gildea, 2002, pp. 245-278). 2011 2014... 2014 2. 2) (Gowan, 2017).. 2016 (Jean-Yves Le Drian) (Piser, 2016).. 2017 4,, (, 2017. 3. 21). 나. 파리기후변화협약체결, 2) Obama, B. and Hollande, F. (2014, Feb 10). Obama and Hollande: France and the US enjoy a renewed alliance. Washington Post. 68
. 2009. 2017 5 2015 12, 92. 2009 (Guardian, 2015. 10. 19).,,, (Guardian, 2015. 12. 14).,., (Guardian, 2015. 12. 13). 다. 아프리카 : 짧은영광뒤의오랜숙제 (leading from behind) 2010. (Gowan, 2017).,. 69
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ).. (Operation Serval) (Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb). 2013 1, (Guardian, 2013. 1. 13). (Operation Serval) 2014 (Operation Barkhane). 2,.. (Piser, 2017; Thuston, 2016). 2013 12, (CAR: Central African Republic),, 2016 12 (Guardian, 2013. 12. 6). 2017-70
.,., Francafrique 3) (Piser, 2017)...... 라. 중동 / 마그레브 : 아랍의봄 이후새로운관계구축시도. 3) Francafrique (France) (Afrique) 1960,,,. 1960,. 71
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ).. 2.. P5+1 (New York Times, 2016. 6. 3). 2. 위험 부담요인과한계 : 유럽의분열, 러시아와의불화, IS 테러, 그리고좁혀진 기회의창 가. 임계점에놓인프랑스군. 2 2013, 2013 54,000 34,000, GDP 1.5% (Gomis, 2015). 2014,. (Telegraph, 2014. 5. 23). 2015 1 (Charlie Hebdo) 7,500, 72
. 10,000 2013,. 28,000 40,000,. (Dorrie, 2015). 나. 흔들리는유럽연합. EU EU (New York Times, 2013. 1. 22)., (Grunstein, 2016a). 2015.. 73
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) (Gowan, 2016a)., (Grunstein, 2016b)... 2., (Gowan, 2016a). 다. 갈림길에선프랑스 - 러시아관계., (MacDowall, 2016).,. 2015 1 2, 4 74
(Gowan, 2016b; Guardian, 2015. 2. 13).. (State Armaments Plan) 1,200 ( 1 5 ) EU (AFP, 2015. 7. 31).. 2016 (Aleppo). 2016 10,, (Piser, 2016).... 2015 11 130, IS (Guardian, 2015. 11. 23). -. 75
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) 라. 프랑스대외정책의한계를드러낸시리아내전. 2014 (IS: Islamic State).,, (Tertrais, 2015; Guardian, 2012. 8. 12). 2013 9 (Guardian, 2013. 9. 15). 2014 IS. 2015 10, IS, 2015 11 IS (Guardian, 2015. 11. 16). IS IS (Guardian, 2015. 11. 15).. IS, IS (Ghitis, 2015). 76
. 2015 9. 마. 테러리즘 2015 1 (Charlie Hebdo).,. 2015 1 7 13. 2015 11 130. 2015 11. (IS: Islamic State), IS.,,.. IS (Grunstein, 2015b; Savel, 2015)., 2016 7 86 430 (BBC, 2016. 7. 15). 1,500 IS 77
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ). (Grunstein, 2015a). IS.,. 1 (Piser, 2016b).,.. Ⅲ. 올랑드시대한불안보협력발전추이 2012 2017 4 (2013. 11, 2014. 9, 2015. 11, 2016. 6)., 21 130. 15 2015 11, 21 (, 2015. 11. 4). 21. 2016 6 130 (, 2016. 6. 4). 21 78
130...,.. (, 2015. 11. 4;, 2016. 6. 4).,,,.,. 2015 11, 2030 37% (, 2015. 11. 4).. 2015 21 2016 3 (, 2016. 3. 24). 2016 6, 9 (, 2016. 6. 14). 4. 79
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ) Ⅳ. 올랑드시대평가및함의,..,... (prudent but decisive interventionist) (Gowan, 2017)... 80
Ⅴ. 마크롱시대프랑스대외정책전망과한불안보협력발전방향 EU. (Guardian, 2017. 5. 9). IS,.,, (Guardian, 2017. 5. 8)..,... - (New York Times, 2017. 5. 8). (AP, 2017. 5. 9). 3 81
국방정책연구제 33 권제 2 호 2017 년여름 ( 통권제 116 호 ). NATO.. - -. 20., G-20 (, 2017. 5. 29). 5.,...,. - 4. 논문접수 : 2017 5 31 논문수정 : 2017 7 3 게재확정 : 2017 7 5 82
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